Iceman
3* Buffalo
VEGAS RUNNER
vegas-runner | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
393 Stanford -2.0 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 394 UCLA
Analysis:
** 2* WAGER **
Well, when I gave this out on the Podcast...Stanford was actually getting +1.5, and had opened at +2.5...
Since I have already been informed that the "Outfits" are most likely not finished getting down on Stanford, I wanted to get this out to my Subscribers before it gets to -3...because even though I believe that still isn't enough for UCLA to cover...the Bottom Line is,we always need to work at getting the best of the number...
We will also most likely be using Stanford in a Teaser Bet as well, because I had intentions of making this a 3* if it would have stayed at UCLA -1.5 or even at a PK...But with the Teaser bet, we can still attempt to extract even more Profit out of this solid play...VR
vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Triple-Dime Bet
926 TAM (-140) Sportsbetting.com vs 925 BOS
Analysis:
**** ALCS GAME 6 : 4* GAME of the MONTH ****
(Shields vs Beckett)
Before I get to some details concerning this wager, I wanted to add that I highly suggest waiting until as close to game-time as possible...because the books that I have just returned from visiting, down on the Strip are getting a lot of action on the Red Sox...and the managers I spoke with all believe that it will continue and force them to drop the line some more...I went ahead and Uploaded the Bet now because I already had confirmed my work, and with so much football to deal with on Saturday...there really was no reason to wait any longer, since I am able to instruct you to wait for the best price...
With that out of the way, let me get right to it...For starters, I am finally glad that we are able to back the team I believed would be moving on to represent the AL in the World Series...More importantly, I believe that this price shows us exactly how the oddsmakers feel about Game 6 because offering +145 when this line was first posted is much higher than the Rays had been for Game 1 (Opened -106) & Game 2 (Opened -108)...And I have bet for sharps long enough to know that usually, the oddsmakers and later the bookmakers, definately don't want to be offering high "Plus Money" on the dog, since that is who they are almost always looking to back...So that is a very telling sign when trying to analyze the market and it's reaction to the action...
Next, I really believe that the oddsmakers are also aware that teams in this spot have done extremely well historically...Going "7-2" (78%) in Game 6 when returning home with a 3-2 lead...for break even price of -355...
Now that we looked at the market, as well as a little history, let's break down the match-up a bit...
Tampa Bay has gone "60-25" (71%), for a break even price at HOME of -245...They are also "9-2" (82%) vs Boston at HOME, for a break-even price of OVER -400...Next we see that Boston is a 50% Road Team at best...but that drops much lower when looking at how they have played on an "Artificial Surface" (7-17 for 29%)...and an even worse "3-12" (20%), when playing inside a Dome, like they will be doing on Saturday Night...
Looking at the starting pitching, I found that Maddon's plan of moving Shields to Game 6, rather than start Game 5 will be huge for Tampa..."Big Game James" as he's been named by his teamates has definately earned this right to close it out at home...He has gone "10-3" at home, while his Team has gone "15-4" (79%), which means we could have laid -375 on him each time out at HOME and still have turned a Profit...
He lost Game 1, but pitched extremely well and that should be a huge lift for his confidence...and the biggest stat that I think will be the difference is his 1.02 WHIP...Because without base-runners, we've seen that Boston just don't have the fire-power clicking to beat this team...
His opponent, taking the mound for the Red Sox will be Josh Beckett...and believe me, nobody has been a bigger fan of this kid than myself, because he has come through for me so many times in the past...But that was when he was 100% healthy, which is obviously not the case right now...Taking a look at his current form we find that his club has lost the last "5" times he's taken the mound, and his velocity is really down, which is huge for his style of pitching which is to "overwhelm" hitters...He has allowed "16" earned runs over his last 3 starts, and that is not good news when you are facing a clud who is on the verge of breaking records for runs scored in a 7 game series...Finally, Beckett has only lasted more than 6 inn, "1" time over his L/7 Starts...
And when we go to the bull-pen, once again the advantage has to go once again to Tampa Bay, especially playing at home...
Now, we can go on forever uncovering stats and trends to support the Rays side...and more importantly, we see that win or lose...we are definately backing the team with a huge "Value" edge, based on what all the %'s I've shown above dictate as a break-even price...
But putting all of that analytical thinking to the side, and simply looking at this game...I truely believe that the Rays have shown that at this point and time, they have far too many weapons on offense for Boston to beat them...and that come-back win they had on Thursday had to take so much out of them, that if and when then fall behind in this one, it will be extremely difficult to reproduce that kind of spark....
With such a huge Home Field Edge, and Tampa proving they are for real...Let's go ahead and take a bigger position than normal for Game 6, and see if the Rays can get to the World Series...and allow us to cash a nice ALCS 4* GAME OF THE MONTH ticket along the way...VR
RDS
Football: Boise St -25 >.5*, teaser Boise St. -18 w/over 45 1*
Hockey: Rangers 1*
Columbus over 5 1*
pod Buffalo 1.25*
Ottawa 1*
SJ @pk .5*
Rocco
Buffalo
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