Futures vs matchups, which do you play most?

[AussieVamp2]

golf I would not call an 'American' sport in this discussion, something that is in danger of being on tv elsewhere occasionally with international interest, unlike baseball, american football, etc.

 

[AussieVamp2]

this, of course, does not make sense in that context :-

--
The problem with futures is that 20 value plays don't mean squat if none are winners
--

Now, if talking about 60/1 or 40/1 golfers you will obviously get long losing streaks simple basic probability. 3 out of 100 at 40/1 is a lot more than a 10% return.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Now,

As simple probability will also say you will get some very nice extensive losing streaks even if you are a good handicapper of that stuff, then each way betting does make sense from a psychological and mathematical risk of ruin, particularly with the 1/4 odds for top 5 places around.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Baseball underdogs makes sense, yes, have not bet anything remotely close to a baseball favorite this year and doing very nicely thanks.

Do not see a lot of people talking about basketball and football moneyline underdogs - a pointspread underdog is still an 'odds-on' bet, even if sensible.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Yes, I have seen higher than 10% returns on other sports, have even done it myself. Might happen sometimes on American stuff, but they tend to adjust - cf NHL 2 years ago with new rules, that was badly done - they fixed it last year though.

Now if you are one of those 60% handicapper types you can do it as well, but you are also hampered by the sameness of all the lines, in general, and 10/11 is almos talways 10/11, you are not going to suddenly get 11/10 on a game very often, barring looking in the occasional right place.

 

[buckeye]

AV2,
I guess we differ on my interpretation of "American sports". I would classify golf as an American sport, not exclusively American, but neither are baseball or basketball or tennis, or many others. I thought you were indicating there are other "non American" sports like soccer or cricket or rugby or some other sport that Vegas doesn't line ( i.e. that you don't normally see lines/betting on in Vegas or other Vegas-style outs ) that are easier to beat. I guess you were talking about fb, baseball, and basketball only - my mistake!

"-- Because American sports lines are very good, is why. It would be very hard to get more than that in general as supposed to something else."

I'm looking to learn here. What "non American" sports are easier to beat with soft lines? Many have been posting that NASCAR and golf may be soft. As I stated above, I consider these American sports since you can easily get down on them in Vegas, are there others that you feel are much easier to beat that Vegas doesn't carry?

"--- No, it doesn't mean that, but you yourself said you do not want to bet on them 'because they might not win'?"

I don't get your point. Any bet "might not win" and I don't remember writing that. I wrote that you go "0-fer" betting WIN bets many weeks. I prefer to bet matchups that allow me to "grind out" winnings, or at least some winners, each week as a better investment of my gambling $. I use some modest parlay and a few small futures on occasion as well, but I advocate "grinding it out" as a little less roller-coaster than primarily betting futures. That doesn't mean I won't bet dogs and my few small futures aren't on longshots, in fact they often are, I just don't choose to invest the bulk of my bankroll on bets that are historically worse performers for me. It is a matter of taste and logic and money management.

As for my comment about 20 longshot value plays. I meant that when the field is strong, when the "A" players abound, betting longshots with value makes less sense since Tiger, Phil, Vijay and the other elites with lower prices win the vast majority of those "strong field" events. Now this week's PGA event is a much better spot to look at longshots with value, IMO. If you have stats that contradict my assumptions, I'd be happy to learn from them.

This is less of a constructive debate and more a semantic duel - so I'll relent - I must be wrong!

GL2U

 

[AussieVamp2]

Originally posted by buckeye:
AV2,
I guess we differ on my interpretation of "American sports". I would classify golf as an American sport, not exclusively American, but neither are baseball or basketball or tennis, or many others.

-- Tennis is of course an international sport, too, and 'American' places offer little coverage of it from a punting point of view, in general, according to the tennis types and from what I have seen. It is also true basketball is played and is bettable elsewhere, but college basketball? Most of the world would not know it exists, for example. The NBA of course is different, but you still aren't too likely to see it on tv in a pub. Ice hockey is a different one, as there is European interest there, and other bettable leagues. Then again, less 'American' interest in betting on that when you are reading as well.


I thought you were indicating there are other "non American" sports like soccer or cricket or rugby or some other sport that Vegas doesn't line ( i.e. that you don't normally see lines/betting on in Vegas or other Vegas-style outs ) that are easier to beat. I guess you were talking about fb, baseball, and basketball only - my mistake!

-- There are, for me. Have never tried the NBA, really, that looks hard without lots of week, the college stuff, not as much, baseball of course is nice value and the NHL is decent as well.


"-- Because American sports lines are very good, is why. It would be very hard to get more than that in general as supposed to something else."

I'm looking to learn here. What "non American" sports are easier to beat with soft lines? Many have been posting that NASCAR and golf may be soft. As I stated above, I consider these American sports since you can easily get down on them in Vegas, are there others that you feel are much easier to beat that Vegas doesn't carry?

-- Depends what you mean by easier? Easier for me, you, in general, or for a particular group of people? As an example, footy might be easy for me, and impossible for you as you know nothing about it, and I don't know what iron you should use from 200 metres, so golf matchups not going to work for me. Vegas has hardly any betting options if you are talking internationall, so plenty of other things to bet on.

"--- No, it doesn't mean that, but you yourself said you do not want to bet on them 'because they might not win'?"

I don't get your point. Any bet "might not win" and I don't remember writing that. I wrote that you go "0-fer" betting WIN bets many weeks. I prefer to bet matchups that allow me to "grind out" winnings, or at least some winners, each week as a better investment of my gambling $. I use some modest parlay and a few small futures on occasion as well, but I advocate "grinding it out" as a little less roller-coaster than primarily betting futures.

-- Well if golf was all I knew I might not bet on futures only either, or if it was all I bet on, but it isn't, but really only golf I bet on is futures.

That doesn't mean I won't bet dogs and my few small futures aren't on longshots, in fact they often are, I just don't choose to invest the bulk of my bankroll on bets that are historically worse performers for me.

-- That makes sense, but if you are a golf expert don't see why you would not be able to do ok to some degree?

It is a matter of taste and logic and money management.

As for my comment about 20 longshot value plays. I meant that when the field is strong, when the "A" players abound, betting longshots with value makes less sense since Tiger, Phil, Vijay and the other elites with lower prices win the vast majority of those "strong field" events.

-- Doesn't matter, if the players are value? (A big favorite in a game should win most of the time, too) Not your 350/1 no hopers of course - what percentage of the time does the top 3 in the market win a tournament? Plenty of Tiger out markets these days as well.

Now this week's PGA event is a much better spot to look at longshots with value, IMO. If you have stats that contradict my assumptions, I'd be happy to learn from them.

-- Did a little bit of this but not really that easy to find odds on players, will have to see where I put the spreadsheet, too, average odds of winners is not in the single figure range though, more like 40/1 I think from what I looked at.

This is less of a constructive debate and more a semantic duel - so I'll relent - I must be wrong!

GL2U

 

[AussieVamp2]

a list of possible things to bet on, and of course this is by no means comprehensive

National Football League
National Basketball Association
National Hockey League
Major League Soccer
Canadian Football League
Arena Football League
Women's National Basketball Association
Australian Football League
National Rugby League
One Day Cricket
Test Cricket
Super Twelves
National Basketball League
National Soccer League
English Premier League
Portugese League
English First Division
Scottish Premier League
Italian Serie A
Spanish Primera Liga
German Bundesliga
French Le Championnat
Dutch Eredivisie
Belgian League
Turkish 1. Liga
Danish Superliga
Swiss National League
Swedish Allsvenskan
Norwegian Eliteserien
Finnish Veikkausliga
Israel Premier League
Gaelic Athletic Association - Football
Gaelic Athletic Association - Hurling
Champions League
Austrian Bundesliga
Icelandic Landssimadeild
English Second Division
Italian Serie B
English Third Division
German Bundesliga 2
Spanish Segunda Division
French Second Division
Scottish First Division
Scottish Second Division
Scottish Third Division
Danish First Division
Austrian First Division
Swiss National League B
Norwegian First Division
Swedish Superettan
Norwegian Second Division
Finnish First Division
Finnish Ice Hockey
Swedish Ice Hockey
Russian Premier League
Polish 1. Liga
Czech League
Greek League
Japanese J-League
Brazilian Copa Joao Havelange
Argentinian League
Mexican League
Uruguayan League
German Ice Hockey
Swiss Ice Hockey
Bolivian League
Chilean League
Paraguayan League
Peruvian League
Singapore S-League
Finnish First Division Ice Hockey
Norwegian Ice Hockey
Czech Ice Hockey
Slovak Ice Hockey
Ecuadorian League
Danish Ice Hockey
Russian Ice Hockey
English Super League
English Rugby Union
New Zealand NPC
Norwegian Women's Handball
Norwegian Men's Handball
Danish Women's Handball
Danish Men's Handball
Currie Cup
Hungarian League
English Football Conference
Norwegian Third Division
Norwegian Toppserien
Danish Second Division
Korean K-League
Slovenian League
Copa Libertadores
Irish Premier League
Danish Third Division
Danish Fourth Division
Swedish Second Division
UEFA Cup
Intertoto Cup
Croatian League
Slovakian League
German Regionalliga
Copa Merconorte
Copa Mercosur
Israeli Leunit League
National Netball League
International Rugby League
International Rugby Union
National Hockey League European
Austrian Ice Hockey
Dutch First Division
Greek A-1 League
Italian Basketball League
Israeli Basketball League
NSW Club Rugby
Brazilian Carioca
Brazilian Paulista
Swedish Womens Allsvenskan
Malaysian Premier League
Danish Womens Soccer

 

[buckeye]

AV2,
I was curious about what "non American" sports you find have weaker lines than American sports. I meant, in general and for a capper who is good at those sports. I didn't ask for a huge rundown of every sport imaginable, I don't care about all the different leagues. Just wondered which you have beaten and you find have soft lines. It can't be all of those. You don't seem to want to give a straight answer to this question - I have now asked it of you three times.

I would guess that someone who wanted to invest the time and effort in baseball would do better than most sports since the vig is so low ( 10 cent lines or less can be had )and there are so many games during the season to find value in. I only cap sports I enjoy playing and/or watching a great deal ( golf, college hoops, some fb but I admittedly suck at capping it and play only small stakes for amusement ). With the hold on futures being so high, and the vig on many other sports being far worse than spread betting with its 20 cent lines, I am curious what sports you feel offer good value, in general. Just trying to learn something here!

I am not looking to bet other sports, just curious about what's out there that others find success in internationally. I am most familiar with Vegas lines and sports and would like to hear what lies beyond that others find attractive, and WHY.

GL

 

[AussieVamp2]

Originally posted by buckeye:
AV2,
I was curious about what "non American" sports you find have weaker lines than American sports. I meant, in general and for a capper who is good at those sports. I didn't ask for a huge rundown of every sport imaginable, I don't care about all the different leagues.

-- In general, or for someone who is good at it, or knows what they are doing? There is a difference. That is not every sport imaginable either.


Just wondered which you have beaten and you find have soft lines. It can't be all of those. You don't seem to want to give a straight answer to this question - I have now asked it of you three times.


-- Can't say I have ever won money on the CFL, or on handball. Russian hockey is not particularly easy to bet on, and Finnish 1st division hockey is a bit whacky. Have never bet on the Currie Cup, not being in South Africa, Bolivian soccer not really offered, and Paraguay and Ecuador only was briefly.

I would guess that someone who wanted to invest the time and effort in baseball would do better than most sports since the vig is so low ( 10 cent lines or less can be had )and there are so many games during the season to find value in. I only cap sports I enjoy playing and/or watching a great deal ( golf, college hoops, some fb but I admittedly suck at capping it and play only small stakes for amusement ).

-- As far as betting goes, could care less if I enjoy watching it or not, prefer not to watch it. Studied NFL stats etc. extensively so could do ok in that if I could be bothered or had the time, but likely not as well as something else, given the obsessive amounts of time spent handicapping it by linesmakers, etc. college football is easier. You said you are 'not interested in leagues' or only bet on what you like to watch, so why does it matter?


With the hold on futures being so high, and the vig on many other sports being far worse than spread betting with its 20 cent lines, I am curious what sports you feel offer good value, in general. Just trying to learn something here!

-- There is value all over the place, which can become obfuscated by worrying about the market percentage of something.

I am not looking to bet other sports, just curious about what's out there that others find success in internationally. I am most familiar with Vegas lines and sports and would like to hear what lies beyond that others find attractive, and WHY.

GL

Everything is of interest, bettingwise, it is just a matter of time - don't have time to look at tennis, for example.

Variety and opportunity is important and what works.

WHY can partly be work, I had done perhaps 15 years dabbling sports statistics before ever betting on working on that professionally. Add programming, database programming and mathematical study to that, then certain things become of interest, then a few years reading about betting stuff. The AFL for example have worked on, worked with coaches, done statistical studies, etc., that no bookmaker will ever have seen barring knowing someone.

Whether all that means something is 'easy' or has soft lines, good question. Still people out there with the talent to win without any of that sort of work.

As far as succeeding internationally goes there will be winners in everything, and yes, people will even get booted for doing too well on rugby that is -120 either way.

 

[buckeye]

AV2,
You are somehow able to write very long posts with an uncanny knack at dancing around actually saying anything worthwhile. Sorry for asking!

 

[AussieVamp2]

what was not clear?

the answer is 'all of them'

barring the exceptions I mentioned that I don't know about like handball as never really tried

some people like athletics betting too it - and you will notice the complete lack of it offered by most during the Olympics - but never tried that much other than then, either.

A smart professional once said, look for things that others are not paying as much attention to.

 

[AussieVamp2]

No motor racing on the list either, but have done happily in Nascar, although not so exciting this year as have not paid as much attention due to time

Formula 1 I do like to watch, so betting on that can spoil it a bit, and never really tried 500cc/other classes, or supercars, rallies, etc., but again, more opportunity....... speedway popular some places too, speaking of betting

 

[AussieVamp2]

and explaining why for somethings would not be possible as one of them is 'feel'

others would be an overly technical mathematical description and/or computer/technical - which would need a fancier keyboard for equations

others are delving into more fundamental issues - but, if you had worked some things out, would you tell everyone?

 

[AussieVamp2]

for instance if you knew that

golfers win their matchups because of stat x differentials y% of the time and hence it will make money, would you tell everyone? Especially if it seemed no-on else knew.

Interesting question.

 

[AussieVamp2]

can't say one way or the other on darts, snooker or backgammon, either

 

[AussieVamp2]

so, is anything not answered still?

 

[Cartman88]

AV2,

Got anything on Jamaican Snail Racing ????

Seriously though you mentioned you had some done some statistical studies on AFL. Would be really interested in finding out some more on this. I'll catch up with you on MSN sometime.

[This message has been edited by Cartman88 (edited 07-10-2001).]

 

[buckeye]

AV2,
I am impressed, if I am understanding correctly, you have shown a profit in betting all of those sports and leagues on your long list ( it is hard for me to fathom you didn't understand I wasn't being literal when I referred to it as "all sports imaginable" or when I said all of your posts refer to American as derogatory - sheesh ) except the few ( seems like about a dozen ) you have cited as exceptions. I didn't think anyone could be that good spread so thin. Considering most experts estimate 98% or more of all bettors lose, it is a remarkable task to win at so many sports/leagues - VERY IMPRESSIVE INDEED!

Lest you misunderstand my statement about capping sports that I watch, let me explain. I don't do stupid things like bet all the tv games so I can watch them with a vested interest. What I mean is that I have been watching those sports on tv for 30+ years and have gleaned some insight through watching all of that coverage and hearing the commentators analysis and following the coaches, players, recruiting, etc. I never thought I'd one day use any of it to bet with, but I do. I also watch games/tourneys in part to gain insight on potential angles for the next round or next game - not just hoping to win a bet on the current one. Sometimes half time bets are in order, or "interactive" trades or other means to take advantage of what I have observed during the game. I don't watch every game I bet on, and certainly don't bet every game I watch, but seeing how a guy is playing or how they finish is sometimes more telling than just looking at their scorecard or the final score. While I use a decent amount of stats in capping the sports I cap, I also feel that other angles/knowledge can be leveraged outside of pure stats and numbers, some "feel" involved which can best be gained by watching the game. Some use only stats and don't care about watching games, I watch some of them and try to gain more insight for future plays - as well as just watching as a fan - as I always have! To me, it is only logical to bet the sports I know and am familiar with.

As for my motivations for asking, I assure you I am just curious. I get the impression you are worried that I am setting you up for ridicule. I am not, trust me. I truly would like to learn something - I have learned very little from statements like "any sport is beatable". Which do you consider "most beatable"? I understand that inside knowledge, like you seem to have on AFL, would help anyone and make any sport beatable. I am asking what sports, other than golf, NASCAR, and baseball, do you consider to be the easiest to beat without inside info - just purely statistically if you prefer? I am not asking you to reveal some magic secret formula, just teach me something! I have shared a lot of tips, techniques, angles, etc. both in forums and privately with many people. I am not paranoid that others will "ruin" lines based on them or that bookies will use them to sharpen their lines. Some angles/stats I would rather books not know, but I doubt most of what is shared has that big an impact - overall.

As a stats guy, I assume you understand why I rail about vig so much. At -120 each way you must win 54.55% of your picks just to break even, at 20 cents its 52.38, at 10 cents its 51.22. Some may think it trivial, but considering that many think picking 55% is impressive, and at 60% you are a "god", that couple percent difference can be "very" significant to your ROI. Obviously I am talking spread betting like fb and hoops here, but the same "relative" concept can be extrapolated to any sport and $lines, futures, etc. The higher the hold/vig, the better you must be to counteract/offset it. Not that it is impossible, just relatively more difficult - all other things being equal ( which they obviously won't be for all punters ).

GL

 

[AussieVamp2]

Originally posted by Cartman88:
AV2,

Got anything on Jamaican Snail Racing ????

Seriously though you mentioned you had some done some statistical studies on AFL. Would be really interested in finding out some more on this. I'll catch up with you on MSN sometime.

[This message has been edited by Cartman88 (edited 07-10-2001).]

Nope. No cycling, either, to come up with another one. Or any of the varieties of skiing, or biathlon! As a few more bettable ones. No floorball, or bandy, or curling, either. Although the first two might be worth looking at (floorball/bandy)