A couple real Jekyll & Hyde teams here. Ga Tech lost at home to Bowling Green, but beat UNC & Miami, both of which were ranked #17 at the time. UCF lost 5 straight, including to a bad Baylor team, but they smoked #15 Ok St 45-3.
This is GT's first bowl game since 2018.
Not HUGE losses for either team to the portal. Ga Tech is missing Kyle Kennard who led the team with 6 sacks and has the 2nd-most tackles on the team by anyone named "Kyle." They are also missing starting CB Kenan Johnson. UCF is missing starting CB Corey Thornton. Ok, that's kind of a big loss, as he led the team with 9 PDs. The next guy has 3. They also lost S Wilson and CB Marshall in the Georgia game. I can't find any indication if they are expected to play.
For GT offensively, King has put up some decent #s (averaging 7.8 yards/att and 26 TDs) but he also threw 15 INTs. He is a serious running threat, averaging 6 yards/carry. GT has a very solid ground game, led by RB Haynes, who also averaged 6 yards/carry. I think Freshman WR Eric Singleton will be the biggest beneficiary of UCF's depleted secondary. He led the team with 47 receptions, and he averaged a solid 15 yards/catch. UCF was susceptible to the run game, allowing 4.84 yards/rush. Only 20 teams were worse. The biggest obstacle to GT moving the ball is going to be King throwing INTs.
UCF's offense is led by LA Clippers Center Mason Plumlee. At 6'10", 254 lbs, he's a nightmare for opposing tacklers. *pauses* I'm being told the UCF qb is a different Plumlee. Sorry for the confusion. This Plumlee leads a strong ground game that is 5th in the country, averaging 5.65 yards/carry. RJ Harvey is the main guy, averaging 6.1 yards/carry. Georgia Tech is awful against the run, allowing 5.41 yards/carry. Only 3 teams were worse. Plumlee put up ok numbers throwing the ball, completing 63.9% of his passes and averaging 9.1 yards/att, which is terrific. But he only has 13 TDs to go with 8 INTs. GT has picked off 13 passes this year, tied for 21st in the country. That's one of the few bright spots for a bad defense that allows 30.5 points/game. In fact, GT is tied for 15th in the country with 23 TO's gained.
Really, about the only way either of these defenses are getting a stop is if they get a TO.
Big edge in the kicking game for GT. Freshman Birr took over in September and went 14-of-16 with his only misses over 40. However, he didn't attempt anything over 50 yards, so we don't know what kind of range he has. UCF has really struggled kicking FGs. Colton Boomer, which is a great name, made 12 of 19. He has a miss from under 30 and 2 more misses from under 40. On the plus side, he did make one from 55.
Two similar teams with good ground games and weak defenses. I think there's definitely some value with the Yellowjackets. And I may have lost any value on the Over, with it up to 67.5 now. It's kinda tough playing the Over when it's this high, with 2 teams that are going to run the ball a lot. But I still think it's the way to go. Maybe we'll get a defensive score or two. Or even OT.
GT (ML) 6 to win 10.2
Over (67.5) 4 units
This is GT's first bowl game since 2018.
Not HUGE losses for either team to the portal. Ga Tech is missing Kyle Kennard who led the team with 6 sacks and has the 2nd-most tackles on the team by anyone named "Kyle." They are also missing starting CB Kenan Johnson. UCF is missing starting CB Corey Thornton. Ok, that's kind of a big loss, as he led the team with 9 PDs. The next guy has 3. They also lost S Wilson and CB Marshall in the Georgia game. I can't find any indication if they are expected to play.
For GT offensively, King has put up some decent #s (averaging 7.8 yards/att and 26 TDs) but he also threw 15 INTs. He is a serious running threat, averaging 6 yards/carry. GT has a very solid ground game, led by RB Haynes, who also averaged 6 yards/carry. I think Freshman WR Eric Singleton will be the biggest beneficiary of UCF's depleted secondary. He led the team with 47 receptions, and he averaged a solid 15 yards/catch. UCF was susceptible to the run game, allowing 4.84 yards/rush. Only 20 teams were worse. The biggest obstacle to GT moving the ball is going to be King throwing INTs.
UCF's offense is led by LA Clippers Center Mason Plumlee. At 6'10", 254 lbs, he's a nightmare for opposing tacklers. *pauses* I'm being told the UCF qb is a different Plumlee. Sorry for the confusion. This Plumlee leads a strong ground game that is 5th in the country, averaging 5.65 yards/carry. RJ Harvey is the main guy, averaging 6.1 yards/carry. Georgia Tech is awful against the run, allowing 5.41 yards/carry. Only 3 teams were worse. Plumlee put up ok numbers throwing the ball, completing 63.9% of his passes and averaging 9.1 yards/att, which is terrific. But he only has 13 TDs to go with 8 INTs. GT has picked off 13 passes this year, tied for 21st in the country. That's one of the few bright spots for a bad defense that allows 30.5 points/game. In fact, GT is tied for 15th in the country with 23 TO's gained.
Really, about the only way either of these defenses are getting a stop is if they get a TO.
Big edge in the kicking game for GT. Freshman Birr took over in September and went 14-of-16 with his only misses over 40. However, he didn't attempt anything over 50 yards, so we don't know what kind of range he has. UCF has really struggled kicking FGs. Colton Boomer, which is a great name, made 12 of 19. He has a miss from under 30 and 2 more misses from under 40. On the plus side, he did make one from 55.
Two similar teams with good ground games and weak defenses. I think there's definitely some value with the Yellowjackets. And I may have lost any value on the Over, with it up to 67.5 now. It's kinda tough playing the Over when it's this high, with 2 teams that are going to run the ball a lot. But I still think it's the way to go. Maybe we'll get a defensive score or two. Or even OT.
GT (ML) 6 to win 10.2
Over (67.5) 4 units
