Give me your input:what teams will win 1 game in series starting today?

[BuffaloBill]

If you guys continue to chase after a team has been swept, then you are going to get killed.

Why don't you do the math before you start chasing, and you will see what I mean.

The chase system is good, but if you keep chasing a team who is on a losing streak, then eventually your bankroll will get wiped out.

Sometimes, you just have to take the loss and move on.

I know it doesn't happen often, but there are times when a team will get swept at home 2 series in a row.

Then what will you do? Take out a lone from the bank so you can keep chasing?

The system works well if you just take a few losses here and there. You just can't chase forever as some people have suggested.

 

[RUNVUS]

buffalo bill thats what i keep saying..you cant chase forever on a losing team..if you go back to last season the yanks and wsox division there were 233 series wins and 33 loses..unless you chase a home team til they win this system wont work..if you chase a home team til they win you better have lots of cash and BIG BALLS..last season if you were chasing the royals you would have laid over 1200 to win 5..sounds stupid to do that to me..thats my 2 cents on this system..people should do thier homework before they jump in

 

[BuffaloBill]

In addition, I still don't understand how we are 83-0?

UT posted that we are 83-0 so far with Seattle pending.

Well, according to my records, 7 home teams have been swept already.

So what happened to those?

I understand that UT says that we can recoup the losses by dividing them up among the next series.

That just makes no sense because you will have to keep on recouping the losses each time another series loses, and by the time the all-star break comes around, your bets that started at 1 unit will now be at about 3 units.

Does anyone here understand what I am saying?

If the system really works the way UT claims that it does, then I would like to see the math.

This way I can prove to you that it will not work.

Someone please put the math in front of me so that I can show everyone exactly what I am talking about.

Posting the record each day, and saying that we just need to divide the losses up among the next series is not showing people the math.

The system SOUNDS good, but when put into play, a few series losses in a row will wipe you out.

I am not saying that the system is bad. I like the idea, however, it needs some work.

There needs to be a point where you just take it as a loss and move on.

Or, maybe do a 2 game chase where you wait and see if the home team loses their first game, and then chase them to win the next 2. This way you will only lose 2 games, and then you can just eat the loss and move on. Just a suggestion.

Playing it the way UT suggests will not work.

Eventually you will lose your bankroll.

I am not knocking the system, I just think it needs to be refined a bit.

Just trying to help guys.

 

[RUNVUS]

i agree, i have been saying this on other boards too..he plans to just chase the team til they win, but like the royals last season lost 8 or 9 in a row something like that..5.00 bettor would have had to lay ovet 1200 to win 5 bucks..just not worth it IMO...prolly pick a few good teams and fade a few bad teams might be the way to go

 

[UT-Longhorn]

I go 6 deep chasing personally. They lose 6 in a row, its a loss-simple as that.

 

[BuffaloBill]

UT,

Have you done the math on chasing 6 deep?

If the favorite is -150 in every game, by the time the chase is over, you are going to lose a shit load.

Let's just use a quick example for argument's sake.

Say that you are taking the Angels. Let's just say that they are even money in every game.

If your unit is $100, and lose a 6 game chase, you will be down $6,300.

That is if they are all even money. Add some juice to that and you would be down about $10,000 or maybe even more.

See what I am getting at here?

Is it really worth it?

I don't think so.

 

[Kegger]

BuffaloBill:

I agree with you, the units really get big after game 3. This is why I see the only way to do this is to roll losses into the next set of series and divide it into all 15 series. Spread it out.

Take last weekend for example. If you bet Seattle each game you would have lost around 9 units (They were favorites each game)

Since there are 15 series, to roll this over to the next series you would add .6 extra units on each game.
If none of the 15 home teams in the next series are swept, the 9 units lost on Seattle would be recouped. The record would be 30-0 for the 2 series.

Lets say 2 more home teams were to get swept in the next series, losing 16 total units. Then I would carry over the 9 units from the 1st series and 16 from the 2nd series, playing 25 extra units divided up among the 15 series?2.66 units per game.

The key is, if you are splitting the losses among the next series, every time a home team wins at least one game in all 15 series, the losses are recouped. If the final series of the season resulted in no home teams getting swept, you would not lose any money on this. The bets still can get large if there are many series in a row where a home team is swept.

 

[BuffaloBill]

Kegger,

I see what you mean, but my point is this.

Let's say that each time a new set of series start, one home team is swept each week.

Take your example.

You said that you would take the 9 units plus the 16 units, and divide it into the next set of series giving you a unit goal of 2.66.

Now, let's say that another series loses. Then, another series loses the week after that.

Or, let's say that you have a bad week and 2 series lose that week.

See what I mean?

After a while, that 2.66 unit goal might become 10 to 15 units.

Your bankroll will have to be HUGE to do this.

Your bankroll will eventually not be able to handle the chases.

My suggestion is this.

Use all of last years results, and tell me how you would have done, and tell me how high your bankroll would have had to be.

Trust me, I have done the math. If you have a few bad weeks in a row, you can easily get wiped out.

Your bankroll will need to be so big that this system is not worth it.

I don't want to beat a dead horse, but you cannot keep dividing the losses among the next series.

It won't work. Eventually it will catch up with you.

I am trying to help you before you lose your entire bankroll.

 

[Bob Stoops]

I think you could possibly lose your entire bankroll if you blindly chase each and every team. But, there has been a lot of good discussion on this board about throwing out some teams and in some cases taking the road team as opposed to the home team. Obviously, if the Red Sox get swept at home by Kansas City, there will be a lot of blood in the water.

I am on the same page with you about dividing the losses. I guess it depends on your threshold for pain and of course, you bankroll. Last week, for example, even with the loss by Seattle, I was up 18 units for the week. More importantly, if I would have ended the chase after their second loss, I would have been up 24 units for the week.

I guess you could continue to chase Seattle and they won last night, but I am plenty happy with a 18 unit profit for the week and any week for that matter.

Of course, like I said, if Boston gets swept by KC and St. Louis gets swept by Florida the same week, it could be a pretty bad week. But at this point I have an 18 unit cushion and expect that to continue to grow. I am not sure if the stat has been posted, but I have not seen how many home teams were swept last year as a percentage of how many series there were. Then if you threw out the worst four teams in the league, what that percentage would be.

Just my two cents.

 

[RUNVUS]

i researced 2 divisoins al cent and al east 233 seires wins and 33 loses... unless the rest of the leagus didnt get swept..you will have around 100 series loses for a season..it wont work chasing every home series unless you keep chasing til they win..period thats it..u cant keep dividing up loses

 

[BuffaloBill]

Stoops,

You are on the right track.

The system is a good one, but you cannot use it 100% mechanically.

You have to combine it with some handicapping and then you can make some profit.

I guess it would then be more of a strategy than a system, but who cares what you call it, as long as it is working.

This is the only way to use this.

Using it blindly, as UT stated he did last year, will not work.

As I said, the chases will become huge and bust your bankroll.

 

[Lilbillshoops]

Hey guys just wanted to chime in. I have been tracking this "system" for a couple weeks, and i understand both sides to this "argument"

I would never want to get more than 3 games deep on a team.
LAst week i took every home team with the exception of KC. Won 28 units, and lost 8 on the Mariners for a gain of 20 units.
$20/unit that was + 400
Now I have done some altering this week to incorporate some handicapping into this system.
For instance, I was on all the home teams (minus giants and mariners) yesterday. After the results I will chase the ones who lost with the exception of Texas (vs. Zito, Harden) next 2. And Added CWS (Vazquez,Buerhle) So i cut my losses with Tex, and jump in cheap on the CWS.
Todays Series i will take the Blue Jays, and yanks... But go with Boston( Schilling, Wakefield, Beckett) and Min(KC sucks, and Santan a) on the road.
I hope people are placing thier skilss into this system, I think it should show good returns....
GL ALL

 

[UT-Longhorn]

UT,

Have you done the math on chasing 6 deep?

If the favorite is -150 in every game, by the time the chase is over, you are going to lose a shit load.

Let's just use a quick example for argument's sake.

Say that you are taking the Angels. Let's just say that they are even money in every game.

If your unit is $100, and lose a 6 game chase, you will be down $6,300.

That is if they are all even money. Add some juice to that and you would be down about $10,000 or maybe even more.

See what I am getting at here?

Is it really worth it?

I don't think so.

excuse me? Im up almost 80 units so far this year, Ive done the research thanks on this. This is the 4th year of chasing in baseball, and ive risked as much as $7000 to win just $100. Some call it stupid, but it won, and has won, and continues to win. Im not asking for your guidance here, im playing the system period.

 

[BuffaloBill]

UT,

If you understand the risks, and you want to play it, then that is fine.

I am trying to help others who might not realize what they are getting themselves into.

You state ridiculous things such as 90-0, when in actuality you are not 90-0.

I am trying to help some new guys here who think that they have the holy grail with this thing, when it is far from that.

I am not knocking the ENTIRE system. The idea is good. You just need to set some safer risk parameters.

We are all entitled to our own opinion.

And, you said it best. You have risked $7,000 to win $100 at one time.

Maybe that risk tolerance is not for everyone here.

 

[BRUSHMAN]

UT,

If you understand the risks, and you want to play it, then that is fine.

I am trying to help others who might not realize what they are getting themselves into.

You state ridiculous things such as 90-0, when in actuality you are not 90-0.

I am trying to help some new guys here who think that they have the holy grail with this thing, when it is far from that.

I am not knocking the ENTIRE system. The idea is good. You just need to set some safer risk parameters.

We are all entitled to our own opinion.

And, you said it best. You have risked $7,000 to win $100 at one time.

Maybe that risk tolerance is not for everyone here.

You are absolutely right Bill.The system is not bad but you need a shit load of balls and moolah to back it up.You couldn't pay me 7000 to win 100.
Jesus you are basically betting on the starting pitcher right?What happens if he goes down after 10 pitches.Fuk that good luck UT..Dont take this the wrong way!