GOALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
- Thread starter Crookity
- Start date
We are 3 months into the soccer season, and its been a great one so far. But I hit a bit of a rough stretch in the last week or so and been giving back some units. I have made a few stupid mistakes , and didn't want to push much this week ahead of International Break. Going light this weekend, and already digging in for the action in 2 weeks. Traditionally, the week after International Break can be a fruitful one for goals. Back soon with some breakdowns when I have find them.
It is time to crank back up the machine, and get some Overs popping again. I love when International Break is over 
EPL
BRENTFORD/ARSENAL OVER 2.5 - 105 - I would be all over this at -125 to -140 so I see value in this one. I bought a few days ago, the line seems to be ticking up a bit in price.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST/BRIGHTON OVER 2.5 - 138
BUDESLIGA
STUTGART/FRANKFORT OVER 2.5 - 138
SERIE A
ATALANTA/NAPOLI OVER 2.5 - 110
PARLAY CANDIDATES DUE TO PRICE - going to start tipping some over priced games that I will be using in 2 gamer pairings. The Max I typically go is -250.
LEIPZIG/WOLFSBURG OVER
BREMEN/LEVERKUSEN OVER
GLADBACH/DORTMUND OVER - getting really expensive
MAN CITY/LIVERPOOL OVER
TOTTENHAM/ASTON VILLA OVER
MAY THE NET POP IN ABUNDANCE LOL
EPL
BRENTFORD/ARSENAL OVER 2.5 - 105 - I would be all over this at -125 to -140 so I see value in this one. I bought a few days ago, the line seems to be ticking up a bit in price.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST/BRIGHTON OVER 2.5 - 138
BUDESLIGA
STUTGART/FRANKFORT OVER 2.5 - 138
SERIE A
ATALANTA/NAPOLI OVER 2.5 - 110
PARLAY CANDIDATES DUE TO PRICE - going to start tipping some over priced games that I will be using in 2 gamer pairings. The Max I typically go is -250.
LEIPZIG/WOLFSBURG OVER
BREMEN/LEVERKUSEN OVER
GLADBACH/DORTMUND OVER - getting really expensive
MAN CITY/LIVERPOOL OVER
TOTTENHAM/ASTON VILLA OVER
MAY THE NET POP IN ABUNDANCE LOL
Solid week back with 3 of 4 of the singles and 4 of 5 on the 2 game parlay plays. We got lots of action on deck with UCL and EUROPA mid week. Back soon.It is time to crank back up the machine, and get some Overs popping again. I love when International Break is over
EPL
BRENTFORD/ARSENAL OVER 2.5 - 105 - I would be all over this at -125 to -140 so I see value in this one. I bought a few days ago, the line seems to be ticking up a bit in price.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST/BRIGHTON OVER 2.5 - 138
BUDESLIGA
STUTGART/FRANKFORT OVER 2.5 - 138
SERIE A
ATALANTA/NAPOLI OVER 2.5 - 110
PARLAY CANDIDATES DUE TO PRICE - going to start tipping some over priced games that I will be using in 2 gamer pairings. The Max I typically go is -250.
LEIPZIG/WOLFSBURG OVER
BREMEN/LEVERKUSEN OVER
GLADBACH/DORTMUND OVER - getting really expensive
MAN CITY/LIVERPOOL OVER
TOTTENHAM/ASTON VILLA OVER
I didn't play too much this week. I dropped some UCL parlays and lost the Brighton play. I wasn't thrilled with the card. I will break one down for today.
SERIE A
SASSUOLO/ROMA OVER 2.5 - 125
This game pits too higher scoring teams in the League with Roma #3 in scoring @1.92 per game playing @ Sassuolo who is #8 in the league @1.54 per match. Similiarly these two teams are creating lots of chances with both in the top 8 in xG. In fact only Napoli and Inter are creating more quality scoring chances at home than Sassuolo. On the flip side, the Green and Black have trouble keeping the ball out their own net. Sassuolo is 3rd worst in the Serie A in XGA. Sass has given up 2 goals or more their last 3 times out. Roma is nothing to write home about as far as road scoring is concerned, but I think the weak backline of their opponent will open up some opportunities. This series has seen some goals with 4 of the last 5 going over 2.5 with the following scorelines; 4-3, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 2-2. All of this has me feeling that there should be enough chances to see the net pop a few times, and I will take my chances with the Over.
NAPOLI/INTER OVER 2.5 - 115 - will try to get to this one later.
Side note, I need Leverkusen/BVB to close a parlay. There is nothign cheap about -225 on an Over, but i think this is undervalued. Given the recent form of these squads I think that Over should be -250 to -300. If I didn't need this on the back end of a parlay I would be tieing it up with some other plays. I think we see goals in Man City/Tottenham but its very expensive at -300. Also, my gut tells me goals in VILLA/BOURN but its juiced past -200. Villa has scored 2 goals or more their last 4 times out and conceeded in each of those games. Bourn at home is good for a tally as well. Do what you will with it.
SERIE A
SASSUOLO/ROMA OVER 2.5 - 125
This game pits too higher scoring teams in the League with Roma #3 in scoring @1.92 per game playing @ Sassuolo who is #8 in the league @1.54 per match. Similiarly these two teams are creating lots of chances with both in the top 8 in xG. In fact only Napoli and Inter are creating more quality scoring chances at home than Sassuolo. On the flip side, the Green and Black have trouble keeping the ball out their own net. Sassuolo is 3rd worst in the Serie A in XGA. Sass has given up 2 goals or more their last 3 times out. Roma is nothing to write home about as far as road scoring is concerned, but I think the weak backline of their opponent will open up some opportunities. This series has seen some goals with 4 of the last 5 going over 2.5 with the following scorelines; 4-3, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 2-2. All of this has me feeling that there should be enough chances to see the net pop a few times, and I will take my chances with the Over.
NAPOLI/INTER OVER 2.5 - 115 - will try to get to this one later.
Side note, I need Leverkusen/BVB to close a parlay. There is nothign cheap about -225 on an Over, but i think this is undervalued. Given the recent form of these squads I think that Over should be -250 to -300. If I didn't need this on the back end of a parlay I would be tieing it up with some other plays. I think we see goals in Man City/Tottenham but its very expensive at -300. Also, my gut tells me goals in VILLA/BOURN but its juiced past -200. Villa has scored 2 goals or more their last 4 times out and conceeded in each of those games. Bourn at home is good for a tally as well. Do what you will with it.
rommmaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
the morning went pretty much as planned other than bloody Leverkusen/BVB ending in a stalemate 1-1 under draw.
In a rush today, lets keep the momentum!
CITY/VILLA OVER - however you want to play 2.5, 2.5/3 or 3
The line is dumping as it hit -225 and dropped .50 cent to -175. This is way to low. I know Man City has some guys out, but does it really matter? Man City #1 in EPL @ 2.57 goals per game, Villa #2 - 2.36 goals per game. Villa is top 10 in goal scoring at home and xG, and Man City best road scoring team in EPL. Vill has scored 2 goals or more in their last 5 home games, and also conceded in each of those. Man City has scored 3 goals or more in 4 of their last 5 on the road. This fixture has seen goals as 4 of the last 5 went over ; 3-1, 1-1, 3-2, 2-1, 2-1.
BRIGHTON/BRENTFORD OVER 2.5/3 -125
good luck
CITY/VILLA OVER - however you want to play 2.5, 2.5/3 or 3
The line is dumping as it hit -225 and dropped .50 cent to -175. This is way to low. I know Man City has some guys out, but does it really matter? Man City #1 in EPL @ 2.57 goals per game, Villa #2 - 2.36 goals per game. Villa is top 10 in goal scoring at home and xG, and Man City best road scoring team in EPL. Vill has scored 2 goals or more in their last 5 home games, and also conceded in each of those. Man City has scored 3 goals or more in 4 of their last 5 on the road. This fixture has seen goals as 4 of the last 5 went over ; 3-1, 1-1, 3-2, 2-1, 2-1.
BRIGHTON/BRENTFORD OVER 2.5/3 -125
good luck
I disrespected the line move and paid for it today, shit happens. I'll take solice that I limited the damage with some winnings from the other match. We get it back this week!
I am not crazy about the card. For now I have the above EPL Over which I like quite nicely at the price.
I did play around with these in parlays.
BUDESLIGA
MUNICH/FRANKFORT OVER -220
RBL/BVB OVER -225
LEVERKUSEN/STUTTGART OVER -175
