Group discussion: Handicapping NCAA Hoops
- Thread starter Woodson
- Start date
- Feb 26, 2001
- 13,593
- 164
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NEVER UNDER ESTIMATE HOME COURT -UNLIKE ANY OTHER CAPPED SPORT CBB HOME COURT MEANS EVERYTHING- WHEN I LOOK AT A CARD THE FIRST THING I LOOK AT ARE HOME DOGS OR SMALL FAVORITES THAT HAVE NO BIZ BEING FAVORED- TAKING FAVS OVER 10 points ON the road is fatal- -HOME REVENGE UNLIKE ANY OTHER CAPPED SPORT REALLY COMES INTO PLAY MORE SO THAN OTHER SPORTS ESPECIALLY HOME DOGS IN A REVENGE SPOT- FAVORITES OVER 10 POINTS WITH A RIVALRY OR REVENGE SPOT ON DECK ARE GOOD BET AGAINST AND THEN KNOWING WHO THE SHARPS ARE TAKING- BET SMALL SCHOOLS LINES ARE SOFT MANY TIMES- JUST SOME TIDBITS I USE
Onr little tid bit used for years. Northern Arizona home games, especially the second conference game of the weekend (usually on Sunday). Beware of the road team. This is their second stop and hard to get to. Bus ride from PHX to Flagstaff, and a high altitude site.
Look for unders early with teams changing key players from last year. There will be an adjustment to new teammates. Also unders with new coaches, new system.
Always kmow who teams are playing next. Teams often mail in victories under the big spread before big games.
If you have the time, follow a particular conference, or two. Make one conference one with smaller schools - off the radar so to speak.
Pay close attention to past schedule of games - this is my favorite and easy to do. Many times during a year a team will be playing their third in 5 days vs. a team much more rested. You will be surprised how often the more rested team covers.
Bet when it makes you squirm. Often the line says no way that team covers. More often than not, the other team covers. Hope some of that makes sense.
Look for unders early with teams changing key players from last year. There will be an adjustment to new teammates. Also unders with new coaches, new system.
Always kmow who teams are playing next. Teams often mail in victories under the big spread before big games.
If you have the time, follow a particular conference, or two. Make one conference one with smaller schools - off the radar so to speak.
Pay close attention to past schedule of games - this is my favorite and easy to do. Many times during a year a team will be playing their third in 5 days vs. a team much more rested. You will be surprised how often the more rested team covers.
Bet when it makes you squirm. Often the line says no way that team covers. More often than not, the other team covers. Hope some of that makes sense.
I like the way this is flowing. Thank you to everyone who has contributed thus far. I know several of you who have the know how that could also add value. Please respond.
Hedge, if you could for those that don't know it. What is the Billy Blastoff System?
Thanks in advance!
:toast:
Great thread. I will add to it when I get time tomorrow. If anyone has an extra copy of the blue ribbon, or is done with theirs send it my way, and I will be happy to provide you with my power numbers when they are done.:0corn
Wood - Thank you for starting this and adding your knowledge. Had to print this out yesterday and take home for some bedtime reading. Hope to see more. I agree with a lot of this (teams playing for a third time when one team lost first two, home court is HUGE, short rest, etc.) I would like to add an obvious comment that teams like Duke and UCLA (two of my favorite teams) get a lot of love because of their name, but when it comes to these schools covering ATS, it just not like it used to be. You really got to look at the matchups, venues, etc. If Duke plays a decent Big East school, they may be favored but will probably not cover because they don't have strong post players. Hate to say this but watch out for Duke when they play in MSG, may be a good play against them. Thanks again for posting this info, very interesting read
To play off of this Duke lines are inflated, but I have found they are pretty good for 2nd half bets. Added to the inflated line is that teams really gear up for them and are gunning for them in the 1st half, but don't have the guns to run with them for a whole game. Duke can pull away in the 2nd half especially since Coach K can make better half time adjustments than the other coach.
Great thread, Woody. I am a terrible basketball capper, and can use all the help I can get. Spang Poon Clem and others, I look forward to your insight this season.
All you guys....great information......we all do many things different when we capp.I have my own point system that includes,the coach,impact player,etc.I give the point gd extra value,type of defense,aircraft carrier,home court,ats,rebounding,etc,etc...sounds complex but once I have numbers after a few games it gets easier.The problem is its so time consuming...its a decent system....win and lose..I don't put my record down because that also takes so much time.
Last year I went 307-260...for a 54.1%...not bad..not great either...but you have to do your homework...and like someone said...detective work..
I like the MAAC,Sun,Conf USA and BE.. I try to stay with those leagues...but I really know the MAAC.I know many of the coaches,there styles and Marist is in my backyard.Yet with all that info I still get my butt beaten.
On friday Seton Hall plays St Peters....Not sure of the line but let me tell you...Seton Hall will make some big noise this year.They return 4 starters and have two outstanding transfers.Pope is the New Mex St kid that had so many problems but he gives the Hall some inside scoring presence.Lawrence is the Mizzou transfer and he is an impact player.But Hazell a 1st team pre-season selection BE all star will have to stop his shooting.Harvey and Thoedore are solid guards.That's 4 gds...so team chemistry is now a question mark...not enough basketballs to go around.All those factors have to be considered when you capp.Pope will take some time from 6'9 Garcia,etc...throw in a crazy coach in Bobby Gonzalez..great recruiter...avg bench coach...anyway will capp this game later in the week.I know more about St peters.
Again,great post.Think the 1st week we can get some good numbers on certain games...then the odd makers catch up..
Good luck to everyone..Woodson..nice job..lets win some monopoly money this year...
Last year I went 307-260...for a 54.1%...not bad..not great either...but you have to do your homework...and like someone said...detective work..
I like the MAAC,Sun,Conf USA and BE.. I try to stay with those leagues...but I really know the MAAC.I know many of the coaches,there styles and Marist is in my backyard.Yet with all that info I still get my butt beaten.
On friday Seton Hall plays St Peters....Not sure of the line but let me tell you...Seton Hall will make some big noise this year.They return 4 starters and have two outstanding transfers.Pope is the New Mex St kid that had so many problems but he gives the Hall some inside scoring presence.Lawrence is the Mizzou transfer and he is an impact player.But Hazell a 1st team pre-season selection BE all star will have to stop his shooting.Harvey and Thoedore are solid guards.That's 4 gds...so team chemistry is now a question mark...not enough basketballs to go around.All those factors have to be considered when you capp.Pope will take some time from 6'9 Garcia,etc...throw in a crazy coach in Bobby Gonzalez..great recruiter...avg bench coach...anyway will capp this game later in the week.I know more about St peters.
Again,great post.Think the 1st week we can get some good numbers on certain games...then the odd makers catch up..
Good luck to everyone..Woodson..nice job..lets win some monopoly money this year...
Basketball can be a tough sport to handi as there are games every day all week-not like football which is basically Sat/Sun and you have all week to study it. So you need some simple/few guidelines.
I usaully mess with toals and look at the following-past trends-pace/possessins of play-veteran guards or not-3 pt % and number of 3 p shots taken-ft % and who is the coach are just a few. I really like following only 2-3 conferences also.
good stuff in this thread thaks for starting it Box
I usaully mess with toals and look at the following-past trends-pace/possessins of play-veteran guards or not-3 pt % and number of 3 p shots taken-ft % and who is the coach are just a few. I really like following only 2-3 conferences also.
good stuff in this thread thaks for starting it Box
Thanks to all the members that contributed to this thread. It's encouraging to know that this place still possesses quality members and they are willing share their insight and knowledge...
I'll bump this as the season progresses and a new situation presents itself. Feel free to do the same as well.
Fellas, I wish you luck and hope you have twice as many wins as losses come April.
:mj06:
And let me be the first to say, "Why did I bet on Notre Dame and Harangody! What was I thinking!"
I'll bump this as the season progresses and a new situation presents itself. Feel free to do the same as well.
Fellas, I wish you luck and hope you have twice as many wins as losses come April.
:mj06:
And let me be the first to say, "Why did I bet on Notre Dame and Harangody! What was I thinking!"
Good thread. Time for a bump.
I'm still trying to decide which conferences to focus on. Any suggestions?
I'm in Big Ten Country so I might start there.
I'm still trying to decide which conferences to focus on. Any suggestions?
I'm in Big Ten Country so I might start there.
PocketAces and all. We all have teams we follow. It would be great to get unbiased info. I live in Iowa City, so will give what I can on Iowa. redsfann will be another source for Iowa and I see a couple of others like Hawkeye. (Hawkeye is always good in about any sport).
I see you are from Wisconsin, would like some info on the Badgers, was leaning toward them tonight vs Arizona. Wisc. GB?, Wisc. MIL?
Just my two nickles for today.
I see you are from Wisconsin, would like some info on the Badgers, was leaning toward them tonight vs Arizona. Wisc. GB?, Wisc. MIL?
Just my two nickles for today.
nice! heading out today to get a copy of Blue Ribbon and start crunching some numbers. can't wait! I follow the A-10 and specifically St Joe's.
