Hanginaround

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,310
174
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 11-6 (+4.25*)
NCAA YTD: 7-10 (-4.65*)
Top plays
(included above) 1-1 (-0.80*)


Minnesota(-3')(-105) over Green Bay (1.5 Biscuits) ** Top Play**



01GBfirst.jpg


06lombardilarge.jpg



GL
 

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,310
174
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Chicago(-10)(-105) over Detroit (2*) **Top Play**
- - Chicago has gone toe-to-toe with you-know-who the last three weeks. The not so mighty Lions take to the road after their Super Bowl. I have my angle on who controls the action in this game.

GL
 

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,310
174
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 11-6 (+4.25*)
NCAA YTD: 15-11 (+2.70*)
Top plays
(included above) 2-1 (+0.70*)


New Orleans(-7)(-115) over New York Jets (1.5*) **Top Play**
http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d81314d72&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true
- - FWIW, with QB Sanchez looking to extend his record streak, I think the Saints defense might put to use all the (deserved) talk being heaped on the Jets defense, and I also don't mind the fact the Saints are looking at a week off after this engagement.


GL
 

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,310
174
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Miami(-1) over Buffalo (1*)
- - The desperation of the IMO best and most battle-tested of the 0-3 teams conjoined with the most manageable situation at a fair price has me wondering a bit about what I'm missing.

Cincinnati/Cleveland(Ov37') (1*)
- - Nsane Play that has me worried over whether the visitor does their part, 'cause with every look I see more than 14 for the host. :scared

Kansas City(+9)(-115) over New York Giants (1*)
- - Nsane Play #2, but enough little pieces to say WTF. :sadwave:

GL
 

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,310
174
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,310
174
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 16-8 (+9.10*)
NCAA YTD: 18-15 (+1.35*)
Top plays
(included above) 5-1 (+5.70*)


Too many plays worries me more than too many favorites, but when all the plays rate about the same,
trying to pick and choose among equally rated plays would worry me the most. So . . .


Indianapolis(-3)(-130) over Tennessee (1*)
- -

Baltimore(-9') over Cincinnati (1*)
- - Looks to me like Cincinnati picked the wrong week to be paying a visit to Baltimore.

Pittsburgh(-11) over Detroit (1*)
- - QB Culpepper (although back in shape) is n-o-t-h-i-n-g and will need l-o-t-s of help from the complacent champs
to put this one in doubt through the front door or the back door.

Carolina(-4') over Washington (1*)
- - "Shouldn't be laying 4' points to anyone," much less a .500 club, and they've never had winning ways ATS as a small fav at home.
Still, the situation off the Dallas effort gets my cash.

New England(-3) over Denver (1*)
- -


Two more favorites in the bullpen. :scared


GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,310
174
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 19-13 (+6.60*)
NCAA YTD: 20-19 (-1.10*)
Top plays
(included above) 6-2 (+5.55*)


New York Jets(-9') over Buffalo (1*)
- - Every scenario I can envision fails to feature the visitor setting the tempo in this game.

Houston(+4) over Cincinnati (1*)
- - (A) Texans are 6-1 ATS as a road underdog, and the Bengals are 1-5 ATS last 6 games as a home favorite. (B) Houston stormed back last week against a rested Arizona squad before being denied at the goalline, and Bengals are off 3 straight division wins in the final dramatic seconds. (C) Sure looks as though there's some synergy working between A and B.


Baltimore(+3)(+100) over Minnesota (1*)
- -

Detroit/Green Bay(Ov48) (1 Biscuit)
- - Detroit hasn't won in Wisconsin since about the time Eisenhower was in the White House, but I'm wanting to grab two touchdowns with Culpepper and the improving Lions. :scared But in the final analysis, betting on points being scored looks like as good or a better value. ("The 'next guy' is an important guy.": http://www.detnews.com/article/20091017/SPORTS0101/910170394/1126/sports0101/Ailing-Lions-will-have-hands-full-against-rested-Packers )

Atlanta(-3)(-130) over Chicago (1*)
- -


GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,310
174
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Denver(+3')(-115) over San Diego (1*)
- - In looking for the reasons to support my "square instincts" that Denver's tank is low and San Diego has been stewing on their embarrassment, I instead keep getting pushed in Denver's direction. I'll take the points with the undefeated Broncos.

GL
 

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,310
174
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 23-15 (+8.40*)
NCAA YTD: 24-23 (-1.00*)
Top plays
(included above) 7-2 (+7.05*)


Chicago(+1) over Cincinnati (1*)
- - Maybe the Bears lay an 0-2 turd coming out of their bye week. The cardiac Bengals got a reality check and emerge banged up in the process . . . For me, this is more of a play on Chicago than it is a play against Cincinnati.

New York Giants(-7) over Arizona (1*)
- -

Pittsburgh(-6) over Minnesota (1*)
- -

Indianapolis(-14) over St. Louis (1*)
- - To quote Bill Simmons @ ESPN: "Peyton Manning seems especially juiced by this year's Colts team. I think it's partly because he's happy to be healthy again (remember, he was coming off knee surgery last year); partly because Tony Dungy is gone (so he has a bigger leadership responsibility); and partly because he's fired up about the young guys (Pierre Garcon, Donald Brown, etc.) and just likes playing with them. There's a hop in his step and you can't tell me differently."

San Francisco(+3)(+100) over Houston (1*)
- -


FWIW, I'm trying out a disciplined technique for Ov/Un capping, and this week I seem to like SD/KC(Un44) and Ariz/NYG(Ov46'). :dizzy:

GL
 

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,310
174
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 27-17 (+10.10*)
NCAA YTD: 24-23 (-1.00*)
Top plays
(included above) 7-2 (+7.05*)

- - My one regret from Saturday was not acting when I debated and debated about hedging out of Michigan(+4') with Penn State(-3)(-130). My one regret from today was not acting when I debated and debated about hedging out of Chicago(+1) with Cincinnati(+1')(-120).


New York Giants(-7) over Arizona (1*)
- -
- - Last November the Cardinals had a perfect setup at home against the Giants to show they were an elite team that could play with anyone, and although Arizona(+3) lost 37-29, I remember it as quite likely the best played game of the 2008 season. Tonight the Cards are looking to validate their toughness and maturity, but with a much less ideal setup, IMO.


GL
 

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,310
174
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Minnesota(+3)(-105) over Green Bay (1 Biscuit)
- - As stated in my first Madjack's post in 2001, I bleed Green and Gold, with lots of opinions but only a handful of wagers in the last 20+ years, as Packers games are far too important to me to have money color the picture. Biscuits only, no bucks . . . This 2009 Packers team remains troublingly slow to get some fundamental shortcomings corrected, but they would have to be a sad sack of a disappointment if I haven't been expecting them to be possessed of their best effort of the season when the Vikings come calling this year. I?m not saying how good that best effort will be, or whether it?s good enough, but I've always been expecting it would be sufficiently in the neighborhood of good enough so that I was going to be there shoulder to shoulder with them . . . In the raucous Dome, the Vikings schemed to take away the quick slants and tosses while expecting QB Rodgers would not have enough time to exploit their secondary with the down field plays that take longer to develop, so proper adjustments need to be made by Green Bay to counter all variables of that equation. And the mighty Pittsburgh defense didn?t rock Favre out of his comfort zone enough to suit me, so I?m not sure what more I might see from Green Bay . . . Regardless of what either team did since their Monday night game, I never expected the Pack would be installed as a favorite at about the same line as the host was in that first game. Simply put, Green Bay has to be my pick, but I?m not crazy enough to be giving any points; I hope the good guys make me look like a fool for being such a worrier.
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,310
174
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Philadelphia(-7)(-125) over Washington (1*)
- - I don't know whether Philadelphia's OL is a holy mess, or how badly they miss DC Jim Johnson, or whether they are a pedestrian 9-7 type squad. I do know that after last week, the Eagles need to respond as a team, and that HC Andy Reid's teams have a pretty fair track record of making plays in very similar spots; the crop of bottom feeders in the league this year, and Dan Snyder's teams, not so much.

GL
 
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