Hanginaround
- Thread starter lostinamerica
- Start date
NFL YTD: 44-32 (+10.10*)
NCAA YTD: 51-46 (-2.64*)
Top plays
(included above) 8-6 (-0.14*)
What needs posting to start this week is a scolding for my stupidity last week.
I had no doubt I would be on New Orleans over New England last week, and I posted it early. I saw only one possible game playing itself out with Chcago against Minnesota, and was fully committed.
I then went up and down the list of the early games from last Sunday, analyzing and researching and cross-checking and deciding, and for the first time I can ever remember after some full scale capping I just had to concede there was nothing in the noon games that appealed to me as a good play or a strong ANGLE, and accordingly, for the first time I can ever remember, I passed entirely on the early games, notwithstanding due diligence in capping the whole slate as thoroughly as is my custom (and and even a little more so if anything, trying to find something).
The afternoon games were pretty much more of the same, although I never did finish capping those games as thoroughly as I did the early ones, and although I did have a strong early lean to San Diego over Kansas City which I never got back to looking at closely.
But then when it was official that Leinart was in for Warner with Arizona, I rather hastily had a play I liked, but liked too well as it turns out, as I noted in my post I was failing to pay the heavy impost for buying off the 3' (even though I had concluded several weeks ago that the NFL and NCAA lines had been as tight as I could ever remember for several weeks).
I then compounded the 1/2 point error with an impulse play on the total points in the 2nd half of the Minnesota game.
Bottom line is I was exercising my customarily strong MONEY MANAGEMENT with some exceptional discipline, and then punted it away with two careless moves.
It should have been a dominating 2-0 performance during a week in which I didn't even like the card.
Instead I secured a 2-2 mediocrity that never should have been allowed to happen . . .
On to this week, and for starters, the card doesn't leave me with the lack of opinions I had last week.
Cincinnati(-13) over Detroit (1.5*) * * Top Play * *
- - The Bengals have won one game by more that ten points all season, but that fact gets rectified in this big time December mismatch.
:00x32
GL
NCAA YTD: 51-46 (-2.64*)
Top plays
(included above) 8-6 (-0.14*)
What needs posting to start this week is a scolding for my stupidity last week.
I had no doubt I would be on New Orleans over New England last week, and I posted it early. I saw only one possible game playing itself out with Chcago against Minnesota, and was fully committed.
I then went up and down the list of the early games from last Sunday, analyzing and researching and cross-checking and deciding, and for the first time I can ever remember after some full scale capping I just had to concede there was nothing in the noon games that appealed to me as a good play or a strong ANGLE, and accordingly, for the first time I can ever remember, I passed entirely on the early games, notwithstanding due diligence in capping the whole slate as thoroughly as is my custom (and and even a little more so if anything, trying to find something).
The afternoon games were pretty much more of the same, although I never did finish capping those games as thoroughly as I did the early ones, and although I did have a strong early lean to San Diego over Kansas City which I never got back to looking at closely.
But then when it was official that Leinart was in for Warner with Arizona, I rather hastily had a play I liked, but liked too well as it turns out, as I noted in my post I was failing to pay the heavy impost for buying off the 3' (even though I had concluded several weeks ago that the NFL and NCAA lines had been as tight as I could ever remember for several weeks).
I then compounded the 1/2 point error with an impulse play on the total points in the 2nd half of the Minnesota game.
Bottom line is I was exercising my customarily strong MONEY MANAGEMENT with some exceptional discipline, and then punted it away with two careless moves.
It should have been a dominating 2-0 performance during a week in which I didn't even like the card.
Instead I secured a 2-2 mediocrity that never should have been allowed to happen . . .
On to this week, and for starters, the card doesn't leave me with the lack of opinions I had last week.
Cincinnati(-13) over Detroit (1.5*) * * Top Play * *
- - The Bengals have won one game by more that ten points all season, but that fact gets rectified in this big time December mismatch.
:00x32
GL
Washington(+10)(-120) over New Orleans (1*)
- - Just to post something: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/30/AR2009113003891.html
GL
- - Just to post something: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/30/AR2009113003891.html
GL
Tennessee(+7)(-125) over Indianapolis (1*)
- - Indianapolis can tie New England's all-time mark with its 21st consecutive regular-season victory, and do so after setting an NFL-record with five consecutive wins after trailing in the fourth quarter. On tap is a division foe they smacked around the first time that is now on a 5 game tear of their own, but the real question has to be whether Jeff Fisher will be sporting a Peyton Manning jersey.
GL
- - Indianapolis can tie New England's all-time mark with its 21st consecutive regular-season victory, and do so after setting an NFL-record with five consecutive wins after trailing in the fourth quarter. On tap is a division foe they smacked around the first time that is now on a 5 game tear of their own, but the real question has to be whether Jeff Fisher will be sporting a Peyton Manning jersey.
GL
Green Bay(-3)(-130) over Baltimore (1*)
- - Rested and healthier are excellent complements to the Packers noticeably improved play. But I would likely pass on taking a side if Mad Jackson was back home in Columbus. :11jackson
GL
- - Rested and healthier are excellent complements to the Packers noticeably improved play. But I would likely pass on taking a side if Mad Jackson was back home in Columbus. :11jackson
GL
NFL YTD: 48-34 (+11.35*)
NCAA YTD: 51-46 (-2.64*)
Top plays
(included above) 8-7 (-1.79*)
Cleveland(Ov12')(-115) vs. Pittsburgh (1*)
- - After being shut out and and embarrassed with 160 yards in prime time against Baltimore in the debut of Quinn's re-ascension, I definitely expect a passionate and more confident effort by the entire Browns offense in this prime time showcase. It's hard to doubt Cleveland has been looking forward to their Super Bowl, and the short turnaround and bitter weather could well inspire Cleveland, but don't seem real likely to benefit a misfiring Pittsburgh squad. With the weather looking better than forecast earlier today, i'll stick with my original play over taking the 10 point dog.
http://www.brownsgab.com/2009/12/09/waiting-all-week-for-thursday-night/
GL
NCAA YTD: 51-46 (-2.64*)
Top plays
(included above) 8-7 (-1.79*)
Cleveland(Ov12')(-115) vs. Pittsburgh (1*)
- - After being shut out and and embarrassed with 160 yards in prime time against Baltimore in the debut of Quinn's re-ascension, I definitely expect a passionate and more confident effort by the entire Browns offense in this prime time showcase. It's hard to doubt Cleveland has been looking forward to their Super Bowl, and the short turnaround and bitter weather could well inspire Cleveland, but don't seem real likely to benefit a misfiring Pittsburgh squad. With the weather looking better than forecast earlier today, i'll stick with my original play over taking the 10 point dog.
http://www.brownsgab.com/2009/12/09/waiting-all-week-for-thursday-night/
GL
I noted that two weeks ago, I only came up with two contests that I could genuinely "get a read on" and thus be committed to making my play on, but otherwise I struggled to get a read on any of the games that week, and should have refrained further . . . This week, I have to say I can rarely if ever remember so many contests in which I can read "obvious" ANGLES favoring both sides, such that the angles would, in my mind, quite rightfully justify whichever side a handicapper came down on as being a position having plenty of "proven" merit . . . So there are sides to be taken, and I'll start with two games in which I think I have a "good read" on both sides . . .
Houston(-7) over Seattle (1*)
- - When I pulled the trigger and posted a play on Seattle(+1) over San Francisco last week, I couldn't find and share the precise stat that I had seen earlier in the week to the effect that Seattle was something like 80%+ATS when returning home off a SU road victory, and San Francisco was something like 20%- ATS when going on the road after a SU home victory. Last week Seattle prevailed over San Fran in a fiercely contested divisional battle, and I definitely don't see how good things are "just starting" to roll for this Seattle team to be hitting the road . . . Houston is a very good young team experiencing growing pains but which has no business looking to avoid losing it's 5th game in a row, a stretch which includes 4 divisional games, hosting a Monday Night game, a bye, and two bitter losses to the undefeated Colts . . . I then saw the way QB Schaub returned to the Jacksonville game with a separated shoulder, but the hill was just too big to climb, and I had no trouble taking a side on the outcome of this week's game not coming down to the desperate final moments.
Cincinnati vs. Minnesota(Un43) (1*)-
- - The team that wins this game will set the tempo with their defense.
GL
Houston(-7) over Seattle (1*)
- - When I pulled the trigger and posted a play on Seattle(+1) over San Francisco last week, I couldn't find and share the precise stat that I had seen earlier in the week to the effect that Seattle was something like 80%+ATS when returning home off a SU road victory, and San Francisco was something like 20%- ATS when going on the road after a SU home victory. Last week Seattle prevailed over San Fran in a fiercely contested divisional battle, and I definitely don't see how good things are "just starting" to roll for this Seattle team to be hitting the road . . . Houston is a very good young team experiencing growing pains but which has no business looking to avoid losing it's 5th game in a row, a stretch which includes 4 divisional games, hosting a Monday Night game, a bye, and two bitter losses to the undefeated Colts . . . I then saw the way QB Schaub returned to the Jacksonville game with a separated shoulder, but the hill was just too big to climb, and I had no trouble taking a side on the outcome of this week's game not coming down to the desperate final moments.
Cincinnati vs. Minnesota(Un43) (1*)-
- - The team that wins this game will set the tempo with their defense.
GL
New York Jets(-3)(-130) over Tampa Bay (1*)
- -
Denver(+7)(-125) over Indianapolis (1*)
- -
New Orleans(-10)(-105) over Atlanta (1*)
- -
GL
- -
Denver(+7)(-125) over Indianapolis (1*)
- -
New Orleans(-10)(-105) over Atlanta (1*)
- -
GL
Washington(-1)(-120) over Oakland (1*)
- - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/10/AR2009121004107.html
GL
- - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/10/AR2009121004107.html
GL
NFL YTD: 53-37 (+12.75*)
NCAA YTD: 51-46 (-2.64*)
Top plays
(included above) 8-7 (-1.79*)
Arizona(-3)(-135) over San Francisco (1*)
- - I'm not seeing that big bounce that would make the 49ers a fearsome prime time predator.
http://www.azcardinals.com/news-and-events/article-1/A-Chance-To-Clinch/60e94dec-5c20-4824-802a-168531d05239
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/cardinals/articles/2009/12/13/20091213spt-nfl-cardinals-49ers-preview.html
http://www.insidebayarea.com/49ers/ci_13986154
GL
NCAA YTD: 51-46 (-2.64*)
Top plays
(included above) 8-7 (-1.79*)
Arizona(-3)(-135) over San Francisco (1*)
- - I'm not seeing that big bounce that would make the 49ers a fearsome prime time predator.
http://www.azcardinals.com/news-and-events/article-1/A-Chance-To-Clinch/60e94dec-5c20-4824-802a-168531d05239
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/cardinals/articles/2009/12/13/20091213spt-nfl-cardinals-49ers-preview.html
http://www.insidebayarea.com/49ers/ci_13986154
GL
NFL YTD: 54-40 (+10.25*)
Cincinnati(-13')(-105) over Kansas City (1*)
- -
Minnesota(-7) over Chicago (1*)
- -
Green Bay(-14)(-105) over Seattle (1 Biscuit)
- -
New Orleans(-14) over Tampa Bay (1*)
- -
GL
Cincinnati(-13')(-105) over Kansas City (1*)
- -
Minnesota(-7) over Chicago (1*)
- -
Green Bay(-14)(-105) over Seattle (1 Biscuit)
- -
New Orleans(-14) over Tampa Bay (1*)
- -
GL
