Hawai'i Bowl

[Smitty]

i'm gonna try to keep this shorter than most of my write-ups since, you know, christmas eve. let's see how it goes.

one quick note... Ken Niumatalolo is in his first year at SJ St. as has been discussed many times here, there's been a strong trend against coaches in their first year at a program. so far this year, those coaches are 1-3 ATS. (yes, i'm finally tracking it!)

other than that, there's not much reason to recommend the bulls.

SJ St qb Eget took over as the starter mid-season. i only saw one SJ St game this year, but he looked pretty good. his numbers are just ok overall though. he completed 57% of his passes for 11 TD and 9 INT. however, he averaged 8.2 yards/att, which is very good. and in his 7 games as the starter, he only took 4 sacks. oh, and one game really dragged down his numbers. against UNLV, he completed 4 of 22 passes. yup, you read that correctly. the USF pass defense is porous, allowing 8.1 yards/att. Eget may have himself a huge game. the one caveat... he's missing top WR Nash, who opted out to prepare for the draft. Nash had 104 receptions, so that's a big loss.

SJ St doesn't do much on the ground. their top 2 guys average 4.8 & 4.3 yards/carry and they rushed for less than 1,000 yards as a team. USF may be able to drop 10 guys in coverage.

ok, big question mark for USF's offense. it sounds like their original starting QB (Brown) is healthy again and may start. someone may be able to find even better info, but i'm trying to keep this short. that would be a big deal, although he may be rusty. he had 132 attempts before his injury and didn't throw a pick. that would be huge, because SJ St led the country with 20 INTs. their other qb (Archie) really struggled, throwing 9 TDs and 9 INTs.

USF has an excellent RB in Kelly Joiner. he averaged 7.0 yards/carry (!). for some bizarre reason, he only had 6 more carries than Nay'Quan Wright, who only averaged 4.8 yards/carry.

alright, i'm going with my gut here and backing USF. i'm hoping the loss of Nash is huge (it should be) and REALLY hoping that Brown is starting for USF and he's not that rusty. his biggest issue is taking sacks (looking at his 4 starts that weren't against Bethune-Cookman, he took 4 sacks in 3 of those games). However, SJ St only has 23 sacks in 12 games.

alright, let's just go with...

(just saw the line dropped a point while i was typing this. A) must be Billy Walters found out who I'm betting and B) even more reason to believe that Brown is starting.)

USF 1H (ML) 4 to win 4
USF (ML) 4 to win 4

and let's get really crazy... parlay USF +3.5/Over 61.5 2 to win 2.8

Hey, Merry Christmas, everyone!!!

 

[yanno]

Just a quick FYI about this first year coach of the SJ Spartans.

San Jose State head coach Ken Niumatalolo, a Hawaii native, played QB for the Rainbow Warriors from 1986-89 and started his coaching career there as a graduate assistant from 1990-94.

 

[ageecee]

So is Brown playing tonite for USF?

 

[Smitty]

one point i forgot to include... this is the 2nd straight year for SJ St in the hawai'i bowl. as a general rule, i like betting against teams in the same bowl back-to-back years. it loses its luster. "ho hum, we're back in hawai'i again."

 

[Smitty]

So is Brown playing tonite for USF?

if he's not, i'm probably in big trouble.

i did a quick search and couldn't find anything definitive. only "head coach Alex Golesh said he has been practicing and is as healthy as he's been."

based on the line, and the late movement, i gotta believe he's starting. now, that doesn't mean he'll play the whole game. they may still give archie some snaps. but based on his numbers... i hope not.

 

[JustFootball]

Not at all trying to hijack Smitty's thread, but found this on Action sports. Their writeups have been very helpful and their picks pretty solid. Anyway, just underscoring some of what Smitty shared:

The loss of Nash will have a major impact on a San Jose State team that was ultra-reliant on the receiver. More than 35% of passing yards and target share went to the NFL-bound talent, leaving Stutzmann to create a new passing attack against USF.

The usage of 12 personnel could come into play, as tight ends Jackson Canaan and Jacob Stewart combined for 79 targets out of the slot.

Expect Lockhart to get additional attention from USF's nickel defense without Nash on the field. The Bulls finished top-45 in pass breakups but outside the top 100 in explosives, so the Spartans' uptempo offense could either experience some three-and-outs or explosive scores.

Ultimately, USF's rushing attack will find plenty of success against San Jose State using inside zone and counter. The Spartans defense finished dead last in Line Yards and Stuff Rate against one of the worst schedules in the country.

There are whispers that Brown may return for the Hawaii Bowl — a scenario that would further increase the Bulls' advantage on the ground.

Look for points on the San Jose State side to come after the offense adjusts to life without Nash, which could create an opportunity for a second-half over.

Pick: USF +3 or Better

 

[Smitty]

Not at all trying to hijack Smitty's thread, but found this on Action sports. Their writeups have been very helpful and their picks pretty solid. Anyway, just underscoring some of what Smitty shared:

The loss of Nash will have a major impact on a San Jose State team that was ultra-reliant on the receiver. More than 35% of passing yards and target share went to the NFL-bound talent, leaving Stutzmann to create a new passing attack against USF.

The usage of 12 personnel could come into play, as tight ends Jackson Canaan and Jacob Stewart combined for 79 targets out of the slot.

Expect Lockhart to get additional attention from USF's nickel defense without Nash on the field. The Bulls finished top-45 in pass breakups but outside the top 100 in explosives, so the Spartans' uptempo offense could either experience some three-and-outs or explosive scores.

Ultimately, USF's rushing attack will find plenty of success against San Jose State using inside zone and counter. The Spartans defense finished dead last in Line Yards and Stuff Rate against one of the worst schedules in the country.

There are whispers that Brown may return for the Hawaii Bowl — a scenario that would further increase the Bulls' advantage on the ground.

Look for points on the San Jose State side to come after the offense adjusts to life without Nash, which could create an opportunity for a second-half over.

Pick: USF +3 or Better

always appreciate more info.

man, watching archie play quarterback is PAINFUL. no wonder he threw so many INTs... he is very late on every throw. it's only a matter of time until SJ St starts getting some of them.

 

[Smitty]

i suppose it ain't gonna happen but... i'm rooting for a christmas miracle... please put brown back in!!

 

[kickserv]

USF 1H (ML) 4 to win 4
USF (ML) 4 to win 4

and let's get really crazy... parlay USF +3.5/Over 61.5 2 to win 2.8

Profit for Smitty...Smitty is amazing.

 

[oxnardca1]

Damn you SMITTY....... CHEERS....

 

[Slumdog]

I never thought winning could be so painful. Holy crap !!! Nice going smitty

 

[oxnardca1]

I never thought winning could be so painful. Holy crap !!! Nice going smitty

I would rather take the pleasure of pain, than the AGONY OF DEFEAT!!

I think that was from Wide World of Sports!!

A win, will always be better than a loss, Brother

 

[Slumdog]

“The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat “ !!!!!! lol. ABC wide world of sports was a great era.

You were close but still a great adaptation !!

Big day today fellas !! Keep the same energy !! let’s fire !!!!

 

[Smitty]

just watched the final 7 minutes of regulation and the OTs. good thing i set it to record an extra hour. was just barely enough. wow, that was certainly a christmas gift to all of us. and quite the roller coaster in OT.

 

[Slumdog]

Yea. We won and lost that bet about ten times. 😂

 

[rocky mountain]

Yea. We won and lost that bet about ten times. 😂

Just woke up not to brag but got 8 solid hours. What did I miss?

 

[Slumdog]

Mannnnn. I had so much sugar at dinner. Couldn’t sleep !! 😂

Dude. The game was torture. You have no idea. No idea. I think it almost lasted 5 hours. 😳

 

[ageecee]

Wanted to take San Jose -2.5 for 2nd half but passed. Easy cover for them 2nd half

 

[Smitty]

Mannnnn. I had so much sugar at dinner. Couldn’t sleep !! 😂

Dude. The game was torture. You have no idea. No idea. I think it almost lasted 5 hours. 😳

they had the game scheduled for 3 1/2 hours. i set the DVR for an extra hour. i had about 5 minutes left on the recording when it ended.

when USF scored in the first OT to go up 34-27, i was trying to remember what # i had in that parlay. i knew it was 60.5 or 61.5. once i realized what i had, i said "shit, i need SJ St to send this to a 2nd OT."

the good news was once it went to a 3rd OT, the parlay was clinched. woot woot.