- Feb 26, 2001
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hedge my parlay?
- Thread starter tborg85
- Start date
1800 winner if NE wins 1900 if Carolina wins...I would have bet to win both Carolina ml myself
- Feb 26, 2001
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I like Parlays, I've hit some big ones, I do it cause they are fun and give a little rush. My biggest rule,
Is never ever put the Sunday Night or Monday Night game in there. My book that I parlay with gives 25 to 1 on a five teamer if all - 110 juice. So if he puts in a 100 five teamer he wins $2500. Assuming he really wanted it to be a 6 teamer with the Pats, he is still better off betting the 5 teamer and then putting 2600 on it taking the Pats to win a total of 4800 something. Just my 2 cents.
There are times I have hedged Parlays, sometimes I just throw them in not looking at game times and all of a sudden I'm down to the last one and it hasn't started yet. I hedge cause I think law of average I am not going to hit and plus if it does lose, I'd be pissed for not taking some type of profit.
- Feb 26, 2001
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If you are gambling just for fun, this really doesn't apply. But if you are trying to maximize your advantage you do not hedge unless you feel it is now a +EV bet to make the hedge bet on its own.
What makes the difference 4, 5, 6 teamer, if he wanted to include NE ? Hell, NE could have been his best bet on the 6 teamer or any other parlay he might have played. Personally I would have bought the half to make it +3 in the first place and tried to middle with a ML Carolina at the end. To each their own, I respect all opinions. It's your money.
- Feb 26, 2001
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I DID THE MATH. USING HIS PARLAY. THE SAME QUESTION COULD BE ASKED.
1. 4 TEAMS SHOULD I HEDGE ON SD STATE?
2. 5 TEAMS SHOULD I HEDGE ON NO SAINTS?
3. 6 TEAMS SHOULD I HEDGE ON NE PATS?
The question of hedging, which comes UP ocassionally on here, can come up on any parlay. I do respect your all or nothing opinion on the matter though.
I gamble conservatively, go figure, always take profit and if you can middle do it, its a fun hobby to me and I bet small. I would have bought it up to 3 on the original bet and bet the Carolina ML to go for winning both or bet at halftime trying to win both
I hope he hedged
I hope he hedged
- Feb 26, 2001
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Good analysis. No more of this numbers boy talk to me. You can't spell and you don't know shit about numbers.
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You don't understand what I am saying. When you gamble you are not gambling at even money. You pay juice. When you parlay you are still paying juice everytime you add a team into the parlay. By adding the extra team and then hedging it you are paying juice either way and cutting into your profit. He shouldn't have added the extra monday night game if he was going to hedge out of it anyway. What is the point? You are giving money back to the sportsbook. You should only hedge if it is a life changing amount or if the new wager is now a +EV wager.
This, basically what I was saying. There is no point what so ever to make a parlay of any size and have the last leg sitting by itself on Monday Night. Shouldn't be hard to figure out. Trampled going to send you an email
I understand it. My point is the last 3 games on his parlay were all stand alone plays. You're earlier comment made it sound (to me) like adding a 6th team was different than adding the 5th (or 4th). No problem . I almost never play parlays, but when I do I often hedge if i think I have an advantage. Good luck. Nice listening to other's theories
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Sorry if you took it that way. Yes, it is no different at all. My point is if you are hedging out on anything you are giving back some of your advantage unless you think the hedge out bet is now value on its own.
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