Outright plays (1.5pts):
David Toms to win 12/1 e.w. @ Stan James, BetInternet, BlueSq, UKBetting and Totalbet
The event switches to the Sunrise course at Mirasol this year so there is no course form, but two players look particularly overpriced and one does have a good record on Tom Fazio courses. Toms won the inaugural Wachovia Championship in North Carolina last year on a course that Fazio substantially redesigned and with this being a typical Fazio "second-shot golf course", it should suit Toms in particular. Having now almost completely recovered from his hand problems earlier in the year, he has shown very good form in the last two weeks and justifies his price.
Chris DiMarco to win 28/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
This is a standout price as he is generally available for much less elsewhere (as low as 16/1). He has a good all-round game and is distance off the tee is not going to be too much of a factor this week, he will be competitive as it on the green where he is amongst the best in the game. He had a top-10 finish on the Sunset course last year, finished 11th last week at Doral and 2nd in the FBR Open last month, so there is good reason to expect him to be competitive in this field.
Steve Flesch to win 66/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Flesch's recent record in Florida may not been particularly impressive, but this is a much larger price than expected for a player of his calibre in such a weak field. He may not be the best player when in contention, but at least he finally ditched the title of the 'PGA Tour player who has won the most money without winning a title' when he won the HP Classic of New Orleans last year. His record in this event before 2002 is also supportive: 7th, 19th and 15th. So in a fairly open event with a weak field, these odds look goof for a player who does tend to get himself into contention rather a lot.
David Toms to win 12/1 e.w. @ Stan James, BetInternet, BlueSq, UKBetting and Totalbet
The event switches to the Sunrise course at Mirasol this year so there is no course form, but two players look particularly overpriced and one does have a good record on Tom Fazio courses. Toms won the inaugural Wachovia Championship in North Carolina last year on a course that Fazio substantially redesigned and with this being a typical Fazio "second-shot golf course", it should suit Toms in particular. Having now almost completely recovered from his hand problems earlier in the year, he has shown very good form in the last two weeks and justifies his price.
Chris DiMarco to win 28/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
This is a standout price as he is generally available for much less elsewhere (as low as 16/1). He has a good all-round game and is distance off the tee is not going to be too much of a factor this week, he will be competitive as it on the green where he is amongst the best in the game. He had a top-10 finish on the Sunset course last year, finished 11th last week at Doral and 2nd in the FBR Open last month, so there is good reason to expect him to be competitive in this field.
Steve Flesch to win 66/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Flesch's recent record in Florida may not been particularly impressive, but this is a much larger price than expected for a player of his calibre in such a weak field. He may not be the best player when in contention, but at least he finally ditched the title of the 'PGA Tour player who has won the most money without winning a title' when he won the HP Classic of New Orleans last year. His record in this event before 2002 is also supportive: 7th, 19th and 15th. So in a fairly open event with a weak field, these odds look goof for a player who does tend to get himself into contention rather a lot.
