Honda Classic

[lostinamerica]

Chris Riley(28/1) (1/5 for Top 4) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365

The stage is set for a weekend meltdown that could make Olympia Fields look like a Sunday stroll. Pettersson having the biggest 36 hole lead on tour this year adds extra value to that prospect . . . -4 being good for second place would not surprise me, and although it may not get quite that ugly, I'll be very surprised if the winning score is below 280. I'm kind of liking the position of Chad Campbell and Craig Perks . . . While Faxon and Jacobson seem well disposed and well positioned to roll with the punches, no one is immune to going the wrong way on this unloved beast. Riley may not come close to having the right stuff, either, but that's my man for the job.

GL

 

[Ice Picks]

Saturday 2-ball matches...

Saturday 2-ball matches...

1. Senden +150 [72-66] over Parnevik [66-72] ...LOST

2. Armour +110 [69-69] over Hensby [65-73]...LOST

3. Ogilvie +110 [73-70] over Pappas [69-72]...LOST

4. Donald -120 [70-69] over Day [69-70]...LOST


Good Luck...IP:shrug:

ADDING:

5. Parry +138 [73-68] over Campbell [71-70] ...LOST

- going with last weeks winner, who admittedly is a streaky player...his scorecard shows he birdied 4 of the first 6 holes yesterday to go from +1 after Thursday to comfortably maiking the cut...

I MAY AS WEEL FLIP A COIN - YOU CANT DO WORSE THAN 0-5 [unless it is 0-6]....At least it was a 100% day...100% wrong...

That is my worst day on this board, and I will try and get out of the slump when the Masters comes around....

 

[lal2000]

I'm sitting very comfortably right now with Hamilton @ 150/1 and Jacobson @ 50/1 - both at SkyBet - unposted, but live.

So, my question again Guys - what criteria do you use to decide what to post and what to keep back? I know I often tend to take a shotgun approach on some of these tournies but it has paid off over time. A bit of discussion on this subject would help get us through the weekend perhaps?

LT

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I don't know what you got wagered but if I had him @ 150/1
despite nice lead we saw what happen to Petterson yesterday so you have lots of room for hedge. I would look @ 5dimes offer of field vs Hamilton @ -103 for small hedge.
---and while here--- got a wager I like @ wsex in 4th rd today,
Tanaka +100 and + 1/2 stroke vs Couples.
The only thing worse than Couples 2 year history of 4th rd scor ave is his 2 year scrambling stats. Very important here with these greens especially today with winds projected to start at 17mph.
Tanaka a little short off tee to my liking here but usually steady and I'll take a rd of 2 over from him today and take my chances.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
field vs Hamilton +105 @ Oly

 

[lostinamerica]

SUNDAY:

PARLAY Campbell(-107) over Leonard w/ Rose(-115) over Faxon for 1* @ 5dimes @ 2.62/1
- The boys I had my eye on are playing together, in case the balance needed any tipping.

GL

 

[Another Steve]

Great Hit

Great Hit

With Hamilton, 150-1 Wow

Gotta LOVE it, sorry couldn't help myself.

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final update: 0-3; -4.50pts

Toms 25th
DiMarco 30th
Flesch 30th

Seems a long time since Flesch was 3rd after the 1st round - he normally fades much later in the week! All three finished within six shots of the places, but never looked like closing the gap over the weekend.

Matchups - Final update: 2-3-0; -2.21pts

Allenby/Parnevik WON by 6
Ames/Ogilvy LOST by 4
Leonard/Sabbatini LOST by 3
Ames/Cejka LOST by 1
Leonard/Parnevik WON by 1

Disappointing performance from Ames who missed his first cut in six months. Continue to struggle on this Tour in 2004.

PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 4-26; -31.85pts
Matchups: 27-29; -19.10pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 17-79; +3.43pts
Matchups: 93-84; -21.61pts

 

[lal2000]

DTB - Thanks for the advice on the hedge - a nice play. I've been burned numerous times on occasions such as these and it's a good backstop to a few bogeys on the last nine!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

With your licks on outrights maybe it is not good idea to ever hedge --you certainly have had some dandys. :grins:

My take on hedges though-Especially when you got 150/1 shot in the lead with 1 day left, is you need to be rewarded for selection and I find myself much more frustrated with no return should they falter than a diminished return if they win. I am probably more conservative than most---and have never had 150 longshot leading after 3 days but given your situation with the 4 stroke lead I would have probably hedged 1/3 of possible winnings being satisfied with 100/1 if he wins, and a nice return on hedge if he loses--leaving only 2 outcomes--a good day or a great day.

Congrats on the GREAT DAY:thumb:

 

[matchmaker]

Hi Guys
One OUTRIGHT Play for me on

ROBERT GAMEZ
1/2 Unit E/W @ 100-1 [William Hill] 1/5 12345

Stakes should be kept to a minimum this week,as course form is non existent..From the reports on the new course,I dont think with the dog legs and tight fairways on this course that big hitters will be at home.
Think its more about being a straight driver and decent putter.
Gamez finished T28 last year,and is coming off a decent show at Doral.Threatened numerous times last season that a win wasnt too far away,and is putting and driving the ball well.
Good Luck

Update
Missed Cut
Loss:1u