Honda Classic

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Rd 2
Toms over Herron @ Unibet
Herron, T - Toms, D
2nd Round, 18 holes
Honda Classic. Tie no bet. 2 1.96

@ 5D
Sport / Period: PGA Golf / Game
Line:
Bart Bryant (2nd Rnd) 2/29/2008 7:17:01 AM - (EST)
-130
Opponent: Tim Herron (2nd Rnd)

Sport / Period: PGA Golf / Game
Line:
Brett Quigley (2nd Rnd) 2/29/2008 7:53:01 AM - (EST)
-115
Opponent: Brian Davis (2nd Rnd)

Sport / Period: PGA Golf / Game
Line:
Stephen Leaney (2nd Rnd) 2/29/2008 8:02:01 AM - (EST)
-115
Opponent: Chris DiMarco (2nd Rnd)

Sport / Period: PGA Golf / Game
Line:
Billy Mayfair (2nd Rnd) 2/29/2008 6:50:01 AM - (EST)
-125
Opponent: Joe Ogilvie (2nd Rnd)

 

[Stanley]

DTB,

Any thoughts on the AM-PM split today? The wind in the morning yesterday was calmer than forecast. I presume that is the reason for the unexpected split yesterday.

Thanks.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Like AM Stan

but loved PM yesterday and was wrong--

Yesterday figured no one in am would go through practice routines with 13 mph and 39 degree wind chill-and they would be at huge disadvantage-
but funny thing happened in PM as wind was about the same but warmer--but got trapped again on wind direction doing 180 and played much tougher right when PM group teed off.

Look at this wind direction chart from yesterday-- -the timing of direction change is uncanny.
http://www.wunderground.com/history...tml?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

I was extremely lucky to get out of it at 4-6--and was licking my chops prior to start of rd. Had about 3 more I didn't post and all lost.

 

[Stanley]

I read it the same... was hesitant to back Marino in the morning against Goosen in the afternoon, but Goosen is so bad at the moment ...

I see it is forecast to shift 90 degrees this afternoon, so I have three more plays that I like, but have skipped as they are playing in the afternoon and their opponent in the morning.

Round 2 plays (1pt):

John Senden to beat Lucas Glover -105 @ Five Dimes
Senden's record after a poor 1st round is quite exceptional: in the last 4 years he has been 100th or worse after round 1 on 21 occasions, but has never shot worse than 72 in the 2nd round and never finished lower down the leaderboard than he started it at the beginning of round 2. Few players have such impressive records and Glover is not one of them

Ken Duke to beat Chez Reavie -120 @ Five Dimes
Opposing Reavie is quite the opposite to Senden: he averages 75.8 and never improved his leaderboard position in the 2nd round when in a similar position on the PGA Tour

Steve Marino to beat Chad Campbell -105 @ Five Dimes
Backing Marino again. He wasn't at his best from tee-to-green yesterday, but he still got it the course in a good score and he is a player who highest rank for per-round scoring is in the 2nd round (26th over the last 12 months)

Bill Haas to beat Carl Pettersson -110 @ Five Dimes
Two players in completely different form over the last six weeks. Haas has beaten Pettersson in the 2nd round on all four occasions over that period and by an average in excess of four shots. With Pettersson hitting only 6/18 greens in regulation yesterday (joint-worst in the whole field), I can't see him bouncing back in this 2nd round either

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Think you might have best idea --with comparable tees Stan--been 2 rds so far this year I thought was advantageous on tee times and been bit both times on wind change.

I hope Senden shoots 59 for you today--he was my only top 5 play and has looooong way to go.

 

[orient]

Crane to beat Toms/Herron +160 at Unibet 3/10

 

[CANADA MAN]

2008: +13.92 units
Outrights: 2-21 (+2.78)
Matchups: 51-35-5 (+11.14) (59.3%)

4-1-1 for the week - profit of 2.65 units.


ROUND 3 MATCHUPS: (pinnacle)
S. Marino over J. Kelly -130 PUSH
J. Coceres over B. Quigley -125 WON
J. Mallinger over D. Hart -115 LOST


:canada1

 

[Whalers Rule]

Third round plays

Adamonis +100 over Garrigus
Gamez -112 over Quigley
Sheehan +100 over Curtis
Leonard -113 over Perry

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Prob should pass rest of tourney--while plays here not been that disaterous been taking lumps on non posted ones--

could choke Wilson doubling last hole (par 5) losing 72 holes to both Hass and Gore by a stroke

3rd rd @ Pinn

Golf
The Honda Classic
3rd Round Matchups
M. Calcavecchia vs C. Pettersson
709. M. Calcavecchia -105

Don't know how Pettersson has scored this well hitting 50% of fairways and 36% of greens.
Somehow has managed to miss all the water taking toll on others. Calc hitting 75% both fairway and greens--

 

[sports student]

3rd round at 5 dimes:

Hoch-118 over Thompson

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (1pt):

Matt Jones to beat Brian Davis -120 @ Pinnacle and Carib [and widely available elsewhere at lower odds or with 'ties lose']
Brian Davis leading a PGA Tour event after two rounds? That has to be a lay opportunity! I can only two instances of this previously: 2005 Daily Telegraph Dunlop Masters (European Tour) when he shot 73 in the 3rd round; 1996 Norwegian Open (European Challenge Tour) when he shot 76 in the 3rd round. Jones has more experience of this current experience from the Nationwide Tour and that should count today

Boo Weekley to beat Camilo Villegas -115 @ Carib
But for consecutive double-bogeys in the middle of his round yesterday, Weekley could have been very much in contention for this event. He bounced back in his second-nine yesterday and I expect him to do continue to do so today - he is in much better form and he does lead Villegas 9-3-1 h2h in the 3rd round over the past year

Carl Pettersson to beat Mark Calcavecchia -105 @ Pinnacle
I lost the play on Pettersson yesterday as I didn't see how he could recover his game enough from hitting just 6/18 greens in regulation on day one (plus he finished with an EIGHT in that round) and, to some extent, I was right: he only hit 7/18 greens in regulation on day two ... yet he still shot 66. He has taken only 41 putts over two rounds - the 2nd-best is 50 - and he, of course, leads this week's putts per GIR stats by some distance as well. I think it is more likely that he will hit a few more greens today than his putter go cold, so I'll back today. He is the better player as well!

Don't like the fact that DTB has posted the opposite side of this play and I had the same reasons for opposing Pettersson yesterday. I list my plays in declining order of confidence, so that shows Pettersson is a bit of an unknown for today ... my hunch is better tee-to-green, but it's only a hunch

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Good Luck Stan--I certainly haven't felt comfortable on anything after 1st rd.

 

[Tommyjay]

Crane over Coceres +100 Round 3

The irritating Crane is rounding into form nicely, while Coceres is also. This is not a hunch bet. I believe Crane to do well this weekend and next.

 

[sports student]

Crane -137 over Coceres 3rd round at 5 dimes.

not as good a line as you Tommyjay but pulled out a tie with Hoch so going to add this. Believe there is a big gap between the 2.

 

[Tommyjay]

I love it when 2 or more of us are on the same matchup, makes me feel confident.

Let's get this one Sports Student.

 

[THE CINCH]

Match-ups: 12-8 (+0.84)


4th round Match-ups:

A. Oberholser -115 over C. Pettersson LOSS

:spotting: :spotting: :spotting: :spotting: :spotting:

GLTA!!

 

[CANADA MAN]

2008: +13.77 UNITS
Outrights: 2-21 (+2.78)
Matchups: 52-36-6 (+10.99) (59.1%)

...5-2-2 for the week - profit of 2.50 units


ROUND 4 MATCHUPS: (pinnacle)
K. Perry over J. Leonard +110 WON
A. Oberholser over C. Pettersson -115 LOST
A. Cejka over K. Ferrie -120 WON


:canada1

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

4th rd
Senden -110 over Austin

 

[Stanley]

Already had that one pencilled in

Round 4 plays (1pt):

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Matt Jones -112 @ Five Dimes
Calc has an impressive record when leading from the front. He has held at least a share of the lead with one round to play ten times on the PGA Tour, never shooting more than 71 in the final round, winning seven times and finishing 2nd in two of the remaining three occasions. Jones has been in this situation twice on the Nationwide Tour and failed to win either time

Anthony Kim to beat Peter Lonard +120 @ Ladbrokes
I just can't see how Lonard can be made favourite in this matchup. Kim may not be in great form this year, but he has been better tee-to-green than Lonard so far this week and in terms of 4th round scoring average, he is ranked 4th over the past 12 months

Ben Crane to beat Jose Coceres -115 @ Pinnacle
Top-10 for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation this week, Crane deserves to be near the top of the leaderboard. He had even taken the lead outright until an ugly section on his back nine yesterday, but he already has a 4th place finish this year and looks more likely to match that than Coceres who has relied in the short stick to keep him in contention

John Senden to beat Woody Austin -105 @ Carib
Senden is a good player to back when out of contention and he showed that in the 2nd round when he 67 to make the cut when many others would have put in less effort after an opening 77. That is enough to earn him a top-10 ranking in 4th round scoring average over the past 12 months and he has already beaten Austin in both their common final rounds this year

 

[lostinamerica]

Sunday:

Calcavecchia(-130) over Jones

GL