Honda Classic

[Stanley]

Course: TPC at Heron Bay, Coral Springs, Florida
Yardage: 7268
Par: 72 (four par-fives)
USGA Rating: 74.9
Greens: Tifdwarf Bermudagrass and Emerald Bentgrass - 7,000 sq.ft (Tour average: 6,000 sq.ft)

GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Past Winners:
2001 - Jesper Parnevik
2000 - Dudley Hart
1999 - Vijay Singh
1998 - Mark Calcavecchia
1997 - Stuart Appleby
1996 - Tim Herron
1995 - Mark O'Meara
1994 - Nick Price
1993 - Fred Couples
1992 - Corey Pavin

 

[bettingmad]

John Daly 25/1 Sporting Odds (from limited opening shows...)
Had the 'Wild Thing' in mind for this for a long time. 11th, 16th, 27th & 4th over this course and in good form this year with 4th places at Phoenix & Buick Invitational

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Outrights
1 unit total e/w C Smith 66/1 @ 365
To place only @ SIA 1/2 unit
Perry 7/1
Appleby 10/1

Will wait and see what Oly has,might add another place wager.
Had overlooked Appleby entirely initially till reading Clives take and agree its hard to discount his course form.Any of you Euro mates have any opinion on Lonard as to last weeks performance.
just a flash or is he that good?This kiwi Perks has me amazed.
Was paired with him for 2 days when packin Spikes bag in the back then Hooters Jorden Tour event here locally and other than his length off the tee he was not impressive to say the least.

Brad Elder withdrew from the Honda Classic on Monday and was replaced by Fred Wadsworth

 

[bettingmad]

DTB,
Lonard is decent consistent player who seems to enjoy bad conditions. I have not always been impressed with his final day scoring but he did alright on Sunday. If you would be interested in a file of his finishes over the last few years... drop your email to my site and I'll send it when I get home.

It was noticeable that in the wind last week several of our down under friends were higher up the board than usual... Lonard, Appleby, Parry, Perks, Allan, etc.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

email sent. Aussies should rule @ Jacobs Creek lookin for you mates to have some real ringers in the Buy.com this week

 

[bettingmad]

DTB
Do you have Excel?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

YEP

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays:

Chris DiMarco to win 22/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Nothing wrong with DiMarco's form last week ... for 18 holes. At the end of the day, he only just made the cut and went through the motions over the weekend. He has been in great form all year, just the one bad week when he missed the cut in the Sony Open, so maybe last week's loss of form will be just as brief. The fact that all five previous Honda Classics have been won by a Florida resident also helps this selection.

Brad Faxon to win 28/1 e.w. @ Bet365, BetInternet, Sportingbet or Victor Chandler
The next two selections avoided the winds of last week and should benefit as a result. Not quite in the same form as DiMarco, but not far short, Faxon has finished in the top-3 in both of his last two tournaments. This course is perceived to be a big hitter's paradise, but the last two winners - Parnevik and Hart - did rank very highly in the putting stats at the time as well.

Kenny Perry to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, BetInternet, Sportingbet or Blue Square
Deceptively long and top of the greens in regulation stats, Perry looks far better value at this price than the likes of Mickelson or Love. Top-30 only in the past two years, looking at a rejuvenated and fresh Kenny to play considerably better around Heron Bay this time.

 

[bettingmad]

DTB,
Home now and have the file but no email from you.. I pick up anything at @bettingmad.com

 

[rio]

Not the prettiest of courses and will take some watching if the 'money carriers' are not in contention. That said I found this event a little easier to narrow down than some of late and the front few in the betting have to be taken on.

Enough rambling; it's Stuart Appleby 33/1 and Chris Smith 66/1 for me at present. As has been alluded to Appleby's course form is impressive and the general impression looking at his game is that this course suits; but for last weeks final round he was showing up nicely back in Florida.

Smith has been taking a peak at the leaders recently and on a course that should suit (good effort last year) I take him to go a lot closer this week at a nice price.

Did have Herron and Flesch in mind for this event but neither has really looked menacing to date. Thought about Dimarco and Perry ( Kenny that is ) but may go ultra speculative and include the under achiever Tommy Tolles. He has a fair record in this event and there must be some 200/1 around somewhere.

Good Luck.

Rio.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

72 holes
Sposa +110 over Ames @ Cascade
Hometown boy should have plenty fan support.

Toms -110 over Goosen @ Cascade
Dimarco -110 over Goosen @ SIA
Will take a couple shots at "MR" Goosen.Hopin he gets peeved on this wide open venue where short accurate drives will be of little value.

Camelot should start droppin lines any time now.Got some good matches if one can catch some good #'s.

 

[Steve Golf]

Win or lose, Mickelson surely has to be the least appetizing favourite of the season so far?

Daly at 25/1 is my main hope - bettingmad has already stated the case for him. I expect to see Weir and Furyk thereabouts also.

You can pretty much name your own odds for Chad Campbell but I reckon the battlefield-promoted Texan has a chance of a good finish this week. His past form here is woeful but he was a different player back then and I actually think Heron Bay might suit nowadays. He?s out early on Thursday so maybe he?ll get lucky with the weather too.

Finally, a real hunch pick (and no more) is David Sutherland to perhaps be worth a look in 18-hole betting. He has had a few fair efforts here and may just be inspired by his brother?s win in the Matchplay the other week.

 

[steved]

Gone for Furyk(28/1 VC), Appleby(33/1 everywhere, which is a worry) and Perks (80/1 in places)..
Thought Perks looked good, but others seem not so sure, 2nd last year..

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Six Drop out

Jim Furyk is among six who withdrew Tuesday. Mark Brooks, Brad Elder, David Peoples, Scott Simpson and Esteban Toledo also are out. Alternates in: Stephen Gagluff, Fred Wadsworth, Doug Barron, Richie Coughlan, Bradley Hughes and Spike McRoy.

Bmad i sent it .com,both were returned. You can get me @ the MIS in profile but will be headed to FLA on thusday.Got a page I use for golf links and email when out of town,dogsthatbark.com which has email link on page.

 

[Stanley]

72-hole plays (all plays 1 unit unless stated):

Kenny Perry to beat Stuart Appleby -125 @ WSEX
Appleby has a terrific record on this course, but he is woefully out of form. His 33rd place finish last week was by far his best performance of the year. Have to side with the in-form Perry.

Kenny Perry to beat Steve Flesch -115 @ Bet365
Similar story here. Flesch's record on this course is excellent, but he has not played well this year. He has broken par just 10 times from 20 rounds this year and that is not good enough at this level.

Chris DiMarco to beat Mark Calcavecchia -118 @ Easybets [2 units]
And again! A win, a runners-up spot and another top-10 finish in the last four years is in stark contrast to three missed cuts in four events since the Tour reached the mainland.

Chris DiMarco to beat John Huston -140 @ Cascade
Opposed Huston last week as his widely-regarded superior performance on the Bermuda greens of Florida did not hold true at Doral. Nor does it at Heron Bay. He finished 76th last week, 46th the week before, has an average record on this course and is easily opposed.

Per-Ulrik Johansson to beat Paul McGinley -115 @ Bet365
Opposed McGinley in his first PGA Tour event of the year - the Nissan Open, where he finished 74th - and will gladly do so again this week. No history on this course and he should struggle to make the cut. Johansson has at least played here, making the cut last year, and has produced two top-10 finishes in his last four events.

Chris Riley to beat Paul McGinley -111 @ Simon Bold
Riley has missed a lot of cuts this year - three from six starts - but has finished in the top-25 in the other events. With course finishes of 9th and 28th, this one is really down to which Riley turns up this week, but I'll take this to win far more than 50% of the time on the PGA Tour.

 

[Monarch]

Dogs That Bark, I've always thought the weakest part of Goosens game was his driving. Stats from the 2001 European Tour show Goosen ranked 19th (291 yrd av) in driving distance and 104 th (62.7% Acc) in driving accuracy. At the US Open he pretty much tried his best to take an iron off the tee wherever possible. This I feel has caused the misconception that he is a short straight shooter. I'm under the impression the layout this week offers a little more room for error, surely this plays into his hands?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Drat my impatient dumb a$$. Both Perry and Appleby quoted better place odds @ Oly.%$#@#$
Adding 1/2 unit to place @ Oly Kendall 25/1

adding 72 hole @ Cascade
Mayfair +100 over Couples
Since winning here 9 years ago Freddie has had most unforunate luck here having entered 3 times only to withdraw with bad back.
Last time was suiting up prior to 1st rd and got leg stuck in pant leg,tripped and threw back out.LOL Plus taking a lot of heat from players on new tour he's trying to start.Got 2 shots at this one, back and mental perspective.Then again he might come out fireup.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Appreciate the input Monarch.While his ave stateside was quite a bit shy of that at 284.3 it is not as bad as I thought and the stats definately confirm your take on his accuracy.Thanks

PGA TOUR
STANDARD STATS Rank Additional Stats
Driving Distance 284.3 Tot. Dist. - 13,647 Tot. Drvs. - 48
Driving Accuracy Percentage 60.7% Fwys Hit - 204 Poss. Fwys - 336
Greens in Regulation Pct. 65.0% Greens Hit - 281 # Holes - 432
Putting Average 1.779 GIR Putts - 500 Greens Hit - 281
Eagles (Holes per) 126.0 # Holes - 504 # Eagles - 4
Birdie Average 3.36 # Birdies - 94 Tot. Rnds. - 28
Scoring Average 69.94 Tot. Strks - 1,987 Tot. Adj. - 28.728-
Sand Save Percentage 41.7% # Saves - 15 # Bunkers - 36
Total Driving 1,998 Total rank from stats 1 & 2
Money Leaders $1,126,985 47th - -

 

[bettingmad]

DTB,
Sent to your .com

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Got it. THANKS Good stuff

 

[ormond80]

9-4 year to date. 72 hole matchup @ Honda:

Faxon -100 over Daly
Faxon -100 over Weir @ Millennium


Happy Gaming