Honda Classic

[Monarch]

1st Rd 3 balls:

1st Rd 3 balls:

RILEY - G Day - Muehr 11/10 @ Hills - 1 Unit.

FLESCH - JP Hayes - Micheel EVENS @ UK - 1 Unit

 

[Clive]

Busy week, but manged to get some money on!

Appleby 40
Smith 80
Daly 25

Believe Appleby will leave current form behind this week. Can't believe I'm backing Daly at 25/1..things have changed!

 

[bettingmad]

Going for a match bet at Grand Central... Craig Parry +100 over Jerry Kelly. Although a winner on tour earlier this year Kelly is not a regular visitor and his course form is poor with a missed cut in 1997 and 2000. Parry is a regular in this event and although he too has a couple of missed cuts he can also offer a 5th place and a 2nd when played at Eagle Trace - his recent form is also excellent with 8 top 18's on the bounce.

 

[rio]

No 200/1 Tolles so we'll give him a miss and go for Bobby Damron at 125/1.

Like Tolles in his 3 ball tomorrow at 2/1 or better. Same comment applies to Sutton; and Flesch at Evs.

 

[Monarch]

Was fully intent on avoiding the outrights in this event, but for the sake of televisual interest will join the bandwagon (just a little late) and play one man:

DALY 20/1 @ Spodds - 1 Unit ew.

 

[wannabe whale]

Don't have a good feel for this week-lying low:highest numbers seem to be at Oly though:

Outrights:
Love 35-1

Longshots-really long:
Calc 50-1
Hart 80-1
Durant 140-1

72 Hole Matchups:
Love -140 Over Langer **Best**
Hart -125 Over Franco
CParry +110 Over Kelly
Lonard -140 Over Perks
Geiberger +125 Over Gay

Good Luck this W/End

 

[lostinamerica]

Matchups:
YTD: 14-9-2 (+3.25*)
LW: 2-1-1
Outrights:
YTD: 0-6 (-2.40*)

By the weekend, deposits will hopefully be received and spread out over Olympic, 5dimes, Bet365USA (and Camelot).

Every step of the way, Woods has eclipsed the standards laid down by Nicklaus by a good wide margin. With longevity as perhaps the surpassing signature of the Nicklaus legacy, Jack still has a chance. Seve be yanking somebody's chain.


Matchups @ 1*:

Parnevik(+130) over Mickelson @ 5dimes
Solid candidate and odds to oppose Mickelson in a spot that seems poorly suited for Phil to flash the heights of his talent. Coming off a good week, I think Jesper is determined and confident enough for some defense of his title before the needle on his tank reaches empty. In choosing matchups for this week, am I right to think that for this week, prior success strongly identifies those with an affinity for a course and an event lacking special appeal for others; are the elegant swingers or quick tempo artists the most susceptible to crap creeping in from last week's struggles against high winds?

Appleby(-115) over Flesch @ Olympic
Hung largely on Appleby's success here coupled with a win going away against a superior field in the Johnnie Walker only a few weeks ago.

DiMarco(-110) over Mickelson @ Olympic
Better value than +350 to finish in Top 4.

Leaving Out:
Daly(-103) over Kenny Perry @ 5dimes; Goosen(-115) over Toms @ Olympic.


Outrights to Win @ 0.40*:

Daly(28-1) @ 5dimes
On task, fresh, and a course that is to his liking.

Couples(60-1) @ Olympic
Arriving with resolve, the best longshot for my money.

GL

 

[nomad]

With a lot of people going with Daly this week at somewhat prohibitive prices I thought I'd point people in the direction of some 4 player groups from Sports.com

I quite often find that if you fancy a guy to win the tournament then sometimes generous odds in these smaller groups end up as being better value. It's quite possible that a Top 10 finish might be enough for Daly to see off Mickelson, Toms and Love.

These smaller groups seem to be a more profitable medium between outrights and 72 hole matches, or so my figures tell me.

 

[Cartman88]

Outright Plays:

Phil Mickelson each way 12-1
Davis Love each way 33-1
Steve Flesch each way 50-1

Matchups:

Faxon +100 vs Daly (2 units)

GLTA

 

[nomad]

I guess that won't apply to you then Cartman

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Carter out /T Byrum in

Light rain falling and t-storms project throughout the day.
Will forego any 1st rd plays due to weather and availability.
Everyone has same matches,same 3balls ect. I sure do miss Camelots unique matches

Other notes Parny putting "Star Wars"putter up on 1 year anniversary of win with it. Seems he deems it unlucky to play with one past a year.After 10 consecutive starts will take a break after this week.Repoerted he feels confident but was looking for a little more wind than the 11 mph projected for today.

Change of venue.
Goosen had only one tourny(17th) out of top ten in last 9 Euro events.
Stateside he failed to make it to Sat 44% of time in last 9, and carded a 34th and 37th in 5 he did.Not knockin Goose by any means as he is true champion by all sense of the word,just noting disparity of tourneys played.

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 5-1-0; +2.64 units

Perry/Appleby WON by 6 (at the cut)
Perry/Flesch WON by 4 (at the cut)
DiMarco/Calcavecchia LOST by 5
DiMarco/Huston WON by 2
Johansson/McGinley WON by 7 (at the cut)
Riley/McGinley WON by 6 (at the cut)

Outrights: 1-2; +1.00 units

DiMarco 48th
Faxon 2nd
Perry 30th

First profitable event on the PGA Tour this season! Could have been much better as well. Perry was in contention all week until the very end and DiMarco once again started very well only to give it all back. And then there was Faxon who could have won, but Kuchar was surprisingly very impressive down the stretch. But at least it was still a profitable event!

PGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 19-27; -24.14 units
Outrights: 4-23; -11.39 units

All Tours ytd
Matchups: 51-51; -17.19 units
Outrights: 17-65; +11.53 units

 

[Monarch]

Honda Summary:

Honda Summary:

Daly 58th

P/L: -2
Outrights Ytd: -11

Matchups: 1-1 +0.1
Ytd: (4-3) +2.49

Total P/L Ytd: -8.51

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Nice week Stan Thought it might be time for you to start lighting it up.
Been gone since Thursday and missed most of golf tourneys and after bringing up the very rear in golf contest it was probably fortunate I did

Matches for week 1-2-1
Sposa/Ames win
Mayfair/Couples loss
Dimarco/Goosen loss
Toms/Goosen push

Outrights Kendall 11th Perry 30th,Smith ana Appleby miss cut.
-2 1/2 units on week.
Will update ytd stats here when I get home.Forgot to bring ledger this morning.

Can't comment much on tourney as I didn't get to observe much however will have to eat crow on projection of Freddie and was glad to see him play well.Goosen finished bout as expected (30th) just coundn't get anyone to fire against him.

One trend I don't put a lot of confidence in but continued this week is previous years winner (Parny)failing to make cut.

 

[lostinamerica]

FINAL UPDATE
Matchups:
LW: 0-3
YTD: 14-12-2 (+0.00*)
Outrights:
YTD: 0-8 (-3.20*)

I was overdue for a lousy week of matchups, which extended beyond the principal selections I posted to some smaller wagers throughout the event. Hopefully it was profitable as a "learning experience".

I did benefit from an approach of testing my methodology, decision making, instincts or just fool's luck through these chump change wagers with the $0.50 minimum on futures at 5dimes (which also kept the viewing much more interesting):

$1. on Tommy Tolles @ 150/1
$2. on Robert Damron @125/1
$1. on Matt Kuchar @ 110/1
$1. on Luke Donald @ 100/1
$1. on Pat Perez @ 75/1

I think I'll continue to risk a few dollars a week along those lines.