Honda Classic

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Vijay Singh to win 14/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, Paddy Power and BetDirect
Taking a chance on Singh's injury not being a factor this week. He has remained on the list for the Ford Championship but withdrew on Monday, so it seems that he is close to fitness and would certainly not risk further injury by playing this week with the Players Championship and Masters so near. If fit, he should go close. He has won two of his last five events and has finished in the top-3 in six of his last eleven starts, plus he is a former winner of this title (1999). The move to the small greens at Mirasol should also suit these players who have good greens in regulation stats.

John Huston to win 33/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetDirect and Five Dimes
Furyk's proficiency on Bermuda greens is well-documented and he also came away with the title last week. Huston's affinity for these greens is just as well-documented and hopefully he can go one better. All six of his Tour wins have been on Bermuda greens and five of them have been in Florida. With a runners-up finish already this season (Phoenix Open) and a top-15 berth last week, there is enough evidence that the rest of his game is ready for this week as well.

Robert Allenby to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and Five Dimes
Putting is one area where Allenby struggles, though his win at the 2000 Houston Open was on Bermuda greens. Here, the move to smaller greens will benefit Allenby. He ranks in the top-10 on the Tour this year in driving distance and greens in regulation and is 5th in scoring average. He has finished in the top-6 in eight of his last fourteen strokeplay events so there can be no concerns over his form and he looks set for one of his better performances in Florida.

 

[milpalm]

Huston and Allenby look good to me as well at 33/1. But I'm not getting heavily involved as there is no previous course form.

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1 unit):

Bob Estes to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Vijay has withdrawn so will replace him with Estes who had been 40/1 with Victor Chandler before they amended their odds after Singh's withdrawal. Still think is a large price for someone who is 2nd only to Singh in the 2003 greens in regulation stats, plus he is 2nd in the driving accuracy category as well. He has been in good form this year with two top-10 finishes in three strokeplay events and should be at ease with the Bermuda greens.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

a few 72 holes
Calc over Badds -111 @ Boyles
Rose over Badds -120 @ $plays
Maru over Monty -111 @ Sportingbet
Estes over Scott +100 @ SIA

Badds ranking 89th in Girs and almost dead last in driving accuracy shouldn't bode well here as it is tough scrambling out of water.Estes ranks 2nd in GIR's so will give him shot here as Scott not too keen with flat stick.--and gonna give Maru chance for amends on last weeks wd.

 

[Stanley]

Ditto DTB

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Aaron Baddeley -111 @ BetandWin, Victor Chandler and Boyle
Tight course with lots of water around the greens ... just can't see someone who ranks 178th in driving accuracy and 155th in greens in regulation prospering on this type of course. A best finish of 57th in three Florida events is hardly encouraging for Baddeley either. Will continue to oppose him and particularly with a two-time winner of this event who is one of the few players who has had a chance to play at Mirasol prior to this week.

Jeff Sluman to beat Aaron Baddeley -115 @ WSEX
A tight course should also suit Sluman who ranks 26th in greens in regulation this year. It has been a very solid year so far with just one missed cut and no worse than 33rd in his other six starts this season. Sluman looks a good matchup player.

Justin Rose to beat Aaron Baddeley -105 @ Sirbet
Two young guns and can only see one winner. Rose has matured into an excellent golfer who very fairly finishes outside the top-10 all over the world. He should come close to securing another one this week, but this will be all over before the weekend. This is a widely available matchup and I am surprised to see Rose as the underdog.

Justin Rose to beat Cliff Kresge -111 @ BetandWin
Kresge looks a solid player who made significant advances last year and did finish in the top-10 last week, but his greens in regulation stats are weak and previous form in Florida was very poor. Just can't see anything more than a mid-table finish and that does not put him in the league of Justin Rose.

Arron Oberholser to beat Cliff Kresge -111 @ Ladbrokes
Some impressive performances by Oberholser in the past month have caught the eye. The 1st round leader in the Buick Invitational, he was 3rd at the cut in that event and 3rd at the cut in Tucson, but in both cases played very impressively to finish 4th and 6th respectively. Having never made a cut on the PGA Tour prior to this year and with his short-term career at stake, it would have been easy to collapse under the pressure. Could very well feature again this week.

 

[lostinamerica]

On the recent topic of getting the best available odds, I've sacrificed plenty of favorable numbers (in outrights and matchups) because of a more deliberate approach, although I usually have some solid ideas as early as Sunday night, so I probably pull the trigger early on only about 20% of my wagers when I think there is a substantial advantage in doing so. Nonetheless, I'm sure that in the next 24 hours I'll come across some nugget of fact or analysis (especially on the PGA Tour) that will have me convinced I should have waited until at least Wednesday night before making my final selections.

On a related topic, virtually every one of my outright plays involves making a selection and then grabbing the best odds, rather than looking for value in the odds themselves. As a case in point, the exception from this year that comes to mind was 16/1 on Sunday on Tataurangi finishing in the Top 4 (I believe) at Pebble Beach. While any interest I had going into that morning was to back rather than oppose Tataurangi, I was not looking to make any type of play like that, but the odds seemed so whacked that I had to give it a go, and he finished T-7th, but I don't think that's my style. But I've got a lot to learn.

OUTRIGHTS:

Mark Calcavecchia(50/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
- (A) - Toms was ailing two weeks ago. Hoch was hurting last week. Calcavecchia is on the mend. We know the adage. Here's the interesting history I found: "Calcavecchia?s (right) knee "popped" while he was shooting 63 on Wednesday during the Phoenix Open Pro-Am. After shooting 70-65-66, Calcavecchia limped to a 76 on Sunday at the TPC Scottsdale and plummeted to a share of 49th place. Playing hurt at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic he tied for 51st. After a week off, though, he shot 8-under par at Torrey Pines and was joint seventh in the Buick Invitational before undergoing his third arthroscopic knee surgery in nine years. His first knee surgery was in 1994 following a skiing accident. He returned to action thirteen days later and tied for ninth place at the Buick Invitational. Two years ago he was simply walking a course when he felt a pop in his left knee and underwent subsequent cartilage repair. He returned to play the Honda Classic thirteen days later and shared second place."
- (B) - Palm Beach County is eager to welcome the first appearance there by this Tour since the 1960's and the new venue must be about smack dab in Calc's (sometime? Is it Phoenix, now?) stomping grounds. Calc has apparently played the course enough to acquire a comfortable familiarity the field ain't got. The local boy is quite capable of giving this event a real Chamber of Commerce style welcome.
- (C) - Calc stands 76th in the World Golf Rankings and time is running out on making the Top 50 to qualify for The Masters.
- (D) - Like Hoch last week, looking to oppose this guy has for some time been my usual first inclination.

Kenny Perry(40/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Perry is definitely underrated in his potential and capabilities, and his streakiness is one of his calling cards, almost as much so as his dodgy putting. The checklist includes strong driving and shotmaking, no discernible antipathy for Florida, and arriving with momentum and maybe a little bit overdue. I initially thought he might be a better choice for Bay Hill, but after looking over the record and the possibilities, he got this wager this week over Estes, Allenby, Sluman, Ames, Gamez, Perks or Kendall.

Dean Wilson(100/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
It can't be much longer before some newbie emerges in the winner's circle and folks are asking, "Who is that?" This campaigner was ranked 69th in the World Golf Rankings as recently as December of 2001 and has won championships against strong competition. http://starbulletin.com/2003/01/19/news/story8.html His experience growing up in Hawaii may have contributed to some of his recent Florida success at Q School and Doral. He has been tracking well since Bmad tipped him at Tucson. He earned this wager this week over Petrovic, Oberholser or Campbell.

Adam Scott(33/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
AND Justin Rose(58/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
Between sessions with their respective swing coaches, these lads have probably spent some time recently tromping around the Sunshine State together, and I can't picture them showing up this week and having both of them firing blanks. I don't think Rose is quite as tidy as Scott in keeping a round together, although I give Justin higher marks for being a scrapper when his game isn't there. Even without Florida experience, I think there is potential here. Scott and Rose. Hey, it's an angle.

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

They didn't have WSEX lines up yet when I went to bed
and when I logged on at office today I stop in here 1st thing and see your line on Sluman vs Badds Stan, On my way to Wsex I am trying to quess how far this line has moved and how far I'll go on it.I am thinking I'll go to -130 but it is probably bout
-140 by now,wrong -150 Nice one @ Sirbet also!!

Was glad to see you go on Rose as I am not that familiar with him but did note he and Scott tied in top 25 last year @ Players Champ.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

outright place only top 5 @ Skybet 1 unit
Leonard 12/1

Still a virgin at this book will take a look at Leonard who should have right makeup with accuracy and patience for this course.
Last years break even odds for top 5 was 6.5 with 4 places in 26 events so getting a little value here if he will just perform.

 

[Stanley]

1st round play (1 unit):

Justin Rose to beat Aaron Baddeley -112 @ Five Dimes

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Hmmm Olympic went to 20 cent lines this week. Am a little concerned bout Wally's line on one matchup

 

[sports student]

I have an account at Canbet. Generally not a good golf out. Their outright win odds are criminal but once in a while you will find a good matchup. Right at this moment Rose over Baddeley is at -111 while 5 dimes has already moved to -118. For those of you who may have an account there for other sports, just remember to check their odds for matchups. Also check them more than once from the time they put them up until the start of the tourney as the odds will move around a lot there.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding prop @ WSEX to miss cut.
Badds +160

outright to place @ Oly top 4
Chad Campbell 12/1

 

[Stanley]

Adding, 1st round play (1 unit):

Justin Leonard to beat Jesper Parnevik -125 @ Sirbet

 

[bettingmad]

John Huston 33/1 W Hill
A new venue this year so will try a player with a great record in Florida with wins in the Doral, Walt Disney and Tampa Bay. 14th last week with a 74-68-68-68 and unlucky runner-up spot in the Phoenix earlier this season

 

[Stanley]

Adding, matchup play (1 unit):

Kenny Perry to beat Robert Gamez -125 @ Easybets
Don't understand this matchup. Perry is coming off a top-5 finish, while Gamez managed only to end a run of two missed cuts last week. Perry has made the cut in all but one of his last ten starts in Florida, while Gamez ended a run of five successive missed cuts in Florida last week. Perry also leads Gamez 11-2-0 h2h over the last 12 months, so there can't be much to misunderstand with this matchup.

 

[Shadetree]

Flesch +142 Kelly [Pinnacle]

These odds are too steep for an erratic player like Kelly. Flesch is no star, but is a reasonably consistent cut-maker. Kelly is much more an all-or-nothing proposition, capable of missing the cut any given week. On average, I would expect Kelly to win by 1 or 2 strokes over four rounds, with a very high variance, making the underdog a solid play.

Howell -145 Leonard [Pinnacle]

It is difficult to go against a player of Leonard's quality at these odds, but I like the situation for Howell. He has played extremely well in recent months and has historically scored almost a full stroke (per four rounds) better than normal when he has a week of rest (as he does this week). Leonard is a momentum player and has not looked his best in recent weeks. Both players are very likely to go four rounds, and I see Howell with a 5-6 stroke advantage this week.

 

[Theboundbook]

125/100 C Dimarco over F Funk

100/150 J Kelly over D Love III

120/100 C Dimarco over C Riley

110/100 J Rose over A Baddeley

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

a couple late additions
72 holes @ 365
C Campbell -110 vs Faxon
1st rd @ $plays
Funk -110 vs Faxon

Taking a dual swipe at Faxon who I think is over rated in this event solely on pre course form ie 2nd place finish last year and prior years. However we know this is entirely different setup rewarding accurracy and punishing errant shots. With that being said Faxon ranks almost dead last (174th) on tour in ball striking
(total driving and GIR) That "should" spell disaster.
In 1st rd going with Funk who is straight as an arrow and also has tee advantage (7:54 vs 12:15)
In 72 holes siding with Chad who is quite the opposite in ball striking ranking #2 on tour.Big edge in scoring ave also,
Chad 7th (68.87) Faxon 89th (70.71)

So have some decent stats and good lines going,we'll see what Murphy has in store.

 

[lostinamerica]

For capping purposes, this article seemed the most interesting of those I read this week. It's probably been widely read already.

http://www.gopbi.com/partners/pbpost/epaper/editions/wednesday/sports_e3e6dac630b931fb00b7.html

I think Justin Leonard has been driving the ball all over creation, and his game has not otherwise been sharp, but when I think of scoring with a wedge from the fairway, Justin comes immediately to mind. I believe Paul Azinger is also proficient in that regard and may be making birdies. Just a couple of thoughts.

MATCHUPS:

I'll wait a few hours before deciding on a couple of afternoon 3 Balls, but I am not feeling locked in on any of the matches in this event. I've only played one matchup for my full unit stakes.

Kendall(+105) over Pampling (Tournament) for 1* @ Olympic

ALSO:
Sluman(+400) over Riley/Scott/Maruyama/Calcavecchia (Tournament) for 1* @ Bet365
With outright plays on Calcavecchia and Scott, I like Sluman here as something akin to a hedge.

GL

 

[Ice Picks]

Honda picks and pans...

Honda picks and pans...

Some great info so far from the crew here...

From watching some Golf Channel, it appears that the concensus among the players and experts is that this course does not necessarily favor the long hitters, but rather someone who can play target golf - keep it in play off the tee and hit the greens in the right spot...

With that in mind, I see many cappers on Jeff Sluman and Justin Leonard...which I agree with. It is about time for Fred Funk to reappear on the scene - a player whi is always high in Fairways hit...

1. Calcavechia +130 over Herron - following LIA's lead in this pick...also like the odds

2. Scott +150 over Howell...I consider these two players about equal and I like this price...worth a shot...

3. Oberholser +110 over Petrovic - fairly good player who is gaining some notoriety...

4. Pampling -125 over Kendall

5. Sluman +120 over Perry

6. Funk +100 over DiMarco


Good luck....IP