Honda Classic

[Stanley]

From Tour Insider @ www.pgatour.com on Monday ...

"The Sunset Course is likely to succumb to players who have their A-games accuracy-wise. The 144 players face tight, undulating fairways, small greens and plenty of water and sand to capture errant shots."

What utter crap!

Davis Love got it right in his post-round interview when he said this was a member's course and not one for Tour pros. "It is very short and we're going to shoot the lights out on it."

Mickey-mouse, pitch-and-putt course. No wonder they're scrapping it after this year and just keeping the 18th hole in the "composite" course for next year :nooo:

 

[Stanley]

1st round update: 1-1-0; -0.12 units

Rose/Baddeley LOST by 4
Leonard/Parnevik WON by 5

2nd round play (2 units):

Davis Love to beat Justin Leonard -120 @ Sirbet

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st rd 1-0
Funk over Faxon win
Faxon is still on last hole but has tap in for par.He made run at end birding 3 out of last 5.

Have to agree Stan. Had I saw this layout 1st I sure would have made different choices including Leonard in outright who chances are remote in these shootout tracks.
I think several of us based this anti erratic drivers and they don'y use drivers but on about 4 holes.Most doglegs are short and they hit irons to keep from going thru fairway and rough is non existant. Classic example is Badds who hits all but one green in regulation.He's been hitting 2 iron and then wedge thru 8 on most par 4's which plays to his strength. Only angle that was correct is it does not favor length. With layups on doglegs it is putting short hitters playing 2nd shot from about same area as big boys---and greens are set at speed that they can take run at putts with no risk.
Off to see what's out there for today.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd rd Gonna take a stab at some putters vs non putters

Rose +102 vs Scott @ 5dimes
get am vs pm tees also

@WSEX all -.5 strokes

Estes -110 vs Allenby
Love +100 vs Howell
Huston +115 vs Kelly
Badds -105 vs Monty

With thses high #'s being shot am hoping it reduces .5 shot factor.

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 1-0-0; +2.00 units

Love/Leonard WON by 5

Mid-point update:

Calcavecchia/Baddeley All Square
Sluman/Baddeley LOST by 4
Rose/Baddeley All Square
Rose/Kresge WON by 4
Oberholser WON by 5
Perry/Gamez Trails by 4

Huston 6th
Allenby 65th
Estes 10th

Decent position in the outrights with two chances of a top-5 finish and if Baddeley can fold over the weekend, this could yet be a profitable event despite capping it as being played on a tight, demanding course.

 

[Stanley]

3rd round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Justin Rose to beat Aaron Baddeley -125 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Kenny Perry to beat Chad Campbell -117 @ Five Dimes
Tom Byrum to beat Notah Begay -115 @ Five Dimes

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

at the cut 72 0-2 3rd rd 3-2
Maru/Monty loss (another WD from Maru)
Prop
Badds miss cut loss
remaining 72 holes
Calc/Badds all square
Rose/Badds all square
Estes/Scott 5up
Campbell/Faxon 3up

2nd rd
Rose/Scott win
Estes/Allenby (tied) loss
Love/Howell win
Huston/Kelly loss
Badds/Monty win
Outrights Leonard 10th Campbell 21st
I like Campbells chances the best.

Finding some quite interesting ways to lose matches again this week.Of 3 recorded losses so far.

Go against Monty and he can't beat but 5 people in entire field of 142 and get dealt a loss via WD.
Play on Huston in 2nd rd and he only gets beat by 2 people in entire field but one is Kelly who shoots his career best PGA low rd.
Estes/Allenby Just your standard Allenby birdies last hole to tie Estes for loss.
---and just when i was getting over last weeks bullshit.
I'll have to say ole Murph does make it challenging.

 

[Stanley]

Wow! That really was tough with Maruyama again. Really thought you had the easiest winners of the week going against Monty :nooo:


Adding, 3rd round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Bob Estes to beat Notah Begay -125 @ Sirbet [3 units]
Fred Funk to beat Hal Sutton -115 @ Sirbet [2 units]
Davis Love to beat Tim Herron -135 @ Sirbet [2 units]
Davis Love to beat Justin Leonard -125 @ Sirbet

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Shew You got some Dandys there,Stan. Gonna have to add Sirbet to the harem this week!!!

No outrights to add at cut Considered Calc and with a top 5 opp might have went. Will try and climb on Badds again in 3rd rd play as ole faithful $plays has thrown up pretty decent #

3rd rd @ $plays
Rose +105 over Badds

 

[Stanley]

You might even win an account there this week

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I am notorious for last day collapses.Also it plays into one of my
premier superstitions. It is very bad karma to win account at book you are going to play at in future--but very good karma to transfer winnings to the person that donates valuable time to run contest---- and then open account there

 

[Stanley]

 

[Stanley]

3rd round update: 4-3-0; +0.83 units

Rose/Baddeley WON by 3
Perry/Campbell LOST by 2
Byrum/Begay WON by 1
Estes/Begay LOST by 1
Funk/Sutton WON by 3
Love/Herron WON by 5
Love/Leonard LOST by 1

4th round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Chris Riley to beat Notah Begay -115 @ Sirbet [3 units]
Jerry Kelly to beat Tom Byrum -125 @ Sirbet
Chris DiMarco to beat Chad Campbell -117 @ Five Dimes
Stewart Cink to beat Arron Oberholser -113 @ Five Dimes
Brad Faxon to beat Adam Scott -105 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Jim Furyk to beat Robert Gamez -135 @ Sirbet [3 units]

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

3rd rd 1-0
Rose/Badds win

4th rd
Faxon -125 over Scott @ 5dimes

 

[lostinamerica]

Four instructive things for this week's journal:

(A) My Masters card is filling up.
-1- Woods(+185) - Like usual, I buy insurance against it.
-2- Weir(66/1) - Check.
-3- Love(40/1) - Crushing and striping the ball and rolling the putts with the best of his career.
-4- Mickelson(18/1) - He would had to have earned his way off this list (his recent choice of putters was hopefully a "been there - done that" moment), and he's back to work on shortening his swing (like I thought he was figuring out right at the start of last season).

(B) Look at Leonard and Riley come back with authority. On my list for today is to start looking for at least one candidate to show form next week off a slow start or a lull and a few weeks off.

(C) On Tuesday night I said in my post, "I'm sure that in the next 24 hours I'll come across some nugget of fact or analysis (especially on the PGA Tour) that will have me convinced I should have waited until at least Wednesday night before making my final selections," and then the event of the week is in the Wednesday morning papers with widespread talk about the temporary venue being a member's course. That's a stumble, but then again, being totally non-committal is also not much of an option, even when the course is an almost totally unknown commodity. I know I would have taken Calcavecchia and Rose, regardless.

(D) Take a moment to thank Stanley for being the best - in every way, all day. Thank you, Stan. My passion for golf at the highest levels leaves me grinning when I think of your amazing credentials.
---------- ---------- ----------

SUNDAY

Love(-118) over Furyk for 1* @ 5dimes
Who is likely to show some strength, today?

Faxon(-125) over Scott for 1* @ 5dimes
Who is likely to season their game with some scrap, today?

Pettersson(-112) over Tanaka for 1* @ 5dimes
My take on Mr. Pettersson is that his potential is highest on courses featuring long irons and driving (Muirfield, Torrey Pines), and he can make the putts you are supposed to make, but his weakness is wild left. He goes well from strength to strength, until the prospect of winning intrudes.

GL

 

[sports student]

have a 4 game parlay going today that will pay about 18-1. One leg is home, Franco leads Herron by 3, Rose leads Badderley by 3 and Leonard leads Howell by 9. I was in the same position a few weeks ago and had it won until Howell choked the tourney away to Weir on the back nine and lost the playoff. There is nothing available that I can hedge. Just out of curiosity to the guys who have been betting golf for a long time and seen a lot of bad beats and good wins- what do you think my chances are of winning today? I know 3 strokes can go in a hurry. I figure I have about a 60% chance of at least winning a partial. By the way thanks guys for all your info in these threads.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

S.S Howell cost me in same tourney/same match that week.
Something about wild swings in last round and it always appears to be the worst.I can just envision Bads shooting rd similiar to 1st rd today.
Think I'm gonna take the collar on parlays this week.Maru killed my 5 dimes parley-Badds my Monty-Tyson-Badds miss cut parlay @ Wsex.-and my 365 parlay needs big move by Perry or big dump by Riley.


I will hedge a parlay if only one match is live but if 2 are alive regardless of lead of other match I usually won't.

 

[sports student]

DTB I see you have a little hope with Perry yet as he is making his move. Always fun for me to see what you guys are playing. I like you no cut parlay. What makes my parlay aggravating is for the last 3 weeks in a row I have missed a parlay by 1 loss each time. In my mind the 2nd best thing that could happen besides winning is losing them all . Generally in sports I do not parlay that much and really would like to play more matchups straight up but I do not have that much money to risk and would hate to lose a lot in golf which is my weakest sport. By the way right now Herron is 4 strokes up on Franco right now so I am behind. The most important matchup is Rose since that is my only straight up play. Good luck today.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Someone throw a whammy on Badds:nooo:

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Dogs:

Nice call on Campbell.