JOE GAVAZZI
CBKB
Memphis at Louisville (-9-) 7:00 ET ESPN
4* Louisville (-9-)
This the renewal of a once great conference rivalry now that each of these programs has realigned in the AAC. A quick look at our articles on statistical indicators at XXXXXXXXXXXXX (no links)will point out defending champion Louisville as a Fundamentalist and as a Defensive Dandy. In the only step up game on the road for Memphis, the Tigers lost 101-80 at Oklahoma St. and you can?t discount the Tigers recent game against a quality defensive team when they lost 69-53 at home, to rugged Cincinnati.
George Mason at VCU (-16) 7:00 ET CBSC TV
4* VCU (-16)
It was 2 ? years ago when I wrote that 3rd year George Mason HC Hewitt would be taking the Patriots down the tubes with his poor coaching. Now that much of the talent and well-coached players are gone from the Larranaga regime, my prediction is at last prophetic. The Patriots are 7-7 SU, 3-8 ATS and seem destined for a cellar dwelling finish in their new home in the A10. Recently, GM has gone 1-7 ATS. The only thing that prevents us from taking off the rubber band is Shaka Smart?s record of 7-17 ATS (2-3 ATS this year) as home favorite of 13 or more points. Note from our statistical indicator articles that GM is an Offensive Oaf, who is turning the ball over 15 times per game. That is surely grist for the mill that is VCU?s havoc defense.
Troy at Arkansas St. (-11-) 8:00 ET
4* Arkansas St. (-11-)
First year Troy HC Cunningham has yet to find the winning combination for a Trojan?s team that has authored just 30 wins in the previous 3 seasons. They are on pace, at 5-9 SU, for a 10 win season once again. A look at our statistical articles at XXXXXXXXXXX (no links) finds that Troy is both Clueless and an Offensive Oaf. This has translated into a 0-6 SU road record in which they have lost by 9 or more points in all 5 lined games, averaging just 58 PPG. Under 6th year HC Brady, we know that the Red Wolves have consistently been a momentum team. At 4-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, we gladly follow this momentum of a team who qualifies as a 230 Club Offense in what is Brady?s highest scoring team of his tenure.
Pepperdine at BYU (-15) 9:00 ET
4* BYU (-15)
This is the 2nd meet of the season between these WCC rivals. An improved Pepperdine team won the first matchup at Firestone (80-74) when they outshot the Cougars 13-1 from behind the arc. Chances are good those numbers come close to reversing themselves when the Beach Boys travel to the altitude of Provo where under 9th year HC Rose, the high-scoring Cougars, who qualify as a Fundamentalist in our group of statistical indicators, are 113-68 ATS as home chalk, including 3-0 ATS this season. Haws and Carlino reverse their shooting fortunes of their first meet in this 20+ point blasting.
Arizona (-1-) at UCLA 9:00 ET ESPN
4* Arizona (-1-)
Under the strong coaching of Sean Miller (Arizona) and Steve Alford (UCLA), each of these teams qualifies as a Fundamentalist. Arizona is a Defensive Dandy (they recently limited Washington St. to 25 points) while UCLA is a member of the 230 Club Offense (just dropped 107 on USC). Last season, with Howland at the helm of the Bruins, they knocked off Miller and the Wildcats three times. Plenty of motivation for the No.1 team with great defense and rebounding numbers. Must resist taking off the rubber band, however, recognizing that UCLA is 52-9 SU at Pauley (9-0 SU this year), while Miller is a head-scratching 6-25 ATS following a home conference win.
Marquette at Xavier (-5) 9:00 ET FS1
4* Xavier (-5)
Never easy to fade Marquette under HC Williams who has produced a trio of outstanding numbers. Under his guidance, the Eagles are 31-12 ATS in January, 33-17 ATS as dog, and 35-23 ATS away. But, Williams has still not found replacements for 3 high-scoring seniors from last year. The offense remains impotent making just 4.3 triples per game at 30%. Against Defensive Dandy Xavier, it is unlikely they get untracked at the Cintas Center where the Muskies stand 46-9 SU (including 10-0 SU this year) 3+Y. With PG Christon controlling the perimeter and Stainbrook dominating the paint, the Golden Eagles fail to soar again tonight.
Northwestern at Iowa (-17) 9:00 ET ESPNU
4* Iowa (-17)
This line has been impacted by the suspension of Iowa HC McCaffrey for his indiscretions at Wisconsin. Must also note that the Hawkeyes have this game sandwiched between that Wisconsin loss and a date this weekend vs. Ohio St. Loss of McCaffrey, however, may drive the focus even higher for this talented and deep Iowa team, who qualifies as Fundamentalist, Defensive Dandy, and 230 Club Offensive Member. Meanwhile, Northwestern has nary a clue under 1st year HC Collins who insists on trying to fit the square peg of his teams former Princeton offense into the round hole which represents the up-tempo Duke offense on which he was raised. First 2 Big 10 results have been a loss of 76-49 to Wisconsin and 74-51 to Michigan. More of the same tonight.
Michigan (-4) at Nebraska 9:00 ET ESPN2
4* Michigan (-4)
Well aware that Nebraska returns home after a 0-3 road trip in which they lost by double digits at Cincinnati, Iowa, and Ohio St. averaging just 56 PPG. An 8-3 ATS recent home dog record will serve them well as they look to avenge a 62-47 loss to the Wolves last year. But outstanding 7th year Michigan HC Belein has not only overcome the loss of last year?s guard tandem of Burke and Hardaway, but also the January 1st loss of interior force McGary. In opening the Big 10 season 2-0 SU ATS, the Wolves have allowed just 55.5 PPG. Note that Belein teams are 65-41 ATS when allowing 55 or less points in the previous game. Qualifying as both a Fundamentalist and a 230 Club Offensive Member, look for Michigan to survive another defensive struggle with their superior offense and better coaching.
