Matchup plays (1.5 units):
Retief Goosen to beat Charles Howell -150 @ Pinnacle
Avoiding Goosen for the outrights in his first attempt in this event, but he is still a far better player than either Howell or Campbell and has shown as such over the past two weeks. The South African leads Howell 7-3-1 h2h in PGA Tour events over the past twelve months, so there is some value in these odds.
(also available at Olympic, Sirbet, Five Dimes and Aces)
Retief Goosen to beat Chad Campbell -143 @ Five Dimes and NordicBet
It's been a very low-key start to the year for Campbell. He finished 15th of 30 in the Mercedes Championship and missed the cut in the Sony Open last week. In that form, he should not be able to compete with Goosen.
Harrison Frazar to beat David Peoples -145 @ WSEX
Surprised to see these two players in the same matchup. Frazar may suffer a little from his playoff loss, but he will be returning to an event in which he finished in the top-10 last year so he should be confident of competing well again this week. People missed the cut last week and his last top-10 in this event was back in 1992.
Fredrik Jacobson to beat Jesper Parnevik -125 @ NordicBet
Parnevik won this event in 2000, but on the two occasions that he has since played in this event he has missed the cut both times. Last week's 15th place finish was encouraging for a player who has lost his game over the past couple of years, but currently it is his opponent who is the #1 Swedish golfer and should remain so for quite some time.
Jerry Kelly to beat Chris Riley -130 @ Sirbet and Aces
Backing Kelly again in this event. He has dominated this matchup over the past year with a 11-5-0 h2h lead on the PGA Tour and this event is set up to favour him even more than usual. Can see Riley in the top-20 but no more.
(also available at Five Dimes, Pinnacle and Olympic)
Scott Verplank to beat Chris Riley -118 @ Expekt
Verplank has dominated his matches against Riley even more than Kelly over the past year: 11-3-0 h2h. This will be Verplank's first start of 2004, but having finished 4th and 12th in two of the last three years he should be confident of another good week in California.
(also available at Bet365)
Rocco Mediate to beat Tom Pernice -111 @ BetandWin
Siding with the much better player, or at least when healthy. Pernice missed the cut last week and it is difficult to see him finishing in the top-30.
