Round 4 plays (4pts):
D.A. Points to beat Nathan Green -150 @ William Hill [available generally]
Huge gulf between these two in terms of course form - Points has finished 3rd, 7th, 40th, 19th in the last four years - and in current form - Green has missed six of nine cuts this years, whereas Points won the Houston Open seven weeks ago.
Jason Day to beat Ryan Palmer -143 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James and Paddy Power]
With course finishes of 1st, 5th and 9th in the last three years, it should not be a surprise to see Day in the top-20 again. He has recovered well from an opening 72, whereas Palmer fell out of contention with his 72 yesterday.
Sang-Moon Bae to beat Tom Gillis -120 @ Paddy Power
The two players immediately behind Keegan Bradley on the leaderboard, but this is Gillis' first cut that he has made in six starts. Bae earned himsef a place in the playoff for the 2012 Transitions Championship when starting the final round in 3rd place; the last time Gillis was in this position (2012 Crowne Plaza Invitational) he shot 76 in the final round to drop from 3rd to 19th.
Keegan Bradley to beat Scott Piercy -113 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
Bradley's lead is down to just one shot after 54 holes, but he was denied only by a playoff in the previous occasion that he started the final round in the lead (2012 Northern Trust Open), Piercy had missed four of his last five cuts before this event (best-finish: 54th), so confidence should be rather fragile and I don't think Bradley will be put under too much pressure today from this chasing group.
Martin Flores to beat Steve Marino -165 @ 5Dimes
Opposing Marino who is on a Major Medical Extension after missing the second half of last season. He has achieved just one top-50 finish so far in nine events this year and is averaging 75.0 in the final round this year. Flores finished 10th the last time that he was in Texas and is currently ahead of Marino in 19th place. Playing under much less pressure than Marino, he should be able to win this matchup.