HP Classic of New Orleans

[Stanley]

Outright picks (1.5pts):

Scott Verplank to win 25/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Victor Chandler and BlueSq
Siding with Verplank again. You can only ask of your selections that they at least give themselves a chance - unless last week's - and Verplank does that. He may have thrown away last year's event when he had a two-shot lead with four to play, but with his very high ratio of top-10 finishes over the last six months he is showing that he is worthy of a place on the Ryder Cup team and there is more to him than the 'bottler' tag. He had a decent record here before last year's 3rd place finish and he should continue it this year.

Stuart Appleby to win 33/1 e.w. @ SIA
A price that is considerably out of line with elsewhere. Appleby is a better player than these odds and he has shwn that already this year, winning once and finishing in the top-3 on two further occasions. He shot a 3rd round 63 to get into contention last year, but it is always difficult to follow such a low round and he had to settle for another top-20 finish around this course. Rested after a solid Masters, he should be a strong contender this week.

Stephen Ames to win 40/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Rather like Verplank, Ames is easily dismissed for his last of wins on the PGA Tour. Whereas Verplank ha won four times, Ames' best finish is 2nd in the 2002 Players Championship. But also like Verplank, he tends to put himself into contention on a very regular basis when in form. In his last four events alone, he has finished 6th, 13th, 7th and 4th and on this course he has made every cut with two top-10 finishes in four starts. Probably not going to win, though much more likely than Christian Cevaer last week, but so long as he gives himself a chance of at least a top-5 finish then it will not be a wasted effort. Also like Choi (25/1) and Kelly (33/1), but will stick with these three.

 

[veride]

Outright (EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) :

Chris DiMarco --> 25/1 Paddy Power
Scott Verplank --> 25/1 Victor Chandler
Stephen Ames --> 33/1 Paddy Power
Patrick Sheehan --> 80/1 Victor Chandler

Place Only - 5 places :

Stuart Appleby --> 5/1 Sky Bet
Geoff Ogilvy --> 6/1 Sky Bet

To Finish in the Top 10 :

Woody Austin --> 9/1 Paddy Power
Mark Hensby --> 9/1 Poddy Power
Steve Striker --> 14/1 Paddy Power
Patrick Sheehan --> 16/1 Paddy Power

 

[veride]

forgotten... winner ?

forgotten... winner ?

Outright (EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) :

Kirk Triplett --> 40/1 Victor Chandler

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts):

Stephen Ames to beat Geoff Ogilvy -110 @ SkyBet
Backing the outright selections in the matchups. Ogilvy was 2nd here two years ago and has been in good form recently, but Ames still holds a 7-1-1 h2h lead over him in 2004 and that is enough to warrant a play.
(available widely)

Scott Verplank to beat Geoff Ogilvy -125 @ BlueSq
Verplank is not as dominant against Ogilvy this year, but he is simply in a different of player altogether. Very consistent and with a long history of success on this course.

Stuart Appleby to beat Scott Hoch -120 @William Hill
Hoch has shown some form in the last two weeks, but he is not consistent enough to be backed in matchups. Appleby leads him 11-2-0 h2h over the past year and deserves to be at much shorter odds in the outright market.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Toms to miss cut 3.3/1 @SIA
Verplank -111 over Toms @ Boyles
Dimarco -111 over Toms @ Cbet

Staying on the Toms miss cut train till it stops

Hate to bet on Dimarco after his half hearted effort on (2nd shot) out of bunker on final hole in the Masters to take double and drop him to 6th place finish but will give him a go regardless.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I've only jumped in with Appleby to start. Saw the 33 last night but decided to take the 28 with 5 places.

Appleby 28 1u ew (SportingBet)

 

[kjls04202]

Does anyone think that Coceres is a fair price at 125/1. The same price as last week after he played so well. Tempered by his inconsistency I just thought it a fair price.

 

[lal2000]

I think Coceres is a great value bet right now at Paddy Poiwer - still 125/1, while most of the rest have him at between 66/1 and 80/1, with a few at 100/1. I picked him up on Monday morning at 125/1 and will be posting him with my other bets later today. Over the past few months his form has improved quite significantly and I believe he has a real shot at this one.

LT

 

[kjls04202]

lal - I wholeheartedly agree. Just surprised that he gets no mention at all anywhere.

 

[gethman]

Not an event I can get excited about on the outrights front. In my opinion, there is a case for dismissing the chances of 70% of this field, which leaves the front runners in the market as obvious strong contenders.
However, given the poor quality of the field, I cannot refuse the 40/1 quote about Robert Allenby. Always chancing on wether he has a good putting week, but everything else in his game suggests he can go well, on a track where good iron play and length off the tee is a big advantage.
Siding with the likes of Bo Van Pelt, Joe Durant, and Carlos Franco who might not have a better chance to win a event, if the likes of Mickelson and Singh fail.
Cases for Ogilvy (33/1), Ames (40/1), but are passed over as representing little value.

Stephen Ames, 40/1, Coral, 1.5 Pts E/W

Carlos Franco, 88/1, Olympic, 0.75 Pt E/W

Bo Van Pelt, 100/1, SkyBet, 0.5 Pt E/W

Joe Durant, 150/1, Ladbrokes, 0.75 Pt E/W

Just learnt that Allenby is a non runner, so will replace Allenby with Stephen Ames as main selection.

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (? unit ew @ ? odds 1st 5 unless indicated))

J Coceres 125/1 @ Paddy Power
Carlos Franco 100/1 @ Blue Square
Kevin Na 100/1 @ Paddy Power
D Hart 100/1 @ Sporting Odds
H Frazer 80/1 @ Paddy Power
S Stricker 150/1 @ Paddy Power

J Rose 100/1 @ Ladbrokes (1.5 units ew - 1/5 odds 1st 5)

Also interested in Ames. Riley & Flesch.

Good Luck

 

[lal2000]

A wide assortment of doubles this week ? placed all over to get the best odds for each parlay ? largely at Victor Chandler, Sky and Paddy Power. Most are done at .25 units - a few higher.

Appleby/Howell
Mickelson/Colsaerts
Hart/Dredge
Franco/Poulter
Franco/Colsaerts
Hoch/Davis
Triplett/Cabrera
Frazer/Fraser
Di Marco/Canonica
Kelly/Gallacher
Verplank/Rashell
Ames/Oosthuizen
Frazer/Colsaerts
Hart/Canonica
DiMarco/Oosthuizen
Kelly/Dredge
Rose/Canonica
Rose/Colsaerts
Rose/Oosthuizen

Good Luck!

 

[gethman]

Stephen Ames to beat Charles Howell, 9/10, Ladbrokes, 2 Points

Been opposing Howell for the large part of the season. I wont ignore his talent, but for me he is one of the most overrated players on tour at present. He has superb course form, and is fancied by many to go well. However, Ames is bang in form, and is way ahead of Howell in the stats department. Howell will have to rely on his short game to compete here, and if that is not right, he will struggle to make the weekend.

Carlos Franco to beat John Rollins, 4/5, SportingBet, 1.5 Points

Looks too good to be true at first glance. However, Rollins has produced the goods in the past on the back of horrendous form, but this is too good to turn down. Franco has few problems in making cuts, which cannot be said of Rollins. Apart from the fact that Rollins can put the ball on the fairway, his iron and putting stats are very ugly, and even a drastic improvement may not be enough to contend with Franco.

Scott Hoch to beat Bob Estes, 10/11, SportingBet, 1 Point

Estes has probably been thrown in here on the back of his second place in this event last year. However, it was easy to see that he could go well last year, but this year his form is different all together. Scott Hoch has come into form at the right time, and should go close.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will go with a long one this week on basically a whim.
Lowery 15/1 top 5 @ 5 dimes.

Not much support for this choice. He is a player when hot that can shoot low with the best of them but been dogged with etrocious putting. Went to a new putter last week (two ball) and finished in top 25 in event in putting and 2nd in GIR's so just maybe it will carry over another week.

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1.5pts):

Stephen Ames to beat Scott Hoch -115 @ Five Dimes
Just think that the bad weather and late Monday finish will take more out of the older players like Hoch and Azinger than their younger, healthier counterparts. Hoch has put together two good finishes in the last two weeks, but he has still only finished ahead of Ames on one occasion this year.
(also available at BlueSq and Bet365)

Scott Verplank to beat Scott Hoch -130 @ Five Dimes
Verplank missed last week's rain-affect event and that should be of benefit. His form has dipped a little recently, but he is still a far better player than Hoch who is opposed strongly this week.

Jonathan Byrd to beat Paul Azinger -108 @ Five Dimes
Not a lot of weekend golf between these two players this season, but both had a good finish in their last event. For Byrd it was the Heritage Classic and not last week as was the case with Azinger, who was the only one interviewed who called for a 54-hole event and not a Monday finish. He did have a position to defend (so he can't have been too confident about this game), but it also showed that would suffer more than most from the extra day golf. So he is opposed this week.

Neal Lancaster to beat Blaine McCallister -130 @ Five Dimes
Given that Lancaster has a 6-1-0 h2h lead this season (42-12-1 since March 2000), I'll gladly take these odds as their course form is not that divergent.

 

[Another Steve]

Nor Leans Plays

Nor Leans Plays

Stephen Ames WINS HP NEW ORLEAN+33.00
Stephen Ames OV/Geoff Ogilvy-1? @-1.05
Stephen Ames OV/Kirk Triplett-1.30

Going with a Ames this week. Last week he had 5 bad holes. Going with the Hot hand and agree with Stanley's Post.

Finally won a Match at the cut, even though the cut took 3 days.

Good luck to all and thanks for Posting your Plays.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Stephen Ames(33/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Fits the horses for courses angle that seems to hold water well at this Nicklaus designed venue. Ames bounces into this week after closing with a rush last week, and he has demonstrated a strong resolve all season in his pursuit of that first title, but there's a real good likelihood I'm too late to join the current tea party.

Carlos Franco(80/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
http://translate.google.com/transla...omero&hl=en&lr=lang_en&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sa=G (I hope that is linked to the English translation, such as it is.)
IMO, another carrying multiple characteristics of a well-suited selection.

Paul Azinger(100/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
http://www.thegolfchannel.com/core.aspx?page=15100&dv=7752823&select=12730&select2=0
I was liking this play better before Stan's facts and analysis supporting his matchup selections. Beware the physically tired now seems like one of the slender threads this play is resting on . . . Anywho, Zinger's little run to start the season was a precursor at best. Now comes the first opportunity to see if there is any traction underneath his recent changes . . . There is at least one Nicklaus design that has suited his game . . . And as noted ad nauseum, their has been no discernible let up from the exceptional clip this year (against conventional wisdom) of players getting in the thick of contention rather than falling off immediately after a featured performance, and there are hints of that trend sprouting a first corollary that suggests climbing quickly aboard on the first evidence of discovered form, especially with campaigners (or winners) like Scott Hoch that have proven merit (and another postulate, from no less than the likes of Singh, and something approaching a litany of others, that suggests temporarily disembarking after the first confirmation that a heady run has run its course). Whatever.

Dudley Hart(90/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
This dudes personal profile won't let me "Just Say No" to one more along the same lines. Still chomping at the bit mode rather than congratulatory slapping himself on the back mode seems the right call here.

GL

 

[kjls04202]

LOSTINAMERICA wrote;

Zinger's little run to start the season was a precursor at best. Now comes the first opportunity to see if there is any traction underneath his recent changes . . . There is at least one Nicklaus design that has suited his game . . . And as noted ad nauseum, their has been no discernible let up from the exceptional clip this year (against conventional wisdom) of players getting in the thick of contention rather than falling off immediately after a featured performance, and there are hints of that trend sprouting a first corollary that suggests climbing quickly aboard on the first evidence of discovered form, especially with campaigners (or winners) like Scott Hoch that have proven merit (and another postulate, from no less than the likes of Singh, and something approaching a litany of others, that suggests temporarily disembarking after the first confirmation that a heady run has run its course). Whatever.

Thought that this was really well put and a very good point made.
I would have to say a lot of times the price after the good showing would preclude a bet but in the instances of say Zinger and perhaps Coceres and the like (Purdy probably another example this week), the edge is still there.

 

[lostinamerica]

kjl: Good follow up points about the price. Line value (to the extreme of buying points) is a crucial element in my football handicapping, and certainly has significant weight in my golf matchups. On the other hand, when looking for plays on golf outrights, when the price starts getting up in the range of about 33/1 or way better (including nice payoffs on Top 5 as well), I need plays with INFORMATION and ANGLES I can commit to, and then the disappointment comes when they just miss out, and not in regrets over pulling the trigger at 66/1 on Thursday morning when I could have had 90/1 on Monday (or the particular point you make about what to do when a good measure of "value" has been sucked out of a play with "almost tangible" appeal to me). But what I really like is having a juicy nugget in mind before the lines come out on Monday, and then being greeted with good news when the line is offered, and then gleaning info that further supports the play as the event draws near. This week, for an extreme example, I had my eye on Sandy Lyle, and would have put something on him at 150/1, but seeing 300/1 made the misadventure worthy of a legitimate stake and a posted play . . . Have a great week!


MATCHUPS:

Rose(+130) over Howell (Tournament) for 1* @ Infinity
- Passing on the Howell(-125) @ Bet365

GL

 

[the_allt]

Matchups - 1 unit each

Mickelson ov Singh +110
Rose ov Howell +110
Kelly ov Verplank +110