Humana Challenge

[lostinamerica]

In-running:

Cameron Tringale(150/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
- - I don't much expect him to win, but: (1) He was on my radar to start, and now I'm really liking his chances for moving smartly up the leaderboard; (2) I think the price offers fair value; and (3) He's prominent on my list of "players I want to be on when they win", and I'd be kicking myself if he got in the mix and I didn't make the play.

GL

 

[sharky17]

R2

HARMAN (-125) over HOFFMAN

 

[kickserv]

Round 3 Match-Ups

K. Stadler beat M. Jones -115

S. Levin beat R. Ishikawa -105

G. Woodland beat B. Horschel +115

H. English beat B. Haas +100

R. Goosen beat C. Howell III +150

C. Tringale beat K. Chappell +100

G. Chalmers beat J. Teater +110

P. Perez beat B. De Jonge +120

M. Wilson beat J. Leonard +115

R. Sabbatini beat F. Jacobson +100

 

[6 under]

Danny Lee -130 over Daly round 3, 2 units

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Charley Hoffman to beat Brian Harman +125 @ 5Dimes [VOID - didn't check they were playing different courses ]
5Dimes have this matchup rather than Morgan Hoffmann vs. Harman, so it looks a good opportunity to back a former winner of this event (2008) who has three top-10 finishes in this event. Harman has played well so far this week - 22nd at the mid-point - but Hoffman has finished ahead of him in 15 of their last 16 common events; he is already five shots ahead this week.

David Toms to beat Sang-Moon Bae +105 @ 5Dimes
Two players currently outside the cut line, but that is a rare occurence for Toms who has never missed a cut in this event. I'll back him to bounce back today; he has certainly been playing well enough to make the cut so far - he ranks 15th in greens in regulation.

Brendan Steele to beat Ben Crane +125 @ SkyBet and Ladbrokes [available generally]
Another player who has played better than his leaderboard position (91st) - he ranks 7th in dirving distance, 13th in driving accuracy and 24th in greens in regulation so far this week. That's good enough play to warrant backing him at these odds.

David Toms to beat Brian Gay +138 @ BetVictor [available generally]
Backing Toms again at large odds against Gay, who although being the defending champion, lies alongside Toms at 91st on the leaderboard. Ranking 144th in driving distance, 154th in driving accuracy and 128th in greens in regulation over the first two days, he is clearly struggling with his game and doesn't warrant such short odds against Toms.

Bill Haas to beat Keegan Bradley +100 @ Bet365
Backing Haas in this matchups again and at better odds than yesterday. Bradley now ranks 141st in greens in regulation this week, so is playing worse than 24 hours ago (Haas ranks 6th in this category), so there is certainly value in this matchup.

 

[sharky17]

ROUND 3

R. KNOX (-120) over C. WI

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Brendon De Jonge to beat Martin Laird -125 @ Stan James
Backing De Jonge to play well again today. He has the advantage of playing the same course for two days in a row - he shot 66 yesterday - has made the cut in all six attempts in this event and last week's 51st position was the first time in five events that he hadn't finished in the top-20. He beat Laird 11-4-3 h2h over the weekend rounds in 2013, so he is a justifiable favourite.

Brendon De Jonge to beat Kevin Chappell -125 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib]
Chappell also played PGA West (Palmer course) yesterday, but he shot the low round of the day (63) and so is a standard go-against in the following round.

Hudson Swafford to beat Brian Harman -120 @ 5Dimes
A basement battle, but backing the player in much better form - he finished in the top-10 last week - and has the stronger motivation to increase his current leaderboard position as a young Tour rookie.

J.J. Henry to beat Daniel Summerhays -120 @ 5Dimes
Backing Henry in this matchup. He led his opponent 9-4-0 h2h in the second half of 2013 and has been better tee-to-green than his opponent this week, ranking 36th in greens in regulation to Summerhays' 83rd.

 

[sharky17]

ROUND 4

W. MacKENZIE (+110) over J. LEONARD