I enjoy this Saturday card

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Jord20

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Studying up while grinding some Lehecka small... he blew that break point badly.

Damn Draper is so good. Too good for Jiri it appears. We will roll with Aussie in the tennis forum... going to be lots of sleepless nights these next 2 weeks FML
 

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Jord20

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Jiri!!!!!

Best I got was some +330... do like his chances in 3, given Draper's fit issues
 
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Osty for the homerun tennis night...

Ok, forget all this... let's get to some hoops... I may be cutting it close to game time as I stay up and cap and watch...

Catch you tomorrow
 
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Creighton -6.5 4x
Vandy +10.5 5x
Detroit +10.5 5x
Wake -6
TAM -3 7x
N Mex -3.5
Belmont +11.5 4x
Xavier +3.5 7x
Davidson +1.5
KU -7 4x
UNLV +2 6x
Clemson -9.5

Don’t forget Missouri
 
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Smitty

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Jord, I'd love to get your thoughts on this... obviously, I see what you're looking at in regards to Mizzou and A&M. On the surface, both lines look like they are begging for money on the dogs. Normally I'd use Sagarin's rating to get an idea of what the computers say the line should be. Unfortunately, it appears that he's not putting out ratings any more. So the ESPN computer is about all I got. Anyway, ESPN shows A&M with a 65% chance of winning and Mizzou with a 61.9% chance. So according to that... if anything, both lines are actually a little low. I also know that when it comes to College Basketball, the linesmakers aren't worried about "the general public." They only care about the big money. So those lines are going to be pretty much right in line with the computers. If anything, UK and (the other) USC are really the contrarian plays.

Maybe I'm missing something, and something else is driving your thoughts on these. But I'm just trying to pick your brain a little.

All that said, I still threw in a small ML parlay with Mizzou & TA&M. +175, what the hell?
 
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Jord20

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Smitty said:
Jord, I'd love to get your thoughts on this... obviously, I see what you're looking at in regards to Mizzou and A&M. On the surface, both lines look like they are begging for money on the dogs. Normally I'd use Sagarin's rating to get an idea of what the computers say the line should be. Unfortunately, it appears that he's not putting out ratings any more. So the ESPN computer is about all I got. Anyway, ESPN shows A&M with a 65% chance of winning and Mizzou with a 61.9% chance. So according to that... if anything, both lines are actually a little low. I also know that when it comes to College Basketball, the linesmakers aren't worried about "the general public." They only care about the big money. So those lines are going to be pretty much right in line with the computers. If anything, UK and (the other) USC are really the contrarian plays.

Maybe I'm missing something, and something else is driving your thoughts on these. But I'm just trying to pick your brain a little.

All that said, I still threw in a small ML parlay with Mizzou & TA&M. +175, what the hell?
Click to expand...

Yeah, hear you Smitty. The lines are made on numbers - then money drives it... I think the Missouri line was a tad light. I don't have SC rated very highly, despite their gaudy record... I thought this line should have been 4 - so, agreed that one was too low. I love Missou today... the better team at home and in a great situational spot

I thought TAM was more like a pick-em... so here, I do think you are paying up for the spot a bit - but, this is just a spot I love, so happy to give them the bucket.

The markets have gotten so much sharper than the old days of reverse line movement, public perception, etc... the books aren't worried about Billy Bob from Kentucky's $50 bet because he can't believe the #6 team is favored...
 
Smitty

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yeah, saw this a couple weeks ago, and it makes a hell of a lot of sense... the only sport where "the public" plays any role in the line... is the NFL. everything else is completely driven by the sharps/syndicates/etc.
 
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