I LOVE OVERS - EURO EDITION

[Crookity]

The Euros are coming up fast boys, this is going to be great. This is one of my all time favorite sporting events, I can vividly recall this tournament going back 25+ years. It should be fun, I am starting to keep an eye on the lines, and I am doing some research. I will start logging a few totals. I will probably tread pretty lightly for the first week or so, but I have a number of matchups that intrigue me.

BELGIUM/RUSSIA OVER 2 , 2 1/2 - 125

This is starting to move I will book it in now.

 

[Crookity]

Wow Italy just cooked Czech yesterday , dumped 4 goals on them. I must say the Azzuri look like good value to me. Critics pick on their defensive depth, but these guys haven't conceded a single goal in 8 games. I believe that runs the Italy unbeaten streak to 28 games they haven't dropped an International since 2018. The team has a favorable draw in an easier group. I like the value sitting at 10-1 they very well could get a nice path right to the Quarter Finals. There are several teams that are playing a significant amount of their group games at home, Italy being one of them. They will be playing in the comfortable confines of Rome. I would put up Italy midfield and attacking against anyone. Again, compared to some of the other teams odds I think there is nice value at 10-1.

I like Portugal team as well the odds came down on them to 8-1. The risk is they are in the Group of Death , no easy out of that group. Portugal is returning just about everyone from the Euro 2016 squad that raised the trophy. I like the Dutch team they have a favorable draw as well , and they sit at 12-1. I have to dig in more don't know if they have what it takes to go all the way, but I can see them catching lighting in a bottle and making a decent run.

Thoughts?

 

[BASON]

Hey Crook, love the enthusiasm. Euros is also one of my favorite events. Would love to be going this year and traveling to these great cities to see games, but not possible this go round.

We may not see a lot of overs in the first couple group games. The first rule of this tournament is do not lose the first game so you tend to see a lot of teams playing it close to the vest. This is further exacerbated by the number of 3rd place teams advancing so a win and a draw likely guarantees advancement. I think this will create a lot of lower scoring games between top clubs that are counting on beating the worst team in the group. It certainly makes for great games, but may not see tons of scoring until the 3rd game in the group and then going forward.

I am not much of a futures better, but I am liking Spain. If I play a future or two, I think I will have them in the semis which would could be over England. I fully expect England to choke once again. I like the Dutch team, but they can be unpredictable. I think Portugal is in for a fight. Not only did they get screwed with the draw, but they have to play in Germany and Hungary. This is a big advantage for Germany and Hungary is better than most think. They also have France last so they could be in a tough spot if they do not get a result in Munich. I will be on Belgium to win their group also. Denmark is getting too much credit.

Should have a new thread up soon and look forward to getting back into the swing with games everyday!!!

 

[Crookity]

Hey Crook, love the enthusiasm. Euros is also one of my favorite events. Would love to be going this year and traveling to these great cities to see games, but not possible this go round.

We may not see a lot of overs in the first couple group games. The first rule of this tournament is do not lose the first game so you tend to see a lot of teams playing it close to the vest. This is further exacerbated by the number of 3rd place teams advancing so a win and a draw likely guarantees advancement. I think this will create a lot of lower scoring games between top clubs that are counting on beating the worst team in the group. It certainly makes for great games, but may not see tons of scoring until the 3rd game in the group and then going forward.

I am not much of a futures better, but I am liking Spain. If I play a future or two, I think I will have them in the semis which would could be over England. I fully expect England to choke once again. I like the Dutch team, but they can be unpredictable. I think Portugal is in for a fight. Not only did they get screwed with the draw, but they have to play in Germany and Hungary. This is a big advantage for Germany and Hungary is better than most think. They also have France last so they could be in a tough spot if they do not get a result in Munich. I will be on Belgium to win their group also. Denmark is getting too much credit.

Should have a new thread up soon and look forward to getting back into the swing with games everyday!!!

I totally agree with you on the totals. I took a look back at 2016 as a refresher and there were plenty of games with 2 goals or less early. In fact there were only a tad over 2 goals a game scored for the entire tournament. This is why just about all the totals are shading towards the under, definitely have to pick the spots early.

I agree Portgual is in for a real fight , but their squad looks really strong. The more I read on the Dutch the more I doubt they can go all the way , missing Virgil as the anchor in the back is going to hurt them. I agree on Hungary they aren't a push over by any means. These guys are on a nice unbeaten streak, and they will feel good about themselves. I remember Hungary making a nice run last tournament. They gave Portgual all they could handle in a 3-3 tie. There is always a dark horse that pops up and goes DEEP. It happens every time and it's one of the factors that make the event so intriguing. Last tournament Wales went to the Semis , who is it gonna be this year, we shall see!

 

[Crookity]

The Azzuri down to 8-1 now opcorn2 , never in my entire life have I cheered for the Azzuri. In fact I live in a hugely populated Italian and Portugese community, I am going to have to hit some cafes in the next few weeks, and watch these games with some old Italian guys, sipping espressos.

OPENING MATCH
ITALY/TURKEY OVER 2 - 125


Italy has been pretty efficient defensively, they haven't let in many goals lately. Overall Italy has been looking really good. Offensively, they have netted 2 goals themselves in 8 matches in a row. They just put in 4 against the Czech a week ago. If you go back to 2019, Italy has scored at least 2 goals or more in nearly 80% of the games they have played. Simply put Italy has been playing some beautiful, free flowing, attacking football. I think Turkey can get one here as well. They have scored 2 goals or more in 8 of their last 10 International contests. There have been plenty of 3 goal games as well in that span against teams like Norway, Netherlands, Russia, Croatia. I think at worst I can get a push here, but looking for a score along the lines of 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 for the Azzuri.

 

[flapjack]

The Azzuri down to 8-1 now opcorn2 , never in my entire life have I cheered for the Azzuri. In fact I live in a hugely populated Italian and Portugese community, I am going to have to hit some cafes in the next few weeks, and watch these games with some old Italian guys, sipping espressos.

OPENING MATCH
ITALY/TURKEY OVER 2 - 125


Italy has been pretty efficient defensively, they haven't let in many goals lately. Overall Italy has been looking really good. Offensively, they have netted 2 goals themselves in 8 matches in a row. They just put in 4 against the Czech a week ago. If you go back to 2019, Italy has scored at least 2 goals or more in nearly 80% of the games they have played. Simply put Italy has been playing some beautiful, free flowing, attacking football. I think Turkey can get one here as well. They have scored 2 goals or more in 8 of their last 10 International contests. There have been plenty of 3 goal games as well in that span against teams like Norway, Netherlands, Russia, Croatia. I think at worst I can get a push here, but looking for a score along the lines of 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 for the Azzuri.

Hey Crookity - Great to see a lot of Euro talk on the forum. Maybe my favorite sporting event in the world. Was lucky enough to go when it was in Austria and again in France. Funny you mention this game because I?ve been digging into Turkey all day. I loved Italy and I took them at 10-1 a little while ago. They?re playing beautiful. But, you never know with them. Always capable of winning it all or crashing out in disaster. Beware of Turkey and the over. Yeah, is was back in 2019, but they were the stingiest defense in qualifying giving up 3 goals in 10 games. Including 1 goal in 2 games vs France. I think they could be a dark horse. If I could find a way to bet them to reach the semis at a high price I would. I like Ukraine too. But, back to the danger with the overs. Recently it looks like Turkey?s been experimenting with different formations and its produced a lot of goals for and against. Based on what they did to get here and playing in Rome vs Italy, gotta believe they are going to go back to their really defensive 4-1-4-1 defensive formation - they?ve got some great defensive talent, the team is peaking age-wise. They are going to fight hard for a draw. Plus Italy?s a young team and that could be a lot of pressure opening the tourney. They might just come out and roll Turkey, but if they get frustrated early, might be some pressure on them. Just my 2 cents. Good luck to you this tourney!

 

[Crookity]

Hey Crookity - Great to see a lot of Euro talk on the forum. Maybe my favorite sporting event in the world. Was lucky enough to go when it was in Austria and again in France. Funny you mention this game because I?ve been digging into Turkey all day. I loved Italy and I took them at 10-1 a little while ago. They?re playing beautiful. But, you never know with them. Always capable of winning it all or crashing out in disaster. Beware of Turkey and the over. Yeah, is was back in 2019, but they were the stingiest defense in qualifying giving up 3 goals in 10 games. Including 1 goal in 2 games vs France. I think they could be a dark horse. If I could find a way to bet them to reach the semis at a high price I would. I like Ukraine too. But, back to the danger with the overs. Recently it looks like Turkey?s been experimenting with different formations and its produced a lot of goals for and against. Based on what they did to get here and playing in Rome vs Italy, gotta believe they are going to go back to their really defensive 4-1-4-1 defensive formation - they?ve got some great defensive talent, the team is peaking age-wise. They are going to fight hard for a draw. Plus Italy?s a young team and that could be a lot of pressure opening the tourney. They might just come out and roll Turkey, but if they get frustrated early, might be some pressure on them. Just my 2 cents. Good luck to you this tourney!

Love the insight bro, we need more contributors. I don't have too many friends who follow the sport closely , so I come here to interact and talk footy. The madjacks forum is my only outlet when it comes to the sport. Trust me I know this play is very against the grain. The money has been coming in on the under steady for the past week. In fact pretty much every game shades to the under. It wouldn't surprise me for Turkey to get something out of this match. With that said I do hope for the Azzuri to control this with their midfield, and get me a few goals in front of the home crowd in Rome. You and Bason are bang on that it could be tough sledding on the Overs. I am definitely going to have to pick my spots. I have gotten away from sides in club action, but I will be playing them in this tournament. I look forward to more of your contributions this tournament.

 

[flapjack]

Love the insight bro, we need more contributors. I don't have too many friends who follow the sport closely , so I come here to interact and talk footy. The madjacks forum is my only outlet when it comes to the sport. Trust me I know this play is very against the grain. The money has been coming in on the under steady for the past week. In fact pretty much every game shades to the under. It wouldn't surprise me for Turkey to get something out of this match. With that said I do hope for the Azzuri to control this with their midfield, and get me a few goals in front of the home crowd in Rome. You and Bason are bang on that it could be tough sledding on the Overs. I am definitely going to have to pick my spots. I have gotten away from sides in club action, but I will be playing them in this tournament. I look forward to more of your contributions this tournament.

Well, since your focused on the overs, I?ve been trying to find value in top goal scorer and was looking for groups with leaky defenses and playing with numbers and doing some quick tally?s. So for what its worth, here?s the teams that conceded the a goal a game or more in qualification:
Group B Finland 1.0/game
Group C N Mac 1.6
Group D Czech 1.4
Group D Scotland 1.9 😳
Group E Slovakia 1.4
Sweden E (surprisingly) and Austria C .9
Didn?t give me any answers on dark horse top goal scorers but guessing these guys are gonna have to change things up or be prime targets for overs.

 

[Crookity]

Well, since your focused on the overs, I?ve been trying to find value in top goal scorer and was looking for groups with leaky defenses and playing with numbers and doing some quick tally?s. So for what its worth, here?s the teams that conceded the a goal a game or more in qualification:
Group B Finland 1.0/game
Group C N Mac 1.6
Group D Czech 1.4
Group D Scotland 1.9 😳
Group E Slovakia 1.4
Sweden E (surprisingly) and Austria C .9
Didn?t give me any answers on dark horse top goal scorers but guessing these guys are gonna have to change things up or be prime targets for overs.

Good stuff, I will definitely be looking for a few of these pigs to get slaughtered. It looks like a few of them are squaring off against each other as well. I will be referencing this list for sure, thanks.

 

[Crookity]

The Azzuri down to 8-1 now opcorn2 , never in my entire life have I cheered for the Azzuri. In fact I live in a hugely populated Italian and Portugese community, I am going to have to hit some cafes in the next few weeks, and watch these games with some old Italian guys, sipping espressos.

OPENING MATCH
ITALY/TURKEY OVER 2 - 125


Italy has been pretty efficient defensively, they haven't let in many goals lately. Overall Italy has been looking really good. Offensively, they have netted 2 goals themselves in 8 matches in a row. They just put in 4 against the Czech a week ago. If you go back to 2019, Italy has scored at least 2 goals or more in nearly 80% of the games they have played. Simply put Italy has been playing some beautiful, free flowing, attacking football. I think Turkey can get one here as well. They have scored 2 goals or more in 8 of their last 10 International contests. There have been plenty of 3 goal games as well in that span against teams like Norway, Netherlands, Russia, Croatia. I think at worst I can get a push here, but looking for a score along the lines of 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 for the Azzuri.

Looks like I'm all alone on the over here ar MJ, but that's ok . Those who follow know i dont base plays off line moves, and try not to read to much into it. With that said interestingly the over got slammed , the 2 line is at -175 now :0003 almost tourney time , good luck to all.

 

[Crookity]

Looks like I'm all alone on the over here ar MJ, but that's ok . Those who follow know i dont base plays off line moves, and try not to read to much into it. With that said interestingly the over got slammed , the 2 line is at -175 now :0003 almost tourney time , good luck to all.

FORZA AZZURI !!!!!!!! THEY LOOK GOOD AND TURKEY LOOKS LIKE DOG SHIT .

onto the next one...

 

[flapjack]

Looks like I'm all alone on the over here ar MJ, but that's ok . Those who follow know i dont base plays off line moves, and try not to read to much into it. With that said interestingly the over got slammed , the 2 line is at -175 now :0003 almost tourney time , good luck to all.

Congrats, you had the right side on the O/U. Turkey got crushed. Italy looks legit!

 

[johnnyb]

Nice call bud


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[Crookity]

Let's try another one this weekend

DUTCH /UKRAINE OVER 2, 2.5 -105

 

[BASON]

Nice work to start Crook!!

I like this Ukraine team, I think they could surprise a lot of people.

 

[Crookity]

The Euros are coming up fast boys, this is going to be great. This is one of my all time favorite sporting events, I can vividly recall this tournament going back 25+ years. It should be fun, I am starting to keep an eye on the lines, and I am doing some research. I will start logging a few totals. I will probably tread pretty lightly for the first week or so, but I have a number of matchups that intrigue me.

BELGIUM/RUSSIA OVER 2 , 2 1/2 - 125

This is starting to move I will book it in now.

This was a little closer than I wanted, but I am grateful for Lukaku smashing that 3rd goal at the end. So far so good over here , hopefully some scoring continues in the Netherlands/Ukraine game.

 

[tt boy]

nice start to the to tourney Crook x34:

 

[Crookity]

nice start to the to tourney Crook x34:

TT what's up buddy thanks ! I feel.good about the game today, the line really moved on that one , glad I played it ahead of time.

 

[Crookity]

Wow what a battle this game is , the flow is a thing of beauty just need some bounces.

 

[Crookity]

Wow what a battle this game is , the flow is a thing of beauty just need some bounces.

Wow great game another winner , couldn't ask for a better start to the tourny.