nothing backed yet, this is to save DTB going out hunting for rabbit...if you see one with three feet it is too late...
Invensys Classic
- Thread starter steved
- Start date
Outright plays (1 unit):
Jim Furyk to win 20/1 e.w. @ SkyBet or UKBetting
After two weeks of backing a player to achieve the three-peat, siding with a player to a title four times in eight years. He averages less than 68 per round in this event and no-one else is anywhere near that. Furyk is definitely the course specialist. While he did miss the cut last year, that was in the middle of three missed cuts in a row and there is no such worries about his form this year. In an open event, he has a better chance than most.
Chris DiMarco to win 33/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes or Tote
Not in the same form as Furyk, though he did beat him in Ireland, and not the same course form, but it is still impressive anyway. After missing the cut on his first four visits, DiMarco has finished 5th and 13th in the last two years, It was a similar story with the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic. DiMarco was woeful in that event until 2000 and then he returned this year to finish 6th. In the other pro-am on the circuit, the NCR Classic, the improvement came in 1999. He has obviously learned how to play in the pro-am format.
Scott Verplank to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Not generally regarded as a player who can shoot low scores - he is very straight off the tee - but he joins Chris DiMarco inside the top-20 in the 'Birdie Average' rankings this year and he has secured three top-15 finishes in this event in the last four years. In terms of the other pro-ams, which also require low-shooting, he finished 4th in the NCR Classic in 2000 and 4th in the Bob Hope last year. Coming a good Ryder Cup - two wins from three matches and 6-under-par when beating Lee Westwood - this represents a good opportunity for him to claim his Tour Championship spot.
Jim Furyk to win 20/1 e.w. @ SkyBet or UKBetting
After two weeks of backing a player to achieve the three-peat, siding with a player to a title four times in eight years. He averages less than 68 per round in this event and no-one else is anywhere near that. Furyk is definitely the course specialist. While he did miss the cut last year, that was in the middle of three missed cuts in a row and there is no such worries about his form this year. In an open event, he has a better chance than most.
Chris DiMarco to win 33/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes or Tote
Not in the same form as Furyk, though he did beat him in Ireland, and not the same course form, but it is still impressive anyway. After missing the cut on his first four visits, DiMarco has finished 5th and 13th in the last two years, It was a similar story with the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic. DiMarco was woeful in that event until 2000 and then he returned this year to finish 6th. In the other pro-am on the circuit, the NCR Classic, the improvement came in 1999. He has obviously learned how to play in the pro-am format.
Scott Verplank to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Not generally regarded as a player who can shoot low scores - he is very straight off the tee - but he joins Chris DiMarco inside the top-20 in the 'Birdie Average' rankings this year and he has secured three top-15 finishes in this event in the last four years. In terms of the other pro-ams, which also require low-shooting, he finished 4th in the NCR Classic in 2000 and 4th in the Bob Hope last year. Coming a good Ryder Cup - two wins from three matches and 6-under-par when beating Lee Westwood - this represents a good opportunity for him to claim his Tour Championship spot.
0.5 ew Couples 66/1 (Tote), played well last time out, has some good form here..although not sure whether he will rise to the challenge when it matters..looks like he is choosing his tournaments more carefully nowadays..
0.5 ew Tanaka 80/1 (BSquare), played well last week, although weekend was disappointing..no course form, but hits it a long way and cannot believe he does not know how to win...done it enough times in Japan!
0.5 ew Tanaka 80/1 (BSquare), played well last week, although weekend was disappointing..no course form, but hits it a long way and cannot believe he does not know how to win...done it enough times in Japan!
OK so we don't have many successful title defences but it is a funny event and Furyk did it 98/99....
I can't get away from Bob Estes 25/1 at betfair (22/1 SOdds).
In the last 8 years there has only been 4 scores by a winner greater than 69. Two of those were by Bill Glasson in the same year and he still won! With a total of 340 which is 8 worse than any of the other years. Shoot a 70+ and you're dead in the water (even in the desert!)
Estes has 13 x sub 70's in his last 14 rounds.
Most annoyingly I can't seem to beat 20 & 18 for my double with Lancome winner Scott. Oh well.... 398/1 will just have to do.
I can't get away from Bob Estes 25/1 at betfair (22/1 SOdds).
In the last 8 years there has only been 4 scores by a winner greater than 69. Two of those were by Bill Glasson in the same year and he still won! With a total of 340 which is 8 worse than any of the other years. Shoot a 70+ and you're dead in the water (even in the desert!)
Estes has 13 x sub 70's in his last 14 rounds.
Most annoyingly I can't seem to beat 20 & 18 for my double with Lancome winner Scott. Oh well.... 398/1 will just have to do.
I see Chris Di Marco as an excellent bet this week and I now have extra confidence now that Stan Tips him. He is very high in birdie average stats - only Leonard and Couples are ahead of him in this weeks field.
Calcaveccia also has a chance on a 'going week' as he also makes plenty of birdies.
This tournament is often a birdie fest.
Even John Daly might show up the board this week.
Calcaveccia also has a chance on a 'going week' as he also makes plenty of birdies.
This tournament is often a birdie fest.
Even John Daly might show up the board this week.
Thanks Steved
Waiting for Oly on outrights???????
Got a couple 90 holes I fancy they just dropped @ SIA (ties lose)
Dimarco -110 over Sluman
Verplank -110 over Huston (don't think this line will last)
Back in early a.m. with remainder
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Sutherland -110 over Leggett @ 5dimes
5 straight cuts here
Frazar -108 over Kutchar @ 5dimes
good form with 17th 9th and 10th last 4 played decent with 15th 3 back here. Could bust top 5 here @ good odds.
Appleby -115 over Beem @ 365
Would prefer others than Appleby but my only outs are he and Ames.Agree with Stan on Beems. Did well fading him in Tampa (3-0-1)
Waiting for Oly on outrights???????
Got a couple 90 holes I fancy they just dropped @ SIA (ties lose)
Dimarco -110 over Sluman
Verplank -110 over Huston (don't think this line will last)
Back in early a.m. with remainder
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sutherland -110 over Leggett @ 5dimes
5 straight cuts here
Frazar -108 over Kutchar @ 5dimes
good form with 17th 9th and 10th last 4 played decent with 15th 3 back here. Could bust top 5 here @ good odds.
Appleby -115 over Beem @ 365
Would prefer others than Appleby but my only outs are he and Ames.Agree with Stan on Beems. Did well fading him in Tampa (3-0-1)
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Matchup plays (1 unit):
Stuart Appleby to beat Rich Beem -115 @ Bet365
Opposing Beem again whose bubble has surely burst. He has missed the cut, finished 49th of 65 and then 67th in his three tournament since returning to action after his hot streak in August. His course form of two missed cuts and a 33rd place finish in 2000 is also supportive. Easy to side with Appleby who has put together some decent finishes in the last two months in high class events and has made the cut in two out of three starts in this event.
Charles Howell to beat Rich Beem -120 @ GameDay
Many parallels have been made with Duval's victory in the 1997 Michelob and while I don't expect Howell to similarly win his next two events as well, he should be able to repeat last year's top-20 finish. Has a good record in pro-ams and would have been considered this week had he not won on Sunday.
Jeff Sluman to beat Rich Beem -110 @ BetInternet
Slu has an erratic record in this event - two high finishes, two lowly finishes and two missed cuts in his last six visits - but he has rarely been in his current form. He has made the cut in his last nine events, won the Greater Milwaukee Open and finished in the top-10 four times in that spell. Would have found Beem a difficult opponent in August, but he was not the same player after taking a two-week break.
Mark Calcavecchia to beat John Daly -143 @ Gamebookers
Daly is another standard go-against. He walked off the course during his 2nd round in his last event, the Tampa Bay Classic, and it was reported that his mobile home was parked close to that green at the time! Apart from two top-10 finishes in Europe this summer, it has been a torrid year since he began so promisingly in January/February. Just can't see a repeat of last year's top-10 finish - he was in a golden run of form that included victory in the BMW International Open. Calc played some impressive golf at the Ryder Cup and had a run of finishing 3rd, 4th and 2nd from 1996 to 1998 in this event. Should only need to make the cut to win this match.
Scott Verplank to beat Chris Riley -125 @ Bet365
The last time Riley played in his home State, he won the Reno-Tahoe Open, but that was a week with a hot putter. He took just 97 all week to top the putts per round category for that event, while finishing outside the top-50 in driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation stats. It had been his strong greens in regulation stats that had been the hallmark of his high finishes in July/August and now that his stats show that he is struggling in this department, he has struggled to score since, finishing mid-table in the three events since that victory. Unless his putter get really hot again, he is not playing well enough to win this low-scoring event and so Verplank looks the better prospect this week.
Stuart Appleby to beat Rich Beem -115 @ Bet365
Opposing Beem again whose bubble has surely burst. He has missed the cut, finished 49th of 65 and then 67th in his three tournament since returning to action after his hot streak in August. His course form of two missed cuts and a 33rd place finish in 2000 is also supportive. Easy to side with Appleby who has put together some decent finishes in the last two months in high class events and has made the cut in two out of three starts in this event.
Charles Howell to beat Rich Beem -120 @ GameDay
Many parallels have been made with Duval's victory in the 1997 Michelob and while I don't expect Howell to similarly win his next two events as well, he should be able to repeat last year's top-20 finish. Has a good record in pro-ams and would have been considered this week had he not won on Sunday.
Jeff Sluman to beat Rich Beem -110 @ BetInternet
Slu has an erratic record in this event - two high finishes, two lowly finishes and two missed cuts in his last six visits - but he has rarely been in his current form. He has made the cut in his last nine events, won the Greater Milwaukee Open and finished in the top-10 four times in that spell. Would have found Beem a difficult opponent in August, but he was not the same player after taking a two-week break.
Mark Calcavecchia to beat John Daly -143 @ Gamebookers
Daly is another standard go-against. He walked off the course during his 2nd round in his last event, the Tampa Bay Classic, and it was reported that his mobile home was parked close to that green at the time! Apart from two top-10 finishes in Europe this summer, it has been a torrid year since he began so promisingly in January/February. Just can't see a repeat of last year's top-10 finish - he was in a golden run of form that included victory in the BMW International Open. Calc played some impressive golf at the Ryder Cup and had a run of finishing 3rd, 4th and 2nd from 1996 to 1998 in this event. Should only need to make the cut to win this match.
Scott Verplank to beat Chris Riley -125 @ Bet365
The last time Riley played in his home State, he won the Reno-Tahoe Open, but that was a week with a hot putter. He took just 97 all week to top the putts per round category for that event, while finishing outside the top-50 in driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation stats. It had been his strong greens in regulation stats that had been the hallmark of his high finishes in July/August and now that his stats show that he is struggling in this department, he has struggled to score since, finishing mid-table in the three events since that victory. Unless his putter get really hot again, he is not playing well enough to win this low-scoring event and so Verplank looks the better prospect this week.
Outrights Was looking for those that had ability to go low on these courses and set 72 score of 272 as standard. Surprising Estes lead pack and most of others have been wisely selected here also however odds are to short for place @ my outs on some of top ones,Estes-Furyk-Dimarco-Lowery and am hoping Oly will have in running place wagers this week and pick one up at 8/1 or better in running. Will go with a couple @ longer odds initially.
to place 1/2 unit
Mccarron 15/1 (top 4)@ Oly >9/1 at 5dimes hisssss
The Hope this year 13th,same format 68 65 68 67 67
Invensys last year 5th 67 66 66 66 70
I'll give him a look at most generous odds.
Pampling 16/1 (top 5) @ 5dimes
The Hope this year is his only experiece in this format and a 21st
66 72 67 66 66 was not too shabby considering his 3rd pga event but it was his buy.com scores that caught my eye however easy courses,with 6 touneys 272 or under including 266-267-267
I think this is player to be noted in the future and will try and make some hay while possible. Also owe him a little for 4th place win @ 14/1 at Tampa few weeks back.
to place 1/2 unit
Mccarron 15/1 (top 4)@ Oly >9/1 at 5dimes hisssss
The Hope this year 13th,same format 68 65 68 67 67
Invensys last year 5th 67 66 66 66 70
I'll give him a look at most generous odds.
Pampling 16/1 (top 5) @ 5dimes
The Hope this year is his only experiece in this format and a 21st
66 72 67 66 66 was not too shabby considering his 3rd pga event but it was his buy.com scores that caught my eye however easy courses,with 6 touneys 272 or under including 266-267-267
I think this is player to be noted in the future and will try and make some hay while possible. Also owe him a little for 4th place win @ 14/1 at Tampa few weeks back.
got in there first with Pampling DTB!
0.5 ew Pampling 100/1 (Ladbrokes) playing really well, played in pro-am on buy.com...now for a sterotype..he is an Aussie, so I am hoping/guessing he likes the wind, which he could well get here...drives it a long way, and is putting really well...
on McCarron, his wife's family live in Vegas I think...supposed to like it at this event...
and now for the serious stuff.
2 x 0.1 ew doubles
Immelman (33/1) with Pampling and Tanaka (both 80/1)
If you cannot pick one, might as well lose less trying to pick 2! Not the safest system there is, but hopefully interest will last beyond tomorrow morning!!
0.5 ew Pampling 100/1 (Ladbrokes) playing really well, played in pro-am on buy.com...now for a sterotype..he is an Aussie, so I am hoping/guessing he likes the wind, which he could well get here...drives it a long way, and is putting really well...
on McCarron, his wife's family live in Vegas I think...supposed to like it at this event...
and now for the serious stuff.
2 x 0.1 ew doubles
Immelman (33/1) with Pampling and Tanaka (both 80/1)
If you cannot pick one, might as well lose less trying to pick 2! Not the safest system there is, but hopefully interest will last beyond tomorrow morning!!
Good Luck to you Steved
adding a couple 90 hole additions in that thread
local link
http://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/lvi/
adding a couple 90 hole additions in that thread
local link
http://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/lvi/
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played these 3 matchups for the tournament. It is a combination of some of the picks you guys have and the fact that the lines all seemed to be pretty good value to me. These were all played at Bowmans.
DiMarco -110 over Appleby
Leonard -110 over Estes
Riley -135 over Beem
DiMarco -110 over Appleby
Leonard -110 over Estes
Riley -135 over Beem
All that spiel about Estes shooting lots of sub 70's.... he just had to shoot 70 in the first round
But at least there are 4 rounds to go.... it's nothing a 62 in one won't put right!!
But at least there are 4 rounds to go.... it's nothing a 62 in one won't put right!!
Was wondering if Nomad would have course differentials listed as drove into work. Not yet. Pgatour.com still has 1rd tees listed-cnn only has leader board and no stats and Las vegas review (local paper) won't load :shrug:
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no lines @ oly-sportingbet or wsex and wsex even has inters paused
Got 1 2nd rd that looks like mismatch
Sutherland -111 over Coceres @ 365 (Ties lose)
Went back 5 years on this tourney and 3 on Hope Classic and Sutherland has made every cut. Hope he don't throw in clinker today.
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no lines @ oly-sportingbet or wsex and wsex even has inters paused
Got 1 2nd rd that looks like mismatch
Sutherland -111 over Coceres @ 365 (Ties lose)
Went back 5 years on this tourney and 3 on Hope Classic and Sutherland has made every cut. Hope he don't throw in clinker today.
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Here's the course stats from Rd1 ....
Average score:
Summerlin - 68.21
Southern Hill - 68.83
The Canyons - 69.00
But it was noticeable that the 'name' players were at Summerlin & Southern Hills. Using the Sagarin Ratings per player to weight the above averages, I get the following:
Southern Hills played the hardest yesterday
The Canyons played 0.17 shots easier than Southern Hills
Summerlin played 0.67 shots easier than Southern Hills
Hope this helps
The scores:
Average score:
Summerlin - 68.21
Southern Hill - 68.83
The Canyons - 69.00
But it was noticeable that the 'name' players were at Summerlin & Southern Hills. Using the Sagarin Ratings per player to weight the above averages, I get the following:
Southern Hills played the hardest yesterday
The Canyons played 0.17 shots easier than Southern Hills
Summerlin played 0.67 shots easier than Southern Hills
Hope this helps
The scores:
Code:
Can 62 Steve Jones
Sum 63 Lee Janzen
SoH 64 Rich Beem
Sum 64 J.L. Lewis
Can 65 Notah Begay
SoH 65 Jonathan Byrd
SoH 65 Glen Day
SoH 65 Dan Forsman
Sum 65 Tim Herron
Sum 65 John Huston
Sum 65 Chris Riley
Sum 65 Paul Stankowski
Sum 65 Scott Verplank
Can 66 Stuart Appleby
Can 66 Bart Bryant
Can 66 Tom Byrum
Can 66 Michael Clark
Can 66 Tim Clark
Can 66 Russ Cochran
Can 66 Chris DiMarco
SoH 66 Jim Furyk
SoH 66 Billy Mayfair
SoH 66 Shaun Micheel
SoH 66 Gene Sauers
SoH 66 Jeff Sluman
Sum 66 Kevin Sutherland
Sum 66 Mike Weir
Sum 66 Jay Williamson
Can 67 Steve Allan
Can 67 Robert Allenby
Can 67 Billy Andrade
Can 67 Craig Barlow
SoH 67 Olin Browne
SoH 67 Brandel Chamblee
SoH 67 Ben Crane
SoH 67 Bubba Dickerson
SoH 67 Joe Durant
SoH 67 David Duval
Sum 67 Steve Flesch
Sum 67 Robert Gamez
Sum 67 Matt Gogel
Sum 67 J.P. Hayes
Sum 67 Charles Howell
Sum 67 Frank Lickliter
Sum 67 Steve Lowery
Sum 67 Blaine McCallister
Sum 67 Scott McCarron
Sum 67 David Morland
Sum 67 John Senden
Sum 67 Phil Tataurangi
Sum 67 Brett Wetterich
Can 68 Stephen Ames
Can 68 Jay Don Blake
Can 68 Jim Carter
Can 68 Greg Chalmers
Can 68 Fred Couples
Can 68 Carlos Franco
Can 68 Harrison Frazar
Can 68 Edward Fryatt
SoH 68 Jeff Gove
SoH 68 Dudley Hart
SoH 68 J.J. Henry
SoH 68 Miguel Angel Jimenez
SoH 68 Brandt Jobe
SoH 68 Andrew Magee
SoH 68 Tim Petrovic
SoH 68 John Rollins
SoH 68 Chris Smith
Sum 68 Kenneth Staton
Sum 68 Esteban Toledo
Sum 68 Kirk Triplett
Sum 68 Bob Tway
Can 69 Fulton Allem
Can 69 Pat Bates
Can 69 Jeff Brehaut
Can 69 Mark Brooks
Can 69 Bob Burns
Can 69 John Cook
Can 69 David Frost
Can 69 Jim Gallagher
Can 69 Brent Geiberger
Can 69 Peter Jacobsen
SoH 69 Kent Jones
SoH 69 Jonathan Kaye
SoH 69 Matt Kuchar
SoH 69 Jeff Maggert
Sum 69 Craig Parry
Sum 69 Dennis Paulson
Sum 69 David Peoples
Sum 69 Matt Peterson
Sum 69 Lee Porter
Sum 69 John Riegger
Sum 69 Rory Sabbatini
Sum 69 Tom Scherrer
Can 70 David Berganio
Can 70 Stewart Cink
Can 70 Brad Elder
Can 70 Bob Estes
Can 70 Brian Gay
Can 70 Per-Ulrik Johansson
Can 70 Greg Kraft
SoH 70 Franklin Langham
SoH 70 Justin Leonard
SoH 70 Bob May
SoH 70 Spike McRoy
SoH 70 Frank Nobilo
SoH 70 Jesper Parnevik
SoH 70 Pat Perez
SoH 70 Craig Perks
Sum 70 Brett Quigley
Sum 70 Mike Sposa
Sum 70 Hidemichi Tanaka
Sum 70 Kaname Yokoo
Can 71 Woody Austin
Can 71 Brian Bateman
Can 71 Mark Calcavecchia
SoH 71 Jess Daley
SoH 71 David Gossett
SoH 71 Billy Harvey
Sum 71 Skip Kendall
Sum 71 Joey Sindelar
Sum 71 Heath Slocum
Sum 71 Grant Waite
Can 72 Jeremy Anderson
Can 72 Paul Azinger
SoH 72 Cameron Beckman
SoH 72 Jose Coceres
SoH 72 Joel Edwards
SoH 72 Stephen Gangluff
SoH 72 Paul Gow
SoH 72 Geoff Ogilvy
Sum 72 Mark O'Meara
Sum 72 Rod Pampling
Sum 72 Deane Pappas
Sum 72 Craig Stadler
Can 73 Tommy Armour
SoH 73 Chad Campbell
SoH 73 Bill Glasson
Can 74 Bryce Molder
SoH 74 Bo Van Pelt
Can 75 John Daly
Can 75 Jerry Smith
Can 77 Ian Leggatt
Sum 77 Tom PerniceThanks Stan
Wish I knew if Estes would mount comeback. $2 a share at interactives(now active). Would not take much of a charge to double price since he is returning champ--but returning champs have spit the bit past 2 weeks
Wish I knew if Estes would mount comeback. $2 a share at interactives(now active). Would not take much of a charge to double price since he is returning champ--but returning champs have spit the bit past 2 weeks
He will have to shoot really low today if he's going to win. Despite the availability of low scores, I think is not a good event to catch up with the leaders because everyone should be shooting very low.
In the past six years, the eventual winner has been in the following positions after the 2nd round:
2001 - 6th
2000 - 6th
1999 - 13th
1998 - 9th
1997 - 1st
1996 - 11th [Love, who lost in the playoff, was also 11th after 2 rounds]
They're very high leaderboard positions with a full 54 holes to go.
In the past six years, the eventual winner has been in the following positions after the 2nd round:
2001 - 6th
2000 - 6th
1999 - 13th
1998 - 9th
1997 - 1st
1996 - 11th [Love, who lost in the playoff, was also 11th after 2 rounds]
They're very high leaderboard positions with a full 54 holes to go.
I agree,Don't like his chances of winning at all but lots of times the folks betting inters really jump on past winners when they are any where near contention and was just thinking itdoes not take a lot to move shares to $4.
That head to head addition under odds sure is a gem.I had 3 matches I had eyeballed in the beards only to find all 3 had been in arrears head to head on opponent.No wonder I been getting trounced that division all year.
Nice capping tool. Thank You:thumb:
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Leggett gone
-110 Daly doesn't start rd 3
-210 he doesn't start rd 4
good call Stan I'd a thought he might hang around in this easy setup?
That head to head addition under odds sure is a gem.I had 3 matches I had eyeballed in the beards only to find all 3 had been in arrears head to head on opponent.No wonder I been getting trounced that division all year.
Nice capping tool. Thank You:thumb:
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Leggett gone
-110 Daly doesn't start rd 3
-210 he doesn't start rd 4
good call Stan I'd a thought he might hang around in this easy setup?
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Wow Stan You have done a load of great work there. I tried until the PGA Tour scoring page went down late last night. Take my hat off to you
