Is too much public/sentimental/square $$$ on NYG Sept 5th?

[acehistr8]

The more I read Nolan's article the more I think about this.

Everything I read in the NY papers right now talks about how much Sept. 11th is going to affect this game. How fired up NY will be about it. There is no doubt emotion will play a part in this game. But lets get right down to the nuts and bolts of each team. Personally, I dont see this game being close, I see a double digit SF win.

When I think about the typical NYer on the street talking football, I imagine them saying HEY getting 2.5 points at home? I'll take some of that action, where do I sign up? As such, I think the play is on SF here. I took the 49ers two weeks ago at -2.5. I am thinking of taking more even at -3.

What do people think about my argument, that misplaced 9/11 sentiment for the Giants is causing this line to be artifically low?

 

[hellah10]

naa I think SF is the right pick here. They return 10 starters on defense...10 starters on offense and both kickers. The Giants lost alot of people and they are injuried due to teh pre-season....Tiki - Dayne - Collins - Shockey all banged up. Cant see how it can be a trap when SF is CLEARLY the better team. What do the Giants have that the Niners dont!?!? Hell the Niners even have better team chemistry. All fingers point to Niners....my finger points to the niners...my wallet points to the niners.....weeeeeee

good luck

 

[acehistr8]

I like SF a lot in this spot. They are so far above the NYG team in my opinion I find a hard time figuring out where only a 3 pt line comes from. My initial capping of this game is 27 - 7

 

[Heyward]

I have been staring at this line for a while now and I'm glad to see that others are confused by it as well. I've got some $ on SF already, but I am still trying to figure this one out. I don't know if it's 9/11, home field advantage, homer New York bettors, or what, but SF is clearly the better team . . . right?

 

[Felonious Monk]

ace,

you've got mail.

 

[Z-MAN]

I'm with you guys as well..........

HOWEVER, I will not place a wager until all the pre-season games are done. Wouldn't it suck if Owens or Garcia get hurt in a freak play?

 

[DIMEDADDY]

WOW, THIS NY/SF GAME HAS GOT EVERYBODY WONDERING AND GUESSING AND LET ME SAY I'VE BEEN SCRATCHING MY HEAD TOO. AS FAR AS THAT 9/11 THOERY I JUST DON'T SEE IT. THE GIANTS WENT IN THE TANK LAST YEAR AFTER 9/11 AND I DON'T SEE IT AS SOME BIG SENTIMENTAL GAME FOR THEM. BOTTOM LINE IS NINERS ARE A FAR SUPERIOR TEAM AND SHOULD WIN BY A TOUCHDOWN. AGAIN THIS IS JUST MY OPINION. I SEE THE LINE GOING UP UNTIL KICKOFF.

GL TO ALL

DIME:kiss:

 

[acehistr8]

Excellent point about injuries. I am keeping my bet where its at until preseason is over. Otherwise, I will be adding more to SF.

 

[acehistr8]

Monk, youve got mail.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Two things I think when looking at this one:

1) The line will rise because it looks "too low".

2) Squares will be all over the Niners. That is not to necessarily say that they are a good play or not, but people are really down on the Giants this season. I have yet to see a respected publication put them in contention for their division or even a playoff birth.

One thing I have learned about the NFL, at least for my plays, is that it is always better to handicap before looking at the lines. Let's say you looked at this game before seeing the line, figured on seeing a line of SF -6 and still thought the Niners were the play. Then I would say play the Niners. If you looked at this game before seeing the line, figured on seeing a line of SF -6 and thought you would pass, then I would recommend passing at SF -3 as well. I know it sounds dumb but it is just what has worked for me in the past.

 

[acehistr8]

Nick, you are totally right and thats what I do. I have a program I put together that I run the lines through before looking at the spreads. The print out gives me each team on one side of sheet of paper. When I saw a 20 pt differential and a 3 point spread, that to me is a great overlay.

Though I agree that this line will get pushed higher.

 

[mush]

Being from NY, I havent heard too much of Sept 11 being used as a motivator for this game. Im a die hard Giant fan and I have no Idea how they will be this year. But theres a good chance that the wideouts on the 49ers will run all over the gint secondary. For me its a no play until I see how Allen and Peterson fare against owens stokes etc. I also think the Square money will all be against the Giants!

 

[4bubba]

Aug 28

I will try to take the other side as we all should in every game (I have already got the 49ers @-2.5)

There will be an incredible amount of emotion in NY that whole week. The team that handles that distraction and can prepare for the game best will win.

The last emotional game the 49ers played in was against the Packers in Green Bay (a playoff game) with a truely hostile crowd, and they did poorly. The 49ers lost 15 - 25 and felt the season was thrown away, even tho they had a great record. I am not sure they can bounce back from that. If the Gia pass rush can cause problems early, they could be thinking about the Packer's game.
And that is a possibility. The Giants return intact the defensive line which will be a strength of the defense.
The 49ers offensive line has had some injury problems lately and may not be 100%
IF the Giants can control the 49ers offense early (and cause turnovers) they could win outright.

I feel the Giants need to steamroll the 49ers offense early and knock them off their game.

 

[WHY ASK WHY?]

I bet th yankees in game 7 last year using that line of thinking...

I think I must have been wearing polyester?....

Damfino: lol

WHY?

 

[cooz3]

i suspect you will see the public on san fran in this one...which i think we can all agree on...and the temptation to play against the public will be evident...but take a look at the players at the key positions on these teams and tell me why you would play the giants ...this niner defense is going to turn some heads this year...they are young and hungry (the right recipe in the NFL these days) and will be motivated to show that last years turn around was no fluke...ofcourse home field will be a factor and the atmposphere should be a big boost for NY...but after a few 3 and outs and some niners points that factor is gone..i am a NINER fan so take what i say with a grain of salt if you want...but i wouldnt hesitate for a second to bet against them if i thought that was a good play....assuming they get out of tonights game healthy...i think they eat this team up...talk about injuries on the offensive line of sanfran...the giants o line is pathetic...with Kerry Collins at the helm...coming at him will be YOUNG/STUBBIE/CARTER/FLANAGAN....

who is going to cover these wideouts????
NIners have a nice rotation coming out of the backfield as well...HEARST and BARLOW...with two good tightends...this team will score there share of points...but i think its thier defense this year which puts them among the "elite"...if there is such a thing these days...

NINERS minus 3...is a great play in my humble opinion...cooz