Jones vs. Calzaghe

[Zerwas]

I'm not sure if we had a thread on this fight before, but I cant find it and I think this fight deserves some attention.

There really seem to be a lot of different opinions on this fight...I usually like to go with the underdog, but Jones hasnt shown me much in the last couple of years that makes me think he can win on saturday...

Jones prime certainly came to an end in 2003 at the latest and he hasnt looked world class ever since, Calzaghe beat Lacy in 2006, Kessler in 2007 and Hopkins this year...he didnt look overly impressive against Hopkins but given Hopkins dominatnt win against pavlik this victory looks very good right now...so Calzaghe is coming off one of his most impressive victories and he's still in his prime...

I just dont see how Jones can deal with Calzaghes workrate, I think Calzaghe would have given a prime roy real fits...jones won against Tito, but he didnt impress me in this fight, the knockdowns basically sealed the deal for him, but I dont see him knocking down calzahge...

Joe has made it clear that this will be his last fight and he has been longing for a fight against jones for quite some time, so I thinke he is very motivated...

My guess is Calzaghe wins by decision (maybe a late stoppage).

The odds are not too good, but since this is an HBO fight, there might be some interesting props...

 

[crow]

It seems the only way to make some dough it's to play him by decision, as i agree he won't ko Calzaghe.

One point to consider is Jones's the underdog , something he practically NEVER encountered, except for the Tarver finale.

Maybe he will be super motivated and pull out a Hopkins.

I need to watch Jone's last bouts before making a decision.

 

[Romi]

I'm on Zags. I think Hop is a different animal all together. As somebody pointed out the other day, Hop was never layed out on the canvas for 10 minutes. I don't think Roy ever recovered. He was stopped twice badly and nearly stopped again against Trver in the 3rd go. Tito didn't win a single rd against Winky yet he comes back a few yrs later and gave RJ all he could handle for several rds. Wins over marginal opposition doesn't put RJ up there with Zags at this point in his career. RJ at his best was possibly THE best fighter p4p these eyes have seen but those days are 5 yrs gone. All the hard intense training in the world can't fix a broken chin and RJs is certainly broken. I like Zags by wide dec or late stoppage.

 

[crow]

Calzaghe dy dec or late stoppage is THE PLAY, of course.

Jones though managed to comfortably touch Hopkins clearly on many occasions ,thanks to his hand speed, something Calzaghe practically never did.

Will Calzone's hands hold up the abuse one more time ? In his three rounds stoppage win over Manfredo they did not.

The whole ball game now is to predict which Jones will show up. Can he mustard one last time his greatness or is he coming for the money.

Shot or not, gentlemen ?

 

[frank s.]

As zerwas noted, as this is an HBO affair, we should have the usual Ledeman round props at our disposal. This is a good place to look for value. Why bet into a line you have any doubt about or is too expensive? It would not surprise me if Jones won 2 of the first 3 rounds. At least one. So you play the +1.5 after 3 on Jones if the price isn't too high. I think Joe will come out sharp, but I see Jones countering and scoring something! The over 9.5-320 @5Dimes is steep but seems probable. Sportsbetting has it over 11.5-260/under+200. It is concievable to play both and catch it middling(under 11.5+200/over 9.5-320).

 

[gardenweasel]

I'm on Zags. I think Hop is a different animal all together. As somebody pointed out the other day, Hop was never layed out on the canvas for 10 minutes. I don't think Roy ever recovered. He was stopped twice badly and nearly stopped again against Trver in the 3rd go. Tito didn't win a single rd against Winky yet he comes back a few yrs later and gave RJ all he could handle for several rds. Wins over marginal opposition doesn't put RJ up there with Zags at this point in his career. RJ at his best was possibly THE best fighter p4p these eyes have seen but those days are 5 yrs gone. All the hard intense training in the world can't fix a broken chin and RJs is certainly broken. I like Zags by wide dec or late stoppage.

:thumb: 2 parlays with joe...

 

[weepaul]

Once again, I am going completely against the grain :scared

Calz has never faced someone with Jones handspeed. He might no longer be Superman fast but he is still Batman fast and I think Calz is going to have trouble dealing with this.

Jones won't try to box in this fight. He will stay in the pocket and try to catch Calz with quick, stinging counters. Hopkins stung Joe and I think Roy is still faster than Hopkins.

I have a feeling Roy will be whacking Calz to the body and might slow him down.

A lot of people are saying he should be sparring with better guys BLAH BLAH BLAH.
I am just really happy reading his training diary and seeing that his training is almost all geared towards conditioning for this fight.

IF he has his Pre-Heavyweight stamina, then I think he has a great chance in this fight.


Do I think Roy is shot? Mostly but I think he is an all time great who has one big fight left in him.

Good luck all.

 

[gardenweasel]

one thing that i considered strongly,other than the fact that,imo,roy`s through,is the fact that he`s the only thing standing between joe and that 0.....

joe said this is it....and he wants to go out undefeated...so expect him to give a primo effort here...he`s trying to make history..

i don`t consider tarver or glen johnson(lol)to be on calzaghe`s level....and i don`t think roy can hang for 12 at the pace that calzaghe set against bhop...bhop sure couldn`t,and imo,he`s got more left than jones..

but,at decent odds,i see why you guys are tempted..

we`ll see...nice to see some honest diversity of opinion from solid cappers...

:thumb:

 

[Zerwas]

I am just really happy reading his training diary and seeing that his training is almost all geared towards conditioning for this fight.

Where did you find his training diarry!?

Thanks!

 

[nj]

I wrote a lengthy piece about Jones' change in mindset and his increasingly strategic approach in the other thread, no sense in rehashing everything.

Weepaul and I are on the same page, the only question is his stamina, and from the brief footage of seen, it's looking good. Can you please post the links to his training diaries?

Joe's biggest asset here is his volume, Roy is the more accurate and timely puncher. If Roy can condition himself to match Calzaghe for volume, it's his fight.


edit - Great point Weepaul about fighting in the pocket. Roy's footwork and footspeed has eroded much moreso than his hands, if he has to move with Joe and stay at arm's distance, it's trouble. If he can keep it a close affair and nullify Joe's volume, he should get the better of the in-fighting, where counters and timing are more important than volume.

 

[weepaul]

Where did you find his training diarry!?

Thanks!

http://www.boxingscene.com/?m=show&id=16753

Took me a while to find this again. :toast:

 

[Zerwas]

heyy, thank you weepaul!!!

Jones fighting in the pocket, yep, that could work for him, I think he can be moderately competetive...but then again I dont see how Jones can deal with Calzaghes 100 punches per round....but there might be a some controversy on how to score those rounds...

@frank
regarding the lederman props, Jones has been on HBO for so long as a fighter and as a commentator, I think Lederman might feel inclined to give some rounds to roy...maybe thats worth a look...


BTW, what do you think about the fightcard in china.

Ray Austin weighed in at 228 lbs...

 

[Ghost Kid]

Ray Austin weighed 228?!?!

What kind of diet did he go on? Wonder he if can take the foul poul....hmmmm

:00x32

 

[frank s.]

As far as heavyweights go, they don't exist for me. They have been a horror to watch and I think that division is the most demented in all of boxing.

 

[Ghost Kid]

indeed Frank

look at this crap card in China

Mollo....McCline....Austin....Golota....

I'd be better off betting my money on women's horseback riding than any of these 4 stiffs....

ughgggh....if McCline and Golota both win, they should just fight each a few hours later in an eliminator....loser leaves town for good....

 

[weepaul]

Wager Type: Parlay (5 team)
Wager Status: Pending
Risk / To Win Amount: 203.00 / 6,630.20 (USD) Accepted 9/17/2008 0:26 AM - EST


Item #1
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: Boxing Fighting / Game
Line:
Juan Carlos Gomez 9/27/2008 4:00:01 PM - (EST)
-175
Opponent: Vladimir Virchis

Item #2
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: Boxing Fighting / Game
Line:
Chad Dawson 10/11/2008 9:00:01 PM - (EST)
-265
Opponent: Antonio Tarver

Item #3
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Pending
Sport / Period: Boxing Fighting / Game
Line:
Roy Jones Jr 11/8/2008 10:00:01 PM - (EST)
+260
Opponent: Joe Calzaghe

Item #4
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: WEC Fighting / Game
Line:
Donald Cerrone 11/5/2008 9:00:01 PM - (EST)
-125
Opponent: Rob McCullough

Item #5
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: WEC Fighting / Game
Line:
Leonard Garcia 11/5/2008 9:00:01 PM - (EST)
+140
Opponent: Jens Pulver


I am now sitting back and waiting. If Jones wins, I win a small fortune.
If Calz wins, I still win some money :00hour :mj06:

 

[frank s.]

SWEET! Nice work Paulie. I don't know how much you hedged with Joe, but you are looking at dimes either way. Me so jealous!

 

[crow]

5 dimes offered Calzone by split decision at +900, and i gave it a huge digg.
With the crazy scorecards of late and the fact he's the foreigner, that's a bargain.

 

[nj]

I just watched the weigh-in, nothing to report. Jones abandon the tough-guy nonsense, he seems genuinely happy to be there, and in high spirits.

Both made weight fine.

Zab 144.5, other guy 144. No look of intimidation or anything that would affect wagering.



I've found open workout vids on the fighthype youtube channel, will watch and report anything interesting

 

[Zerwas]

5 dimes offered Calzone by split decision at +900, and i gave it a huge digg.
With the crazy scorecards of late and the fact he's the foreigner, that's a bargain.

I played Calzone via MD @ +1800.

I also have some real lottery tickets this week, Calzone 12 round ko @+6500 and the Draw for the haskins fight at up to +9500, those guys at betfair must be crazy...

Hope one hits... :toast: