Kemper Insurance Open

[Stanley]

Course: TPC at Avenel, Potomac, Maryland
Yardage: 7005
Par: 71 (three par-fives)
USGA Rating: 74.0
Greens: Poa Annua - 6,912 sq.ft (Tour average: 6,000 sq.ft)

GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Past Winners:
2001 - Frank Lickliter
2000 - Tom Scherrer
1999 - Rich Beem
1998 - Stuart Appleby
1997 - Justin Leonard
1996 - Steve Stricker
1995 - Lee Janzen
1994 - Mark Brooks
1993 - Grant Waite
1992 - Bill Glasson

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Justin Leonard to win 12/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Nothing particularly inspired this week. Just obvious form players with good course form. Leonard disappointed last week when in a very good position to win the Memorial, but his underlying form remains very impressive. His run of top-20 finishes has now been extended to six and against this weak field, it should be seven. A winner in 1997, he was 2nd to Scherrer two years ago.

Chris DiMarco to win 16/1 e.w. @ UKBetting
Slowly recovering the form of January/February, DiMarco has only shot one round over par in his last sixteen and that was in the final round of the Masters. Has a great record on this course - albeit primarily before the weekend. In 1998 and 2000, he was 2nd after 36 holes and last year he was 4th at the same stage having been one of the first-round leaders. Now a much more consistent player with two wins at the end of last year/start of this year, he should be able to remain in contention a little longer.

Stuart Appleby to win 25/1 e.w. @ Blue Square or Heathorns
Another former winner, Appleby won this title in 1998. In six previous visits, he has finished outside the top-20 just once and that was last year. He had approached the event in poor form, but it still didn't stop him being one of the 1st round leaders. In much better form at the moment, having finished 14th in the Greater Greensboro Classic and 8th in MasterCard Colonial and was 3rd after the 1st round last week only to slip back.

 

[milpalm]

Going for a couple of players seeking their first win on the PGA tour. This event usually produces first-time winners. Tim Clark i splaying well and has won an event in South Africa this year. He was 16th last week and 9th in the Compaq Classic. 100/1 at Ladbrokes.

Peter Lonard has made the cut in every event this year but has only one top 10. In a weak field he should go well. 66/1 at Willhill.

Stuart Appleby is my choice of the favourites. His course record is excellent and he's in fine form. 25/1 at Willhill.

 

[doonhamer]

Leaving the outright's alone this week as I am in pathetic form, one bet that catches the eye is in Luvbet's Top International Market Olazabal is the obvious fav @ 4.5 but the player I fancy for a small EW bet 1/4 odds first 4 is Miguel Jiminez @ 41.00 He has missed the last 2 cuts in Germany and at Wentworth although he had decent first rounds and his 9th in the Masters reads well in this tournament with lesser players {Franco Senden etc} less than half his price purely on value I make Jiminez a decent EW bet in this weak field.

Doonhamer

 

[bettingmad]

Steve Stricker 1EW 50/1 Bet365
Not the force in the game I expected him to become but capable of beating this lot. Took this title in 1996 when he had the world at his feet, pity he tripped up over it instead of holding it in the palm of his hand. Showing glimpses of form this year with 4 top 20's including a 6th place just 2 weeks ago.


Phil Tataurangi 1EW 66/1 Bet365
Never carried my cash before so hope he is good under pressure! Two top 20's in five outings here. Has to be considered in a very weak field after some improved performances this year, 5th AT & T, 8th Bell South & 5th Colonial.

 

[superbook]

Stanley --

FWIW with all of the young guys on the tour I find L5 years of data more accurate than L10.

My selections look pretty much like yours.

All each way at SIA:

Appleby @ 26-1

Leonard @ 11-1

Hoch @ 51-1

Herron @ 51-1

The last two are long-shots but both have played well on this course, both are an identical -24 to PAR in four events in L5 years. Herron is 6,7,7, CUT in L5 years.

 

[Cartman88]

My outright plays for this week (similar to Stan which is usually a good sign):

Justin Leonard each way 11-1
Stuart Appleby each way 30-1
Mark Calcavecchia each way 33-1

 

[Stanley]

I agree with you Superbook

I provide a link to a '10-year summary' because I have the full 5-year course history for the week's field on my site - and I assume everyone knows the address - and the golfonline database is a resource that shouldn't be missed.

 

[steved]

low confidence week
0.5 ew Appleby 25/1 Hills
0.5 ew Herron 50/1 Blue Square
got my eye on P-UJ(???) but waiting to see what he posts on his website...

 

[Stanley]

P-U has withdrawn.

 

[Svengali]

Stanley - any word on Anders Hansen, he has disappeared from a couple of lists?

Cheers

 

[Stanley]

Not playing.

I don't know if he had originally entered and withdrew after winning the Volvo PGA, but his name was not on the Entry List on Monday morning and it is not on the starting times for Thursday.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Outrights to place @ Oly 1/2 unit
Funk 11/1
Maybe Funks Punks will pull him thru this year!

72 holes
Baird +110 over Tataurangi @ $plays
Tripp -110 over Couples @ Oly
Geiberger -120 over Burns @ Cascade
Lehman +105 over Applyby @ Cascade
Jose Marie -115 over Estes @ 365

 

[milpalm]

Lonard has withdrawn so I'm adding Tataurangi at 66/1. He has 3 top 10s this year and was 5th in his last outing. Tataurangi was 17th here last year and 19th in 1997.

 

[bettingmad]

Milpalm,
I just like to say I hope you have a very profitable week.... with Tataurangi and Leaney/Karlsson in the British Masters

 

[Svengali]

Molder to beat Crane - 10/11 UK Betting
Jiminez to beat Crane - 9/10 betandwin
Clark to beat Frazer - 10/11 UKbetting

Am opposing the men who did well last week basically. Crane's previous few weeks had been nothing short of horrific and Molder and Jiminez are far more consistent. Similarly Frazar has had some really bad weeks and Tim Clark is establishing himself nicely in the States recently.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Kirk Triplett to beat Tommy Armour -110 @ LuvBet [3 units]
Neither player in great form or with a great history on this course, but Triplett is by far the better player. Since finishing 7th in the Sony Open, Armour has missed 7 of 12 cuts with a best finish of 29th. Even an out-of-form Triplett can easily beat that. He leads him 4-2 in common events this year and can at least boast a cut ratio of 50% in this event; for Armour it is just four in the last ten years.

Tom Lehman to beat Mark Calcavecchia +105 @ Five Dimes
Continuing to oppose Calc who missed the cut by a long way last week after rounds of 75 and 76. Other than two weeks in April this has been a very difficult year for him. Lehman is coming nicely into form with three top-25 finishes and with a decent finish on this course last year, he can be expected to again be in contention at some stage this week.

Chris DiMarco to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -118 @ Centrebet
Siding with an outright pick against a player who has struggled this month. He should have won the French Open, but played poorly in the last round. He needed a final round 69 to prevent himself finishing last at the weekend in the Benson & Hedges International and just about came last of the weekend golfers last week in the Volvo PGA Championship. Olly will welcome the return to warmer weather, but this frustrating spell in cold, blustery Britain will not have aided his game. Too soon for a return to his pre-Europe form.

Frank Lickliter to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ LuvBet [2 units]
Don't get many opportunities to oppose Franco, but will take this one even with the defending champion. In typical Franco fashion, he made the cut last year, but gave up trying over the weekend. He closed 75-79 last year to finish 80th; last week he finished 78-79 to finish 75th in the Memorial and didn't even make the weekend in the tournament before that (the New Orleans Classic). Quite a contrast in form to Lickliter who shot a poor 74 to fall to 42nd last week, but had finished 8th in the Byron Nelson Classic and 12th in the MasterCard Colonial beforehand.

Steve Stricker to beat Phil Tataurangi -111 @ Ladbrokes
Will take a chance on Stricker in this match, basically because it very depends on him whether he wins this match or not. He has made just 7 cuts from 12 starts, but when he has made the weekend he has finished in the top-25 on six of those occasions. It is a similar story on this course. In the last six years, he has missed the cut twice, but on three of the other four occasions he finished in the top-10, winning the event in 1996. Tataurangi has had some impressive finishes this year, but can't compete with Stricker if he's brought his game with him.

 

[Myron]

Here are my plays:

Jose Maria Olazabal win only at 16/1

Tom Lehman e/w at 28/1

Matchup:
Olazabal -115 over Estes (should be easy money)

 

[Cartman88]

My matchups for this week:

Triplett -120 vs Couples @ Canbet
Norman +100 vs Sposa @ Canbet
Tataurangi -115 vs Toledo @ Centrebet
Estes +100 vs Howell @ Carib
Stricker -115 vs Waldorf @ Carib

 

[MrChristo]

There's a good value 3-ball I like on Day 1.

Ames over Gow/Gay 2.20 @ Centerbet.

I've seen as low as 1.80 for this, but Betandwin is down so they might have an even better price later. (They are hard to pick when it comes to pricing )