NAPOLI/UDINESE OVER 2.5 -110
There is value in this line if you ask me. . The xG #'s for these teams are juicy with Napoli ranked #1 xG, and Udinese not far behind as they are #6 overall in xG. Udinese is a MUCH better home team, and they are in super good form in their own park. Udinese has scored 2 goals or more in 5 straight home games, and they are unbeaten in their last 6 at home. Alot of the recent good fortune was because they beat up against some minnows at the bottom of the table, but make no mistake Udinese performs far better on their own pitch. They had multi goal games at home against Inter, Roma, Fiorentina, Atalanta, and they went to Napoli and almost stole one earlier in the year in a 3-2 defeat. Based on Udinese's recent form, and results at home this year I think we can count on them getting on the board. As for Napoli they should have wrapped up the Scuddetto on the weekend but pissed the game away in the last 20 minutes. I think they come out on a mission tomorrow, and Spaletti has them laser focused to finish the job. These guys looked distraught at the end of last game after not being able to wrap up the title in front of the home fans. I think they bring it tomorrow and we see the net pop a few times. To me we are getting one of the better home performing teams, against the most prolific road scoring team averaging 2+ on their travels. The history shows plenty of O2.5 , with the last 6 games totaling atleast 3 goals. Udinese is susceptible at the back they have given up plenty of multi goal games. I am hoping we see these teams run at each other, and looking for Krava and Osimhen to break through, they are a handful for anyone let alone Udinese's back line. I will take my chances at the price, I would play this at Over 2.5 - 138.