Went 1-1 yesterday, the Gladbach/Frankfurt over was easy as pie, Hertha/Mainz not so much. Now ticking around .500 on this thread, would like to catch another little hot streak. I feel the weekend has plenty of 'over' matchups in various leagues, and I am really looking forward to it. But first we need to get through mid week, and there is a ton of action.
I fear the dreaded 1-1 draw when some of the big heavy squads face off, as some of these can become tight affairs. I have mixed feelings on a few of these, but I have to stick to my guns.
INTER MILAN / NAPOLI OVER 2.5 - 138
Let's start with Inter, these are their scoring tallies the last few times out in Serie A - 3, 3, 3, 3. If you take out the 2 clean sheets vs Shaktar in UCL Inter has scored in every single other game this season. The offense is in super fire form, and again outside of those clean sheets they generally concede a goal themselves. Let's flip it over to Napoli, these are their recent scoring tallies the last few times out in Serie A - 2, 4, 4, 1. The two teams average over 5 goals a game, they are in top the top 2 or 3 in all of these categories; shots, shots on target ( 1 & 2), goals (1 &2), crosses. We are backing the 2 highest scoring teams in the league to find the net 3 times in this game. I think this line should be higher honestly, and I fear the 1-1 draw, but given the above argument this is an auto play for how I cap games. As I write this the line has gone down to -125.
JUVENTUS/ATALANTA OVER 2.5 - 138
I have really enjoyed watching Atalanta over the last 2 years. When this team is in form they are joy to watch, and play super entertaining football. They were stuck in the mud for quite awhile, but I am hoping the recent good form will continue. They are coming into this off a 3 goal effort vs Fiorentina on the weekend. Atalanta has one of the most prolific offenses in Europe, but they are hardly known for the defensive efficiency. I know they just strung together 2 clean sheets in a row, but I don't trust that to continue. Juventus has really been hitting their stride on offense as is evident by their recent scoring performances in all competitions - 3, 3, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2. Both teams combine for over 4 goals a game, they are right around the top 5 or better in shots, shots on target, goals, crosses. I think there will be chances, again this could be a tight affair, but given the %'s of how things typically play out I will take my chance with them finding the net 3 times.
Good Luck
Damnit first one in and its the 1-1 tie I hoped to avoid. I wouldn't change a thing though if I had to do it all over again. If you told me that they would have 27 shots ( 13 on target) between these two, and that Ronaldo would be up for a penalty kick with 30 minutes remaining to cash my ticket, I would take my chances. He missed the first spot kick in months, damnnnnnn.