Boom and missed half time play by a free throw. Hit one of two money lines. I?ll take the profit.
MaRcH mAdNeSs & BiG dAnCe 2022
- Thread starter WildBillPicks7
- Start date
Boom and missed half time play by a free throw. Hit one of two money lines. I?ll take the profit.
Sweet 10 unit hit on the over!!! I was on the fence as far as playing Duke or the Over ? was leaning over and seeing the 10 unit sealed the deal .. was getting a little nervous towards the end but a couple key shots made it happen!! Look forward to seeing your title play
3-3 on Saturday, Nova really missed their other guard didn't they? They sucked shooting the ball and that's uncharacteristic of Nova teams current and past. Oh well at least UNC hung in there and got the SU win and went over the total in the waning moments.
CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY
First a few things why I like my plays, first and foremost is how UNC plays "D" and how they grab extra offensive boards, KU does the same and have a lottery pick potential in the lineup, UNC has players who compliment each other for sure, Hubert Davis has been here as a player and assistant, first time as a HC, Self has been here too. Angles, KU is 3-1 L4 vs UNC, 3-1 of last 4 have gone under the total, all since 1997, none in the last 3 years however. KU is a #1 seed, UNC is a #8 seed, how UNC got such a lower seed I'm still shaking my head even how they beat Duke in the ACC at Duke and how they played down the stretch before losing to VT in the ACC tourney. KU lost at Baylor and TCU in the BIG12 reg season and averaged 76 pts on the rd while allowing 68, in their last 5, they've averaged 75 and gave up 60, blowing out Nova the last game as a 4/4 1/2 pt favorite. UNC has been averaging 10 pts or better vs their L5 opponents and total points averaged just over 145 1/2 per game, KU 15 pt margin difference and 136 total points in their games and in neutral site games KU has averaged 80 points while allowing 66, UNC in neutral site games are averaging 75 ppg and allow 73 ppg, so huge difference in margin for Kansas here at +12 point edge. As a dog UNC is scoring 78 ppg and allow 79 ppg, but as an away dog they average 81 ppg and allow 75 ppg, +6 pt margin, they are a +9 margin difference than non-conference opponents.
Now Kansas in away games just a +1 margin difference scoring 71 ppg and giving 70 ppg, neutral site games scoring 80 ppg and giving 66 ppg, post season tourney averaging 77 and give 61 for +16 margin, as a fav they ave 79 ppg and give up 67 ppg for +12 margin, as an away fav they score 71 ppg and allow 69 ppg for a +2 ppg margin.
Other angles here, #1 seeds fav >2 pts are 8-2 ATS, #5 or worse seeds as dogs are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS L7, Dogs of 3> more points off a SU win are just 0-4 ATS, Dogs >2 points allowing more than 60 pts last game and played in the Final 4 are 0-5 L5 games.
Ain't that all some SHIT?!!!
As a talent observer I saw how much bigger and efficient KU was over Nova last game and how athletic as well as equal height UNC was to Duke and how that pairs here vs KU, UNC has some heighth and ruggedness that will come into play here and both teams have fans in attendance for sure, KU shooting last game was out of their minds over a smaller opponent hitting 53% from the field and 54.2% from 3 point land!! WHAT THE FUCK? 54.2%???? WOW!! KU also had 83% from the stripe!! Not too shabby flabby!! UNC shot a shitty 42% from the field and just 38% from trey land, they only allowed 22.7% from trey land, just under 42% from the field and 60% from the stripe so the players UNC fouled for Puke shot like shit. UNC had 50 rebounds while allowing 41 vs Puke. KU had 35 rebounds and allowed 28? Hmmm.. What's this all mean?
Team speed and "D" will make the difference as well as second half adjustments, so I'm backing the DOG here as I see this as a pick 'em game and overall talent I give a slight edge to UNC as well as home edge in fans and the fact Hubert Davis is in his first Final as a HC and he's pretty savvy as a former guard in the UNC playing days as well as in the NBA.
My Angle I've used for years, you can go back to 2004 with my first post perhaps, I always take the underdog who outrebounds their opponents by 10 or more during the NCAA tourney and beat a #2 or higher aka #1 seed last game out, if a dog >3 1/2 points. This falls into place. Go to statfox.com to confirm stats.
Here we go:
UNC +4 (10 units) - UNC 77 KU 76
UNC +160 (5 units)
1H: UNC +2 (5 units)
Over 151 (1 unit)
9-2, +67.9, 10 unit
0-1, -11.0, 10 unit half time
14-14-1, -7.0, 5 unit
0-1, -5.5, 2H play, 5 unit
0-1, -1.1, 1H play, 1 unit
11-21, -12.1, 1 unit
2-4, +1.65, 1 unit ML
WON 35.....LOSS...41....PUSH....1.... +/-, +55.45 units, as of 3/12/22 (corrected as of 3/21/22)
CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY
First a few things why I like my plays, first and foremost is how UNC plays "D" and how they grab extra offensive boards, KU does the same and have a lottery pick potential in the lineup, UNC has players who compliment each other for sure, Hubert Davis has been here as a player and assistant, first time as a HC, Self has been here too. Angles, KU is 3-1 L4 vs UNC, 3-1 of last 4 have gone under the total, all since 1997, none in the last 3 years however. KU is a #1 seed, UNC is a #8 seed, how UNC got such a lower seed I'm still shaking my head even how they beat Duke in the ACC at Duke and how they played down the stretch before losing to VT in the ACC tourney. KU lost at Baylor and TCU in the BIG12 reg season and averaged 76 pts on the rd while allowing 68, in their last 5, they've averaged 75 and gave up 60, blowing out Nova the last game as a 4/4 1/2 pt favorite. UNC has been averaging 10 pts or better vs their L5 opponents and total points averaged just over 145 1/2 per game, KU 15 pt margin difference and 136 total points in their games and in neutral site games KU has averaged 80 points while allowing 66, UNC in neutral site games are averaging 75 ppg and allow 73 ppg, so huge difference in margin for Kansas here at +12 point edge. As a dog UNC is scoring 78 ppg and allow 79 ppg, but as an away dog they average 81 ppg and allow 75 ppg, +6 pt margin, they are a +9 margin difference than non-conference opponents.
Now Kansas in away games just a +1 margin difference scoring 71 ppg and giving 70 ppg, neutral site games scoring 80 ppg and giving 66 ppg, post season tourney averaging 77 and give 61 for +16 margin, as a fav they ave 79 ppg and give up 67 ppg for +12 margin, as an away fav they score 71 ppg and allow 69 ppg for a +2 ppg margin.
Other angles here, #1 seeds fav >2 pts are 8-2 ATS, #5 or worse seeds as dogs are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS L7, Dogs of 3> more points off a SU win are just 0-4 ATS, Dogs >2 points allowing more than 60 pts last game and played in the Final 4 are 0-5 L5 games.
Ain't that all some SHIT?!!!
As a talent observer I saw how much bigger and efficient KU was over Nova last game and how athletic as well as equal height UNC was to Duke and how that pairs here vs KU, UNC has some heighth and ruggedness that will come into play here and both teams have fans in attendance for sure, KU shooting last game was out of their minds over a smaller opponent hitting 53% from the field and 54.2% from 3 point land!! WHAT THE FUCK? 54.2%???? WOW!! KU also had 83% from the stripe!! Not too shabby flabby!! UNC shot a shitty 42% from the field and just 38% from trey land, they only allowed 22.7% from trey land, just under 42% from the field and 60% from the stripe so the players UNC fouled for Puke shot like shit. UNC had 50 rebounds while allowing 41 vs Puke. KU had 35 rebounds and allowed 28? Hmmm.. What's this all mean?
Team speed and "D" will make the difference as well as second half adjustments, so I'm backing the DOG here as I see this as a pick 'em game and overall talent I give a slight edge to UNC as well as home edge in fans and the fact Hubert Davis is in his first Final as a HC and he's pretty savvy as a former guard in the UNC playing days as well as in the NBA.
My Angle I've used for years, you can go back to 2004 with my first post perhaps, I always take the underdog who outrebounds their opponents by 10 or more during the NCAA tourney and beat a #2 or higher aka #1 seed last game out, if a dog >3 1/2 points. This falls into place. Go to statfox.com to confirm stats.
Here we go:
UNC +4 (10 units) - UNC 77 KU 76
UNC +160 (5 units)
1H: UNC +2 (5 units)
Over 151 (1 unit)
9-2, +67.9, 10 unit
0-1, -11.0, 10 unit half time
14-14-1, -7.0, 5 unit
0-1, -5.5, 2H play, 5 unit
0-1, -1.1, 1H play, 1 unit
11-21, -12.1, 1 unit
2-4, +1.65, 1 unit ML
WON 35.....LOSS...41....PUSH....1.... +/-, +55.45 units, as of 3/12/22 (corrected as of 3/21/22)
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Fantastic write up!! Appreciate the time you took for a thorough write up backing your play!! I sure hope your right!! I was hoping you were gonna be on UNC? I was going with them as well? see a lot of people on KU as well but I?ll definitely take the points in this one!! GO TAR HEELS!! Wrap up this ncaab season with a strong 10 unit victory .
Mostly a hunch and backed up by an angle I've used in the NCAA tourney finals the past few years. I'll be up for this game that's for sure!!
Good luck to us OWENS!!
:toast:
Year Matchup (Seed) Spread Score Winner ATS Winner
2021 Baylor (1) vs. Gonzaga (1) Gonzaga -4.5 86-70 Baylor Baylor +4.5
2020 None (Tournament Cancelled) None None None None
2019 Virginia (1) vs Texas Tech (3) Virginia -2 85-77 Virginia Virginia -2
2018 Villanova (1) vs. Michigan (3) Villanova -7 79-62 Villanova Villanova -7
2017 Gonzaga (1) vs. North Carolina (1) North Carolina -1 71-65 North Carolina North Carolina -1
2016 Villanova (2) vs. North Carolina (1) North Carolina -2 77-74 Villanova Villanova +2
2015 Wisconsin (1) vs. Duke (1) Wisconsin -1 68-63 Duke Duke +1
2014 Kentucky (8) vs. Connecticut (7) Kentucky -2.5 60-54 Connecticut Connecticut +2.5
2013 Michigan St (4) vs. Louisville (1) Louisville -4 82-76 Louisville Louisville -4
2012 Kansas (2) vs. Kentucky (1) Kentucky -6.5 67-59 Kentucky Kentucky -6.5
2011 Butler (8) vs. Connecticut (3) Connecticut -3 53-41 Connecticut Connecticut -3
2010 Butler (5) vs. Duke (1) Duke -7 61-59 Duke Butler +7
2009 Michigan St (2) vs. N. Carolina (1) N. Carolina -7.5 89-72 N. Carolina N. Carolina -7.5
2008 Memphis (1) vs. Kansas (1) Memphis -2 75-68 (OT) Kansas Kansas +2
2007 Ohio State (1) vs. Florida (1) Florida -4 84-75 Florida Florida -4
2006 Florida (3) vs. UCLA (2) Florida -1 73-57 Florida Florida -1
2005 Illinois (1) vs. N. Carolina (1) N. Carolina -2 75-70 N. Carolina N. Carolina -2
2004 Ga Tech (3) vs. Connecticut (2) Connecticut -5 82-73 Connecticut Connecticut -5
2003 Syracuse (3) vs. Kansas (2) Kansas -5.5 81-78 Syracuse Syracuse +5.5
?My Angle I've used for years, you can go back to 2004 with my first post perhaps,?
I could only go as far back as 2020 for your posts
Great play !!! I feel very Lucky to have held on to the cover !!! Unbelievable!! Kansas doesn?t step out of bounds we may have been in trouble ? is what it is ? put it in the books .. stings they couldn?t have held on to win but again.. that cover felt like a blessing!!! Thanks for posts as always !!!
I believe if you click on my username and go to profile and threads started you can go back pretty far unless they automatically archive after some time due to space perhaps by the web server for this site? IDK to be exact.
Yes, it was 2004, I acutally started earlier than that but had a different name when I was on AOL, LOL.
Thanks! :0074
Thanks, I felt confident UNC would cover obviously but also thought they'd win SU. I didn't like the total much, Bacot played his ankles off so to speak, there were some easy misses in the paint for UNC and I can say the same for KU, UNC didn't play Braun well, he zipped passed his defender like they were statues.
Anyways, we made money, FH hit along with UNC +4 or +4 1/2 or whatever ya'll got over 3 1/2.
Not bad bank for less than a month posting college hoops after football was fucking overwith!!
Thanks for all the support ya'll!
MLB is next!!
:00hour
2-2, +8.9 units!! Congrats to the Jayhawks and Bill Self, and great run by UNC and Coach Hubert Davis and the Tarheels. They played balls out!!
10-2, +77.9, 10 unit
0-1, -11.0, 10 unit half time
14-14-1, -7.0, 5 unit
0-1, -5.5, 2H play, 5 unit
1-0, +5.0, 1H play, 5 unit
0-1, -1.1, 1H play, 1 unit
11-22, -13.2, 1 unit
2-4, +1.65, 1 unit ML
0-1, -5.0, 5 unit ML
WON 37.....LOSS...43....PUSH....1.... +/-, +64.35 units, as of 3/12/22 (corrected as of 3/21/22)
10-2, +77.9, 10 unit
0-1, -11.0, 10 unit half time
14-14-1, -7.0, 5 unit
0-1, -5.5, 2H play, 5 unit
1-0, +5.0, 1H play, 5 unit
0-1, -1.1, 1H play, 1 unit
11-22, -13.2, 1 unit
2-4, +1.65, 1 unit ML
0-1, -5.0, 5 unit ML
WON 37.....LOSS...43....PUSH....1.... +/-, +64.35 units, as of 3/12/22 (corrected as of 3/21/22)
Looks like my earliest thread started goes back to 11-17-2015, NBA forum. Earlier plays are probably archived or in the trash!
