Round 1 plays (4pts):
Luke Donald to beat Victor Dubuisson +100 @ The Greek
With three top-10 finishes here, Donald has shown that he can play well around this course and while his ball-striking is still not as good it was back then (prior to the swing changes), his short game is still good enough to ensure that he can score well around this course. He did, after all, finish 7th in the Honda Classic last month. Dubuisson missed the cut on his debut last year, plus he has played in only eight PGA Tour events, so I don't see him as a contender this week and not a favourite against Donald.
Bubba Watson to beat Jason Day +105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]
A matchup between two players who should be in contention this week. Yes, it is difficult to defend the title in this event, but that shouldn't make Watson a clear underdog against Day. He does have the advantage of having previous been a Masters Champion - he has won in two of the last three years here - and he is in very good form, finishing 3rd last time out in the Cadillac Championship. Day finished 31st that week and was again well out of contention in his only start since that event (the Arnold Palmer Invitational).
Jose Maria Olazabal to beat Darren Clarke +120 @ Paddy Power
Olazabal has made the last two cuts here and recorded a very impressive top-10 finish two weeks ago in the Trophee Hassan II. Clarke did make the cut last year (though he still finished behind Olazabal), but it was his first cut made here since 2006 and in terms of their h2h record at Augusta National, Olazabal holds a 8-1-0 record against Clarke since 2001. With Clarke in very poor form - his finishes in 2015 read mc-mc-mc-mc-67th-15th-mc - I don't see why he such a clear favourite against Olazabal.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Kirk tb Lowry -120; Donald tb Grace -119]
Luke Donald to beat Victor Dubuisson +100 @ The Greek
With three top-10 finishes here, Donald has shown that he can play well around this course and while his ball-striking is still not as good it was back then (prior to the swing changes), his short game is still good enough to ensure that he can score well around this course. He did, after all, finish 7th in the Honda Classic last month. Dubuisson missed the cut on his debut last year, plus he has played in only eight PGA Tour events, so I don't see him as a contender this week and not a favourite against Donald.
Bubba Watson to beat Jason Day +105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]
A matchup between two players who should be in contention this week. Yes, it is difficult to defend the title in this event, but that shouldn't make Watson a clear underdog against Day. He does have the advantage of having previous been a Masters Champion - he has won in two of the last three years here - and he is in very good form, finishing 3rd last time out in the Cadillac Championship. Day finished 31st that week and was again well out of contention in his only start since that event (the Arnold Palmer Invitational).
Jose Maria Olazabal to beat Darren Clarke +120 @ Paddy Power
Olazabal has made the last two cuts here and recorded a very impressive top-10 finish two weeks ago in the Trophee Hassan II. Clarke did make the cut last year (though he still finished behind Olazabal), but it was his first cut made here since 2006 and in terms of their h2h record at Augusta National, Olazabal holds a 8-1-0 record against Clarke since 2001. With Clarke in very poor form - his finishes in 2015 read mc-mc-mc-mc-67th-15th-mc - I don't see why he such a clear favourite against Olazabal.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Kirk tb Lowry -120; Donald tb Grace -119]
