Mercedes Championships

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Retief Goosen to win 11/1 e.w. @ Tote
Won the last tournament of the 2004 PGA Tour season and should have a good chance of winning the first one of 2005. He has a good record on Bermuda greens, ranked 1st in three-putt avoidance last year which should be relevant as the greens on the Plantation course are enormous and ranked 2nd in par-5 scoring which is commonly seen as important around this course. So no surprise that he has finished 4th in each of the last two years here and well-rested, he does look a very strong contender this week.

David Toms to win 30/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods
The next two selections are nowhere near as consistent, but have both shown that they can play well on this course and on these greens. The Louisiana resident should put a good record on Bermuda greens to his advantage this week. He has done in finishing 8th and 2nd in his last two appearances and after his injury-plagued first half of 2004, he did finish the season in much more consistent form with top-10 finishes in his last three starts and top-25 finishes in his last eight starts. With course experience so important this week and a large number of event rookies on view, these look generous odds for this type of player.

Jonathan Byrd to finish in the top-four 25/1 @ GolfingGods
Byrd can also compete on Bermuda greens and the first of his two Tour wins was on these greens in Georgia. He is very much a player who can blow hot as well as cold, but he did have two top-10 finishes at the end of last season, including 3rd in the 84 Lumber Classic, and he did close with a 10-under-par 63 to finish 6th on his previous appearance two years ago. That experience is very important this week and these odds really are too high for a place finish.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I marked down Byrd a few weeks ago and nabbed a price I like. Perhaps its because Byrd was one of my nice hits last year but I thought with his length and the wide open fairways he would have a shot. Was nice to see Stanley open with him as well.

Byrd 100 .5u ew 1/4 1234

I pledge this year to have a lot more restraint when it comes to wagering. I made some profits last year but could have made a lot more. One thing is sure though.....i'm having a lot more fun wagering on golf than the US sports that always seemed to find a way to drain me of my funds!

Like ZJohnson here too but cant see to find anymore 66.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Alright D-Day has arrived-the start of 05 season.
Will contiue last years mode of throwing in a few here and there but once again will not do full blown selections as past years.

a couple of 72 holes
Franco -106 over Hamilton @ Pinnacle
Byrd -120 over Palmer @ Bet Fred

Bet Fred is new book open to U.S. that I picked up end of last year. Not that impressed as they offer ties lose and no place odds but do have unique matchups as one above. Don't know if they will be worth keeping as only viable plays I see there is an occasional 72 hole match.

---and backed Toms to place @ GG in outrights when they 1st dropped odds in Dec.



Ref Date/Time Tour Tournament
2111 26-12-04 14:34
USPGA Mercedes Championship

Event Description Market Selection Price
Place Betting PO 1-4 TOMS, David 8.50

Type Stake EW Total Stake Return Status Result
Single $20.00 N $20.00 $170.00 Open NA

 

[Stanley]

Ditto DTB, though I'm surprised at the Franco/Hamilton line movement!

Matchup plays (1.5pts):

Stephen Ames to beat Chad Campbell -103 @ Pinnacle
No course experience for Ames, but he does have a very good record in Hawaii with top-15 finishes in his last three Sony Open starts and Campbell has been poor for quite some time. Ames had a 16-7-0 h2h lead over him in 2004 so these odds do appear a little generous.
(also available at Carib)

Jonathan Byrd to beat Ryan Palmer -120 @ SkyBet and BetFred
Siding with the outright selection against a player who has only ever had two top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour. With course experience also in his favour, Byrd should be a stronger favourite.

David Toms to beat Stewart Cink -110 @ SkyBet
Toms finished the 2004 in much better form with three top-10 finishes and finishing ahead of Cink in each of their last three common events. So with a 2nd place finish on this course in the Kapalua International in 1997 to add to finishes of 19ht, 8th and 2nd in this event, Toms should be set for at least another top-10 finish and another victory over Cink.
(also available at BetFred and Olympic)

David Toms to beat Adam Scott +100 @ Paddy Power
This is a course that should suit Scott, but he has a game to rediscover after some indifferent displays at the end of last season and particularly in Australia where he courted controversy by skipping his home Open. Just too much in Toms favour at this stage of the season and that makes evens very attractive odds.

Carlos Franco to beat Todd Hamilton +102 @ Pinnacle
Franco has course experience, whereas Hamilton does not and Franco has finished ahead of the American in nine of their last eleven common events. Can't see why Franco should be odds-against!
(also available at BetFred)

Carlos Franco to beat Craig Parry -105 @ Carib
Not as clear cut, but Parry showed in Japan and Australia at the end of 2004 that he is not as competitive as 12 or 24 months ago. He finished 25th in his previous appearance on this course in 2003 and another lowly finish is expected of him.
(also available at Olympic and Expekt)

Retief Goosen to beat Sergio Garcia -125 @ Paddy Power and BetFred
He's won his last two events, ignoring the made-for-TV Grand Slam of Golf, finished 4th in the last two years here and has finished ahead of Garcia in five of their last six common events. Both potential winners, but Goosen is still in a different class to the young Spaniard.
(available generally)

 

[stomie]

Goosen over Woods +155 @ 5Dimes

Toms over Garcia +105 @ 5Dimes

Hamilton over Franco +110 @ 5Dimes

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I owe Bet Fred apologie as they do have place only odds up.
Was main reason for signing with them. Much happier now

 

[Stanley]

Yes, they could have made it clearer where the place-only was ... I would have missed it had I not scrolled down the page for the outright market

btw have you checked out wagerweb? I heard that they had some very innovative props for each round and they certainly are! If only I had the time to research them

 

[phar lap]

Great info on this site guys. Thanks. I started punting on the golf last year with some minor success, usually on the 18-hole spread match bets at SportingIndex. Unfortunately they havent posted any lines for the match bets so far, which is surprising. So I'll just post from the Betfair markets. I like two matches in the first round.

1.Toms vs Flesch

Toms $1.79. He finished off last year much better than Flesch, averaging under 70 for his last 30 odd rounds. If he holds that form then the price looks attractive.

2. Geiberger vs Stolz

Geiberger $1.88. Stolz is just a player and apart from his win against a weak field in October, actually performed quite poorly last year. Geiberger on the other hand finished off the season well, with some good scores in his last few events.

 

[veride]

1. Mercedes Championship

1. Mercedes Championship

Win Only :

Vijay Singh --> 5/1 William Hill

Each-Way 1/4 1-4 :

Stephen Ames --> 40/1 William Hill

 

[Chadman]

Getting in my wagers really late at crap odds, but better late than never, eh? Everything at GG for this weekend.

2* Each Way Tiger Woods (3.25) 1/4 1-4
Risk 4* to win 9.625*

1* Place Bet David Toms (6.5) 1-4
Risk 1* to win 6.5*

1* Place Bet Rod Pampling (26) 1-4
Risk 1* to win 26*

2* Stewart Cink (1.90) Matchup over Stuart Appleby
2* to win 3.8*

Total Tournament Outlay: 8* to win 45.925*

This will be my one and only shot at such low odds for Tiger or anyone, most likely. I just love how sharp and confident he looks playing around Kapalua this week...totally different from last season. Perfect balance, tempo, hard shot, soft shot, high, low, stingers, etc. Will try to catch lightning in a bottle out of the gate, despite the prohibitive chalk. Wish I had DTB's odds on Toms, but will try him anyway to hit the board. I think Pampling is well suited to this course and his length and quality putting is a good combo at a great price. And love Cink against Applebly, although I thought Appleby's injury was worse than maybe is now being reported. Guess I got sucked in but still have to like Cink on this course.

Good luck, and here's to a great year!

 

[veride]

matchups 1

matchups 1

S. Ames to beat C. Campbell --> 1,826 (-121)

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Hmm Some interesting props indeed--thanks for heads up there Stan--I had never heard of them. Will be curious to see what develops there.
One could certainly exploit those combined 1st and 2nd rd props if wind was south-south west (kona winds) but looks like from weather service might get a little on last day, but other wise normal tade winds this year.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Going to give em a try on a prop
Winning score under 272.5 -115

Got funded via Neteller in no time flat
--site hard to navigate

Yikes Much better Prop @ B&W
under 274 +115
took my $25 limit there also

 

[LARGE222]

have had some time to take a look at this
first tournament out of box is tough to get a handle on who has been working and who hasn't.
have to go against Campbell with Ames. Campbell showed last year the putter is not working and this course has shown that putting is the key stat here. with that fact Ames is deadly with the putter and had a tremendous year last year.
the only thing that worries me is that Ames has the reputation of a guy that likes to <enjoy> life.
if he is anywhere near form he should win this match
AMES LAID -03 at PINNACLE for 1 UNIT

another play at pinnacle
1/2 UNIT on Toms over Weir +03 at pinnacle
hard to buck weir with his record here but really liked the way toms finished the season coming off hand surgery.
I know he is an extremely hard worker and look for him to have a great year.. he is also a very good putter and weir also has good putter stats but if you look closely at his stats he will have streaks of real good putting followed by <average> .. I hope this is one of his average weeks

also at pinnacle pampling -06 over daly for 1 unit
a bet against daly. I like daly to watch but don't want my money on him. pampling very solid last year and already has 2 tournament in since daly played at tour champ with Australian pga and Australian open

if you see the m/u I also took hensby +05 over Campbell at 5 dimes for 1 unit
same reasoning as the Ames play
hensby off a great year and ranked 21 on tour with the putter vs Campbell at 162

 

[Stanley]

Wagerweb used to be betcbs, but cbs made them change their name.

I presume they must be leasing out their golf lines as they are now available at BetOdessa and Hollywood sportsbooks as well.

 

[stomie]

FRED FUNK over BART BRYANT (1ST RND) -1/2 -135

 

[lostinamerica]

Happy New Year! It's great to see the old crew lining up, and new recruits coming aboard. Good Luck wishes all around!

I am not at all up to speed - maybe I will be and maybe I won't be 48 hours or a week from now - but for now I'll test the water slowly.



Tiger Woods(4/1) e.w. in U.S. Masters @ Bet365
- - I haven't once doubted Tiger's greatness in 29 years, and I'm not about to start. I'm believing what my eyes and ears are telling me, and sooner rather than later. The landscape has changed and it won't be like it was, but it will be better than "almost" great.



OUTRIGHTS:

Jonathan Byrd(80/1) e.w. @ Bet 365
- - Sorry guys, but apparently I have my eyes on some of the same things. Merely speculation on my part without any attempt at research, but these are the angles that are tripping my switches: (1) A medical setback that has been overcome is the biggest elixir; (2) Jonathan is a meticulous type (just his name, come to think of it) with big ambitions and perhaps the talent to match, and I suspect he stuck to his knitting with rest and preparation during the silly season because his eyes are focused on making his name on this Tour, and he would covet a quick start; (3) Some Kapalua experience and a compatible game, no lack of confidence, and some streaky zones.



MATCHUPS:

Flesch(-130)(Tournament) over Daly @ 5dimes
- - The antithesis of Byrd when it comes to drive and meticulousness during the silly season. But the play is really founded on an interview in which Daily was riding around in a cart and talking about the struggle he anticipated in getting around Kapalua for 72 holes this week. I may look to fade John over the weekend, but I prefer testing him over the full 72 holes.

Woods(-135)(Tournament) over Singh @ Bet365
- - An offer I couldn't refuse.

Franco(-130)(Tournament) over Hamilton @ 5dimes
- - Tacking through the wind and navigating big greens can't compensate for the fact that this course starts with launching it high and far off the tee. In the past I have rarely had a sweet feel for plays on or against Franco, so I'm leaning a little on Stan's 9 of 11 stat in electing Franco over several other possible opponents, but I also like the fact that Carlos enjoys the big stage and big money.



Always worth a read - Dave Tindall @ bettingzone.co.uk:
(1) http://www.bettingzone.co.uk/golf/b...TORY_NAME=betting/05/01/03/manual_151822.html
(2) http://www.bettingzone.co.uk/golf/b...TORY_NAME=betting/04/12/29/manual_163921.html (just one of several previews)



GL

 

[Apollo Kid]

Tournament matchup

Tournament matchup

Yes, Happy New Year to everyone. Glad I found this site last year. Real good posters.

Just one matchup early as I have college basketball going. Hope to get more golf plays in once basketball winds down and PGA has some tournaments completed.

Toms -125 over Weir
-- To win one unit.

GL.

 

[sports student]

not listing any official plays as most what I have is already covered above this. Have some plays involved going against Cink this week. Funny how some things stick in your mind that probably mean nothing but I remember last year (or year before) while the tourney was going on Cink was in the swimming pool with his family and looking like he was there for vacation only. That in itself don't mean much but it got me thinking and I looked over his record and in the last 3 years in January he has played 5 times and missed the cut 3 times while finishing 28th and 50th in the other two. Hopefully this means that he works his way into the year gradually and is not very focused early in the year. Good luck with your plays this year guys!

 

[phar lap]

1st round results

Toms to beat Flesch - Loss of 1.26 units
Geiberger to beat Stolz - Win of 1 unit

Total 1-1 -0.26



Round 2

Will revert to my normal course of 18 hole spread bets.

1. Hamilton/Stolz 0 -3 @ Sportsacumen

Buy 1 unit at 3 to be with Hamilton.


2. Hensby/ Pampling 0 - 3 @ Sportsacumen

Sell 1 unit @ 0 to be with Pampling.