Mercedes Championships

DOGS THAT BARK

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--Am trying to be cautious in this event as I remember well in years past the crew in general did not fair well on the Island's.With that being said I could cull all but a handful :)
Toms -125 over Appleby @VIP
Franco -120 over Palmer @ 5dimes
Flesch -110 over Austin CBET (ties lose) I trie my hardest not to look at books with ties lose but was hawking their in running place and couldn't avoid temptation with this line.

Props
Ames over 29.5 putts -110
Johnson -115 over Parry (lowest stroke total on par 3's and par 5's)
 

lostinamerica

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MATCHUPS (2nd Round):

Toms(-130) over Appleby @ Infinity
- - Ian Baker Finch flew in to Hawaii with Appleby, and was discussing the fact Appleby was hoping to play well rather than expecting to play well. Appleby's wife is expecting their first child in about six days, he injured himself (leg(s)?) recently and hasn't been hitting balls, and was really stiff and sore after the flight. That's a little much for me to beware the defending champ, and he wasn't sharp yesterday with his GIR stats . . . Toms was on my radar as one to watch, and a pairing with Goosen should produce some solid golf.

GL
 

rrc

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2nd round play

Tiger -130 ov Daly (score combined for Par 3 and Par 5s)
 

sports student

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In Running

Toms -130 over Appleby (infinity)

Hey LIA I think your bet is an in-running tournament bet instead of 2nd round. Kind of confusing as it is the only one listed that way, the rest are 2nd round lines-probably as least as good if not better bet this way, don't you think?
 

Trampled Underfoot

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I thought I posted something about that but I guess I didnt. After LIA posted I made a small play on that wager too.

Infinity still has it up and they both went off awhile ago. They must have made a mistake and left it from the pre-tournament wagers. We'll see what happens.
 

phar lap

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The Lucky Country
Round 2 results

1. Hamilton/Stolz Buy Hamilton at 3 for 1 unit

Loss by 1 stroke. Loss of 16 units

2. Hensby/Pampling Sell Hensby at 0 (to be with Pampling) for 1 unit

Win by 1 stroke. Win of 13 units.

Total loss of 3 units.

YTD 2-2 -3.26 units


Round 3 Matches

1. Hamilton/Palmer -1.5 / 1.5 at Sportsacumen

Sell at -1.5 to be with Palmer for 1 unit

2. Ames/Geiberger 2 - 5 at Sportsacumen

Sell at 2 to be with Geiberger for 1 unit

3. Byrd/ Bryant 2 - 5 at Sportsacumen

Sell at 2 to be with Bryant for 1 unit
 
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Stanley

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Further outright play (1.5pts):

Sergio Garcia to win 14/1 e.w. @ Coral and BetFred
In the six years that the Mercedes Championship has been played at the Plantation Course at Kapalua, the winner has been 1st or 2nd after 36 holes on all but one occasion. Low scores may be the norm around this course, but it doesn?t mean that catch-up is easier than elsewhere. The only exception to the above trend was in 2002 when Sergio Garcia was 18th and seven shots out of the lead after 36 holes, but caught David Toms and beat him in a playoff. The way that Sergio is playing at the moment, he can certainly climb from 4th and make up the difference of four shots on Vijay Singh. Alongside Els, it is Sergio Garcia who tops the greens in regulation stats. They have missed only two of 36 greens and with only a slight improvement in their putting stats would have been in the final pairing today. Garcia?s sole bogey in the tournament was courtesy of a 3-putt yesterday when he missed from inside 3-feet. His overall game is very impressive and particularly so as he has new clubs in his bag. He can at least draw on his 2002 win to believe that he is not merely fighting for the place finishes.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Just when I mention Island hex it bites me in the ass.:)

Got one I'll put up today
Els(+ 1/2 stroke) -130 over Cink @ Hollywood or Wagerweb

Liking lots of props there also especially the GIR's
---and speaking of weather-- Sunday looks horrible with projected Kona wind and heavy rain.
 

RhodyFan

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been watching you guys for a while. Stan is the man. gonna throw my hat into the ring

Sergio -0.5 over Campbell (-122) for 100 (WSEX)
 

sports student

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Woods over 13 1/2 GIR -150 (Hollywood) 3rd round

always a little timid when I see these props since I am fairly new to them but Woods has hit 17 and 16 the first 2 days and the weather seems to be good today so why is Woods number 13 1/2 when almost everyone else is 14 1/2? -150 is a lot to give but still seems like a bargain here
 

lostinamerica

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EDIT - Just saw your last post sports student - that makes part of my post moot - "lost" is right! :rolleyes:


Welcome, RhodyFan - I hope your season is loaded with timely birdies and huge pars.


sports student:
- - (1) Yes, I would have rated yesterday's Toms vs. Appleby wager an even stronger play when for the event as opposed to just Friday; (2) Nothing upsets me more than mistakes that are entirely within my control, and making an erroneous play is about the pinnacle on that score; as soon as I saw what I had done, I would have been 120% resigned to desrving a fate of having my teeth kicked in on the play, except for the fact I had contributed the play to the forum, which instead had me sheepishly hoping I could apologize for some stupid luck; while the intended play as posted certainly needs to be graded as a loss, it turns out I still have money invested in opposition to Appleby, so I am spared for the rest of the week from having to look any further in that direction; and (3) Once again, nice run in the NFL contest (8th), too bad you didn't come up big on the final Sunday. Great job by ageecee (2nd) in the NCAA football contest, also.


MATCHUPS (3rd Round):

Campbell(-130) over Daly @ 5dimes
- - During two looks on Thursday, I had to recognize Campbell by his mannerisms rather than his build, as he has definitely embraced a fitness program. Nevertheless, the real impression from those two looks (one of which came on a hole grazing putt) was that steely and laid back air that was absent down the stretch last year, and I almost slapped my forehead with a belief his reemergence early this year was almost too obvious to have been overlooked. That thinking easily landed a small wager yesterday in opposition to Adam Scott . . . Chad has come up big in the grain and wind of Florida, closes well on his opportunities, and gets a nice spotlight pairing today . . . Daly has made his score early in both rounds, which is consistent with my take on his level of performance in this event . . . Ever onward.

GL
 
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sports student

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LIA when it somes to that Toms-Appleby I was not too bright myself when I thought they had really put up an in-running bet and after thinking about it, the line would have been way off with Toms having a 3 stroke lead. Just thought I was getting a bargain and with some of the bets I am holding in this tournament I need all the help I can get lol. Good luck and thanks for the support in the football contest.
 

phar lap

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The Lucky Country
Results from Round 3

1. One unit on Palmer to beat Hamilton at cost of 1.5 points

Win by 1 stroke. + 11.5 units

2. One unit on Geiberger over Ames at premium of 2 points

Loss by 4 strokes. -20 units

3. One unit on Bryant over Byrd at premium of 2 points.

Win by 2 strokes. +18 units

Overall profit on day of 9.5 units

YTD 4-3 +6.24 units
 
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phar lap

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The Lucky Country
Round 4 18 holes Spread Bets

Round 4 18 holes Spread Bets

All at SportingIndex

1. Johnson/ Flesch 0 - 3

Buy 1 unit at 3 to be with Johnson.


2. Toms/ Campbell 1 - 4

Buy 1 unit at 4 to be with Toms


3. Sindelar/ Bryant 1 - 4

Sell 1 unit at 1 to be with Bryant


4. Funk / Stolz 2 - 5

Buy 1 unit at 5 to be with Funk.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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a few props @ Hollywood 4th rd
GIR's-- Scott under 14.5 +100
Birdies are better both selections - 1/2 stroke
Scott over Toms +100
Cink over Kaye +110

Note Winds have already turned south and course will play entirely diff today if the rain does not suspend till tomorrow. You can look back over last years tourney and compare 3rd rd to 4th and see the diff with wind change--an added note is Scott had best 4th rd last year in these Kona winds with 5 under.
Lots of props on GIR at 15.5 (would have to hit 88%)as over and under which look VERY tempting if not for the odds and chance of suspension till tomorrow--and no go on parlays:(
 

sports student

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4th round

Ames +125 over Pampling/Slocum (5 dimes)

since Ames started out 4 over par after 3 holes on his 2nd round, he has played 12 under in last 33 holes. Ending up 7th on tour last year in 4th round avg. Remember him playing many great rounds for me last year, going to stay with him here.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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will add under 15.5 Girs on
Els -165
Woods -165
Singh -155

Rain project in am tomorrow also and hoping with draining on these hills hoping they won't have LC@P if continued tomorrow--even in best conditions hitting every green but 3 not easy--and should hit 2 out of 3 which would produce profit.
 

Trampled Underfoot

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Singh to win -112 2 units @ WSEX

How can Singh only be -112 when he continues to close out 54 hole leads? He has closed out 10 in a row I believe. Would love to wager more but trying to have a little restraint this year. :)
 

phar lap

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The Lucky Country
Round 4 18 hole spread bets - Results

Round 4 18 hole spread bets - Results

1. Buying Johnson/ Flesch at 3 for 1 unit to be with Johnson.

Win by 2 strokes. Profit of 13 units.

2. Buying Toms/ Campbell at 4 for 1 unit to be with Toms

Win by 7 strokes. Profit of 27 units.

3. Selling Sindelar/Bryant at 1 for 1 unit to be with Bryant.

Win by 5 strokes. Profit of 26 units.

4. Buying Funk/Stolz at 5 for 1 unit to be with Funk.

Lost by 5 strokes. Loss of 30 units.

Total Profit for the 4th round of 36 units.

YTD 7-4 + 42.24


(Obviously one unit in spread betting is not equivalent to one unit in fixed odds betting....probably about 1/10th the size would be appropriate)
 
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