Michelob Light Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Lorena Ochoa to win 40/1 e.w. @ William Hill and Paddy Power
Very surprised to see such high odds for the rookie; SkyBet offer half this price. She had a very poor draw last week - last group in the 1st round in a three-round event and still finished in the top-20. It was the eighth time in her last nine events that she has finished in the top-20 and that includes a top-3 in this year's major to date. With the course being used for the first time, she is at less of a disadvantage of being a rookie and will surely win several times this year.

Michele Redman to finish in the top-four 12.5/1 @ Centrebet
Siding with players to be placed for the remaining selections with such a strong field. Redman has has been able to reproduce her impressive form from the second half of 2002 with top-20 finishes in three of her last five starts and in one of her 'failures' (she finished 21st in the Nabisco Championship), she had been 4th at the cut. Last week her scores worsened in each round and after failing to be in contention after the 1st day, there is nothing alarming about that. Hopefully, she will be fresher from coasting over the weekend.

Beth Daniel to finish in the top-four 16.5/1 @ Centrebet
Daniel retains her place in the selections after playing so well for 36 holes last week and is now at much bigger odds than last week's 9/1 for a top-5 place. With all four starts this year resulting in top-15 finishes, there is every reason to expect Daniel to be in contention at some stage this week and it is certainly more likely than Centrebet think!

 

[Clive]

Will echo Ochoa...40/1 excellent price.

Also gone for Hee Won Han 40/1 Power...expecting accuracy to be a key requirement this week..there's lots of trees and water, always suited accurate players when PGA used it...also rough is at 5 inches apparently

Cristie Kerr back in the staking plan at 50/1...think this will suit.

If length isn't an issue then couldn't put anybody off My Hun Kim, and also have had tiny bets on big outsiders Heather Bowie 125/1 and one of my old favs Tina Barrett at 250/1, both Centrebet.

 

[scrub]

There is hardly any water in play this week for the ladies, not alot of water on the course. i caddies there 8 times on the mens tour when they played there.ifyou hit in the water there on that course you hit a bad bad shot even on 18 but the ladies should be far enough so it should just be a shot to the right

 

[Clive]

Thanks Scrub...good info..how about the course generally?? Rough supposed to be quite long, apparently.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Rosie Jones to beat Sophie Gustafson -118 @ Expekt
If this is a course where accuracy will be rewarded, then Jones merits the call here. She ranks 11th in driving accuracy this year (78%) against 128th for Gustafson (63%) and coming into this event in comparable form, this looks to be another solid top-20 finish for Jones.

Mi-Hyun Kim to beat Hee-Won Han +100 @ Five Dimes
Will gladly take these odds on Kim. She has finished outside the top-20 just once this season (three of six starts for Han) and is another who should excel on a course where length is not paramount. She has beaten Han in the last two common events and should continue that run.

Karrie Webb to beat Hee-Won Han -154 @ Expekt [3 units]
Really looking for a big week from Webb this week. She has been blighted by one bad round in each of her last four tournaments and it may be that the off-season weight training and swing adjustments have taken a little longer to bed in than expected, but this is the type of course that should suit her and she has shown for all but one round each week that she is approaching he best golf. Han cannot compete at that level and this would be down to Webb to lose.

Karrie Webb to beat Lorena Ochoa -125 @ Centrebet
Partly a hedge play against the outright play on Ochoa, but as above I am expecting a very high finish from the Australian this week. If staying on the fairway is going to be very important, then the course should suit Webb far more and Ochoa is more likely to completely disappear off the leaderboard if she struggles.


1st round plays (1.5 units):

Rosie Jones to beat Beth Daniel -112 @ Five Dimes
Catriona Matthew to beat Juli Inkster -118 @ Five Dimes

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

all to place @ 5dimes
Michelob Light Open - Top 5 - Beth Daniel 10/1 $20.00 $200.00
Michelob Light Open - Top 5 - Catriona Mathew 11/1 $20.00 $220.00
Michelob Light Open - Top 5 - Cristie Kerr 8/1 $20.00 $160.00
Michelob Light Open - Top 5 - Grace Park 11/1 $20.00 $220.00

Collectively they have 5 top 5's and 15 top 15's. With 8/1 being worst odds "if" you get 1 to the house every other week your in the black.

 

[steved]

some news on the aforementioned Ochoa

http://www.dailypress.com/sports/dp-97778sy0apr30,0,3220114.story?coll=dp-sports-local

 

[Clive]

Stan, thought I might go with Webb this week until I watched the highlights from the weekend on Tuesday. She was really struggling with virtually all aspects of her game during Sunday's round...Evens at the mo, so she must have recovered a little, buthopefully Lorena's off into the sunset!!

 

[Clive]

DTB..you will be amzed to know that Corinne Dibnah is tied for 2nd after the first round of the Tenerife Ladies Open! Much better than the 80 she shot when you backed her!!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I wish her well Clive.Was reading your reports on the tourney but couldn't find an out with place wagers.
I wish they would televise the bush here more. I like to watch them swing. Was reading article in golf magizine about all the Koreans in lpga and only, for practical purposes one man,Choi.
According to them the reason was obvious in that the male figure there is not accustomed to traveling and leaving family behind and can not afford to bring them with him. Got to thinking about that and you would be the one to know,but I believe all korean women on tour are single. Is that correct?

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Do I root for Ochoa for the last three rounds?

I followed Stanley and placed a 1 unit outright wager for her @35-1 at 5Dimes. All day long I thought I should put a few more units on her....just when I was set to put another 4 or 5 units on the outright win I try to login to 5Dimes but couldnt get in at all last night.

So if she wins should I be happy or upset??? :shrug:

 

[Stanley]

I've had problems with 5Dimes at times, very frustrating! Still prefer my outright selections to be one shot out of the lead in the early stages though

1st round update: 0-2-0; -3.45 units

Jones/Daniel LOST by 2
Matthew/Inkster LOST by 1

2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Cristie Kerr to beat Lorena Ochoa +115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Natalie Gulbis to beat Suzann Pettersen +103 @ Five Dimes
Laura Davies to beat Pat Hurst -125 @ Five Dimes
Akiko Fukushima to beat Becky Morgan -118 @ Five Dimes

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 3-1-0; +4.95 units

Kerr/Ochoa WON by 1
Gulbis/Pettersen LOST by 2
Davies/Hurst WON by 3
Fukushima/Morgan WON by 5

Mid-point update:

Jones/Gustafson Trails by 1
Kim/Han Leads by 1
Webb/Han Trails by 2
Webb/Ochoa Trails by 6

Ochoa 1st
Redman 35th
Daniel 27th

Good position at the cut with Ochoa in the lead and yet to drop a shot in the tournament, while the matchups are close. Could be a long weekend!

No 3rd round plays.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Well mates appears we got the whole leader board covered with Park,Kerr,Han and Ochoa. Will get to watch this final rd live so if if it gets exciting at the nutcutting(oops wrong tour) I'll try to do play by play live on last holes or overtime if you like.
If ya all promise to pull for Park finishing no lower than 5th I will pull for the others to win so we can inflict some serious damage on the man. Would love to see em have to fork out some of those 40+ to win tickets ya all got.

 

[Stanley]

Will do, DTB

4th round play (1.5 units):

Danielle Ammaccapane to beat Donna Andrews -115 @ Five Dimes

 

[Clive]

Surely one of us must win!!

Grace was originally top of my list this week, but when I read up on course thought that she might struggle with accuracy, doesn't look that way!!

Should be a good night, let's hope Annika and SeRi stay out of it.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

From reviewing bets looks like Ochoa 1st
and Kerr-Park-Han-and Daniels in any order would be optimum results

Watched some of it yesterday Clive and your analogy was correct. Both her and Kerr were getting up and down from everywhere. Park did miss several short putts but made some gobblers.
Course played 6300 yards yesterday.They asked Anikka about playing on PGA style course in interview. She said is was not that tough. I wished they asked her how it would be with fast greens tough pins and 600 more yards. She was was 205 out on par 5 playing about 470 and change and hit 5 wood on front edge.
However in all honesty despite not much wind the air was very humid and cool and ball was not traveling far. Should benefit her ,park and some of the longer hitters if same today.Heard stat that I was not aware of yesterday on Park. Announcer sais she lead LPGA in birdies last year and is 2nd this year.

 

[Clive]

All to play for...any news DTB?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Ochoha Home at -8 Park and Kerr have tap in remaining on 17 both for par.

 

[Clive]

Park 1 up going down the last then?