MLB Thoughts and Picks

[BBD]

Gonna try running picks in one thread for a bit, along with my thoughts behind them. Feel free to jump in and explain why its wrong/flaws in logic etc. Intent is to keep a log of why I am making picks and what should/should not be considered. I tend to lean heavily on previous results, if you have something additional to add, please do.



YTD:

Straight 9-6 +3.72 units
Parlay 1-6 -1.63 units
Overall 10-12 +2.09 units


Pirates/Dodgers: Liriano is 5-0 in his career starts against LA. Pitt is 2-0 vs Kazmir scoring 5-18 runs for the team in both games, but the most recent was 2008. If it was closer I may lean on the Team Total over but gonna stick just with the ML.

PIRATES -117

 

[BBD]

Mets/Nats: Syndergaard is 2-2 vs the Nats, while Ross is 0-2 vs the Mets. Nats have given up at least 4 runs in each of Ross's last 4 starts, and I feel like the Mets will get at least 3 runs as they have given Syndergaard pretty good run support lately, 4,11,6 and 6 in his last four starts ( His last 5 have all hit the Over). Wouldn't pay Up for this one, but with Syndergaard being a slight favorite I like going with him on the win.

Reds/Cubs
Straily is 2-0 vs the Cubs, upsetting the Cubs earlier this year as a 148 Dog. Worth noting that Straily is signifigantly better at home this year as well, where he is 5-2 including a 6-3 win vs Strasburg. Arietta is a perfect 7-0 on the Road, with all games going over, and the Cubs scoring at least 7 in all of Arrietas road starts. Arrieta is 2-4 vs the Reds, with the most recent performance a 16-0 win in Cincy on 21 April.

Rays/Red Sox
The Rays are 0-2 vs Eduardo Rodriguez, with both games hitting the over. In games where rodriguez starts the sox are 2-3, with both wins coming on the road. Snells starts have resulted in an 0-3 record for the Rays.

Cards/Royals: Cards are 1-0 vs Duffy, but a bit dated as it was in 2010. Royals are 2-5 vs Wainwright, but haven't faced him since June of 2014. Royals are 3-1 with Duffy as home this year, with the last three hitting the over. In those games, the royals scored 4,6,7,and 4 runs. The cards are 10-5 when wainwright starts, and that moves to 6-2 on the road.

Phillies/Dbacks
Phillies lost to Robbie Ray 2-10 at home ten days ago, and in the last 4 road games velasquez has given up 5, 4, 6, and 7 runs. In their last 5 home games against pitches not named Kershaw, the dbacks have put up 4,3,6,5,and 6 runs. Leaning toward a team total here.

Astros/Angels:
Angels are 2-5 at home this year when shoemaker starts, and 2-6 vs McHugh, losing 5 straight since they last beat him in July 2014

Athletics/Giants
Giants are 4-1 with Samardzija at home this year, and Mengden is 0-3. Steep price on the Giants, probably gonna look for a parlay here.


METS -119
CUBS Team total over 5 -115
RED SOX +100
GIANTS-166
ASTROS +104
DIAMONDBACKS Team total over 4.5 -105
CARDS Team total over 4 -110

Parlays:
CUBS ML and Over 8 1 to win 1.55
GIANTS ML/ASTROS ML/RED SOX ML/DBACKS TEAM OVER 4.5/CUBS OVER 8/CUBS ML/METS ML .1 unit to win 5.9 unit

 

[BBD]

YTD:
Straight 11-12 -1.41 Unit
Parlay 2-7 +0.82 Unit
Total 13-19 -0.59 Unit


Phillies/Dbacks
Phillies are 2-6 vs greinke, and have lost the last 6, Dbacks 1-0 vs Eickhoff. In all of Greinkes last six starts vs Phillies, he has won by at least 2.

Twins/White Sox
Jose quinatanas results vs the twins are all over, 8-7 su and 7-8 ou. Mostly holding them to under 3 Runs wtih an occasional flare of 8 or 16 run games from the Twins. The white sox are 0-4 vs gibson at home, being outscored 9-38 in those games. Like the idea of parlaying the Dbacks ML wtih the Twins team over 3.5

Rockies/Blue Jays
Rockies are 1-5 all time vs JA Happ, and 1-5 ou. In those six games, they have score 3, 3, 4, 3, 5 and 0 runs. Current line for this team total is 5.5

Astors/Angels
Astros are 2-7 vs Lincicum, although havent played him in four years so may be irrelevant. Feldman is 11-7 vs the Astros but that moves to 8-2 at home. Probably place a unit on the Angels here, but won't use it in any parlay.


Parlay: Diamondbacks -200/Twins over 3.5 1 to win 2

Straight:

Diamondbacks -1.5 +105
Twins +168
Twins over 3.5 +100
Rockies under 5.5 -105
Angles +115

 

[BBD]

Angels +115

 

[BBD]

YTD:
Straight 13-15 -1.78 Units
Parlay 2-8 -0.18 Units
Total 15-23 -1.96 Units

Twins/White Sox
Ricky Nolasco is 4-0 vs the White Sox on the road, while Shields is 3-4 vs the twins at home. The Sox have lost 6 of Shields last 7 starts, giving up 8,13,9,11 and 16 runs in the last 5. Nolasco's games this year are 13-2 for hitting the over, as our Shileds last 5.

Dodgers/Brewers
Only thing notable here is that Junior Guerra is 8-2 this year, but 3-2 at home, dropping his last two home games. But since then he has beaten the dodgers on the road. Not feeling super confident on the Brewers, but maybe confident enough if they stay a dog in this one.

Cards/Royals
Volquez is 9-7 on the year, but just 2-4 while on the road. He is 8-9 vs the cards, but just 3- 6 when in St Louis. Not sure thats enough to pay the -160 for the cards, but def enough to stay away from the +150 on the Royals.

I dont know why, but I can't get off the Mets tonight. They are 2-1, winning the last two against scherzer in washington. The +220 is too tempting.

METS +235
BREWERS +103
TWINS-108
TWINS OVER 9
TWINS TEAM OVER 4.5 -115

 

[BBD]

YTD:
Straight 16-17 -0.83
Parlay 2-8 -0.18
Total 18-25 -1.01

Reds/Nats
The Nationals have lost the last 7 that Gio has started, and are 1-2 when he starts at home vs the Reds. The reds have lost 11 of Finnegans last 13 starts. These two pitchers faced off at the beggining of the month with Finnegan winning 7-2. Not confident either way, but +180 is enough to probably entice me to play the Reds.

Indians/Blue Jays
The Indians are 2-4 vs RA Dickey, with one push on the over under, 1 over, and 4 unders. Dickey is 5-11 on the year, but that falls to 0-7 at home! And only one of these home games has been within a run. After going heavy on the Twins last night, and needing a top 9 miracle to stay in the green on the night, I resolved not to bet more than one way on any team. Dickeys' stats make me want the RL and ML for the tribe. Should probably look at the other side of this one first though.....Clevland is 7-2 in carrasco's starts this year, although he is only 3-2 on the road. Also on the road, he is 1-4 for over/under. The blue jays are 1-2 vs carrasco, with 2-1 going for the O/U. Going to be a strong lean for the Tribe -1.5 in this one. May through the ML in on a parlay if there are some other games with some comfort later in the lineup card.

Marlins/Braves
Marlins are 0-1 vs Foltynewics, who has posted a 1-4 record this year, and is winless at home. The braves are 2-1 vs Chen, beating him twice this year and losing to him once in 2012. This years wins were 6-3 and 7-2. Chen is 3-3 on the road this year, and with the braves as a +150 dog, thats probably the way I will go on this one.

Tigers/Rays
The tigers are 1-2 vs Odorizzi and 1-2 ou in those matchups. Odorizzi 9-7 on the year, but only 3-5 at home. 6-9 OU on the year, but 2-6 at home. The rays are 2-1 vs Zimmerman, with 2-1 OU. Zimmermann is 9-5 on the year, with 7-6 for the OU. On the road he is 4-2, with OU falling to 2-4. Like the Under in this one, and with the Rays at -111 will likely lean that way as well. Not completely sure about playing the Rays ML.

Cardinals Royals
I just want this series to end. Cards are 5-3 vs young, 2-5 OU. 3-2 at home, 1-3-1 OU. Young is 0-5 on the road, 2-2-1 OU. Leake is 7-8 on the season, 2-4 at home with 4-1-1 OU. I like the cards to win, punishing a Pitcher that has struggled on the road. If the cards team total was at 4 I would love it, but not at 4.5.

Giants/Athletics
No info on Overton other than he is 1-0 this year. Bumgarner has dropped his last two after a crazy win streak, and he is being offered at -140 tonight. He is 5-2 on the road, and this is the cheapest he has been as a favorite (he was a dog to kershaw and syndergaard, and split that 1-1). I like the Giants here, other than a rough go against Jeff Locke where he held the pirates to 1 run, and losing to Kershaw, Bumgarner has been dominant on the road this year.

Orioles/Mariners. Orioles are 2-1 SU vs walker, and tillman and walker have split the last two meetings they had. Walker is 5-9 this year, 4-4 at home. The orioles are 14-2 when Tillman has started this year, which drops to 3-2 on the road. Why even bother starting this guy on the road? Sit him in the rotation and run him at home, damn (thats a joke). Mariners are 1-8 vs Tillman. Easy decision, hopefully just as easy result, but taking Orioles here. Likely to parlay with the Indians ML.

REDS +185
BRAVES +152
RAYS Under 8 -105
INDIANS -1.5 +130
ORIOLES +103
GIANTS -146

Parlays:
INDIANS ML/ ORIOLES ML 1 to win 2.72

REDSML/BRAVES ML/INDIANS ML/RAYS UNDER 8/ORIOLES ML/GIANTS ML .1 TO WIN 8.69

 

[BBD]

YTD
Straight 19-20 -0.06 Units
Parlay 2-10 -2.28 Units
Total 21-30 -2.34 Units

Orioles/Mariners
Jiminez is 1-5 on the Road this year, with a 4/2 OU Split. At home Iwakuma is 6-1 on the OU Split and when playing in Seattle Jimenez is 5-1 on the OU split. Hoping for lots of runs in this one.

ORIOLES over 8.5 -120

 

[BBD]

YTD
Straight 20-20 0.94 Units
Parlay 2-10 -2.28 Units
Total 21-30 -1.34 Units

Nats/Brewers
Brewers are 3-1 vs Scherzer, including a 5-3 win this year. Those games are 1-3 for the OU. Scherzer is 4-2 at home, 10-7 on the year, Junior Guerra is 9-2 on the year and 5-0 on the road. Enough here for me to jump on the Brewers with the nice payout.

BREWERS +230

Rest of the days picks to follow

 

[BBD]

ANGELS/RAYS
The Angels are 0-4 vs Matt Moore, but no matchups in the last three years. The Rays are 1-0 vs Tropeano, with that win coming in May of this year. Moore is 6-10 on the season, 6-4 at Home. Tropeano is 5-5, 3-2 on the Road. At first glance I liked the Rays, but don't think I like them enough to pick em.

Rangers/Red Sox
Rangers are 5-4 vs Porcello, 3-0 against him on the road, but all of those games came in Detroit. OU matches 5-4 3-0 split. The red sox are 2-0 vs Martinez, both wins in Texas. Martinez has given up 9,8, and 3 runs in his three starts this year, only beating the Cardinals. Porcello is 11-5 on the year, and has gotten 8,8,6,4,5,7,9 runs in his last 7 starts. Red sox to win is laying a lot at -195, I like the team total over 6 a lot better.

Athletics/Twins
The Athletics are 0-3 vs Nolasco, with the most recent matchup in May of last year. The only matchup for the twins against graveman was may of this year, and they lost 2-3. Graveman is 6-9 on the year, 4-5 on the road, and 6-3 OU on the road. Nolasco is 6-10 on the year, wtih a 14-2 OU! He is 3-5 at home, wtih a 7-1 OU. I like the A's team total over 4.5, but leaning towards taking the Total over 9.5

Mariners/Astros
Wade Miley is 9-5 on the year, 9-3-2 on OU, but on the road he moves to 6-1 and 4-1-2 on OU. He picked up a win in Houston this year already, 6-3 back in May. McCullers is 5-3 this year, wtih a 2-6 OU, 3-2 wtih 0-5 OU at home. Gonna bank on Mileys road record to make+160 on the Mariners in this one.

Cards/Pirates
The cardinals are 4-7 vs Niese, 1-2 at Home. Also at home, 0-3 on OU vs Niese. The Pirates are 3-4 vs Martinez, 2-2 on the road (4-0 RL) with 2-1-1 OU. Martinez is 7-8 this year, just 3-6 at Home with a 5-3-1 Home OU. Niese is 8-8, 4-4 on the road, 6-2 RL on the road. He has dropped 4 of his last 5 road games. +185 on the Buccos is tempting. Nothing to be confident about, but enough to think the high payout may be worth the risk.

Cubs/Reds
Cody reed is 0-3 on the year, and was beat bad by the cubs 9-2 in his last outing. He is 3-0 on the OU. Hendricks is 8-7, 5-2 at Home. Looking at the scores, All but one home win for Hendricks is over the RL, and all but one of Reeds losses is by more than 2. Cubs -1.5 is the play I like best here. (ML in a parlay)

Rockies/Giants
Rockies are 5-4 vs Peavy on the road, 7-0 on the RL and 2-7 OU. Peavy is 5-3 at Home this year, 3-5 on the RL and 5-3 OU. Anderson is 1-3 on the Year, wtih an 0-4 RL and 1-3 OU.

Braves/Phillies
Braves are 2-1 vs Eickhoff, 0-3 OU. Cruz is 0-1 this year, Eickhoff is 7-9, 4-11-1 on OU. He is 4-4 at Home, 1-6 on the OU. Taking the Under here.

Marlins/Mets
Marlins are 6-2 vs Matt Harvey, 2-1 in NY. The mets are 9-6 vs Koehler, 4-3 in NY. Koehler is 6-10 on the year, 4-5 on the road. Harvey is 5-11 this year, 2-4 at home. Marlins are nice here at +164


Indians/Tigers
Not a lot to get on trend wise this game. One nice spot is in Salazars home starts this year, the indians put up 12,6,11,13,7 and 1 run (1 was the first start back in april). Team total sits at 4.5, definetly like that. (Parlay as well)

Padres/Dbacks
Perdomo is 2-1 on OU on the road, 3-1-1 on the year. Bradley is 7-2 OU on the year, 4-0 at home. DBACKS over is a parlay play.

 

[BBD]

RED SOX TEAM TOTAL OVER 6 -135
MARINERS +140
TWINS OVER 9.5 -125
PIRATES +185
CUBS -1.5 +100
MARLINS +164

PARLAY:
CUBS ML/DBACKS OVER 9.5/INDAINS TEAM TOTAL OVER 4.5 .5 UNIT TO WIN 2.43

 

[theGibber1]

RED SOX TEAM TOTAL OVER 6 -135
MARINERS +140
TWINS OVER 9.5 -125
PIRATES +185
CUBS -1.5 +100
MARLINS +164

PARLAY:
CUBS ML/DBACKS OVER 9.5/INDAINS TEAM TOTAL OVER 4.5 .5 UNIT TO WIN 2.43

great info in here


Thanks!

 

[BBD]

great info in here


Thanks!

Much appreciated,

Adding:

Indians over 4.5 -105
Diamondbacks over 9.5 -105

 

[BBD]

Yesterday:
Straight 6-3 +4.9
Parlay 1-0 +2.43
Total 7-3 + 7.33

YTD
Straight 26-23 +5.84 Units
Parlay 3-10 +0.15 Units
Total 29-33 +5.99 Units






Reds/Cubs
Reds are 6-5 vs Lackey, 1-4 on the road, and have scored 2 or less in the last 4 games. The cubs are 2-0 vs finnegan, with both games going over. Lackey is 4-3 at home this year, giving up 3 or less in his last four starts. Finnegan 4-13 on the year, 2-7 on the road, but getting decent run support with 4,0,3,and 4 runs in the last 4. Like the cubs to win, but never really laying over -200 for any team. Reds under 3 would seem like an option, but probably will just lay off here (no team totals on 5dimes yet).

Braves/Phillies
Phillies 0-1 vs Folty, who is 1-4 this year. Eflin is 1-3 on the year. Nothing here, but one interesting note.....until this game neither of these pitchers has been a favorite YTD.

Brewers/Nats
The brewers are 2-4 vs Gio, with 5-1 OU. Nats 0-1 vs Davies, 1-0 OU. Gio is 6-10 YTD, 8-7-1 OU. At home, all splits go to 4-4. Davies is 7-7 on the year, 9-4-1 OU, 1-3 on the road and 3-1 OU on the road. Davies last four games he gave up 8,3,3,3 and Gio 4,6,6,4. Would like an over of 8, but probably won't play at 8.5

Marlins/Mets
Marlins are 2-0 vs Mats, 1-1 OU, and won both as the Dog. Matz is 9-5 on the year, 4-3 at home with a 4-3 OU. Chen is 9-8 on the year, 10-6-1 OU. He is 3-4 on the road with a 5-2 OU. Not sure why, but I am not liking any of todays games so far. If Chen were better on the road, Matz a little worse at home, I could see taking the Marlins as a dog again vs a pitcher they are 2-0 against. But just not enough there to jump on.

Dbacks/Padres
Padres are 0-1 vs Godley, Diamondbacks 0-2 vs Friedrich, losing 3-10 in a matchup in may. Friedrich is 5-4 this year, wtih a 7-2 OU mark. Those numbers both move to 2-2 on the road. Godley is 1-0 this year, 0-1 OU. The Diamondbacks have scored 3,0 runs in the two matchups against Friedrich, who has given up 4,2,3,1 in his starts this year. If the book would be so kind as to set the DBACKS team total at 4.5 I would probably entertain the under.

Rockies/Giants
The rockies are 8-16 vs Bumgarner, 11/11 OU. In san fran that moves to 2-9, 4/6. The Giants are 5-4 vs Chatwood, 4/4/1 OU. At home those both move to 2-2, with no matchup since 2014. Bumgarner is 12-5 this year with 8/9OU, 6-3 with 3/6 at home. Chatwood is 9-5 with 2/11 OU this season, 6-1 with a 1/5 OU on the road. He has been pretty solid on the road, with the exceptio of last game giving up 9 vs the marlines, the previous 6 go 1,1,0,0,0,3 runs allowed. Meanwhile, Bumgarner at home has given up 3,2,1,0,4,4,4,2,3. I like the SF Team total under 3.5, and at a +200 I will like some of the rockies as well.

Royals/Blue Jays
Royals are 3-4 vs RA Dickey, 3/4 OU. When these two met last year, Royals won 14-2. The blue jays are 1-4 vs Chris Young, but thats 1-2 in the last three years. These games go 3/0/2 on the OU. Young is 5-7 this year, 4/7/1 OU, but 1-5 on the road, with a 2/3 OU. Dickey is 5-12 with a 4/10 OU, moving to 0-8 at home with a 3-4-1 OU. Royals currently sit at +160, and I will take it against a team who hasn't won a game at home yet when Dickey takes the mound.

Angels/Rays
Angels 2-1 vs Odorizzi, with 1/2 OU. Rays are 1-0 vs Lincicum, 0/1 OU. Lincecum is 1-2 this year, 1/2 OU, and Odorizzi is 9-8 with 7/9/1 OU, and both drop to 3/6 at home. In his last 6 home starts, odorizzi has given up 10,5,7,2,6,5 runs. Could be a case made for the angels team over, but I dont think I will take it.

Rangers/Red Sox
Rangers are 8-8 vs price, with a 9/7 OU. That move to 6-3 4/5 on the road. Red Sox are 1-4 vs Griffin, 3/2 OU. The only bright side in that is Griffins only trip to Boston was loss. Griffin is 6-2 this year, with a 5/3 OU mark, that moves to 3-2 2/3 on the road. Price is 10-7 this year, 9/7 OU, and both move to 5-4 at home. I want to take Griffin here, but his road numbers both this year and vs boston blow compared to what he does in his home park.

Mariners/Astros
Mariners are 6-4 vs Kuechel, 6/4 ou. Both move to 3-2 on the road. Astros are 4-6 vs Walker, 7/2/1 OU. Those go to 2-4, 4/1 at home. Walker is 6-9 this year, 4/9/2 OU, but falls to 1-5 on the road, 2/3/1 OU. Keuchel is 7-10 this year, 9/7/1 falls to 2-4 at home, 2/3/1. Keuchels last 5 starts allowed 4,4,4,5,4 runs, and walker has picked up 5,1,7,5,and 3 runs in support, so a Mariners team total over 4 may not be a bad play. Neither pitcher has stellar numbers, so if forced to take a side I would take the dog, but Im not being forced, so I wont take a side.

Athletics/Twins
Athletics 1-0 vs Milone, 1/0 OU. Twins 0-1 vs Manaea 0/1 OU. Manaea is 5-5 this year, 4-5-1 OU, 0-2 on the road, 1/0/1 OU. Milone 2-4 on the year, 3/2/1 OU, but 2-0 at home, 1/1 OU. I'll take the 2-0 at home pitcher over the 0-2 road pitcher in this one, Twins it is.

Yankees/White Sox
Yankees 1-1 vs Rodon, 1/1 OU. Sox are 0-2 vs tanaka, 2/0 OU. Tanaka is 11-5 this year, 5/10 OU, moves to 4-3 on the road, 1/6 OU. Rodon is 5-10 on the year, 6/9 OU, 4-4 at home wtih a 2-6 OU. Going to lean on the under in this one.

Orioles/Dodgers
Tillman is 14-3 on the year, and is a dog in this game. He is 4-2 as a dog this year, and those games go 1/4/1 on the OU. On the road he is 3-3, wtih a 2-3-1 OU. Not that he has pitched bad, but only gotten more than three runs of support in one game on the road this year. Maeda is 9-7 this year, 7/8/1 on ou. At home he is 3-5, 3/5 OU. Dodgers are just as bad giving him run support as the orioles are with tillman, going over 3 just twice in 8 games. Tempting to play Tillman, and I may, but definately rolling the under in this one.

Pirates/Cards
Pirates 14-12 vs Leake, 12/13 OU. 4-7 in St Louis, 6/4/1 OU. Taillion is 3-2 this year, 4/1 on the OU, both at 2-1 on the road. Leake is 7-9 on the year, 10/5/1 OU, falling to 2-5 at home, 4/2/1 OU. Also, Pirates are 3-1 in STL this year, and have been the dog in every game.

Tigers/Indians
Tribe is 7-5 vs sanchez, 5/7 OU, 2-3 at home, 1/4 OU. Tigers are 7-5 vs Carrasoc, 10/2 OU. That goes to 3-2 in cleveland, 4/1 OU. Carrasco is 8-2 this year, 3/7 OU, 4-0 a home wtih 2/2/ OU. Sanchez is 3-9 on the year, 10/2 OU, 1-5 on the road wtih 5/1 OU. The OU cancel each other out, but clear bath that Sanchez is bad, and really bad on the road (only road iwn back on april 6th) and carrasco has been aweosme at home. Lay the juice and take the tribe.


FOR CLARIFICATION: When I give pitcher records, it is whether the team won or lost that game, not the pitchers actual record. I'm not concerned with how the pitcher actually did, but the teams result and if there is a heavy pattern.


Summary (Not picks, just a sum up of what I like from the notes above):
Diamondbacks under 4.5 or more depending on the line
SF Team total under 3.5, but even more....
Rockies +200
Royals +160....Because Dickey is yet to win at home
Mariners Team total over 4
Twins +105
Yankees Under 8.5
Orioles Under 7.5
Pirates ML
Indians ML

 

[BBD]

ROYALS +148
MARINERS TT OVER 3.5 +105
TWINS -102
YANKEES UNDER 8.5 -125
DIAMONDBACKS UNDER 4.5 +105
ROCKIES +210
ORIOLES UNDER 7.5 -115
GIANTS TT UNDER 4 -120

Back with more when 5Dimes releases the Twins and Pirates lines.

 

[BBD]

Indians -195
Pirates +144


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[BBD]

6-4 +3.29 yesterday,

YTD
Straight 32-27 +9.13
Parlay 3-10 +0.15
Total 35-37 +9.28

No research today, at a training all day and no computer to look stuff up on. GL everyone

 

[BBD]

Got back a lot earlier than planned, so able to play the evening slate

Rangers/Red Sox
Rangers are 2-0 vs Wright, beating him 10-3 a few weeks ago. OU is 2/0 in those games. The Red sox are 2-2 vs Perez, 2/2 OU. Wright is 9-7 on the year, 6/8 OU 5-3 at home with a 5/3 OU. Perez is 10-7 this year with 7/10 OU, both at 4-4 on the road. The Rangers have won Perez's last 8 starts, and idon't see them as an advantage in this one, but I do like the bonus of +170

Royals/Blue Jays
Royals are 0-2 vs Stroman, wtih a 2/0 OU. The Blue Jays have put up 12 and 11 runs in those two games. Blue Jays are 1-0 vs kennedy, 0/1 OU. Kennedy is 9-7 on the year wtih a 5/10/1 OU, 4-6 on the road 3/6/1 OU. Stroman is 8-9 on the year, 10/7 OU 4-5 at home, 6/3 OU.

Rays/Angels,
Rays are 7-6 vs Weaver, but 1-5 at Home, wtih a 3/3 OU. The Angels are 2-1 vs Smyly, 2/1 OU. Weaver is 6-10 on the year, 3-4 on the road. Smyly is 6-10 this year, just 2-5 at home. The Rays home record vs Weaver, along wtih Smylys poor home performances this year push me to the Angels at +151

ANGELS +151
RANGERS +170


More in a few.

 

[BBD]

Yankees/White Sox
Yanks 8-6 vs Gonzalez, 2-3 on the road wtih a 1-4 OU. Yankees are 2-1 vs Pineda, with 0/3 OU. Pineda is 8-8 this year, 3-4 on the road with a 4-0-3 O/U . Gonzalez is 5-6 this year, 6/5OU 1-3 at home wtih 2/2. Was liking the under until i saw pineda 4-0-3 on the road. Still could be a play, but most likely I will pass.

Mariners/Astros
Seattle is 1-0 vs Fiers, wtih 1/0 OU. Astros 0-1 vs Leblanc, 0/1 OU. LeBlanc is 2-0 this year, with an 0/2 OU. Fiers is 9-6, 10/5 OU, 7-2 at home wtih a 5/4 OU. I was all about the Mariners in this, riding a hot pitcher with only 2 starts, but LeBlanc hasn't played on the road this year, and Fiers has been solide at home. He gave up a combined 5 runs in the two losses, with no team putting up more than 4 on him at home this year. Seattles team total is at 4, and they haven't put up more than that in 4 games, and once in thier last 8. I'll take the Seattle TT under 4 in this one.

Pirates/Cardinals
As mentioned yesterday, buccos are hot in STL this year, and cashed on that last night. Cards are 5-4 vs Locke, winning 4 of the last 5. At home they are 4-1 with a 3/1 OU. Pirates are 2-2 vs Garcia, 1-1 on the road. Garcia is 9-7 this year, 3-5 at home with a 1/7 OU. Locke is 8-8 on the year with a 12/4 OU, 3-6 on the road wtih a 7/2 OU, the over hitting in his last 6 road performances. Taking the over 8.5 for this game, I like the cards to win it but Garcia's home record vs a hot pirates team is concerning. A hot pirates team combined with Locke being horrible against the Cards in STL, and should be a lot of runs.

Padres/Diamondbacks
Padres are 4-1 vs Miller with a 4/1OU. Both move to 2-0 against him on the road. Rea is 9-6 this year, the Dbacks have never faced him, and he has an 11/4 OU. On the road he is 4-1 with a 3/2 OU. Shelby Miller is 4-9 this year with a 8/4/1 OU, 1-6 at home iwth a 4/2/1 OU. Like the over and will take it, LOVE THE PADRES and will definately take them, and likely will Parlay them as well, possibly with the Over.

Giants/Rockies
Rockies are 3-7 vs Cueto, losing 6 straight. OU is 3/6/1. Cueto has given up 3,1,2,2,3,runs in the last five games to the Rockies, and the team total sits at 3. Like that for a push or win tonight. Giants are 8-16 vs De La Rosa, 9/14 OU. That goes to 5-6 at home, 4/6 OU. De La Rosa is 5-5 this year with a 7/3 OU, both go to 2-3 on the road (Shocking that De La Rosa has hit the over on every start in coors field...) Cueto is 15-2 on the year, 8/8 OU. He is 6-2 at home. Parlay play with the Giants, will run them with the Padres tonight.


MARINERS TT UNDER 4 -110
PIRATES OVER 8.5 -110
PADRES +117
PADRES OVER 9.5 -110
ROCKIES UNDER 3 -120


PARLAY:
PIRATES OVER 8.5/PADRES ML/GIANTS ML .5 TO WIN 2.63

 

[BBD]

MLB Thoughts and Picks

Yesterday
Straight 5-2 +3.28
Parlay 1-0 +2.63

YTD
Straight 37-29 +12.71
Parlay 4-10 +2.78
Total 41-39 +15.49

Pirates/Cards
Pirates are 10-17 vs Wainwright, 16/7/4 OU, 4-11 in STL, 10/3/2/ OU. Wainwright is 5-11 on the year with a 7/9/1 OU, just 3-6 at home with a 4/4/1 OU. Going back to 2005 I cannot find a time where the Pirates swept the cards in STL. They are on a hot streak, and have won 8 of the last ten in STL. I'm going to continue to rid ethe pirates, and lay some on the over here as well.

PIRATES +129

.5 units below
PIRATES/CARDS OVER 8.5 -110
PIRATES TT OVER 4 -105
CARDS TEAM TOTAL OVER 4.5 +100

 

[BBD]

Tigers are 1-2 vs Hutchison, 2/1 OU, Blue Jays are 5-5 vs Verlnader with 7/3 OU, going 2-2 and 3/1 at Home. Verlander is 10/7 this year, 8/9 OU 5/3 on the road with a 3/5 OU. Hutchison is 1/0 this year with 0/1 OU.

Yankees/Indians
Yankees are 3-2 vs Bauer, 3/2 OU, Indians 1-1 and 1/1 vs Nova. Nova is 5-6 this year with 5/5/1 OU, 2-3 with a 1/4 OU on the road. Bauer is 7-5 on the year with a 5/7 OU, 4-2 at home wtih a 3/3 OU.

Nationals/Mets
Nationals are 6-3 vs Colon, with a 3/6 OU, 5-0 in NY wtih a 2/3 OU. Mets are 0-1 vs Giolito. , which was in his only career start. Colon is 10-6 this year, 7-8-1 OU, 5-3 at home with a 2/5/1 OU. I like the Nats strong record vs Colon, will take them at -103

Twins/Rangers
Twins are 1-1 vs Gonzalez, 2/0OU, Rangers 0-1 with 1/0 vs Duffy, who is 5-8 this year with a 8/4/1 OU, 2-4 on the road with a 3/3/ OU. Gonzalez is 1-1 this year, 2/0 OU. Liked the over until I saw it was 11, which is possible but that is a lot of runs. Teams have scored 17 and 6 vs Gonzalez this year, may go with the twins tt over 5.5.

Braves/Rockies
Braves are 6-4 vs Hammel, with a 7/3 OU. That goes to 1-3, 4/0 on the Road. Cubs are 0-2 vs Harrell, with the last game being played in Oct 2012. Harrell is 1-0 this year, Beating Jose Fernandez as a +215 dog 9-1. Braves sit as a +248 dog now. Hammel is 9-7 on the year, 7/7/2 OU, and he is 5-1 at home with a 3/3 OU. Leaning on the Braves here. Hammel has a good home record, but there are signs that Harrell good pull the upset, and the reward is nice. No way I play the Cubs, to include in any Parlays.

Athletics/Astros
Athletics are 8-9 vs Fister, 9/7/1 OU. That falls to 3-6, 6/3 on the road. the astros are 3-2 vs the Athletics, 1/4 OU. Hill is 8-4 this year, 4/7/1 OU, 6-0 on the road, 3/3OU. Fister is 11-5 on the season, 5/10 OU, 5-2 at home with a 3/3/1 OU. I see this as a toss up, and may take the Athletics just for being the dog in what i see as a 50/50 matchup. Also, in his road games, the Athletics have scored a minimum of 5 runs in each, and Fister has surrendered 7 in his last two home outings. Now that I notice that, may go with the Athletics TT over 4 instead.

Mariners/Royals
Mariners are 1-2 vs Duffy, 1/2 OU. Royals are 1-1 1/1 vs Paxton. Paxton is 2-5 onthe year with a 4/3 OU, 1-2, 2/1 on the road. Duffy is 7-3 this year, 5/4 OU, 4-1 3/1/1 at home. Royals -136 in this one

Phillies/Rockies
Phillies are 1-2 vs Bettis, 1/1/1 OU. Morgan is 2-9 this year, 7-4 OU. He is 1-4 on the road, with a 3/2OU, while Bettis is 9-8 this year, 9/7/1, 5-2 at home with a 4/3 OU.

Dodgers/Padres
Dodgers 3-2 vs Pomeranz, 2-3 OU, 2-1 0/3 at home. Padres are 1-4 vs Ryu, 2/3 OU, 0-2 1/1 on the road. Pomeranz is 8-8 this year, 5/11 OU, both go to 3-5 on the road.

NATIONALS-105
BRAVES +248
TWINS TT OVER 5.5 +100
ATHLETICS TT OVER 4 -115
ROYALS -139
DODGERS/PADRES UNDER 7 -115