- Dec 29, 2013
- 342
- 0
- 0
Not sure what my reasoning was for getting on the Pirates yesterday. Other than their win streak, nothing pointed to them winning that game. Fortunately it didn't prevent having another day in the green.
Yesterday
5-5 +1.76 Units
YTD
Straight 42-34 +14.47
Parlay 4-10 +2.78
Total 46-34 +17.25 Units
CUBS/PIRATES
The Pirates are 1-12 vs Arrieta. I should just quit looking at this game now, and put CHI in a parlay. 1-12 vs Arrieta and 4/8 OU. 2-11 On the runline. Cubs are 6-6 vs Liriano, 9-3 on the runline and 5/7 OU. Liriano goes to 3-3 at home, 2/4 OU. Arrieta 5-1 in Pittsburgh, 1/5 OU. Liriano is 7-9 this year with 9/7 OU, dropping to 3-5 at home with 4/4 OU. Arrieta is 13-4 on the year with a 12/4/1 OU, a solid 8-1 on the road with an 8/0/1 OU and 7-2 on the runline. The OU numbers conflict, but I have confidence that Chicago is a solid parlay play, not overly expensive at -160, and worth selling the 1.5 on the runline and getting +100. Also, the Pirates have scored more than three runs in games vs Arrieta once in the 13 matchups, and that was the first time they faced him as a cub back in September of 2013 (ten games ago). Since then they have put up 3 one time, the rest of the matchups 2 or less. Pirates under 3 is a solid play as well
Orioles/Angels
The Orioles are 2-1 vs Shoemaker, 0/3 OU. The angels are 6-1 vs Jimenez, 3/4 OU. On the road they are 3-0 and 1/2 OU. Jimenez is 8-8 this year wtih a 10/6 OU. He is 7-2 at home with 5/4 OU. Shoemaker is 4-12 this year, with a 5/10 OU, 2-6 on the road with a 2/5/1 OU. Despite the Angels success against Jimenez, I think his solid home performance and Shoemakers struggles on the road lead to a Baltimore win. Line is not out yet, not sure how high of favorites Baltimore will be and if its worth jumping on.
Tigers/Blue Jays
Tigers are 4-1 vs Happ, 3/2 OU. The Jays are 1-2 vs Pelfrey with a 2/1 OU. Happ is 12-5 this year, 7-1 at home with a 6/2 OU. Pelfrey is 7-9 on the year, 2-6 on the road with a 2/6 OU. In the team matchups vs pitcher the Tigers seemed like a solid underdog to take, but Pelfrey struggles on the road (although he just beat Chris Archer as a 160 dog last week) and Happs home success is enough to stay away here. Almost like the Blue jays enough for a parlay play, but will stay off because of the Tigers past success on Happ.
Rays/Red Sox
Sox are 9-4 vs Archer with an 8/5 OU, 3-1 on both at home. Rays are 1-1 vs Osullivan, not playing him since 2010. Archer is 5-13 on the year, 8/10 OU, 3-6 on the road with a 6/3 OU. OSullivan is 3-0 this year, 3/0 OU. Red Sox ML and Over are both plays for me, with the ML going on a parlay with the cubs.
Yankees/Indians
Yankees are 2-1 vs Kluber, although both wins are as -180 or greater favorites, and the loss was at even money. Today they are +155. 1/2 OU. Kluber is 8-9 this year, 3-4 at home, wtih a 3/4 OU. Green is 1-1 on the year, 2/0 OU. Nothing here that gives confidence in Kluber at -165, but nothing to support taking the Yanks as the dog.
Mets/Nats
Going into this game, I love the look of getting Syndergaard at this price point, but the Mets are 3-8 vs Strasburg, 1-6 at home wtih a 4/3 OU. The Nats are 3-2 vs Syndergaard, 1-2 on the road. Syndergaard 11-5 this year, 10/5 OU, 6-3 in both at home. Strasburg is 14-1 onthe year, 13/2 OU, 5-1 on the road with a 4/2 OU. Flipping what I thought coming in, I am taking the Nats in this one, and the over is definately the trend, so will likely get on it as well. One last bit, The over has hit in every Strasburg start since April 19th.
Reds/Marlins
The Reds are 2-1 vs Fernandez, 2-1 OU, but have not beat him since may of 2013. Straily is 8-7 this year with a 10/5 OU, 3-4 on the road with a 5/2 OU. Fernandez is 11-5 this year with a 5/10 OU, 7-2 at home with a 1/7/1 OU. I won't play anything in this game, but will add the Marlins to a parlay as I don't see the Reds having much of a chance here.
Twins/Rangers
Twins are 3-1 vs Hamels, 3/1 OU and 4-0 on the RL, including a 5-4 win in this same pitcher matchup last week. Rangers are 1-3 vs Gibson, 1/3 OU. Gibson is 4-5 on the year, 1-2 on the road, 1/2 OU. Hamels is 12-5 on the year, 6-2 at home with a 5/3 OU. Hamels has been strong at home, but the Rangers are on a 3 game losing streak to Gibson, and at +165 I will roll the dice for a twins win.
Braves/White Sox
Sale is 14-3 on the year with a 10/6/1 OU. That moves to 7-1 4/4 at home. Wisler is 4-12 7/8/1 this year and on the road goes to 2-3 in both areas. Simple enough to just add the White Sox to my parlay here.
Brewers/Cards
Brewers are 1-4 vs Wacha, winning the first game they played against him. 4/1 OU. The Cards are 5-1 vs Nelson, with a 5/1 OU mark. Those numbers go to 3-1 4/0 on the road. Nelson is 7-10 on the year with a 6/9/1 OU mark, 4-5 at home with a 2/6/1 OU. Wacha is 9-8 this year with a 13/4 OU mark, 4-4 on the road with a 7/1 OU mark. I'll take the cards ML and the over here, and likely had the ML to a parlay (like the same with the over, but don't like having more than one bet per game in a parlay).
Athletics/Astros
Athletics are 1-5 vs McHugh, 2/4 OU, 0-4 on the road with a 1-3 OU mark. McHugh is 10-7 this year with a 7/10OU, 6-3 3/6 at home. Mengden 1-4 2/3 this year, 1-1 in both on the road. Under is an attractive bet in this game, ML on Astros good be in a parlay but likely will hold back there.
Phillies/Rockies
Rockies are 0-1 vs Velasquez, who is 9-5 this year with a 7/6/1 OU, 4-3 on the road. Gray is 6-8 this year, 4-2 at home with a 4/1/1 OU.
Mariners/Royals
Mariners are 3/2 vs Ventura with a 1/4 OU. Royals are 0-4 vs Iwakuma, 2/2 OU. Iwakuma is 10-7 on the year with an 11/6 OU, 5-4 on the road iwth a 4/5 OU. Ventura is 9-7 on the year, 6-1 at home. Some solid arguements for both sides of this game.
Padres/Dodgers
Padres are 1-3 vs Kazmir, wtih a 3/1 OU, while the Dodgers are 8-3 vs Cashner with a 2/8/1 OU. Cashner is 6-6 on the year, 2-3 on the road with a 3/1/1 OU, Kazmir 9-8 on the year, 9/7/1 OU, 5-4 at home iwth a 3/5/1 OU. I think the Dodgers are overpriced here, but nothing to give enough confidence in playing the Padres.
Diamondbacks/Giants
Dbacks are 4-2 vs Samardzija, 4/2 OU 2-0 in both on the road, but that was when he played in Chicago. Giants are 6-7 vs Corbin, 6/7 OU, both 3-2 at home. Corbin is 7-10 on the year, 11/6 OU, on the road he is 6/3 in both. Samardzija is 10-7 8/8 this year, 4-2 at home with a 5/1 OU rate. Like the over in this one.
CUBS-1.5 -160
PIRATES TT UNDER 3 +120
ORIOLES -114
NATIONALS +107
NATIONALS/METS OVER 7 -105
RAYS/RED SOX OVER 10 -110
RED SOX -118
TWINS +159
CARDINALS -126
CADINALS/BREWERS OVER 8.5 -125
ATHLETICS/ASTROS UNDER 8 -100
DIAMONDBACKS/GIANTS OVER 7.5 -110
PARLAY:
CUBS/MARLINS/CARDS/RED SOX/WHITE SOX ALL ML, .5 UNIT TO WIN 4.38 UNITS
GL Everyone
Yesterday
5-5 +1.76 Units
YTD
Straight 42-34 +14.47
Parlay 4-10 +2.78
Total 46-34 +17.25 Units
CUBS/PIRATES
The Pirates are 1-12 vs Arrieta. I should just quit looking at this game now, and put CHI in a parlay. 1-12 vs Arrieta and 4/8 OU. 2-11 On the runline. Cubs are 6-6 vs Liriano, 9-3 on the runline and 5/7 OU. Liriano goes to 3-3 at home, 2/4 OU. Arrieta 5-1 in Pittsburgh, 1/5 OU. Liriano is 7-9 this year with 9/7 OU, dropping to 3-5 at home with 4/4 OU. Arrieta is 13-4 on the year with a 12/4/1 OU, a solid 8-1 on the road with an 8/0/1 OU and 7-2 on the runline. The OU numbers conflict, but I have confidence that Chicago is a solid parlay play, not overly expensive at -160, and worth selling the 1.5 on the runline and getting +100. Also, the Pirates have scored more than three runs in games vs Arrieta once in the 13 matchups, and that was the first time they faced him as a cub back in September of 2013 (ten games ago). Since then they have put up 3 one time, the rest of the matchups 2 or less. Pirates under 3 is a solid play as well
Orioles/Angels
The Orioles are 2-1 vs Shoemaker, 0/3 OU. The angels are 6-1 vs Jimenez, 3/4 OU. On the road they are 3-0 and 1/2 OU. Jimenez is 8-8 this year wtih a 10/6 OU. He is 7-2 at home with 5/4 OU. Shoemaker is 4-12 this year, with a 5/10 OU, 2-6 on the road with a 2/5/1 OU. Despite the Angels success against Jimenez, I think his solid home performance and Shoemakers struggles on the road lead to a Baltimore win. Line is not out yet, not sure how high of favorites Baltimore will be and if its worth jumping on.
Tigers/Blue Jays
Tigers are 4-1 vs Happ, 3/2 OU. The Jays are 1-2 vs Pelfrey with a 2/1 OU. Happ is 12-5 this year, 7-1 at home with a 6/2 OU. Pelfrey is 7-9 on the year, 2-6 on the road with a 2/6 OU. In the team matchups vs pitcher the Tigers seemed like a solid underdog to take, but Pelfrey struggles on the road (although he just beat Chris Archer as a 160 dog last week) and Happs home success is enough to stay away here. Almost like the Blue jays enough for a parlay play, but will stay off because of the Tigers past success on Happ.
Rays/Red Sox
Sox are 9-4 vs Archer with an 8/5 OU, 3-1 on both at home. Rays are 1-1 vs Osullivan, not playing him since 2010. Archer is 5-13 on the year, 8/10 OU, 3-6 on the road with a 6/3 OU. OSullivan is 3-0 this year, 3/0 OU. Red Sox ML and Over are both plays for me, with the ML going on a parlay with the cubs.
Yankees/Indians
Yankees are 2-1 vs Kluber, although both wins are as -180 or greater favorites, and the loss was at even money. Today they are +155. 1/2 OU. Kluber is 8-9 this year, 3-4 at home, wtih a 3/4 OU. Green is 1-1 on the year, 2/0 OU. Nothing here that gives confidence in Kluber at -165, but nothing to support taking the Yanks as the dog.
Mets/Nats
Going into this game, I love the look of getting Syndergaard at this price point, but the Mets are 3-8 vs Strasburg, 1-6 at home wtih a 4/3 OU. The Nats are 3-2 vs Syndergaard, 1-2 on the road. Syndergaard 11-5 this year, 10/5 OU, 6-3 in both at home. Strasburg is 14-1 onthe year, 13/2 OU, 5-1 on the road with a 4/2 OU. Flipping what I thought coming in, I am taking the Nats in this one, and the over is definately the trend, so will likely get on it as well. One last bit, The over has hit in every Strasburg start since April 19th.
Reds/Marlins
The Reds are 2-1 vs Fernandez, 2-1 OU, but have not beat him since may of 2013. Straily is 8-7 this year with a 10/5 OU, 3-4 on the road with a 5/2 OU. Fernandez is 11-5 this year with a 5/10 OU, 7-2 at home with a 1/7/1 OU. I won't play anything in this game, but will add the Marlins to a parlay as I don't see the Reds having much of a chance here.
Twins/Rangers
Twins are 3-1 vs Hamels, 3/1 OU and 4-0 on the RL, including a 5-4 win in this same pitcher matchup last week. Rangers are 1-3 vs Gibson, 1/3 OU. Gibson is 4-5 on the year, 1-2 on the road, 1/2 OU. Hamels is 12-5 on the year, 6-2 at home with a 5/3 OU. Hamels has been strong at home, but the Rangers are on a 3 game losing streak to Gibson, and at +165 I will roll the dice for a twins win.
Braves/White Sox
Sale is 14-3 on the year with a 10/6/1 OU. That moves to 7-1 4/4 at home. Wisler is 4-12 7/8/1 this year and on the road goes to 2-3 in both areas. Simple enough to just add the White Sox to my parlay here.
Brewers/Cards
Brewers are 1-4 vs Wacha, winning the first game they played against him. 4/1 OU. The Cards are 5-1 vs Nelson, with a 5/1 OU mark. Those numbers go to 3-1 4/0 on the road. Nelson is 7-10 on the year with a 6/9/1 OU mark, 4-5 at home with a 2/6/1 OU. Wacha is 9-8 this year with a 13/4 OU mark, 4-4 on the road with a 7/1 OU mark. I'll take the cards ML and the over here, and likely had the ML to a parlay (like the same with the over, but don't like having more than one bet per game in a parlay).
Athletics/Astros
Athletics are 1-5 vs McHugh, 2/4 OU, 0-4 on the road with a 1-3 OU mark. McHugh is 10-7 this year with a 7/10OU, 6-3 3/6 at home. Mengden 1-4 2/3 this year, 1-1 in both on the road. Under is an attractive bet in this game, ML on Astros good be in a parlay but likely will hold back there.
Phillies/Rockies
Rockies are 0-1 vs Velasquez, who is 9-5 this year with a 7/6/1 OU, 4-3 on the road. Gray is 6-8 this year, 4-2 at home with a 4/1/1 OU.
Mariners/Royals
Mariners are 3/2 vs Ventura with a 1/4 OU. Royals are 0-4 vs Iwakuma, 2/2 OU. Iwakuma is 10-7 on the year with an 11/6 OU, 5-4 on the road iwth a 4/5 OU. Ventura is 9-7 on the year, 6-1 at home. Some solid arguements for both sides of this game.
Padres/Dodgers
Padres are 1-3 vs Kazmir, wtih a 3/1 OU, while the Dodgers are 8-3 vs Cashner with a 2/8/1 OU. Cashner is 6-6 on the year, 2-3 on the road with a 3/1/1 OU, Kazmir 9-8 on the year, 9/7/1 OU, 5-4 at home iwth a 3/5/1 OU. I think the Dodgers are overpriced here, but nothing to give enough confidence in playing the Padres.
Diamondbacks/Giants
Dbacks are 4-2 vs Samardzija, 4/2 OU 2-0 in both on the road, but that was when he played in Chicago. Giants are 6-7 vs Corbin, 6/7 OU, both 3-2 at home. Corbin is 7-10 on the year, 11/6 OU, on the road he is 6/3 in both. Samardzija is 10-7 8/8 this year, 4-2 at home with a 5/1 OU rate. Like the over in this one.
CUBS-1.5 -160
PIRATES TT UNDER 3 +120
ORIOLES -114
NATIONALS +107
NATIONALS/METS OVER 7 -105
RAYS/RED SOX OVER 10 -110
RED SOX -118
TWINS +159
CARDINALS -126
CADINALS/BREWERS OVER 8.5 -125
ATHLETICS/ASTROS UNDER 8 -100
DIAMONDBACKS/GIANTS OVER 7.5 -110
PARLAY:
CUBS/MARLINS/CARDS/RED SOX/WHITE SOX ALL ML, .5 UNIT TO WIN 4.38 UNITS
GL Everyone