MLB Thoughts and Picks

BBD

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Not sure what my reasoning was for getting on the Pirates yesterday. Other than their win streak, nothing pointed to them winning that game. Fortunately it didn't prevent having another day in the green.

Yesterday
5-5 +1.76 Units

YTD
Straight 42-34 +14.47
Parlay 4-10 +2.78
Total 46-34 +17.25 Units


CUBS/PIRATES
The Pirates are 1-12 vs Arrieta. I should just quit looking at this game now, and put CHI in a parlay. 1-12 vs Arrieta and 4/8 OU. 2-11 On the runline. Cubs are 6-6 vs Liriano, 9-3 on the runline and 5/7 OU. Liriano goes to 3-3 at home, 2/4 OU. Arrieta 5-1 in Pittsburgh, 1/5 OU. Liriano is 7-9 this year with 9/7 OU, dropping to 3-5 at home with 4/4 OU. Arrieta is 13-4 on the year with a 12/4/1 OU, a solid 8-1 on the road with an 8/0/1 OU and 7-2 on the runline. The OU numbers conflict, but I have confidence that Chicago is a solid parlay play, not overly expensive at -160, and worth selling the 1.5 on the runline and getting +100. Also, the Pirates have scored more than three runs in games vs Arrieta once in the 13 matchups, and that was the first time they faced him as a cub back in September of 2013 (ten games ago). Since then they have put up 3 one time, the rest of the matchups 2 or less. Pirates under 3 is a solid play as well

Orioles/Angels
The Orioles are 2-1 vs Shoemaker, 0/3 OU. The angels are 6-1 vs Jimenez, 3/4 OU. On the road they are 3-0 and 1/2 OU. Jimenez is 8-8 this year wtih a 10/6 OU. He is 7-2 at home with 5/4 OU. Shoemaker is 4-12 this year, with a 5/10 OU, 2-6 on the road with a 2/5/1 OU. Despite the Angels success against Jimenez, I think his solid home performance and Shoemakers struggles on the road lead to a Baltimore win. Line is not out yet, not sure how high of favorites Baltimore will be and if its worth jumping on.

Tigers/Blue Jays
Tigers are 4-1 vs Happ, 3/2 OU. The Jays are 1-2 vs Pelfrey with a 2/1 OU. Happ is 12-5 this year, 7-1 at home with a 6/2 OU. Pelfrey is 7-9 on the year, 2-6 on the road with a 2/6 OU. In the team matchups vs pitcher the Tigers seemed like a solid underdog to take, but Pelfrey struggles on the road (although he just beat Chris Archer as a 160 dog last week) and Happs home success is enough to stay away here. Almost like the Blue jays enough for a parlay play, but will stay off because of the Tigers past success on Happ.

Rays/Red Sox
Sox are 9-4 vs Archer with an 8/5 OU, 3-1 on both at home. Rays are 1-1 vs Osullivan, not playing him since 2010. Archer is 5-13 on the year, 8/10 OU, 3-6 on the road with a 6/3 OU. OSullivan is 3-0 this year, 3/0 OU. Red Sox ML and Over are both plays for me, with the ML going on a parlay with the cubs.


Yankees/Indians
Yankees are 2-1 vs Kluber, although both wins are as -180 or greater favorites, and the loss was at even money. Today they are +155. 1/2 OU. Kluber is 8-9 this year, 3-4 at home, wtih a 3/4 OU. Green is 1-1 on the year, 2/0 OU. Nothing here that gives confidence in Kluber at -165, but nothing to support taking the Yanks as the dog.

Mets/Nats
Going into this game, I love the look of getting Syndergaard at this price point, but the Mets are 3-8 vs Strasburg, 1-6 at home wtih a 4/3 OU. The Nats are 3-2 vs Syndergaard, 1-2 on the road. Syndergaard 11-5 this year, 10/5 OU, 6-3 in both at home. Strasburg is 14-1 onthe year, 13/2 OU, 5-1 on the road with a 4/2 OU. Flipping what I thought coming in, I am taking the Nats in this one, and the over is definately the trend, so will likely get on it as well. One last bit, The over has hit in every Strasburg start since April 19th.

Reds/Marlins
The Reds are 2-1 vs Fernandez, 2-1 OU, but have not beat him since may of 2013. Straily is 8-7 this year with a 10/5 OU, 3-4 on the road with a 5/2 OU. Fernandez is 11-5 this year with a 5/10 OU, 7-2 at home with a 1/7/1 OU. I won't play anything in this game, but will add the Marlins to a parlay as I don't see the Reds having much of a chance here.

Twins/Rangers
Twins are 3-1 vs Hamels, 3/1 OU and 4-0 on the RL, including a 5-4 win in this same pitcher matchup last week. Rangers are 1-3 vs Gibson, 1/3 OU. Gibson is 4-5 on the year, 1-2 on the road, 1/2 OU. Hamels is 12-5 on the year, 6-2 at home with a 5/3 OU. Hamels has been strong at home, but the Rangers are on a 3 game losing streak to Gibson, and at +165 I will roll the dice for a twins win.

Braves/White Sox
Sale is 14-3 on the year with a 10/6/1 OU. That moves to 7-1 4/4 at home. Wisler is 4-12 7/8/1 this year and on the road goes to 2-3 in both areas. Simple enough to just add the White Sox to my parlay here.

Brewers/Cards
Brewers are 1-4 vs Wacha, winning the first game they played against him. 4/1 OU. The Cards are 5-1 vs Nelson, with a 5/1 OU mark. Those numbers go to 3-1 4/0 on the road. Nelson is 7-10 on the year with a 6/9/1 OU mark, 4-5 at home with a 2/6/1 OU. Wacha is 9-8 this year with a 13/4 OU mark, 4-4 on the road with a 7/1 OU mark. I'll take the cards ML and the over here, and likely had the ML to a parlay (like the same with the over, but don't like having more than one bet per game in a parlay).

Athletics/Astros
Athletics are 1-5 vs McHugh, 2/4 OU, 0-4 on the road with a 1-3 OU mark. McHugh is 10-7 this year with a 7/10OU, 6-3 3/6 at home. Mengden 1-4 2/3 this year, 1-1 in both on the road. Under is an attractive bet in this game, ML on Astros good be in a parlay but likely will hold back there.

Phillies/Rockies
Rockies are 0-1 vs Velasquez, who is 9-5 this year with a 7/6/1 OU, 4-3 on the road. Gray is 6-8 this year, 4-2 at home with a 4/1/1 OU.

Mariners/Royals
Mariners are 3/2 vs Ventura with a 1/4 OU. Royals are 0-4 vs Iwakuma, 2/2 OU. Iwakuma is 10-7 on the year with an 11/6 OU, 5-4 on the road iwth a 4/5 OU. Ventura is 9-7 on the year, 6-1 at home. Some solid arguements for both sides of this game.

Padres/Dodgers
Padres are 1-3 vs Kazmir, wtih a 3/1 OU, while the Dodgers are 8-3 vs Cashner with a 2/8/1 OU. Cashner is 6-6 on the year, 2-3 on the road with a 3/1/1 OU, Kazmir 9-8 on the year, 9/7/1 OU, 5-4 at home iwth a 3/5/1 OU. I think the Dodgers are overpriced here, but nothing to give enough confidence in playing the Padres.

Diamondbacks/Giants
Dbacks are 4-2 vs Samardzija, 4/2 OU 2-0 in both on the road, but that was when he played in Chicago. Giants are 6-7 vs Corbin, 6/7 OU, both 3-2 at home. Corbin is 7-10 on the year, 11/6 OU, on the road he is 6/3 in both. Samardzija is 10-7 8/8 this year, 4-2 at home with a 5/1 OU rate. Like the over in this one.

CUBS-1.5 -160
PIRATES TT UNDER 3 +120
ORIOLES -114
NATIONALS +107
NATIONALS/METS OVER 7 -105
RAYS/RED SOX OVER 10 -110
RED SOX -118
TWINS +159
CARDINALS -126
CADINALS/BREWERS OVER 8.5 -125
ATHLETICS/ASTROS UNDER 8 -100
DIAMONDBACKS/GIANTS OVER 7.5 -110

PARLAY:
CUBS/MARLINS/CARDS/RED SOX/WHITE SOX ALL ML, .5 UNIT TO WIN 4.38 UNITS




GL Everyone
 

BBD

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Bad go at it yesterday, will update record later.

Braves/White Sox
Quintana is 2/15 OU this year, Teheran is 6/10, 2/5 on the road, taking the under



Orioles/Angels

Tropeano is 3-3 2/4 OU this year on the road, Yovani Gallardo 3-0 0/3 at home. Taking the under here as well

Red Sox/Rays
Moore is 0-6 on the road, Porcello 8-0 at home. Don't like to ever lay this much, but Red Sox ML is in play for me here.

Back with more later.

BRAVES/WHITE SOX UNDER 7.5 -115
ANGELS ORIOLES UNDER 10.5 +100
RED SOX -168
 

BBD

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Started the day:

YTD:
Straight 46-42 +9.84
Parlay 4-11 +2.28
50-53 +12.12



Padres/Dodgers
Padres 1-7 vs McCarthy, 3/4/1 OU. Perdomo is 4-2 on the year with a 4/1/1 OU, both go to 3/1 on the road. McCarthy is 1-0 on the year, 0/1 OU. 3

Mets/Nats
Mets are 5-4 vs Scherzer with a 2/7 OU, 3-2 1/4 at home. Nats are 1-0 1/0 vs Verrett, with Scherzer winning against him 4-2 at the end of June. Scherzer is 10-8 on the year, 6-5 on the road with a 8/2 OU. Verrett is 2-3 on the year, 1-0 at home.

Pirates/Cubs
Pirates are 3-4 vs Lester, 1/6 OU, both 1-2 at home. Kuhl is 2-0 this year, 1/1 OU, Lester is 12-5 9/7/1, 6-3 on the road with a 7/2 OU. Kuhl has pitched well, and the Pirates have been hot, gonna take the money at +155

Phillies/Rockies
Eickhoff is 8-9 on the year wtih a 5/11/1 OU, both go to 3-5 on the road. Anderson is 1-4 on the year, 1-4 OU, both go to 1-2 at home. Andersons low win percentage is enough for me to get on Philly against him, also like the under here.

Twins/Rangers
Twins are 1-2 vs Lohse, wtih a 3/0 OU, Rangers 1-0 vs Nolasco, 1/0 OU, Nolasco is 6-11 on the year with a 14-3 o/u mark, 3-5 on the road iwth a 7/1 OU. Pounding the over here.


PIRATES +155
PHILLIES +145
PHILLIES/ROCKIES UNDER 11.5 -110
TWINS/RANGERS OVER 10.5 -110
 

BBD

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Yesterday 5-2 +3.4

YTD
Straight 51-44 +13.24
Parlay 4-11 +2.28
Total 55-55 +15.52

Tigers/Blue Jays
Tigers are 3-8 vs Dickey, 1-8 RL and 7/3/1 OU. 2-5, 4/3 on the road. The Blue Jays are 3-4 vs Sanchez, 1-1 at home. Sanchez is 3-10 this year with an 11/2 OU, 1-6 on the road with a 6/1 OU. Dickey is 6-12 this year, 5/10/3 OU, 1-8 at home with a 4/4/1 OU. Blue Jays are a hot team, winning 7 of thier last 8, and as much as I want to pick on Dickey at home, a 1-6 road pitcher vs a hot team in the Blue Jays is enough to stay away. Also, while there is trends towards the over, the jays have gone under in their last 4, the tigers under in their last three.

Nationals/Mets
Nats are 0-1 vs Matz, 0/1 OU, Mets 7-12 vs Gio, 7/10/2 OU, 3-9 at home wtih a 4/7/1 OU. Matz is 9-6 on the year, 7/8 OU, 4-4 in both at home. Gonzalez is 6-11 this year, 8/8 OU, 2-6 on the road with a 4/3/1 OU. Nationals are 10-4 since the 24th, Mets 7-7. Gio is rough on the road, but my edge in this one goes to the Nats. They haven't struggled to put runs up lately, and opponents vs Matz have put up 5,3,6,4,5,3,6 in his last 7 outings. Was gonna take the Nats to win, but the over 4 TT is at +140 and If they win I think they definetly get 4, so I'll take the extra money on the team total. (in the time it took me to write this, the line moved from Nats +125 to -103, and TT fell from +140 to +135)

Yankees/Indians
Yankees are 2-4 vs Carrasco with a 4/2 OU, 2-1 in Cle with a 3/0 OU. Indians are 2-0 vs Tanaka with a 2/0 OU. Tanaka is 12-5 this year iwth a 6/10/1 OU, 5-3 on the road with a 2/6 OU. Carrasco is 9-2 this year iwth a 4/7 OU, that moves to 5-0 at home with a 3/2 OU. Yankees 6-8 since the 25th, Indians 9-5. Indians ML at -138 here.

Reds/Marlins
Reds are 1-0 vs Koehler, 0/1 OU. Reed is 0-4 this year, with a 4/0 OU. Koehler is 6-11. 9/8 OU, 2-5 at home iwth a 3/4 OU. Both pitchers are bad, but neither team has been laying on the runs lately. Gonna lay off everything here


Angels/Orioles
Angels 1-3 vs Tillman, 2-2 OU. O's are 0-1 v Lincecum, but that was back in 2010. This year Lincecum is 2-2 with a 2/2 OU, while Tillman is 15-3, 6/11 and 11-0 at home with a 4/7 OU. He is also 8-3 vs the RL, and I will likely take that here, plus the Orioles in a Parlay.

Rays/Red Sox
Rays are 4-1 v Price, 3/2 OU. Red Sox are 3-6 vs Odorizzi, 3-6 OU. That goes to 3-3, 2/4 at home. Jake Odorizzi is 9-9 this year, 6-2 on the road. Price is 10-8 this year, 5-5 at home. Like the Rays at +205 here.

Cubs/Pirates
Pirates are hot. 10-3 since the 25th. The Cubs are 7-4 vs Niese, 4-2 on the road, and have won 7 of the last 9 matchups. Pirates are 3-2 v Lackey. Lackey is 9-8 on the year, 5-4 on the road. Niese is 9-8 on the year, 4-4 at home. Nothing in this one for me.

Braves/White Sox
Braves are 3-1 vs Shields, with a 3/1 OU. Shields is 5-12 this year, 4-6 at home, 3-1 at home since playing for Chicago. 6/4 OU at home, with the last 4 going over. Folty is 1-4 this year, 2/3 OU. Was looking for a White Sox TT here, but 5 is just too high for me. Wouldn't mind the Braves ML if they were getting a little more than +152

Cards/Brewers
Brewers are 8-4 vs Leake, 6/6 OU. Both go to 5-3 at home. Cards are 1-0 vs Guerra, winning 6-0 back in May. Guerra is 10-2 on the year, 4-2 at home, Leak 7-10 this year, 5-4 on the road with a 6/3 road OU.

Athletics/Astros
Athletics are 4-6 vs Keuchel, winning the last matchup but dropping the previus 6 to that. OU 4/6 and 3-7 on the RL. 2-4 in both on the road. Astros are 0-1 vs Manaea. Manaea is 5-6 this year, 0-3 on the road with a 2/0/1 OU. Keuchel is 8-10 on the year, 3-4 at home wtih a 2/4/1 OU. Astros have put up 5,10,13,5 in Kuechels last 4 starts, while on the road Manaea has given up 11,5,13 runs. Astros TT over 4.5 here.

Royals/Mariners
Royals 0-1 vs montomery, 0/1 OU. Gee is 2-2 this year, 1-1 at home. Not enough data here to even try for a trend.

Twins/Rangers
Twins are 0-2 vs Griffin, 2/0 OU. Rangers are 6-3 v Milone, wtih a 4/5 OU. That goes to 4-2 1/5 on at home. Milone is 3-4 this year with a 4/2/1 OU, 0-4 on the road with a 2/1/1 OU. Griffin is 7-2 on the year, 3-0 at home with a 3/0 OU. Rangers have scored 10,10, 7 in all of his home starts. In Milones away starts, opponents have scored 6,5,10,and 7 runs. Rangers TT over 5.5, and the Ranger ML in a parlay (so far with the o's ML)

Padres/Dodgers
Padres 0-2 vs Maeda, 1/0/1 OU. Dodgers put up 9,7 runs in those games. Dodgers 0-1 vs Friedrich, 1/0 OU and scored 6 runs. Friedrich is 5-5 this year wtih an 8/2 OU, 2-3 on the road with a 3/2 OU. Maeda is 9-8 this year, 7/9/1 OU. 3-6 at home iwth a 3/6 OU. At first I liked the dodgers TT over, but Maeda has gotten no run support at home this year. Even Friedrichs OU rate dropping on the road is gonna push me away from this one.

Phillies/Rockies
Phillies are 1-2 2/1 vs Chatwood, 0-2 on the road with 2/0 OU. Chatwood is 10-5 on the year, 3/11/1 OU, 3-4 at home with a 1/6 OU. Eflin 2-3 this year, 3/2 OU, 1-2 on the road iwth a 3/0 OU. Eflin gives up a ton of runs on the road, and Chatwood has been holding teams in check recently in coors field, minus a blowup by the reds. Taking the under 13 in this one, as I think the Rockies win big, but i feel safe for it to be a 10-2 or less runs scored type matchup.

Giants/Dbacks
Giants are a huge favorite, and looking at these two teams records since the 25th, the Giants are 8-5 while the Dbacks are 2-10 with a 9/3 OU. Looking at the Dbacks last 12 games, opponenents have scored 4,6,13,5,8,5,5,6,9,4,8,9 runs. The Giants have also been scoring at a pretty good pace, and the TT currently sits at 4. Dbacks are 10-13 vs Bumgarner, winning 4 of thier last 5. That goes to 7-3 in SF, with a 3/7 OU. In the last three of those games, the Giants have scored 1 run. The Giants are 0-2 2/0 vs Bradley. WTF is going on here, at first this was suppose to be an easy pick. Lock in the Giants ML to my parlay and take the TT over. The Giants have scored 7 and 6 runs in those losses, but Dbacks bats came alive. And one of those 2 matchups is against Bumgarner. Bumgarner is 12-6 on the year, 6-4 at home. Bradley is 5-5 on the year, with an 8/2 OU, including opponenets scoring 8,9,9 runs in his last three outings. But on the road he is 4-1. While I love the Giants to hit the TT over, I won't go against my other bet, which is that I want the DBACKS at +225! Outside of them being absolutely horrible recently, this matchup has everything I look for to pick a big upset.

NATIONALS TT OVER 4 +135
INDIANS -138
ORIOLES -1.5 -105
RAYS +205
ASTROS TT OVER 4.5 +100
RANGERS TT OVER 5.5 -105
PHILLIES/ROCKIES UNDER 13 -110
DIAMONDBACKS +225

PARLAY:
RANGERS/ORIOLES ML 1 TO WIN 1.54



GL Everyone! Anyone else getting on the Dbacks for tonight????
 

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ADDING:

ARIZONA SCORES FIRST +105
ARIZONA FIRST 5 INNINGS +230
ARIZONA OVER 1.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS +120
 

BBD

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YTD
Straight 52-53 +4.82
Parlay 4-12 +1.28
Total 56-65 +6.10

Debating changing the betting style to picking one game and playing multiple lines. Example: Betting the over, both team overs, over first 5, both team over first 5 if the heavy lean is to the over. Not sure yet, maybe play one game this way plus a few underdogs that I like.


For Friday:

Tigers/Royals
Detroit is 4-0 vs Kennedy, the royals 14-25 vs Verlander, losing 5 of their last 6 against him. That record goes to 6-11 on the road. Verlander is 10-8 on the year, 5-4 at home, winning 4 of his last 5 home starts. Kennedy is 9-8 on the year, 4-7 on the road losing his last 5 road starts. I'll take the Tigers ML if its not too steep.

Rockies/Braves
Rockies are 4/0 OU vs Harrell, Braves 3/2 OU vs De La Rosa, 3/0 at home. De La Rosa is 7/4 OU this year, 2-4 on the road. Harrell is 1/1 OU this year. This game almost has what I am looking for with the OU, but may lay off hitting it hard due to Rosa's road OU record. De La Rosa is 2-4 on the road this year, and Harrell 2-0 on the year. The Braves are 3-2 vs De La Rosa but 3-0 at home. Rockies 2-2 vs Harrell, 1-1 on the road. Braves may not be a bad ML pick if they are a decent underdog.

Indians/Twins
At first I thought this could be a pick for the Twins to upset Carrasco, and that may be a play if they are a large enough dog. The Twins are 7-2 vs Carrasco, 3-1 at home. But the Indians are 13-7 on Santana, 4-5 on the road. Carrasco is 9-3 on the year, 4-2 on the road. Santana 3-13, 2-7 at home. His second biggest underdog matchup of the year he beat Kluber, holding the Indians to only 3 runs. But the OU line is what I like here, and will be tempted to hit the under all sorts of ways. Twins are 3/6 OU vs Carrasco, 1/3 at home. Indians are 7/13 vs Santana, 1/8 on the road. Carrasco is 5/7 on the year, 1/5 away, Santana 8/8 on the year, 5/4 at home. The main issue is in their last 9, Indians are 7/1/1 OU, but 2/3 on the road. Twins 4/1/1 in their last six, 3/3 at home. The teams have seen a lot of runs in their recent games, but there is a possibility for cold bats after the break, and a trend in recent matchups for the under.

Mariners/Astros
The team matchups vs pitchers are minimal here, but Fister is 11-6 this year, 5/11 OU, 6-3 on the road with a 2/7 OU. Paxton is 2-6 on the year, 4/4 OU, 1-3 at home with a 2/2 OU. I like Fister for the win here, hopefully as a road dog.

Giants/Padres
Damit did Bumgarner make me pay going against him last Sunday. Taking a look at this one, Giants are 7-3 v Cashner, winning 5 of the last 6. They are 0-3 on the road against him. The Padres are 9-15 vs Bumgarner, going 6-5 against him at home and winning 4 of the last 6. Bumgarner is 13-6 on the year, 6-2 on the road. Cashner is 6-7 this year, 4-3 at home. I'm glad I typed this one out, becaust the 0-3 v Bumgarner at home had me leaning to taking a Padres ML, but this is definately one for me to sit out.


Teams not done because pitchers arent out:
Marlins/Cards
Nats/Pirates
Dodgers/Dbacks

Back to revisit these games when the lines come out!
 

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Rays/Orioles
Looking at Raymond's Series info thread, he points out that the Rays are in a major slump, and have been 3-17 since the 20th of June. IArcher has los his last 7 starts, and 10 of his last 11. Gallardo has won 4 of his last 5, and is 6-3 on the year. Orioles are 11-7 since the 20th, and won 4 of thier last 5. Road dog money for the O's here.

Cubs/Rangers
Both teams are in horrible slumps, and chicago is 2-9 over their last 11. Hendricks has been the only bright spot in pitching lately, posting 4 straight wins. Normally I wouldnt go against that kind of streak, but getting +183 for Division leader (in a losing slump), who is 54-36 vs another division leader (also in a losing slump) that is 53-35 is hard to turn down. Also, see Raymond's writeup in his series info thread.


RANGERS +183
ORIOLES +125
BRAVES +111
INDIANS/TWINS UNDER 8.5 -115
ASTROS +110

Also getting:
Orioles +1685 to win the series

 

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Something else I came across (not my original findings) over the All Star Break is playing the away dog on an in game bet after they score in the first inning. I don't have the in game line data to know what the line is dropping to, but this year the away dog is 118-104 (53.2%) when scoring in the top of the first. Adjusting to when the opening lgame line is +150 or less, it has hit at 90-61 (59.6%) this year.
2015 203-128 (61.3%)
2014 177-130 (57.7%)
2013 163-132 (57%)

I don't do much live betting in baseball, but will look for this when the oppurtunity shows up. If you feel like going along with this, or just checking to see how well it pays feel free to post the in game line after the first inning for any Away Dogs you see scoring in the top first.
 

BBD

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Something else I came across (not my original findings) over the All Star Break is playing the away dog on an in game bet after they score in the first inning. I don't have the in game line data to know what the line is dropping to, but this year the away dog is 118-104 (53.2%) when scoring in the top of the first. Adjusting to when the opening lgame line is +150 or less, it has hit at 90-61 (59.6%) this year.
2015 203-128 (61.3%)
2014 177-130 (57.7%)
2013 163-132 (57%)

I don't do much live betting in baseball, but will look for this when the oppurtunity shows up. If you feel like going along with this, or just checking to see how well it pays feel free to post the in game line after the first inning for any Away Dogs you see scoring in the top first.

Brewers in play. 2-1 on the year on this trend.


Brewers -1 +150 In Game

Had to edit the above, meant to get brewers on the ML and got them at -1. For tracking, they were at +100 in mid 2nd. Dammit
 
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