Ahh one of these days we gotta get together at the South Point with Hooks (Dave)
I believe he still lives there. LOL
I believe he still lives there. LOL
MNF - HOU at NE write-ups
- Thread starter Senor Capper
- Start date
Look for the poncho and a bag of fritos :0corn
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TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
NEW ENGLAND -4,5 over Houston: Watching ESPN this morning and I really like what Herm Edwards said. The Texans are really making this into their biggest game game they have ever played and with that they have now put a ton of pressure on themselves and teams that do that don't always perform the best. Don't get me wrong, this is a big game for the Pats as well, but they don't put pressure on themselves like other teams will do. They just go out and get the job done. The Patriot offense has been machine like this year as they have averaged 35.8 ppg overall and 34.8 ppg at home. A big addition to the pats offense has been a running game that has come alive to rank 8th in the league at 140.8 ypg. A running game to go along with this passing games makes them nearly impossible to stop. The Texan defense is 6th overall, but they can be thrown on, ranking 16th vs the pass (234.8 ypg). including allowing 352 ypg passing in their last 3 games. Let's also note that Houston has struggled vs 3 very good offenses this year (Green Bay, Detroit and Denver), allowing 32.6 ppg in the 3 games, plus they did allow a weak Jacksonville offense to pass for 372 yards and put up 37 points on them just 3 games ago. This unit has been hit by some injuries and it's starting to wear down and a road date in December vs the Pats is not what a worn down defense needs. The Houston offense has been very good this year, but the Pats defense has not been all that bad as tyhey have allowed just 21.7 ppg on the year. They do give up allot of yards passing, but allot of that is garbage yards when teams are trying top catch up. This is a big game for both teams, but the Pats will handle the pressure so much better. New England will make a statement in this game with a win by double digits.
3 UNIT PLAY
7 POINT TEASER --- Pats +2.5 & Over 44
2 UNIT PLAY
Houston/ Pats Over 51
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TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
NEW ENGLAND -4,5 over Houston: Watching ESPN this morning and I really like what Herm Edwards said. The Texans are really making this into their biggest game game they have ever played and with that they have now put a ton of pressure on themselves and teams that do that don't always perform the best. Don't get me wrong, this is a big game for the Pats as well, but they don't put pressure on themselves like other teams will do. They just go out and get the job done. The Patriot offense has been machine like this year as they have averaged 35.8 ppg overall and 34.8 ppg at home. A big addition to the pats offense has been a running game that has come alive to rank 8th in the league at 140.8 ypg. A running game to go along with this passing games makes them nearly impossible to stop. The Texan defense is 6th overall, but they can be thrown on, ranking 16th vs the pass (234.8 ypg). including allowing 352 ypg passing in their last 3 games. Let's also note that Houston has struggled vs 3 very good offenses this year (Green Bay, Detroit and Denver), allowing 32.6 ppg in the 3 games, plus they did allow a weak Jacksonville offense to pass for 372 yards and put up 37 points on them just 3 games ago. This unit has been hit by some injuries and it's starting to wear down and a road date in December vs the Pats is not what a worn down defense needs. The Houston offense has been very good this year, but the Pats defense has not been all that bad as tyhey have allowed just 21.7 ppg on the year. They do give up allot of yards passing, but allot of that is garbage yards when teams are trying top catch up. This is a big game for both teams, but the Pats will handle the pressure so much better. New England will make a statement in this game with a win by double digits.
3 UNIT PLAY
7 POINT TEASER --- Pats +2.5 & Over 44
2 UNIT PLAY
Houston/ Pats Over 51
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
We could witness the start of a new regime on Monday Night Football when the traditional powerhouses, the New England Patriots (9-3, 7-5 ATS) host the new giants of the AFC, the Houston Texans (11-1, 8-4 ATS) at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA at 8:35 ET on ESPN. Although the Texans are 11-1, they have not caught the fascination of the entire country yet because they have had some close calls vs. some mediocre competition. That could change if they can pull off a win here vs. Tom Brady & Co. on the road. The Patriots come in riding a six-game winning streak of their own, matching the winning streak of the Texans since their only loss to the Green Bay Packers at home.
Thus Houston is a perfect 6-0 on the road going 4-2 ATS in those games, and they have both one of the best running games and best defenses in the NFL. That could be another reason why the Texans have not captured the public fancy as they do not get involved in many high-scoring shootouts like the Patriots do. Instead, all Houston does is win by ranking sixth in the NFL in rushing offense at 141.4 yards per game and an identical sixth in total defense at 322.9 yards, as well as fourth in scoring defense allowing just 18.4 points per contest. Houston is very physical on the line on both sides of the ball, as the offensive line has opened up some gaping holes for Arian Foster to run through and the defense lines heads a front seven that has 37 sacks through 12 games. Winning the battles on both lines of scrimmage can help make the Texans the undisputed new kings of the AFC Monday night.
Now Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, and New England will obviously always merit respect as long as he is under center. But he does not like getting hit much, and you may recall that the few teams that have beaten the Patriots in recent years were all teams that play physical defense and that get to the quarterback out of a base defense without needing to blitz, as Brady can beat any blitzing defense. Well, the Texans fit that mold. Moreover, the New England offensive line has had a few breakdowns this season as it is not as good or as deep as in recent seasons. One way to slow down the Houston pass rush is by running the ball effectively, and Stevan Ridley is an upgrade at running back over other New England feature backs in recent years. The problem of course is that Houston leads the AFC and ranks second in the NFL in rushing defense allowing a scant 88.2 yards per game on the ground.
The Texans are coming off of a 24-10 win at Tennessee, and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. They are also 17-5-2 ATS in their last 24 conference games overall as their lines are still not padded as much as other elite teams. The Patriots are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
Pick: OVER 51
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With a two-game lead on the rest of the AFC, the Houston Texans (+3.5, Over/Under 51) could go a long way toward proving they're the team to beat this week. The New England Patriots, though, certainly aren't ready to concede the conference they've represented in the Super Bowl five times in the last 11 years. These powers each bring a six-game winning streak into Monday night's showdown (8:35 PM EST) in Foxborough, where Houston will put its unblemished road record on the line against the AFC East champions.
The Texans (11-1 SU, 8-4-0 ATS) and Patriots (9-3 SU, 7-5-0 ATS) have met only three times before - once at New England, where Houston lost 40-7 in 2006 - but a new rivalry could be about to develop, with the chance of a more important matchup in the upcoming playoffs. "You've got one of the all-time great leaders in football from a coaching standpoint and a quarterback standpoint," Texans coach Gary Kubiak said of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. "You know you're going to have to raise your level of play and play as good as you can possibly play. That's why we do what we do. It is a big challenge, but I know our football team will be looking forward to it."
In the franchise's first postseason appearance last season, Houston came close to earning a date with the Patriots in the AFC title game, but lost to Baltimore in the divisional round. Now, with Matt Schaub healthy and star defensive end J.J. Watt helping his unit overcome a slew of injuries, the Texans have taken another step forward. They've shown their mettle with six road wins in as many trips, including games at Denver and Chicago. With four contests still to play, they already have set a single-season franchise record with 11 victories following last Sunday's 24-10 win at Tennessee.
Schaub threw a pair of touchdown passes and Watt had two sacks along with his 14th and 15th passes defensed, giving him more than twice as many as any other defensive lineman. "He's an incredible player," Brady said. "He does pretty much everything for them." Belichick joked that the Patriots would use brooms in practice to simulate Watt's long arms. The Texans may need their pass rush to disrupt Brady given the injuries in their secondary, with cornerback Brice McCain out and All-Pro Johnathan Joseph day to day after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. Linebacker Brooks Reed (groin) remains out, although Bradie James (hamstring) may return following a one-game absence.
Houston has allowed an average of 352.0 passing yards the last three weeks, a troubling trend before facing New England's high-powered attack. "It's Monday and it's scary so I'm sure it's going to be real scary getting toward the end of the week," Kubiak said at the beginning of the week. "We know we're going to play a great player and one of the top passing games in the business for a long, long time." The Patriots' offense was relatively quiet last weekend, but the team still beat Miami 23-16 to clinch its ninth division title in 10 years. Brady threw his first interception in six games and the Patriots gained a season-low 321 yards, but their 26th-ranked defense held the Dolphins to 277.
"When (the) offense struggles, it's a chance for us to showcase how special we are on the defensive end," tackle Vince Wilfork said. "Offense is OK to have a bad game here and there. They've done so much for us and one thing we want to do around here is we always want to play as a team." With New England already adjusting to tight end Rob Gronkowski's absence, wide receiver Julian Edelman was lost for the season last week due to a foot injury. The Patriots re-signed receiver Donte' Stallworth on Tuesday. Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez, though, may continue to pick up the slack. That duo combined for 20 catches and 200 yards against Miami, and Welker is back on top of the NFL with 92 receptions.
The last time the Patriots faced Houston, Welker tore his left ACL and MCL in a 34-27 loss in Week #17 of the 2009 season. That game meant little to a New England team that had already clinched the East. Monday's contest is very significant if the Patriots hope to secure a first-round bye and perhaps home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. A win would pull them within one game of Houston while also giving them the tiebreaker, while a loss would all but lock up the No. 1 seed for the Texans, who would then have victories over all the other division leaders in the conference.
"This game is hugely important to our season," Brady said. "It's an AFC opponent that's 11-1.... I think for us as a team, there's not really much more you could ask for than that: to play Monday Night Football in December against one of the best teams in the National Football League and see what we're capable of." The Patriots are 10-1 in their last 11 Monday night contests, with the wins coming by an average of more than 20 points. And are an amazing 20-0 SU during the second-half of the season since 2010, +51 in net turnovers (57-6) in those games.
*PREGAME NOTES: According to our database here at StatSystems Sports, we learn that not only is Bill Belichick 21-12 ATS at Gillette Stadium the last four games of the season (19-7 ATS when not favored by 11 or more points), Tom Brady weighs in with a 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS mark under the Monday Night lights versus a less-than 1.000 opponent, including 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS when the Patriots own a .640 or higher win percentage. It also reminds us that: NFL teams playing their 3rd straight road game, the last being a SU division win, are just 15-36 ATS since 1980. And when a squad ventures into Foxborough on a 3rd consecutive road game, the Patriots have gone 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS if they?re off a win of 6 or more points. Meanwhile, HC Gary Kubiak is only 3-7 ATS away in a season?s last four games and his squad has lived on the edge lately, going 1-3 ITS (In The Stats) in their last four contests.
* HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
------------------------------
--NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992.
--3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 versus the first half line when playing against HOUSTON since 1992.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
?MATCHUP POWER TRENDS
------------------------------
--HOUSTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 19.3, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 1*)
--HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 13.9, OPPONENT 17.8 - (Rating = 1*)
--HOUSTON is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 7.3, OPPONENT 18.0 - (Rating = 1*)
--HOUSTON is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 6.4, OPPONENT 17.0 - (Rating = 1*)
--HOUSTON is 1-8 against the 1rst half line (-7.8 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 9.1, OPPONENT 15.7 - (Rating = 1*)
--HOUSTON is 15-3 UNDER (+11.7 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 8.5, OPPONENT 10.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 23.4, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 1*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 24.4, OPPONENT 20.9 - (Rating = 1*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 36.1, OPPONENT 20.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 10.9, OPPONENT 8.3 - (Rating = 3*)
?SITUATIONAL POWER TRENDS
----------------------------------
--HOUSTON is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 18.9, OPPONENT 17.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--HOUSTON is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 26.3, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--HOUSTON is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 18.9, OPPONENT 17.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--HOUSTON is 12-2 against the 1rst half line (+9.8 Units) versus the 1rst half line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 14.7, OPPONENT 8.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 15.0, OPPONENT 7.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--HOUSTON is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 13.6, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--HOUSTON is 8-20 against the 1rst half line (-14.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 7.0, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 36.9, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 3*)
?COACHING TRENDS
-----------------------
--Kubiak is 26-11 OVER (+13.9 Units) the 1rst half total off a division game as the coach of HOUSTON.
The average score was HOUSTON 12.5, OPPONENT 12.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--Belichick is 99-65 ATS (+27.5 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 26.5, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--Belichick is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) off a division game as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 27.5, OPPONENT 18.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--Belichick is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) in the second half of the season as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 23.7, OPPONENT 10.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--Belichick is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 29 or more points/game in the second half of the season as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 22.9, OPPONENT 17.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--Belichick is 33-17 against the 1rst half line (+14.3 Units) in December games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 15.9, OPPONENT 7.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--Belichick is 32-15 OVER (+15.5 Units) the 1rst half total in the last 4 weeks of the regular season as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 15.9, OPPONENT 8.0 - (Rating = 2*)
?BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 42.1
The average score in these games was: Team 20.2, Opponent 17.7 (Total points scored = 37.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 13 (39.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (49-29).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (118-102).
_________________________
We could witness the start of a new regime on Monday Night Football when the traditional powerhouses, the New England Patriots (9-3, 7-5 ATS) host the new giants of the AFC, the Houston Texans (11-1, 8-4 ATS) at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA at 8:35 ET on ESPN. Although the Texans are 11-1, they have not caught the fascination of the entire country yet because they have had some close calls vs. some mediocre competition. That could change if they can pull off a win here vs. Tom Brady & Co. on the road. The Patriots come in riding a six-game winning streak of their own, matching the winning streak of the Texans since their only loss to the Green Bay Packers at home.
Thus Houston is a perfect 6-0 on the road going 4-2 ATS in those games, and they have both one of the best running games and best defenses in the NFL. That could be another reason why the Texans have not captured the public fancy as they do not get involved in many high-scoring shootouts like the Patriots do. Instead, all Houston does is win by ranking sixth in the NFL in rushing offense at 141.4 yards per game and an identical sixth in total defense at 322.9 yards, as well as fourth in scoring defense allowing just 18.4 points per contest. Houston is very physical on the line on both sides of the ball, as the offensive line has opened up some gaping holes for Arian Foster to run through and the defense lines heads a front seven that has 37 sacks through 12 games. Winning the battles on both lines of scrimmage can help make the Texans the undisputed new kings of the AFC Monday night.
Now Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, and New England will obviously always merit respect as long as he is under center. But he does not like getting hit much, and you may recall that the few teams that have beaten the Patriots in recent years were all teams that play physical defense and that get to the quarterback out of a base defense without needing to blitz, as Brady can beat any blitzing defense. Well, the Texans fit that mold. Moreover, the New England offensive line has had a few breakdowns this season as it is not as good or as deep as in recent seasons. One way to slow down the Houston pass rush is by running the ball effectively, and Stevan Ridley is an upgrade at running back over other New England feature backs in recent years. The problem of course is that Houston leads the AFC and ranks second in the NFL in rushing defense allowing a scant 88.2 yards per game on the ground.
The Texans are coming off of a 24-10 win at Tennessee, and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. They are also 17-5-2 ATS in their last 24 conference games overall as their lines are still not padded as much as other elite teams. The Patriots are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
Pick: OVER 51
================
With a two-game lead on the rest of the AFC, the Houston Texans (+3.5, Over/Under 51) could go a long way toward proving they're the team to beat this week. The New England Patriots, though, certainly aren't ready to concede the conference they've represented in the Super Bowl five times in the last 11 years. These powers each bring a six-game winning streak into Monday night's showdown (8:35 PM EST) in Foxborough, where Houston will put its unblemished road record on the line against the AFC East champions.
The Texans (11-1 SU, 8-4-0 ATS) and Patriots (9-3 SU, 7-5-0 ATS) have met only three times before - once at New England, where Houston lost 40-7 in 2006 - but a new rivalry could be about to develop, with the chance of a more important matchup in the upcoming playoffs. "You've got one of the all-time great leaders in football from a coaching standpoint and a quarterback standpoint," Texans coach Gary Kubiak said of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. "You know you're going to have to raise your level of play and play as good as you can possibly play. That's why we do what we do. It is a big challenge, but I know our football team will be looking forward to it."
In the franchise's first postseason appearance last season, Houston came close to earning a date with the Patriots in the AFC title game, but lost to Baltimore in the divisional round. Now, with Matt Schaub healthy and star defensive end J.J. Watt helping his unit overcome a slew of injuries, the Texans have taken another step forward. They've shown their mettle with six road wins in as many trips, including games at Denver and Chicago. With four contests still to play, they already have set a single-season franchise record with 11 victories following last Sunday's 24-10 win at Tennessee.
Schaub threw a pair of touchdown passes and Watt had two sacks along with his 14th and 15th passes defensed, giving him more than twice as many as any other defensive lineman. "He's an incredible player," Brady said. "He does pretty much everything for them." Belichick joked that the Patriots would use brooms in practice to simulate Watt's long arms. The Texans may need their pass rush to disrupt Brady given the injuries in their secondary, with cornerback Brice McCain out and All-Pro Johnathan Joseph day to day after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. Linebacker Brooks Reed (groin) remains out, although Bradie James (hamstring) may return following a one-game absence.
Houston has allowed an average of 352.0 passing yards the last three weeks, a troubling trend before facing New England's high-powered attack. "It's Monday and it's scary so I'm sure it's going to be real scary getting toward the end of the week," Kubiak said at the beginning of the week. "We know we're going to play a great player and one of the top passing games in the business for a long, long time." The Patriots' offense was relatively quiet last weekend, but the team still beat Miami 23-16 to clinch its ninth division title in 10 years. Brady threw his first interception in six games and the Patriots gained a season-low 321 yards, but their 26th-ranked defense held the Dolphins to 277.
"When (the) offense struggles, it's a chance for us to showcase how special we are on the defensive end," tackle Vince Wilfork said. "Offense is OK to have a bad game here and there. They've done so much for us and one thing we want to do around here is we always want to play as a team." With New England already adjusting to tight end Rob Gronkowski's absence, wide receiver Julian Edelman was lost for the season last week due to a foot injury. The Patriots re-signed receiver Donte' Stallworth on Tuesday. Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez, though, may continue to pick up the slack. That duo combined for 20 catches and 200 yards against Miami, and Welker is back on top of the NFL with 92 receptions.
The last time the Patriots faced Houston, Welker tore his left ACL and MCL in a 34-27 loss in Week #17 of the 2009 season. That game meant little to a New England team that had already clinched the East. Monday's contest is very significant if the Patriots hope to secure a first-round bye and perhaps home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. A win would pull them within one game of Houston while also giving them the tiebreaker, while a loss would all but lock up the No. 1 seed for the Texans, who would then have victories over all the other division leaders in the conference.
"This game is hugely important to our season," Brady said. "It's an AFC opponent that's 11-1.... I think for us as a team, there's not really much more you could ask for than that: to play Monday Night Football in December against one of the best teams in the National Football League and see what we're capable of." The Patriots are 10-1 in their last 11 Monday night contests, with the wins coming by an average of more than 20 points. And are an amazing 20-0 SU during the second-half of the season since 2010, +51 in net turnovers (57-6) in those games.
*PREGAME NOTES: According to our database here at StatSystems Sports, we learn that not only is Bill Belichick 21-12 ATS at Gillette Stadium the last four games of the season (19-7 ATS when not favored by 11 or more points), Tom Brady weighs in with a 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS mark under the Monday Night lights versus a less-than 1.000 opponent, including 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS when the Patriots own a .640 or higher win percentage. It also reminds us that: NFL teams playing their 3rd straight road game, the last being a SU division win, are just 15-36 ATS since 1980. And when a squad ventures into Foxborough on a 3rd consecutive road game, the Patriots have gone 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS if they?re off a win of 6 or more points. Meanwhile, HC Gary Kubiak is only 3-7 ATS away in a season?s last four games and his squad has lived on the edge lately, going 1-3 ITS (In The Stats) in their last four contests.
* HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
------------------------------
--NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992.
--3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 versus the first half line when playing against HOUSTON since 1992.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
?MATCHUP POWER TRENDS
------------------------------
--HOUSTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 19.3, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 1*)
--HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 13.9, OPPONENT 17.8 - (Rating = 1*)
--HOUSTON is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 7.3, OPPONENT 18.0 - (Rating = 1*)
--HOUSTON is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 6.4, OPPONENT 17.0 - (Rating = 1*)
--HOUSTON is 1-8 against the 1rst half line (-7.8 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 9.1, OPPONENT 15.7 - (Rating = 1*)
--HOUSTON is 15-3 UNDER (+11.7 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 8.5, OPPONENT 10.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 23.4, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 1*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 24.4, OPPONENT 20.9 - (Rating = 1*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 36.1, OPPONENT 20.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 10.9, OPPONENT 8.3 - (Rating = 3*)
?SITUATIONAL POWER TRENDS
----------------------------------
--HOUSTON is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 18.9, OPPONENT 17.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--HOUSTON is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 26.3, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--HOUSTON is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 18.9, OPPONENT 17.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--HOUSTON is 12-2 against the 1rst half line (+9.8 Units) versus the 1rst half line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 14.7, OPPONENT 8.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 15.0, OPPONENT 7.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--HOUSTON is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 13.6, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--HOUSTON is 8-20 against the 1rst half line (-14.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 7.0, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 36.9, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 3*)
?COACHING TRENDS
-----------------------
--Kubiak is 26-11 OVER (+13.9 Units) the 1rst half total off a division game as the coach of HOUSTON.
The average score was HOUSTON 12.5, OPPONENT 12.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--Belichick is 99-65 ATS (+27.5 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 26.5, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--Belichick is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) off a division game as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 27.5, OPPONENT 18.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--Belichick is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) in the second half of the season as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 23.7, OPPONENT 10.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--Belichick is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 29 or more points/game in the second half of the season as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 22.9, OPPONENT 17.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--Belichick is 33-17 against the 1rst half line (+14.3 Units) in December games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 15.9, OPPONENT 7.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--Belichick is 32-15 OVER (+15.5 Units) the 1rst half total in the last 4 weeks of the regular season as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 15.9, OPPONENT 8.0 - (Rating = 2*)
?BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 42.1
The average score in these games was: Team 20.2, Opponent 17.7 (Total points scored = 37.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 13 (39.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (49-29).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (118-102).
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night?s showdown between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots.
Offense
Houston, which is averaging 33.7 points over its last three games, is fourth in the league in total offense; the Patriots are first. The Texans boast a well-balanced attack led by RB Arian Foster, who leads the NFL with 15 touchdowns and the AFC with 1,102 yards rushing. Top receiver Andre Johnson is tied for fourth in the NFL with 1,114 yards receiving and is alone in fourth in the AFC with 74 catches.
New England tops the league in scoring at 35.8 points (more than six better than runner-up Houston) but had its second-lowest offensive output in last week's 23-16 win at Miami. Tom Brady was sacked four times and threw only his fourth interception. The Patriots will once again be without the services of Rob Gronkowski (forearm) but have Aaron Hernandez, who caught eight passes for 97 yards last week versus the Fish, to fill in.
Edge: Patriots
Defense
The Texans are without CB Brice McCain, their best slot defender, due to a broken foot and could march out top corner Johnathan Joseph at less than 100 percent. Joseph missed the last two games due to a tender hamstring and won?t get any favors from the cold and wet conditions expected to hit Gillette Stadium Monday night. Despite a beat up secondary, Houston has one of the toughest defenses in the league against the run and boasts pass-rush threat J.J. Watt.
New England's secondary was vulnerable to big plays early in the season and has allowed the fourth most yards passing in the NFL. But it has improved since Devin McCourty moved from cornerback to safety for the past six games and Aqib Talib was acquired from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Edge: Texans
Special teams
Rookie returner Keshawn Martin, who inherited duties on both kickoffs and punts after the Texans released Trindon Holliday after Week 5, is fourth in the league in punt-return average at 14.3 yards, and 21st in kickoff returns (24.1).
The Patriots special teams will suffer without Julian Edelman, who will be sidelined with a season-ending foot injury. Edelman split time as the third receiver this year and was a terror on special teams. He had 21 receptions, three touchdowns and also a 68-yard punt return for a touchdown. The loss of Edelman could mean a heavier workload for Wes Welker as a punt returner. Welker filled in for three weeks earlier this season when Edelman missed time with a hand injury.
Edge: Texans
Word on the street
?I think he?s extremely athletic for such a big man. Heck, I just left a special teams meeting and watched him rush a punter. There?s no telling how he?s going to be involved in the game, but he?s a huge factor week in and week out. He plays all over the place, so all of our guys will probably go against him upfront somehow, someway because of the many places that he plays." -- Texans head coach Gary Kubiak on Patriots DT Vince Wilfork.
"They're a very well-balanced team. If you're stopping the run, you're light on the play-action (passing attack). If you're stopping the play-action, you're probably light on the run. They do a good job of tying those plays together, complementing each other and making you defend all of it." -- Patriots head coach Bill Belichick on the Houston offense.
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Offense
Houston, which is averaging 33.7 points over its last three games, is fourth in the league in total offense; the Patriots are first. The Texans boast a well-balanced attack led by RB Arian Foster, who leads the NFL with 15 touchdowns and the AFC with 1,102 yards rushing. Top receiver Andre Johnson is tied for fourth in the NFL with 1,114 yards receiving and is alone in fourth in the AFC with 74 catches.
New England tops the league in scoring at 35.8 points (more than six better than runner-up Houston) but had its second-lowest offensive output in last week's 23-16 win at Miami. Tom Brady was sacked four times and threw only his fourth interception. The Patriots will once again be without the services of Rob Gronkowski (forearm) but have Aaron Hernandez, who caught eight passes for 97 yards last week versus the Fish, to fill in.
Edge: Patriots
Defense
The Texans are without CB Brice McCain, their best slot defender, due to a broken foot and could march out top corner Johnathan Joseph at less than 100 percent. Joseph missed the last two games due to a tender hamstring and won?t get any favors from the cold and wet conditions expected to hit Gillette Stadium Monday night. Despite a beat up secondary, Houston has one of the toughest defenses in the league against the run and boasts pass-rush threat J.J. Watt.
New England's secondary was vulnerable to big plays early in the season and has allowed the fourth most yards passing in the NFL. But it has improved since Devin McCourty moved from cornerback to safety for the past six games and Aqib Talib was acquired from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Edge: Texans
Special teams
Rookie returner Keshawn Martin, who inherited duties on both kickoffs and punts after the Texans released Trindon Holliday after Week 5, is fourth in the league in punt-return average at 14.3 yards, and 21st in kickoff returns (24.1).
The Patriots special teams will suffer without Julian Edelman, who will be sidelined with a season-ending foot injury. Edelman split time as the third receiver this year and was a terror on special teams. He had 21 receptions, three touchdowns and also a 68-yard punt return for a touchdown. The loss of Edelman could mean a heavier workload for Wes Welker as a punt returner. Welker filled in for three weeks earlier this season when Edelman missed time with a hand injury.
Edge: Texans
Word on the street
?I think he?s extremely athletic for such a big man. Heck, I just left a special teams meeting and watched him rush a punter. There?s no telling how he?s going to be involved in the game, but he?s a huge factor week in and week out. He plays all over the place, so all of our guys will probably go against him upfront somehow, someway because of the many places that he plays." -- Texans head coach Gary Kubiak on Patriots DT Vince Wilfork.
"They're a very well-balanced team. If you're stopping the run, you're light on the play-action (passing attack). If you're stopping the play-action, you're probably light on the run. They do a good job of tying those plays together, complementing each other and making you defend all of it." -- Patriots head coach Bill Belichick on the Houston offense.
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I challenge anyone to read this entire encyclopedic thread and not learn anything.
Great stuff sir
Great stuff sir
Senor Capper, Best of Luck Buddy. I have missed your write ups and collaboration of picks as I have been away for a long time starting a new business. I like your play tonight. Good Luck!
