Drew Gordon
1. 300,000♦ 76ers
2. 50,000♦ William & Mary
3. 50,000♦ Western Kentucky
1. 76ers- While the public jumps all over what appears to be a favorable line for the Celtics, sharp bettors know not to underestimate a 76ers squad that's been money at home, going 9-1 SU & 10-0 ATS over their last 10 at the Wachovia Center! Sorry-Celtics backers, but the fact of the matter remains, Philly has been excellent at home, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the 76ers won outright here, but let me explain further...
76ers are perfect example of a team who's found their rhythm... Take for example their last home game, a 117-83 rout of the Bucks, where 7 Philly players scored in double figures! Andre Iguodala scored 18 points, but it was Samuel Dalembert who lead the team with 22 points and 13 boards! In other words, its a complete team effort and the results are apparent: 9-1 SU & 10-0 ATS over their last 10 home games speaks for itself!
I know a lot of critics are pointing to the last meeting between these two teams, a 116-89 Celtics blowout win at the Garden. But if you actually saw the game, you know that contest was closer than the final score. Philly trailed by only 5 points after 3 quarters (after leading at halftime), when Boston dropped 38 points in the 4th quarter, thanks in large part to an incredible barrage of 3-pointers. This time around the 76ers are not only at home, playing much better basketball, but also facing a Celtics team which hasn't been nearly as good ATS of late.
Finally, its hard to ignore the 76ers red-hot play of late, averaging a scorching 111 ppg on 53% shooting (43% from 3-point) over their last 5 games! They've been torching defenses left and right, and while the Celtics D is formidable, they're not nearly as good on the road. Philly is one of the hottest teams in the East, playing in a place they've covered 10 straight times... Play here is squarely on the 76ers.
Take the 76ers plus the points over the Celtics as your top-rated play of the day.
2. William & Mary- As much as I loved George Mason last season, they're in for trouble in tonight's CAA Title Game and here's why:
First and foremost, this is not the same Patriots team as last year. They aren't sneaking up on anyone, and defensively, I'm really not impressed by their growth from season to season. George Mason is allowing 70 ppg on 46% shooting on the highway this season... Not nearly good enough to cover against a suddenly surging Tribe squad.
Have to admit a bit surprised by William & Mary, especially with their impressive outright win over VCU 56-54 Sunday as a 12-point dog! In hindsight, its another example of a team peaking a precisely the right time, combining their perimeter based attack with a very fundamental and focused defense. In the CAA Tourney the Tribe are holding their opponents to 57 ppg on just 40% shooting!
So how does William & Mary keep this one within the number? Defense, plain and simple. The Patriots offense has been less than impressive on neutral courts, scoring about 68 ppg on 45% shooting, which is decent, but not good enough to make up for their deficiencies on the defensive end. In fact, the Tribe's offense has actually improved in the CAA tourney (peaking at the right time), averaging 63 ppg on an impressive 48% shooting!
Bottom line, these two teams are a lot closer than the guys in Vegas want you to believe. True, George Mason may have the best two players on the court in Campbell and Thomas, but the better overall team is William & Mary right now, and it'll show in the final score. In the end, Patriots may win, but they have to fight for every last basket to do it.
Take William & Mary plus the points over George Mason in tonight's CAA Title Game.
3. Western Kentucky- While both these teams are playing well, there's no question the nod here goes to the Hilltoppers, who's superior offense and perimeter defense are more than enough to cover the number in this one.
It doesn't take a brain surgeon to see the Trojans will have trouble keeping pace in this contest, averaging 57 ppg on 37% shooting away this season. Granted, they were better in the Quarterfinals against Florida Atlantic, but there's a HUGE difference between FAU and Western Kentucky, namely 10 wins and better players at almost every position. Recall their only meeting this season, a 71-47 shellacking of the Trojans by this Hilltoppers squad, and you can easily see the disparity.
A lot people question the Western Kentucky defense, but when it comes to the perimeter, they're excellent, allowing 41% shooting, including 32% from beyond the arc! While its true they may run into trouble against bigger teams, in this case, their right at home against a perimeter-based, smallish team like Arkansas-Little Rock. Trojans already have issues scoring points, but against this defense, their problems only get pushed to the forefront (like in their last meeting).
We all know the Hilltoppers frontline is just for show, but their backcourt of Courtney Lee and Tyrone Brazelton is a good as it gets in the Sun Belt. They have a huge edge over a Trojans squad that has no real "go-to" guy. In other words, Arkansas-Little Rock's balance may just be their downfall here tonight. Smith and Moore are decent players, but on a neutral court, against a far superior team, they're in over their heads in this one. Hilltoppers roll!
Take Western Kentucky BIG over Arkansas-Little Rock in this Sun Belt Tourney Semifinals match up.
