Monday April 30th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Monday April 30th 2007

yesterday: took a beating. I knew playing so many would catch up to me. Flippin' Twins could have at least won?and what's with the Yanks not ripping Tavarez a new a-hole? Went 3-3 on the moneyline, at least (1-2 totals). System sides did go 8-6 overall.
2007: pretty much even on the year, now, after being up 16 units about a week ago. Think I started to feel a little invulnerable the way things were going; thinking I could go 5-1 on the moneyline everyday. I'm going to try to pick my poison a little more carefully from now on.
Still gonna use my system; I've been working on it for years, it's easy and fun to use, and it's had success for me. This year is the first I've really tried to use it for totals, and the results have been iffy (43-51 on posted system totals, so far). Umpire info has been helping me do well on totals, lately, so I'll try to keep passing that info along as I come across it.
I'll update my record in a bit.

System sides still 30-19 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Mil 59% (Wells-Suppan)
cubs 56 (Hill-Duke)
Atl 66 (-157)+4
Mets 64 (-162)+2
Sd 74 (-245)+2
Lad 52 (+100)+2
Sf 60 (-140)+1
Det 65 (-151)+4
Tor 66 (-218)-3
laa 63 (-160)+1

Note: Mets were at 69% until I heard about Hernandez' shoulder problems; apparently he had an MRI due to pain; he's still not 100% in for this game; # (64%) reflects a Hernandez start (vs Olsen) in his present condition; I dropped it 5%, not sure how to react to such news. Should be a keep-away at current price, maybe, not that I've been impressed with Olsen's work in '07 (Mets lead league vs lefties). Over, maybe, but 1 stinkin' run for the Mets yesterday? System calls an under 9.5 (62%).

system totals

phil@Atl un8.5 61% (-105)+9
fla@Mets un9.5 62 (-135)+4 (too pricey)
balt@Det un8.5 66 (-120)+11
laa@Kc ov9 61 (-105)+9

No system sides again (Braves & Tigers are very close); this is the first time in 2007 with back-to-back days of no system sides.

I'd be smart to take today off, and start May fresh.
Still?lotsa high numbers today (%-wise).

Really like the cubs-Pirates game to under (8, maybe?) as neither club is really hitting lefties well this year (cubs OPS .644, Pitt OPS .651 ? league average will be about .730-.740).
System calls for
cubs@Pitt un8 64% (-110?)+11

Would look even better at an 8.5 (surely won't see 9?think I'd pass at 7.5)

Signing off for now
Mike

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Think I might give this one a try...

Padres -1.5 62% (-107)+10

That's actually a system play, too, with a value indicator of +10.

62% isn't half-bad, either.

Patterson has been a joke, and I currently have Peavy as my highest rated starting pitcher (Santana and Hudson are close, as is Cain and Halladay -- Snell,Maine,Haren,Harden & Beckett are all a notch down from there).

After today, I'm going to re-assess my bullpen numbers; they're important to my 'capping.
Gonna have a full month's worth of numbers, all-round.
System numbers have been okay, but I'm expecting greater accuracy with each passing game...only makes sense.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

another RL

another RL

Braves -1.5 51% (+135)+8

Not as much value as the Pads RL.

Not nearly the % either (62 vs 51).

Lieber has been good since returning to the rotation, and Philly has been scoring, lately.

Still...Hudson has been phenomenal.

Funny, I've been on the right side of many a phenomenal pitching performance that ends up in a LOSS---Hudson's last beauty, Cain's work vs D'Backs, etc, ad nauseum

This is why I need fresh bullpen numbers.

This is why I need to catch some flippin' breaks.

Holy mackeral!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Completing the runline scenario...

Tigers -1.5 50 (+145)+9
Jays -1.5 53 (-105)+1

Some value on the Tigers RL, but Jays are too costly all-round, today (Padilla great work in his two starts vs Jays, too).

Gonna have a puff,
Have a shower,
and contemplate my dilemma.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

burned down endlessly

burned down endlessly

the Peavy start (16K, 2 hits through 7)--BP blows it to lose 3-2 to flippin' D'Backs

I almost forgot that one

(was reminded as looking at Peavy numbers currently)

Watch Patterson throw a gem today.
:com:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Detroit

in Detroit

Bonderman has only walked 4 batters this year, in 34 IP (whip 1.06).
Pretty impressive.
Also, no homers allowed at home in 13 IP (era 2.77, whip 0.77!)

He'll look to bounce back after his only tough outing of the year, at the Angels (11 hits and 5 er through 6 IP -- 8 K's too).
His record is 0-0, but Tigers have lost 4 of 5 starts, including his last 3.
Under is 4-1 in Bonderman starts.

Cabrera nothing special but threw a nice 7 innings vs Detroit on April 9th, in Baltimore, getting his only W in a 6-2 game.

Hard to pass on the Tigers with them just beating Santana.

If that figures in at all.

With Carmona shutting down the Orioles yesterday, in a hitters park, I don't think the O's are going to tee-off today, now in a pitcher's park.

Question is on Cabrera, as far as the total goes.
He was good in his only road start, at Minny, losing 3-2 for his 7 IP (6 hits, 3 ER, 9K).
Last start he walked 5 and allowed 5 hits through 6.2 vs Boston, still only allowing 3 runs -- Bosox won 6-1.
Scores in Cabrera starts have totalled 5, 8, 10, 9, then 7.
He's a career 3-0 vs Tigers in 5 starts.
In 3 starts at Comerica, he's 2-0 with a 5.63 era (16 IP, 16 hits, 1 HR, 8 BB, 13 K).

Under (66%) is a little cheaper than the Tigers (65%).

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Dodger Stadium

at Dodger Stadium

under 7.5 59% (-125)+3

too low a total, on this matchup, for any value

Dodgers will need a long outing from Wolf, after yesterday's 17-inning game.
Don't know if he's capable.
In 5 starts he's gone 6 innings each time.
He also just gave up 5 earned runs in his last, at home to the Giants.

Waaaayyy pass on this total.

D'Backs have been playing good ball.
And Webb has been pitching better last couple.

I hate the D'Backs.
They've cost me huge.
They'd be my only play, for this game, though.
I just don't trust their hitting.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

behold

behold

PLAYS

system sides

Padres -1.5 -107 2.14/2

other sides

Braves -157 1.57/1
Tigers -151 1.51/1
Jays -1.5 -105 1.05/1

4-teamer
--Braves ml
--Padres ml
--Tigers ml
--Jays ml
+450
1/4.5

2-teamer
--Padres ml
--Angels ml
+140
1/1.4

2-teamer
--Padres ml
--Jays ml
+105
2/2.1

I can't bring myself to play any totals today.
Leans are philly@Atlanta under 8.5, orioles@Tigers under 8.5, and angels@Royals over 9.
Team total leans are the obvious ones in philly under 4, the nationals under 3, and rangers under 4. Angels over 5.5 is kind of high?they may not need that to win, here. Another temptation, nonetheless, although Perez is coming in off of 2 straight W's, both vs Twins.

Still might play cubs@Pitt under?if it ever flippin' opens.

Still tempted by the D'Backs.

The way things have been going for me, you might want to take a look at the Nationals moneyline.
To let you know the kind of mood I'm in, today?
?yesterday I also had the Mavs, Sabres, and Canucks.

May your day be less stress-filled than mine.


Not Fade Away