monday notes & refs

[wigs]

put a lot of dallas info in fatdaddy's thread--

pens
lots of new faces in the lineup for the pens, revamping the third and fourth lines with their recent acquistions--

http://www.post-gazette.com/penguins/20020318pens0318p3.asp

hedberg probable goalie according to both papers

Penguins are 3-0 against this season and 11-0 against the Thrashers all-time

also: "Defenseman Darius Kasparaitis was excused from practice yesterday for personal reasons. ? Kehoe is hopeful that center Robert Lang (broken bone, left hand) will return to the lineup today after missing the past five games. Lang practiced yesterday. ?It depends on how he feels today (at the morning skate),? Kehoe said. ? Aleksey Morozov (bruised neck) practiced yesterday and is expected to play. Morozov left Saturday?s game at 8:20 of the third period after taking a high stick from Aaron Miller. ? Jan Hrdina was rested for practice but is expected to play tonight.

also in min/cal tonight, got this off min web site, something to consider:The contest against Calgary will mark the first time in franchise history the Minnesota Wild have played back-to-back games at Xcel Energy Center.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

wigs, what do you think about the dallas/chicago game...???

they're my FOCUS tonite...LOL

 

[wigs]

right now, surprised to see it at -130 chi ML, dallas still gets tons of respect on the road from vegas and they should i guess since they play much better on the road, but chi at home this yr is tough to beat, i cant recite the record off the top of my head but its something like 23-5-4 or so. and 11-1-2 first game home off a road trip if i not mistaken. tough numbers to ignore. all the buzz in dallas about trades can work two ways, they are either distracted and lose focus or come together. while i think the stars are a very savvy group and will stay focused here, i cannot see the value in backing them on the road at only +110 or so against chi at home. chi did have a tough road trip playing western conf foes and therefore playing some tough, physical games, but they could get thomas back in the lineup and that should be followed to see if he plays...dont bet against stars much unless they are heavy faves, but wont play stars tonight, hope they win but wouldnt bet on it. will try to stay updated until gametime--later

 

[wigs]

refs

refs

so far these are available:

Min/Cal- Stephen Walkom & Scott Zelkin
TB/Phi- Bill McCreary 33-23 ov/un 5.73 gpg & Morton (only ref in 5 games so far, home teams 5-0)
Mon/Car- Terry Gregson, & Mike Hasenfratz
Pit/Atl- Angus(25-27 5.16 gpg & Maguire 33-14 o/u 5.82 gpg)
dal/chi-Larue (home teams 39-19 ats 25-29 o/u 5.05 gpg & watson 22-24 o/u 5.04 gpg
sj/la-fraser 28-31 ov/un 5.40 gpg & heyer 22-32 o/u 4.74 gpg

 

[wigs]

min-as mentioned earlier, first ever back to back at excel center in min for the wild--Wild is 3-8-1 in the second of back-to-back games. . . . Centers Sergei Zholtok and Wes Walz are out because of shoulder injuries. Defenseman Filip Kuba is skating but still isn't ready to return from a broken hand
Brad Bombardir sat out Sunday's game because of a a sore right ankle, the same ankle he fractured in October.

 

[Terryray]

Dallas at Chicago

Dallas at Chicago

Morning gents!

Dallas is 18-12-4 away
Chicago is a nice 23-6-4 at home

Teams have met twice this season. A 2-2 tie at Dallas (10/20), and Chi won at home 3-2 (1/20). Belfour/Thibault in both of those, as tonight--Stars official site sez Belfour will start, Thibault got last start off.

Belfour is 8-5-3 all time vs his former team, with 1.96 gga, .916 save pct

Thibault is 7-7-3 vs Dallas, 2.55 gga, .897 pct.

Chicago is 7-0-1 in first home game after a multiple-game road trip this season. That includes victories over Dallas and Detroit.
and over has hit 6-1-1 in this situation.

Dallas is now tied with Vancouver, after Canuck's OT win last night, in W Conf for final playoff spot.

Chicago is only 3 pts ahead of 5th place LA. This fourth spot will secure them important home ice advantage in first round of playoffs.

Dallas 5-3-2 last 10, and 1-0-2 on current road trip, ending tonight.
Chicago is 3-5-2 last 10, and 3-2 last 5 at home.


AP sez "The Blackhawks totaled just five goals in the four games, and have scored two goals or fewer in seven of the last eight games. "

Chi PK has jumped to 100% last five. Good thing, Dallas PP has jumped to 25% last 5.

Dallas is 14-7 ATS this season avenging a home loss vs opponent

Belfour over is 13-7 on road, Thibault over hits 13-11 at home
Chicago under has hit 6-1 last seven.

..........................................................................................

I'm liking the over, and thegreek prop "will game end in a tie?" yes +420.

 

[wigs]

great odds on the tie, like that bet T-Ray at +420

 

[Terryray]

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia

TB is 10-19-4 away
Phila is 16-13-3 at home

teams have met three times this season, Phila winning all. 2-1 on road (11/8-Boucher/Khabib), 2-0 at home (12/1-Weekes/Chech), and 4-2 on road (3/8-Boucher/Khabib).

phillyburgs.com sez Boucher starts tonight. I would expect Khabib, tho he played last nite in OT game, but:

Khabibulin may play rest of games
By DAMIAN CRISTODERO, Times Staff Writer
? St. Petersburg Times
published March 7, 2002
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA -- If you thought goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin was busy before, you ain't seen nothing yet.

With the trade Tuesday night of goalie Kevin Weekes to the Hurricanes for right wing Shane Willis and left wing Chris Dingman, coach John Tortorella said Khabibulin may play the rest of Tampa Bay's 20 games, though he hedged on the three remaining back-to-back pairings

...............................................................................................................................................

TB is 4-5-1 last 10, and 2-0-2 last four
Phila is 4-5-1 last 10, and 0-4 last four at home

Phila outplayed Ahvs big time in last loss, except in goaltending.

this by Rob Parent in decotimes.com

Three hours and four blown power plays later, the Flyers shrugged off a 2-1 loss to the Colorado Avalanche with a cry of consolation -- gosh, that legend was good today.

"It's frustrating," said Brian Boucher, who has allowed seven goals in his last four starts and is 0-3-1 in that span. "Patrick Roy played great. He showed why he is still the best goalie in the world. We've been playing good defense. We're just not scoring."

That defines the backsliding Flyers, who outshot the Avalanche by 37-18 and had nothing but the nasty memory of a tip-in goal with 4:36 left to play by somebody named Ville Nieminen to show for it. It dropped the Flyers (37-20-7-3, 84 points) into a tie for the East lead with Boston

...................................................................................

TB is 2-7-1 on 0 days rest. no idea on 0 days after hitting road night before just after hard-fought OT tie.

Phila is 21-13-3 on 1 day, 9-3-1 after a loss.

TB is 1-13-6 all time at Phila, being outscored 63-31 in last 20 overall by Phila.


TB is 10 points from playoff spot. But playing well of late, gutsy and agressive last night.

...................................................................................................
more here from Bob Parent:

Four straight losses at home for the first time since 1989-90.

A .500 record over the last six weeks which has vaporized their Eastern Conference lead.

Four straight games in which they've scored one goal.

A nifty oh-for-4 on the power play yesterday, which translates to one for their last 26, five for their last 54 and 66 for 243 (13.1 percent), which likely drops them to 28th in the league ahead of only Atlanta and Anaheim

........................................................................................................


Phila is 6-4 ATS as a home favorite of 1 goal or more
TB is 4-2 ATS as a road dog of 1 goal or more. don't know the 1.5. gotta keep my own records some day.....

Phila is 14-5 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite
TB is 9-11 ATS revenging a homeloss vs opponent

 

[Terryray]

line on TB just jumped +290 to +310. Maybe Khabib is out.

but guy I read said move came over few hours, so then would just be all that Philly money coming in. Maybe all those upset CBB bettors looking for a "do or die bet" to recover bankroll!

 

[fatdaddycool]

wigs,

wigs,

gave jack my email for ya

 

[Rakman]

I can't confirm, but I hear that Dieter Kochan (NHL record:1-7-0, 3.80GGA) will get the start for TB tonight.

 

[wigs]

tampa tribune says that kochan is expected to get the start, but that is all i see right now also. thanks for the update guys!!

 

[PerpetualCzech]

Re: Chicago game ... -0.5 +115 is MUCH better value than -130 on the ML

 

[Terryray]

not a better value if you fear a tie!


in NHL of late:
3 OT last nite, 2 ties
3 OT sun, 2 ties sun
2 OT, 2 ties sat



Dallas has had 4 OT last 9, and 2 ties

Chicago-3 OT last six, two ties


and these teams have met twice this season, one was a tie.

 

[Terryray]

Montreal at Carolina

Montreal at Carolina

MTL 11-18-4 away
Carolina is 12-13-9 at home

teams have met three times this season. a 1-1 tie at Carolina (1/17-Hackett/Irbe), Carolina won 4-3 at MTL (3/2-Jose T/Irbe), and Habs won at home 3-2 (Jose T/Irbe) saturday.

Habs were outshot 33-22 sat, outplayed in first and third periods. But Theodore saved the day, as usual for them. Habs have been outshot avg 14 in past 5 games sez rvd.

Habs are 4-1 ATS last three seasons at Carolina

Habs 4-8 ATS after a win when away.
Carolina 8-20 ATS as a home favorite of 1/2 goal or less.

Carolina has been swept in both of their two home/away b/b series this season. WA and NYI, tho both second games went into OT, and one was at home.

Habs 4-4 last 8 on road.
'Canes 0-0-6 last 6 at home, one database sez this is new record in NHL history.


MTL is now sole owner of final playoff spot in E Conf. One point ahead of NYR with two games in hand.

Habs are starting four game road trip, with 'Canes being only winning team they face. FL wed, then TB and Nash.

'Canes next is at home against FL thurs.


under is 3-1-1 last five for MTL
under is 3-1-1 last five for 'Canes

under is 22-12 for Carolina as a favorite
under has hit 9-3 for Carolina at home with 5 line

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

as always, thanks for the info guyz...!!!



to answer further PerpetualCzech's statement:

Re: Chicago game ... -0.5 +115 is MUCH better value than -130 on the ML

yes, it is a BETTER value, but we've seen SOOOOOOO much stuff mess up with value and high price dogs NOT hitting the -0.5...

why not pay the little extra money to cover your ass in case anything messed up....?

i should know..if i didn't have the ML on some games, i'd be even FURTHER in the hole than i already am.....

 

[PerpetualCzech]

I think it makes more sense to look at the whole season rather than just the last 2 or 3 days. Ties are coming in at a rate of ~12% this season, same as last season. That means that you will make more money in the long run betting -0.5 +115 than betting money line at -130.

You can't make a judgement like this without referring to the numbers. Would you take a money line of -200 over a puck line of -0.5 +100 just to "cover your ass in case anything messed up?"

 

[fatdaddycool]

Czech,

Czech,

there is a case to be made on both sides, however, I guarantee that 12% will rise dramatically now toward the end of the season as goals are harder to come by now. Teams buckling down and a 1-1, 2-2, game becomes more the norm than the suprise.. Depends on how you look at it too. If you look at it from a losing perspective yes you stand to lose more money, but only on a SU loss, of which the Hawks only have 5 or 6 at home this year. Chances of them winning or tying therefore higher. The fact that it means only $15 to the plus side yet forfeit the push is not worth it in my view.

 

[PerpetualCzech]

+115 translates to a percentage of 47%. -130 translates to a percentage of 57%. That means that you need to believe that there is a better than 20% chance of the game tieing in order to justify betting the money line at -130. That's a very tough sell.

 

[fatdaddycool]

oK Czech

oK Czech

this is a sports forum not a math forum If'n I could do all that cipherin in me head I wouldn't have to bet.....lol