monday notes & refs

[Terryray]

some MN/Calgary stuff

some MN/Calgary stuff

good points P-Czech!. But I think it makes more sense to look at long term trends, -and- recent trends -and- matchup history. You find spots where that 12% is much higher, like now--or on certain teams, like MN or Carolina. Some spots it's predictably lower. You refine the longterm trend to discover more angles for moneymaking.


MN paper sez Fernandez to start most of games left for MN to help shake out his poor play........................................................http://www.startribune.com/stories/1330/2106030.html

MN 3-8-1 on 0 days rest, and 1-3 after a loss

Turek is 4-1-1 last 6, and given up just 14 goals in last 7.

MN is 3-11 ATS vs Division opponents
MN was 1-1-1 vs Calgary last season
one meeting this season at MN, Calgary won in OT.

Here that piece on Button saying Calgary must win tonight to stay alive in playoffs...........................................................http://www.canoe.ca/CalgarySports/cs.cs-03-18-0083.html

 

[PerpetualCzech]

TR,

Yes I'm a big believer in recent trends too but I don't see any here that would make me lean towards a tie in the Dall/Chic matchup. A few ties involving other teams doesn't hold much weight for me and one tie in 2 meetings between the 2 teams isn't enough of a sample space for me to pay attention.

Also, you seem to have picked out the streak for Dallas and Chicago specifically to show the highest possible tie and OT ratios. Yes, Dallas has tied 2 of their last 9 but if you go back further they have also tied only 3 of their last 30. Same with Chicago.

fatdaddycool came up with a possibility of ties increasing as the season progresses that may be interesting although my guess is that there will not be much of a difference. I'll see if I can come up with some numbers here to test this out.

 

[wigs]

dallas stars president jim lites just resigned, announced on 1310 ticket am...organization definitely going through some transitions--

 

[Terryray]

Ties are higher this part of season with playoff battles out there meaning even one point can make a difference.

Yeah, don't have the number. Ties in later part of season with teams fighting for spots. Need the numbers!

 

[PerpetualCzech]

OK, I got 'em.

Last year ties came at a rate of 12.4% for the whole league.

Now for "late in the year" I took this to mean the last 15 games out of the 82-game schedule. So for the 30 teams, this makes 450 "team-games". Out of these 450 games, 41 of them ended up in ties, for a rate of 9.1%, significantly lower than the rest of the season.

One possible reason for this is that teams which desperately need points to make the playoffs "go for it" more in OT since they have very little to lose (even if they get scored on they still get a point)

On a side note, I've always wondered why teams aren't more risky in OT all season long. If you think about it, an optimal strategy for OT would be for both teams to pull their goalie.

 

[Terryray]

Thanks P-C! but ideally, I'd like more refinement of data..

later games was later last year, the playoffs didn't heat up as early as this year.

and need numbers for the teams fighting for playoff spots, not the league as a whole.


and for more seasons than this or last. Clearly more ties are happening now, as opposed to last season. All that work would give us terrific trends to work with, and I'm not up to it!

Tho I do know that season-long tie pct has held pretty straight for nearly all years of late.

 

[Terryray]

some Pitt/ Atlanta notes

some Pitt/ Atlanta notes

Pitt won all three meetings this season. Pitt won previous seven too.

Pitt outscored Atl 13-7 this season, with 10 different players tallying those scores for Pitt.

Pitt is 4-6 last 10, and 1-4 last five. But nearly overcame 4 goal deficit last outing, against LA.
Atl is 3-6-1 last 10, and 1-1-1 in it's current home stand.

Pitt start a four game home stand next.
Atl start a four game road swing next. both teams do it on Wed.

 

[PerpetualCzech]

I'm not much up for it either right now! But if I do it eventually I'll be happy to post it.

I really do think it makes sense for ties to go down for teams fighting for playoff spots though. Put yourself in the position of a head coach that desperately needs points for the playoff race. You are tied going into OT with a point in your pocket already and another point up for grabs if you can score. Unless you are playing a team you are fighting with for the playoff spot, your best strategy really is to go ba!!s out to try and get that goal. There is very little risk and lots to gain with this strategy and it should result in your team winning or losing the game more often (and therefore less ties)

The preliminary data at least backs this theory up. BTW, here are the teams that tied the most from this data sample last year:

4 ties out of 15 games - Florida, Phoenix

3 ties out of 15 games - Montreal, Anaheim, Calgary, Vancouver, Minnesota

Phoenix and Vancouver are the only 2 teams out of the 7 that were involved in any serious playoff race.

 

[fatdaddycool]

turns out to be a tie after all

turns out to be a tie after all

I saw someone that played the tie at +420 who was that? someone did it wish I had

 

[Terryray]

I mentioned it as a terrific bet in my Dallas writeup above. Noticed the real possibiliy last night. Did I have enuf sense to take it? Need you ask! of course I didn't take it......i'm still learning.....

Three OT and three ties tonight--so far. and two of ties in the very obvious games that they should tie up. might hit this angle hard next few days.

but then angle will rapidly regress back to the 12% mean PerpetualCzech mentioned, and I'll be out more. it pays to be an optimist.....

 

[wigs]

well t-ray, tough break, but definitely keep us updated on those tie odds now with so many teams leapfroging from 5-9th, i agree, an angle to keep a look at--

 

[Terryray]

Tues I'm liking ties in Leafs/NYI and Ott/Buff. Maybe Phx/Bos. Have to look into it more. thegreek doesn't put up the props until game day.

 

[PerpetualCzech]

LOL, of course the game ends in a tie, what else did you expect?

But I would be very wary about jumping on this bandwagon without looking at the numbers ... so far the only numbers and theory that have been mentioned point the other way to LESS ties ...