Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Utah State
2. 50,000♦ Magic
3. 50,000♦ San Diego
1. Utah State- I know every bettors initial instinct screams: "revenge" in this spot for Nevada, which is absolutely true, having lost to Utah State 77-63 February 2nd in Logan. While I agree in principle, it's the margin I have a big issue with, as the Aggies have proven to be the cream of the WAC crop and will not lose this game by as much as Vegas wants you to believe.
First of all, the Aggies offense is far too efficient, led by Jaycee Carroll and Gary Wilkinson, to allow an average Nevada defense to extend the margin. The Aggies average 69 ppg on an outstanding 49% shooting on the road, thanks in large part to the excellent efficiency of both Carroll and Wilkinson, who dominated their match ups with the Wolfpack 9 days ago, and will dominate them once again tonight.
Second, while its true Utah State is just 2-6 ATS on the road, those very same numbers are the reason we're getting some value here in this game. In their last road game, they won outright 77-72 as 1'-point dogs at Fresno State. An impressive road win no doubt, but obviously not enough to convince odds makers the Aggies have turned the corner on the road. Look guys, I'm not saying Utah State wins outright here, but this game will be close.
Finally, not to harp on it, but this is conference game... Utah State is not going to take this game lightly. I believe their complicated screen-heavy offense can score against any WAC defense, especially one as relatively average as Nevada's. Wolfpack's blowout wins over San Jose State (bounce back win after Utah State loss) and Hawaii (bad road team) have helped artificially balloon the number on this contest, as the Nevada is being given too much credit in this spot.
Bottom line, expect a razor close competitive contest in this WAC showdown, with the winner coming late. Either way, Utah State grabs the cash against a Nevada team that had little success stopping their offense the first time around this season, and won't have enough tonight to cover either.
Take Utah State plus the points over Nevada as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Magic- Got to love the Magic in this spot, as they host a fatigued and short-handed Cavaliers squad tonight at home. Several strong trends in Orlando's favor, but none bigger than the fact the Cavs are 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games with no rest! Lebron James may be able to handle the fatigue, but his supporting cast of veterans simply cannot, and playing their 4th game in 5 nights right after playing the high-octane Nuggets won't help!
What's worse is the Cavs come into this game with some serious question marks, including the status of Gibson (Hamstring), Gooden (groin), and Ilgauskas (back). They're already without the high-energy Varejao, who would have filled in nicely if either Gooden or Ilgauskas can't go, but not with his left ankle sprain.
Also, considering the fatigue and the injuries, how can you possibly expect much from this Cavaliers offense tonight, averaging just 92 ppg on the road this season. They were terrible against the Nuggets last night at home, as James (with a little help from Hughes) was the only Cavalier to play with any energy. While Orlando's defense hasn't been great of late, they're good enough to stop the Cavs in their current state.
Finally, the key to the Magic's offense is the inside/out game with Dwight Howard. So, with Ilgauskas hurting, Gooden hurting, and Varejao out, who guards Howard? Look down the Cavs roster, and you'll quickly find, either one of those guys is going to have to play at less than 100%, or the the Cavs will be in big trouble... Either option is a bad one.
Bottom line, the Magic rout a tired and short-handed Cavs team in Orlando tonight. They're home loss to Lakers 3 days ago, only serves to motivate this Magic team even more tonight. Magic roll in this one!
Take the Magic at home BIG over the Cavaliers in this NBA match up.
3. San Diego- While recent match ups between these two teams have been close, I firmly believe the Dons are outmatched in a conference game that the Torreros must win if they are to keep pace with the St. Mary's and Gonzaga's of the world.
Over their last 3 home games, the Dons have lost to Holy Cross (non-lined contest) in OT 67-63, to St. Mary's by 22 points as 10-point dogs, and to Santa Clara by 18 points as 1-point dogs... Are you starting to see a pattern? The Dons could care less about their meaningless season, and it shows with pathetic efforts at home of late. While on the other hand, San Diego obviously needs to keep the conference wins coming, making for a huge gap in motivation tonight.
Several fundamental problems with the Dons, including the fact after their 4th leading scorer, the production drops off the face of the Earth (from Cavic's 9 ppg to Taylor's 3.9 ppg). Second, their point guard is a turnover machine, as Quezada's 94 turnovers on the season are ridiculous. And finally, while their scoring is decent at home (66 ppg on 43% shooting), they also allow 72 ppg on a mind-boggling 51% shooting there this season!
Finally, the last time these two teams played, a 46-41 San Diego home win, point guard Brandon Johnson had one of his worst games of the season. He's the catalyst for this Torreros offense, which is why they scored only 46 points in that game. Rest-assured, even on the road, Johnson will do much better this time around, as the Torreros notch another conference win, all while grabbing the cash in the process tonight!
Take San Diego comfortably over San Francisco in this WCC match up.
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Utah State
2. 50,000♦ Magic
3. 50,000♦ San Diego
1. Utah State- I know every bettors initial instinct screams: "revenge" in this spot for Nevada, which is absolutely true, having lost to Utah State 77-63 February 2nd in Logan. While I agree in principle, it's the margin I have a big issue with, as the Aggies have proven to be the cream of the WAC crop and will not lose this game by as much as Vegas wants you to believe.
First of all, the Aggies offense is far too efficient, led by Jaycee Carroll and Gary Wilkinson, to allow an average Nevada defense to extend the margin. The Aggies average 69 ppg on an outstanding 49% shooting on the road, thanks in large part to the excellent efficiency of both Carroll and Wilkinson, who dominated their match ups with the Wolfpack 9 days ago, and will dominate them once again tonight.
Second, while its true Utah State is just 2-6 ATS on the road, those very same numbers are the reason we're getting some value here in this game. In their last road game, they won outright 77-72 as 1'-point dogs at Fresno State. An impressive road win no doubt, but obviously not enough to convince odds makers the Aggies have turned the corner on the road. Look guys, I'm not saying Utah State wins outright here, but this game will be close.
Finally, not to harp on it, but this is conference game... Utah State is not going to take this game lightly. I believe their complicated screen-heavy offense can score against any WAC defense, especially one as relatively average as Nevada's. Wolfpack's blowout wins over San Jose State (bounce back win after Utah State loss) and Hawaii (bad road team) have helped artificially balloon the number on this contest, as the Nevada is being given too much credit in this spot.
Bottom line, expect a razor close competitive contest in this WAC showdown, with the winner coming late. Either way, Utah State grabs the cash against a Nevada team that had little success stopping their offense the first time around this season, and won't have enough tonight to cover either.
Take Utah State plus the points over Nevada as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Magic- Got to love the Magic in this spot, as they host a fatigued and short-handed Cavaliers squad tonight at home. Several strong trends in Orlando's favor, but none bigger than the fact the Cavs are 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games with no rest! Lebron James may be able to handle the fatigue, but his supporting cast of veterans simply cannot, and playing their 4th game in 5 nights right after playing the high-octane Nuggets won't help!
What's worse is the Cavs come into this game with some serious question marks, including the status of Gibson (Hamstring), Gooden (groin), and Ilgauskas (back). They're already without the high-energy Varejao, who would have filled in nicely if either Gooden or Ilgauskas can't go, but not with his left ankle sprain.
Also, considering the fatigue and the injuries, how can you possibly expect much from this Cavaliers offense tonight, averaging just 92 ppg on the road this season. They were terrible against the Nuggets last night at home, as James (with a little help from Hughes) was the only Cavalier to play with any energy. While Orlando's defense hasn't been great of late, they're good enough to stop the Cavs in their current state.
Finally, the key to the Magic's offense is the inside/out game with Dwight Howard. So, with Ilgauskas hurting, Gooden hurting, and Varejao out, who guards Howard? Look down the Cavs roster, and you'll quickly find, either one of those guys is going to have to play at less than 100%, or the the Cavs will be in big trouble... Either option is a bad one.
Bottom line, the Magic rout a tired and short-handed Cavs team in Orlando tonight. They're home loss to Lakers 3 days ago, only serves to motivate this Magic team even more tonight. Magic roll in this one!
Take the Magic at home BIG over the Cavaliers in this NBA match up.
3. San Diego- While recent match ups between these two teams have been close, I firmly believe the Dons are outmatched in a conference game that the Torreros must win if they are to keep pace with the St. Mary's and Gonzaga's of the world.
Over their last 3 home games, the Dons have lost to Holy Cross (non-lined contest) in OT 67-63, to St. Mary's by 22 points as 10-point dogs, and to Santa Clara by 18 points as 1-point dogs... Are you starting to see a pattern? The Dons could care less about their meaningless season, and it shows with pathetic efforts at home of late. While on the other hand, San Diego obviously needs to keep the conference wins coming, making for a huge gap in motivation tonight.
Several fundamental problems with the Dons, including the fact after their 4th leading scorer, the production drops off the face of the Earth (from Cavic's 9 ppg to Taylor's 3.9 ppg). Second, their point guard is a turnover machine, as Quezada's 94 turnovers on the season are ridiculous. And finally, while their scoring is decent at home (66 ppg on 43% shooting), they also allow 72 ppg on a mind-boggling 51% shooting there this season!
Finally, the last time these two teams played, a 46-41 San Diego home win, point guard Brandon Johnson had one of his worst games of the season. He's the catalyst for this Torreros offense, which is why they scored only 46 points in that game. Rest-assured, even on the road, Johnson will do much better this time around, as the Torreros notch another conference win, all while grabbing the cash in the process tonight!
Take San Diego comfortably over San Francisco in this WCC match up.
