Monday service Plays 4/14/08

the duke

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Savannah Sports

YTD = 15-8 +8.07

2 Units on Minnesota +139
2 Units on Cleveland -126
3 Units on LAA -114
2 Units on Oakland +144
2 Units on Kansas City
 

the duke

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INDIAN COWBOY

San Fran +112 (POD)


Just 1 play to start off the week, but I like it as it is principled on the fact that Randy Johnson comes off back surgery and to have him favored on the road against a Giants team that is starting to turn their bats around facing a talented Jonathan Sanchez at home seems a bit of a stretch here. Similar to Liriano who made his return from Tommy John and looked rusty on location and speed, it takes a while for a pitcher to get his mojo back so to speak and Johnson will struggle with location early on in live pitching. Combine that with the fact that the Giants have speed at the top of their lineup with the likes of Lewis and some pop with Molina further down, I look for the Giants who have been scoring more runs of late as evidenced in the Cardinals series to do well here. Besides, 70% of the public is riding the Diamondbacks and Johnson and they are human as they lost 13-5 to the Rockies in the last ballgame at home. I look for this game to go over, but more importantly, I like the Giants and Sanchez at home to start off the week. I have this game around a 6-3 final. The Dbacks are 2-6 ATS when Johnson is a road favorite and the Giants are 4-1 at home as dogs of +110 to +150.
 

the duke

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Ben Burns


I'm laying the price with CHICAGO. I played against the A's yesterday and they had their winning streak snapped. Now, they travel to Chicago to take on a Sox team which is coming off a momentum-building 11-0 win yesterday. Both teams faced lefthanders yesterday, which is worth mentioning as today's matchup features a pair of southpaws. The Sox entered yesterday's game averaging 5.7 runs per game against left-handers and promptly pounded veteran lefty Kenny Rogers for seven runs in four earnings. Conversely, the A's entered yesterday's game averaging 4.2 runs per game against southpaws and they managed a mere two hits (0 walks) in eight innings against left-hander Cliff Lee. Not only have the Sox been scoring more runs against southpaws, they've got a proven winner going up against an untested rookie here.

Greg Smith was solid his major league debut for Oakland as he lead the A's to an upset win at Toronto and allowed just three runs (2 earned) through six innings. However, a closer look shows that he had five walks during that span. For comparison, I glanced at Buehrle's last 20 home starts and he didn't allow more than three walks in any of them, often one or less.

Buehrle's ERA still looks really bad. However, that was from one bad opening start at Cleveland. He already bounced back with a gem last time out, holding the Tigers to two runs (1 earned) through seven complete innings. He's quietly been one of the most consistent pitchers in the American League over this millennium and its pretty safe to assume that his ERA will continue to steadily fall. While his numbers at Oakland aren't great, he's 3-3 with a stellar 2.76 ERA in seven starts and two relief appearances vs. the A's at U.S. Cellular Field. In fact, he's averaged better than 6 2/3 innings per start in his last six home games vs. the A's and has allowed two earned runs or less in five of those six starts. The most recent came here last May when he allowed just one (unearned) run through seven complete innings, outdueling Haren en route to a 3-2 Sox win.

The A's were complaining about the weather at Cleveland yesterday but they won't find any California weather here in Chicago. While he may eventually develop into a solid pitcher, Smith is a former sixth round pick who is currently in the rotation due to injuries to other starters, while Buehrle is Chicago's ace. I look for the veteran to outpitch the rookie as the Sox grab the opener and improve to 6-1 the last seven times they were a series host.

*Personal Favorite
White Sox
 

the duke

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Larry Ness

I had the Mariners in all three games against the Angels, winning the first two and getting a 'no play' when Bedard was a game time scratch (hip). I'll stick with the Mariners again tonight, as they host the Royals in the first game of this two-game set. The Royals are off to a solid 7-5 start in '08, led by their pitching staff. KC owns the best ERA in MLB at 2.58 and its bullpen ERA is 1.16, the best of any relief staff, as well. Zach Greinke is off to a 2-0 start, allowing just one ER in his 15 innings for an ERA of 0.60. However, let's step back a minute. Greinke was a hot prospect back in '04 and '05 but was just 13-28 with a 4.99 ERA in 57 starts (Royals were a pathetic 18-39 in those starts!). He was hurt almost all of '06 and then last year made just 14 starts in his 52 appearances, posting a 7-7 mark with a 3.69 ERA (Royals were 5-9 in his starts). So pardon me if I'm not ready to hand him the Cy Young award, just yet! Let's also not get too excited over the Royals as a team, especially on the road. Since the team went 83-79 in 2003 (which included a 49-39 road mark), the Royals have gone a disastrous 109-216 (.335) on the road the last four seasons. They are 4-2 on the road this year but that includes a three-game sweep at Detroit (everyone knows the Tigers opened the year 0-7) plus losing two of three at Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Mariners were MLB's second-biggest "moneymakers" in 2007, with a profit of $1,924 for the season (at $100/game). Most of those profits came at home, where they went 49-32 (plus-$1,355). Seattle just 'killed' left-handed pitching last season (28-13 and plus-$1,730), but has opened 0-2 vs lefties in 2008. Seattle is however, 4-1 at home this year when facing a right-handed starter, averaging a healthy 5.8 RPG. Lefty Jarrod Washburn gets the start for Seattle and after a mediocre start at Baltimore in his season debut (5 IP / 6 hits / 3 ERs in a 7-4 loss), he pitched very well last Wednesday at Tampa, going seven innings while allowing six hits and one ER in a 7-1 win. Washburn's been somewhat of a disappointment in his first two years with the Mariners but he has made 63 starts over the last two seasons, while giving Seattle almost 200 innings of work in each year. He's a solid 8-4 with a 3.36 ERA in 14 career stars vs KC (teams are 9-5) and the Royals have notably had trouble vs left-handers the past few years. They went 19-26 vs lefties last year which actually looks pretty good when you realize the team was just 30-74 vs lefties in the 2005 and 2006 seasons, combined (are 1-1 vs lefties to open '08). The Royals have only scored 38 runs in their 12 games, while the Mariners (in just one more game) have scored 61. Look for veteran left-hander Washburn to give them a solid start and for the Seattle bats to get to Greinke.

AL Game of the Week
15* Seattle Marine
rs
 

bolley

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This would ge great, I was trying to determine how to create a spreadshieet to log daily.
 

the duke

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Vegas Runner

vegas-runner | NBA Money Line Double-Dime Bet
501 IND (-130) Sportsbetting.com vs 502 WAS
Analysis: *** 2* TEASER PLAY of the DAY ***

INDIANA +10 & HOUSTON +15 (2*) Teaser Wager...


Mon, 04/14/08 - 9:05 PMvegas-runner | NBA Sides Double-Dime Bet
511 HOU 9.5 (-110) Bodog vs 512 UTA
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER **


Mon, 04/14/08 - 8:05 PMvegas-runner | NHL Money Line Single-Dime Bet
62 NAS (-125) SportBet vs 61 DET
Analysis: * 1* REGULATION WAGER *

NASHVILLE PREDATORS +1/2 (-125) (1*)


Mon, 04/14/08 - 10:05 PMvegas-runner | NHL Total Single-Dime Bet
64 COL / 63 MIN Under 5.0 BetUS
Analysis: * 1* TOTAL * (UNDER -115)


Mon, 04/14/08 - 10:10 PMvegas-runner | MLB Total Double-Dime Bet
902 LOS / 901 PIT Over 8.5 Bodog
Analysis: * 2* UPGRADED TOTAL * (OVER -120)....
would much rather lay -120 on Over 8.5, than get +105 on Over 9...


Mon, 04/14/08 - 10:15 PMvegas-runner | MLB Total Triple-Dime Bet
904 SFG / 903 ARI Under 8 BetUS
Analysis: *** 3* BEST BET of the DAY *** (UNDER -115)



Mon, 04/14/08 - 7:10 PMvegas-runner | MLB Total Single-Dime Bet
912 TAM / 911 NYY Under 9.5 Bodog
Analysis: * 1* TOTAL * (UNDER -105)


Mon, 04/14/08 - 7:05 PMvegas-runner | MLB Money Line Double-Dime Bet
905 BOS (+120) Bodog vs 906 CLE
Analysis: ** 2* ML WAGER **


Mon, 04/14/08 - 8:05 PMvegas-runner | MLB Money Line Double-Dime Bet
913 ANA (-115) SportBet vs 914 TEX
Analysis: ** 2* ML WAGER **
 
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Pepi

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Sorry fellas for not being able to post these picks everyday... This A.P. System of his he's doing is money for hockey! I'm gonna post his hockey spreads for ya guys... He was up 30 units last year in just hockey playoffs! so far he's up 2... So now's a good time to hop on him. I guess you have to bet exactly how he says to bet with the same units he says to bet or you wont make profit... And I noticed he dont change his units profit when he loses, only when he wins. He doubles down on his losses and gets up in like 3 days max. I guess one bet consist of 4 wagers. Confusing I know, i guess just follow!




Josh Dean

Way to hit that UNDER again boys! I can see the money rolling in! 2 out of 3 is off to a great start. Lets keep it rolling here!

Bet: 1
Todays Play: Pitt/Ott UNDER 5.5
Units to Wager: 1
Total Profit: 2.1

Ya, I started this system from the beginning and cashing in BIG thus far! Please keep posting these Deano's Free B!
 

Pepi

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Brandon Lang

MONDAY

100 DIME - UTAH JAZZ

Lang is crazy dude... Just wants to get his bankroll up. This pick would be a 25 dimer or something fairly high, just doing 100 because he sux and down a ton. Hope no one went all in. Even if this does cover... He's a lucky foo
 

splinter124

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superior wi
don't blow your wad on sebastian

don't blow your wad on sebastian

watch how you bet with sebastian i've had his service and one day he will hit big like yesterday going 11-1 with his comp play but usually follows up with a total collapse????? tonight 7-6 not bad looking at being ahead but if you play his system like he wants you to at $100 a star you would be down 150 stars tonight for a total of $15,000 plus the juice down in one night thats what i mean by not putting big money on him after a big winning day because this is what usually happens...
 
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splinter124

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superior wi
ats losers again

ats losers again

ats goes their second day in a row as losers having philly 76ers loss
red wings loss

0-2 great job ats :shrug:
 
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