THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Arizona (32-25) at Milwaukee (29-28)
The Brewers try to continue their winning homestand when they send veteran righty Jeff Suppan (3-4, 3.93 ERA) to the mound at Miller Park to take on the N.L. West-leading Diamondbacks and former Brewer Doug Davis (2-2, 4.57).
Milwaukee has won five of six games on this homestand, including Sunday?s 10-1 victory that capped a three-game weekend sweep of the Astros. Meanwhile, Arizona snapped a five-game losing streak with back-to-back wins Saturday (4-0) and Sunday (5-0) at home against the Nationals.
The Brewers took five of seven from Arizona last season and have won 10 of the last 14 series clashes in Milwaukee.
Davis is 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA on the road this season but got drilled in his last start, giving up six runs on nine hits in five innings of an 11-3 home loss to the Giants. Davis has only seen his former team twice in his career, both last season, and went 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA. He allowed a combined eight runs in eight innings of work. He got a no-decision in Arizona?s 5-2 road win in July, then took the loss in a 9-0 loss at home a month later.
Suppan has been brilliant at Miller Park, going 2-0 with a 0.93 ERA in four starts, including Wednesday?s eight-inning gem against Atlanta, as shutout the Braves on four hits in a 1-0 victory. In fact, Suppan has not allowed more than one earned run in any of his four home outings, with Milwaukee winning three of those contests.
For his career, Suppan is 2-3 with a 3.86 ERA in six starts covering 32 2/3 innings of work against Arizona. He faced the Diamondbacks back on Aug. 22 and gave up three runs in seven innings, but lost 3-2 in the desert. Arizona is 4-2 all-time in games in which Suppan has started.
Arizona is 15-6 in Davis? last 21 starts and 4-1 in his last five Monday outings. As a team, the DBacks are just 9-20 in their last 29 on the road against right-handed pitching, 2-8 in their last 10 on the road overall and 1-4 in their last five against the N.L. Central.
The Brewers are 7-1 in Suppan?s last eight at home but just 2-5 in his last seven overall and 1-6 the last seven times he?s pitched in a series opener. As a team, Milwaukee is on streaks of 50-21 against left-handed pitching, 5-1 on Mondays, 6-2 against the N.L. West and 5-2 in series openers.
The over is 10-2 in Davis? last 12 starts overall, 5-1 in his last six on the road and 7-0 in his last seven when going on four days? rest, but the under is 4-0-1 in Davis? last five on Mondays. Meanwhile, Suppan sports nothing but ?under? runs, including 6-0 in series openers, 4-0 against teams with a winning record, 4-0 at home and 5-0 overall.
For the Brewers as a team, the under is on runs of 6-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 8-1-1 against left-handed starters, 13-3-1 in series openers and 8-3-1 on Mondays. However, for Arizona, the over is 6-2 in its last eight on Mondays and 7-3 in its last 10 on the road against right-handed starters. Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these clubs in Milwaukee.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (28-28) at Minnesota (29-27)
The Twins send Livan Hernandez (6-2, 4.60 ERA) to the hill in the finale of a four-game set with the Yankees, who are set to hand the ball to Andy Pettitte (5-5, 4.11) inside the Metrodome.
Minnesota took Sunday?s game 5-1 after dropping one-run decisions Friday (6-5) and Saturday (7-6 in 12 innings). The Twins are 5-2 in their last seven overall, but they snapped a four-game home losing skid with yesterday?s win. Also, Minnesota is just 3-8 in its last 11 at home against southpaw starters, but 6-2 in its last eight on Mondays.
Despite Sunday?s setback, which halted a three-game winning streak, New York has won eight of its last 11 overall and five of six against teams with a winning record. The Yankees are also 5-2 in their last seven games in Minnesota and 37-15 in the last 52 matchups against the Twins regardless of venue.
The Twins are 9-3 in Hernandez?s 12 starts this season, and he?s 4-0 with a 4.23 ERA in six games at home. The veteran right-hander has been knocked around lately, giving up 14 runs (11 earned) in his last 11 1/3 innings over two starts, a 9-8 Minnesota win at Kansas City and an 8-7 home loss to Texas. Prior to that two-game stretch, Hernandez had allowed three earned runs or less in four straight starts.
For his career, Hernandez is 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA in three starts against the Yankees. Last year while with the Diamondbacks, he surrendered seven runs on nine hits in four innings of a 7-2 loss at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees have won Pettitte?s last two starts as he?s allowed an identical two runs on eight hits over a combined 12 2/3 innings in wins over the Mariners (13-2 at home) and Orioles (4-2 on the road). On the road this season, Pettitte is 4-2 with a 3.72 ERA.
Pettitte is 8-5 with a 3.52 ERA in 17 lifetime starts against the Twins, and the Yankees have won eight of his last 10 starts against them, including four in a row overall and four of his last five in the Metrodome. The last time the veteran southpaw faced Minnesota was April 2007 when he scattered four hits and a walk over six shutout innings of a 10-1 road victory.
Prior to winning Pettitte?s last two starts, New York had lost five straight games behind Pettitte, But otherwise Joe Girardi?s squad sports positive trends of 14-4 with Pettitte pitching on Monday, 10-3 with him on the road, and 19-7 when he goes up against A.L. Central squads.
For Pettitte, the under is 20-7 in his last 27 starts overall, 13-3 in his last 16 when he goes on four days? rest, 7-1 in his last eight versus teams with a winning record and 7-0 in his last seven on the highway. On the flip side, the over is 8-1 in Hernandez?s last nine starts overall and 5-0 in his last five outings inside the Metrodome.
The over is 6-3 in the Yankees? last nine overall, but otherwise the under is on streaks for the team of 10-4-1 against A.L. Central squads, 5-1-1 on Mondays and 7-1 on the road against right-handed starters. For the Twins, the over is 9-4 in their last 13 overall, 5-2-1 in their last seven against A.L. East foes and 6-1 in their last seven at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
