KBHoops
10 unit GOY... 5 units Twins ML +165, 5 units Twins +1.5 -130 for a total of 10 units. We are still getting GREAT value with Minny +1.5 so lets split this 10 unit play up that way we break even, even if we get a bad beat or lose by 1.
3 units KC Royals +170, 3 units KC Royals +1.5 +100 split ML/RL play
5 units San Diego/Florida OVER 7.5
I am not going to give a big writeup on this game, but I will give you a few reasons why Minnesota is a good play tonight. Minnesota is red hot right now. They have won 5 straight, and they are 18-3 their last 21 games!!! I know alot of peoples arguments about that is big deal Minnesota got hot at home, and Boston is too good at Fenway. Well, Minnesota has also won 5 out of their last 6 games on the road winning game 1 in both of those series. Now I know Boston is a very good home team, but something I find interesting is they are 0-4 in their last 4 series at home in Game 1's. That came against Arizona, St. Louis, Baltimore, and Seattle. I mentioned Minnesota is 18-3 their last 21, but Boston is just 2-7 in their past 9 ballgames. In the past 7 games Minnesota is outscoring its opponents 6.7 to 3, they are batting .340 compared to their opponents .220, with an OBP of .404 compared to opp .248. WOW. Minnesota also hits righties very well. The Twins are 39-25 +18.3 units vs. righties batting .281 and averaging 5.2 runs per game! At night Minnesota is 37-24 +17.3 units batting .283 averaging 5.5 rpg, and Boston is just 33-29 -1.6 units batting .268 and averaging 4.8 rpg. Baker goes for the Twins tonight, and he is has pitched very well. Baker is 5-2 with an ERA of 3.65 and a WHIP of 1.203. Baker is 3-0 with an ERA of 3.50 with a WHIP of 1.278 in his past 3 starts. Matsuzaka has really struggled lately. In his past 3 starts he is 1-1 with an ERA of 6.55, a WHIP of 1.909, and he only lasted an average of 3.7 innings in those starts!! Boston has never faced Scott Baker which I like as well. Minnesota is also 11-6 +6.8 units vs. Boston the last 3 seasons, and they are 3-1 +2.5 units vs. Boston this year. There is just too much value in this game not to make it my biggest play. There are some very good trends in the favor of the Twins today as well. Alot of the ones I have are meaningful and happen for a reason. If you look at a few you will see why they keep reoccuring. They are below
Keep in mind that the next 28 trends are hitting at 55-63% clips BUT the average juice on those games was +150
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (MINNESOTA) - after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning record on the season.
(73-68 over the last 5 seasons.) (51.8%, +54.4 units
Play On - Road teams (MINNESOTA) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA<=3.50) (AL), with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season.
(140-114 since 1997.) (55.1%, +71.1 units
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA<=3.50) (AL), with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season.
(102-88 since 1997.) (53.7%, +65.2 units
Play On - Road teams (MINNESOTA) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (AL), after 2 straight games where they committed no errors.
(81-65 over the last 5 seasons.) (55.5%, +39.9 units
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing.
(86-67 over the last 5 seasons.) (56.2%, +54.8 units
Play On - Any team (MINNESOTA) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (AL), after 3 straight games where they committed no errors.
(109-69 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.2%, +49 units
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - after 2 straight games where they committed no errors, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing.
(99-81 over the last 5 seasons.) (55%, +60.8 units
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA<=3.50) (AL), after 2 straight games where they committed no errors.
(44-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (59.5%, +33.4 units
Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (BOSTON) - off 2 straight road losses vs. a division rival.
(77-63 over the last 5 seasons.) (55%, +41.6 units
Play On - Road teams (MINNESOTA) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA<=3.50) (AL), with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season.
(114-96 since 1997.) (54.3%, +53.2 units
Play Against - Home teams (BOSTON) - off 2 straight road losses vs. a division rival.
(121-93 over the last 5 seasons.) (56.5%, +47.8 units
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA<=3.50) (AL), with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season.
(80-74 since 1997.) (51.9%, +46.8 units
Play On - Road teams (MINNESOTA) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA<=3.50) (AL), after 2 straight games where they committed no errors.
(41-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.1%, +30.8 units
Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (BOSTON) - off 2 straight road losses vs. a division rival.
(54-35 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.7%, +37.9 units
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (BOSTON) - after a game where their bullpen blew a save against opponent with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games.
(49-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (53.8%, +41.2 units
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing.
(69-53 over the last 5 seasons.) (56.6%, +45.5 units
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing, with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games.
(69-53 over the last 5 seasons.) (56.6%, +45.5 units
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing.
(98-83 over the last 5 seasons.) (54.1%, +55.5 units
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA<=3.50) (AL), after 2 straight games where they committed no errors.
(31-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (62%, +27.6 units
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing against opponent starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing.
(45-28 since 1997.) (61.6%, +37.2 units
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (BOSTON) - with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 5 games against opponent with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games.
(46-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (55.4%, +37.7 units
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing against opponent starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing.
(40-24 since 1997.) (62.5%, +34 units
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA<=3.50) (AL), after 2 straight games where they committed no errors.
(41-27 since 1997.) (60.3%, +33.4 units
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games.
(65-48 over the last 5 seasons.) (57.5%, +43.9 units
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - average hitting team (AVG = .265 to .279) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing.
(44-30 since 1997.) (59.5%, +33.2 units
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (MINNESOTA) - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(30-21 since 1997.) (58.8%, +32.7 units
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (AL), hot hitting team - batting .300 or better over their last 15 games.
(33-20 since 1997.) (62.3%, +27 units
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games.
(53-35 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.2%, +40.1 units
MINNESOTA is 21-14 (+9.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.8, OPPONENT 4.4
MINNESOTA is 133-138 (+33.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better since 1997.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.6
MINNESOTA is 18-3 (+18.0 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 6.1, OPPONENT 3.3
MINNESOTA is 33-26 (+11.6 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.0, OPPONENT 4.7
MINNESOTA is 15-6 (+10.9 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.2, OPPONENT 4.5
MINNESOTA is 91-90 (+31.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better since 1997.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.5, OPPONENT 4.8
BAKER is 8-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BAKER 5.5, OPPONENT 2.0
BOSTON is 265-207 (-45.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game since 1997.
The average score was BOSTON 5.4, OPPONENT 4.8
BOSTON is 68-70 (-24.8 Units) against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 4.7, OPPONENT 4.6
BOSTON is 5-12 (-11.7 Units) against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 4.0, OPPONENT 4.5
MINNESOTA is 16-7 (+10.5 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.3, OPPONENT 4.1
MINNESOTA is 31-29 (+9.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.7, OPPONENT 5.0
MINNESOTA is 50-38 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.0, OPPONENT 4.6
MINNESOTA is 39-31 (+11.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.1, OPPONENT 4.8
MINNESOTA is 27-22 (+7.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.2, OPPONENT 4.7
MINNESOTA is 17-10 (+9.6 Units) against the money line after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.8, OPPONENT 4.7
MINNESOTA is 17-6 (+11.7 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.3, OPPONENT 4.2
MINNESOTA is 10-0 (+10.6 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games where they committed no errors this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 6.4, OPPONENT 2.7
MINNESOTA is 37-24 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.5, OPPONENT 4.7
MINNESOTA is 39-25 (+18.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.2, OPPONENT 4.3
MINNESOTA is 8-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 6.4, OPPONENT 4.9
MINNESOTA is 28-11 (+20.7 Units) against the money line after 1 or more consecutive unders this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.6, OPPONENT 4.4
MINNESOTA is 19-10 (+10.0 Units) against the money line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.4, OPPONENT 3.5
MINNESOTA is 15-8 (+8.5 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.7, OPPONENT 3.9
MINNESOTA is 13-5 (+9.5 Units) against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.8, OPPONENT 3.4
MINNESOTA is 11-2 (+10.5 Units) against the money line after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.8, OPPONENT 3.2
MINNESOTA is 31-17 (+16.9 Units) against the money line off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog since 1997.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.8, OPPONENT 4.1
MINNESOTA is 9-2 (+9.1 Units) against the money line off a one run win over a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.5, OPPONENT 3.2
MINNESOTA is 26-13 (+16.6 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games without giving up a stolen base this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.8, OPPONENT 4.4
MINNESOTA is 20-6 (+17.4 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games without giving up a stolen base this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.0, OPPONENT 4.0
MINNESOTA is 26-15 (+12.6 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive home games this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.0, OPPONENT 3.8
MINNESOTA is 21-12 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive home games this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.0, OPPONENT 3.9
MINNESOTA is 29-20 (+11.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.7, OPPONENT 4.4
MINNESOTA is 18-10 (+8.7 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.9, OPPONENT 3.9
MINNESOTA is 12-5 (+8.3 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.6, OPPONENT 3.6
MINNESOTA is 15-4 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .300 or better over a 20 game span over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 6.1, OPPONENT 4.7
MINNESOTA is 49-38 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.6, OPPONENT 4.3
MINNESOTA is 20-12 (+9.5 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.7, OPPONENT 5.0
BAKER is 13-4 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BAKER 4.3, OPPONENT 2.8
BOSTON is 4-11 (-9.6 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season.
The average score was BOSTON 3.1, OPPONENT 3.7
BOSTON is 6-13 (-10.0 Units) against the money line after a loss by 2 runs or less this season.
The average score was BOSTON 3.6, OPPONENT 4.0
MINNESOTA is 11-6 (+6.8 Units) against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 (+2.5 Units) against BOSTON this season
GARDENHIRE is 19-9 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .300 or better over a 20 game span as the manager of MINNESOTA.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.3, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
GARDENHIRE is 129-104 (+33.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs as the manager of MINNESOTA.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.6, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)
GARDENHIRE is 420-317 (+75.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters as the manager of MINNESOTA.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.8, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 0*)
GARDENHIRE is 89-53 (+27.4 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games as the manager of MINNESOTA.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.0, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)
GARDENHIRE is 68-61 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 straight games without a stolen base as the manager of MINNESOTA.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.6, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)
GARDENHIRE is 220-153 (+60.7 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games without giving up a stolen base as the manager of MINNESOTA.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.8, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)
GARDENHIRE is 342-246 (+72.8 Units) against the money line after a win as the manager of MINNESOTA.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.8, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
GARDENHIRE is 208-154 (+44.7 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 as the manager of MINNESOTA.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.6, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 0*)
GARDENHIRE is 63-32 (+29.7 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) as the manager of MINNESOTA.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.7, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*)
GARDENHIRE is 66-56 (+26.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better as the manager of MINNESOTA.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.6, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 2*)
GARDENHIRE is 96-89 (+27.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better as the manager of MINNESOTA.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.3, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 0*)
GARDENHIRE is 128-90 (+46.0 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start as the manager of MINNESOTA.
The average score was MINNESOTA 4.9, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
FRANCONA is 60-54 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in July games as the manager of BOSTON.
The average score was BOSTON 5.5, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 0*)
FRANCONA is 39-42 (-21.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday as the manager of BOSTON.
The average score was BOSTON 5.0, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*)
FRANCONA is 24-25 (-13.8 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite of -150 or more as the manager of BOSTON.
The average score was BOSTON 5.6, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 0*)
FRANCONA is 54-54 (-24.9 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite as the manager of BOSTON.
The average score was BOSTON 5.2, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*)
FRANCONA is 52-48 (-19.2 Units) against the money line after 6 or more consecutive road games as the manager of BOSTON.
The average score was BOSTON 5.1, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 0*)
FRANCONA is 66-58 (-23.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season as the manager of BOSTON.
The average score was BOSTON 5.3, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 1*)
FRANCONA is 79-65 (-22.5 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season as the manager of BOSTON.
The average score was BOSTON 5.4, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)
FRANCONA is 21-36 (-27.7 Units) against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season as the manager of BOSTON.
The average score was BOSTON 4.2, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 3*)
