DR BOB - LEANS
Tennessee (-7.5) 26 UCLA 21
05:00 PM Pacific Time Monday, Sep-01 -
Stats Matchup
Tennessee was a good team last season, but they weren?t as good as their 10-4 record would indicate. The Volunteers out played their opponents from the line of scrimmage by an average of just 5.7 yard per play to 5.5 yppl, they won both of their overtime games and were 4-0 on games decided by less than 7 points - so 10-4 would have been 8-6 had they split those 4 close games. Tennessee could be a better team this season, but they are unlikely to have as good a record as they had in 2007.
The Volunteers no longer have Erik Ainge at quarterback, but Jonathan Compton should be fine in his place. The biggest question for the offense concerns losing offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe, who is now the Duke head coach. Tennessee?s offense was consistently good under Cutcliffe in the 90?s and then struggled earlier this decade after he left to be the head coach at Mississippi. Cutcliffe returned to Knoxville to be the OC again after a horrible 2005 season (18.6 points per game) and he revitalized the attack the last two seasons. New offensive coordinator Dave Clawson has credentials, but there is concern that Cutcliffe?s departure could pose a problem for the Vols this season. Clawson prefers a more physical rushing attack, as opposed to Cutcliffe?s finesse offensive style, and the Clawson has a very good offensive line and good running backs to help implement his power running game. All 5 linemen that started the second half of last season return along with running backs Arian Foster (1193 yards at 4.9 ypr), Montario Hardesty, and Lennon Creer. Tennessee only averaged 4.5 yards per rushing play last season (against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team), but I expect them to be a better than average running team in 2008. Compton will be asked to manage the game and throw a lot of short passes and intermediate passes and he should be accurate enough to run that sort of attack effectively. All 3 starting receivers from last year?s team return, which should help the progress in learning a new system and I think Compton will post good numbers ? although probably not as good as last season (5.7 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team).
While the offense probably won?t be quite as good early in the season, the defense should be better after posting mediocre numbers last season. Tennessee allowed 5.5 yppl in 2007 )to a schedule that would average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit) and I see much better numbers this season despite having just 6 starters returning. The secondary should be fantastic with 3 starters returning from last season and a 2006 starter, S Demetrice Morley, ready to impress NFL SCOUT s after missing last season due to academic issues. A strong secondary is the key to an improved defense that should be better against the run and the pass despite losing first round draft choice LB Jerod Mayo. This year?s defense is actually the most experienced unit that the Vols have had since their strong 2005 showing and I expect a significant improvement. Tennessee has had very good special teams the last couple of years and that should be the case once again this season with the key contributors returning. Punter Britton Colquitt has been suspended for the first 5 games, but backup P Chad Cunningham shouldn?t be much of a drop-off and would start for most teams.
Tennessee was my 20th rated team last season and I expect them to be a bit better this season thanks to what should be an improved offense. Of course, the loss of OC David Cutcliffe could be more damaging to the Vols? offense than I?ve projected. We?ll just have to see how the new attack performs and the UCLA defense will certainly be a good test.
UCLA was supposed to have a breakout season in 2007, but injuries derailed a promising offense and the Bruins went just 6-7 and coach Karl Dorrell was without a job. Dorrell?s bad luck with injuries the last couple of seasons may have been a blessing for UCLA fans, as the Bruins have upgraded their coaching staff with head coach Rick Neuheisel and offensive coordinator Norm Chow joining outstanding DC DeWayne Walker. Injuries continue to plague the Bruins, but the program will soon be headed to a higher level under Neuheisel, who revived programs at Colorado and Washington earlier in his career.
UCLA was hit especially hard by injuries to the quarterback position, as starting quarterback Ben Olson was finally starting to show signs up living up to his vast potential when he was injured in a loss to Notre Dame. The starter in 2006, Patrick Cowen, was also injured for much of last season and sucked when he did play, and the Bruins had to turn to 3rd and 4th string quarterbacks, who combined to complete just 40 of their 100 pass attempts. Olsen was by far the most productive quarterback, as he averaged a solid 5.8 yards per pass play despite facing a schedule of teams that would allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback. For the season UCLA?s pass attack was 0.4 yppp worse than average (5.0 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp), so losing Olson was a huge blow to the attack. Olson was set to return to the starting job this summer, but he was injured once more and will be out until at least late October. That leaves the quarterback position in the hands of transfer Kevin Craft, who completed a decent 57% of his 121 passes at San Diego State in 2006. Craft probably won?t be as good as Olson was last season, but he will be much better than the rest of last year?s UCLA quarterbacks and I expect the pass attack to be better than last year?s overall rating. Craft is not going to be horrible and the Bruins have some good young receivers to work with, so I?m sure Norm Chow will devise a scheme that works. The running backs look good with Kahlil Bell (795 yards at 5.6 ypr) returning and freshman Aundre Dean expected to add some pop to the backfield. The problem with the offense is a young and inexperienced offensive line that may struggle early in the season. Despite an improved running back position, better overall quarterback play, and a better offensive coordinator the UCLA offense will probably still be below average early in the season while the line comes together (although there is plenty of upside potential).
While the offense finds themselves, the defense should be good. UCLA loses their top 3 tacklers, their top pass rusher in Bruce Davis (12 sacks) and their top defensive back in Trey Brown (23 passes defended), so the Bruins? defense certainly won?t be as good as it was last season (4.7 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team ? adjusted for playing Oregon when Dennis Dixon was out). However, there is still plenty of talent for coach Walker to work with and I expect UCLA to still be very good against the run and better than average defending the pass thanks to emerging superstar CB Alterraun Verner, who defended 19 passes in 11 starts last season. UCLA also has outstanding special teams, with kicker Kai Forbath connecting on 25 of 30 kicks, including 5 for 5 from 50 yards plus, and punter Aaron Perez averaging a 37.6 net punt (35 net is average). UCLA will probably be about average in the return game, but their coverage teams should continue to be better than average. Special teams should continue to be a strength under the new coaching staff and UCLA looks like an underrated team that I rank about 30th in the nation.
While UCLA certainly has concerns on offense, the Bruins? defense is good enough to slow down a Tennessee attack that is learning a new system and breaking in a new quarterback. My ratings only favor Tennessee by ? a point in this game, so it looks like Tennessee?s misleading 10-4 record from last season has them overrated. UCLA has covered 11 consecutive times as an underdog thanks to their strong defense, but I?ll have to pass this gamed due to a negative 28-70-2 ATS game 1 situation that applies to UCLA and a 70-34-2 ATS game 1 situation that applies to Tennessee. Those situations still aren?t enough to keep me from leaning with UCLA.
RUTGERS (-5.5) 30 Fresno St. 28
01:00 PM Pacific Time Monday, Sep-01 -
Stats Matchup
Fresno State has been getting plenty of attention heading into this season as the non-BCS conference team that could make it to a BCS bowl after conference mates Boise State and Hawaii succeeded in doing so the last two seasons. I think the people touting Fresno State as a potential BCS buster are overlooking the fact that the Bulldogs continue to have defensive issues stopping the run ? something that has plagued them in each of the last 5 seasons. Fresno has a very strong offensive unit, but it will take a good defense to get through Rutgers, Wisconsin, UCLA and Boise State unscathed. Fresno State had some injuries along the defensive line that led were partially to blame for their horrible run defense last season (5.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team), but the Bulldogs allowed a combined 646 rushing yards at 6.0 yprp in weeks 2 and 3 before the injuries hit the defensive front. Texas A&M and Oregon would combine to average 6.2 yprp at home against an average team, so allowing those teams 6.0 yprp is actually decent. However, the graduation of WAC Defensive Player of the Year LB Marcus Riley and two of the defensive linemen that played those first few games last season makes it doubtful that Fresno will be even mediocre against the run this season. In fact, I project the Bulldogs to be 0.5 yprp worse than average defending the run, which is about what they?ve averaged over the last 5 seasons. While Fresno has struggled against the run, they do have a history of very good pass defense and I expect that to be the case this season with 3 of 4 defensive backfield starters returning and what should be another good pass rush. Overall, I rate the Bulldogs? defense as average on a yards per play basis and they should pick off more passes than the national low total of 4 interceptions that they had last season.
Fresno?s defense doesn?t have to be too good when the Bulldogs have an offense that is loaded with talent at every position group. Tom Brandstater came into his own the second half of last season and ended the season with a very good 7.2 yards per pass play average (against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average team). Brandstater should be even better this season with all of his top receivers back and the addition of 2006 top receiver Chastain West. Brandstater also has the benefit of having a great rushing attack to keep the pressure off of him, as the Bulldogs ran for 5.3 yprp last season (against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp) and should be even better this season with a more experienced offensive line and their top rusher back. Clifton Smith has moved on after running for 625 yards at 6.0 ypr, but Ryan Matthews ran for 866 yards at 6.0 ypr despite missing a few games. Fresno State will be a force offensively this season and Brandstater also does an excellent job of limiting his mistakes (just 5 interceptions last season).
What really made Fresno better than their stats was their special teams, which was the best in the nation last season once A.J. Jefferson took over kick return duties in game 4. Jefferson averaged 35.8 yards on his 26 kick off returns with 2 touchdowns. I doubt that he can duplicate those huge numbers and it will also be tough to average the 14.4 yards per punt return turned in by the departed Clifton Smith. Replacing the mediocre kicker and sub-par punter from last season shouldn?t be much of a task and Fresno should still rank among the best in the nation in special teams.
Fresno State has a great offense and very good special teams, but their soft run defense will likely cost them a couple of games (how do they beat Rutgers or Wisconsin with a bad run defense??) early in the season to end talk of a possible BCS game.
Rutgers went from 11-2 in 2006 to a disappointing 8-5 last season but they weren?t too much worse in reality. The 2006 Scarlet Knights were +11 in turnovers while the 2007 team was -6 in turnovers, which accounted for most of the difference. Aside from suddenly not being able to force turnovers (only 19 opponent?s turnovers compared to 31 in 2006), the Scarlet Knights had one other fatal flaw in 2007 ? they couldn?t stop the run. Rutgers stuffed the run in 2006 (4.1 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team), but the Scarlet Knights surrendered 5.2 yprp in 2007 (against teams that would average 4.7 yprp). Rutgers continued their dominance against the pass (4.8 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppp), but their overall defense was just 0.4 yards per play better than average last season. Rutgers doesn?t really have a defensive tackle that clog running lanes and their defensive starters average just 255 pounds, so I expect the Knights to continue to have trouble against the run. The secondary, however, returns 3 of 4 starters, including both cornerbacks, and they should be a dominant group once again. In fact, I think Rutgers will be even better against the pass this season than they?ve been the last two years and I rate the Knights at 0.7 yppl better than average defensively this season while they?ll most likely force more turnovers.
Rutgers will be without All-American RB Ray Rice, who ran for 2012 yards at 5.3 ypr last season. There doesn?t appear to be a back capable of filling Rice?s shoes and the offensive line doesn?t look quite as good, so I?ll call for below average rushing numbers for the Scarlet Knights this season. The good news about not having Rice to carry the ball is that the offense will probably throw the ball more often. Mike Teel averaged an incredible 8.7 yards per pass play last season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) and this top 4 receivers all return, including stars Tiquan Underwood (1100 yards at 16.9 ypc) and Kenny Britt (1232 yards at 19.9 ypc). Teel and company simply dominated bad pass defenses last season, so Rutgers? passing numbers were inflated. However, Teel still averaged 7.4 yppp from week 5 on (the start of Big East play) against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB ? so he still had an incredible season. Teel still threw too many interceptions (13 on 349 pass attempts, 3.7%), but he also was sacked only 7 times all season for the second straight year. Teel should continue to improve and Rutgers will have one of the best pass attacks in the nation again this season.
Rutgers has some issues on special teams, but they are a pretty good team overall that could become a very good team if the coaching staff can find a way to defend the run like they did in 2006. Rutgers looks like a top 25 team to me and I rate them 3rd in the Big East just ahead of Pitt.
My ratings favor Rutgers by 4 ? points in this game, which is right around the number, but Fresno State is 27-8 ATS as an underdog in non-conference play, including 20-4 ATS as a dog of 5 points or more. I?ll favor the Bulldogs to cover based on that incredible team trend.
