Monday Service Plays 9/8/08

[kozski61]

MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty missed with the Dolphins Sunday. Monday it's the Yankees and Raiders. The surplus is 425 sirignanos.


( 5-7 sunday in nfl )

Vikes
raiders



SCOTT FERRALL

BEST IN BOLD

Cleveland -135 at Baltimore--Carmona over Olson

BOSTON -170 and Lester over Tampa--The Rays always lose at Fenway and you know the Sox are going to be up their ass and take over the division this week (Jump on it)

LINCECUM -165 at home over Arizona and Petit--this kid might still win the Cy Young



NFL

Minnesota +3 from Green Bay--Vikings spoil Rodgers debut in the regular season at Lambeau--Jared Allen with a big game chasing him down and Peterson going off on the Packers defense


Oakland +3 from Denver in the Black Hole--Basically an upset here by the Raiders with Russell and McFadden having good games and the Broncos screwing it up on the road in Northern Cali





PlayByPlayInc. NFL

9/8/2008 MINNESOTA at
GREEN BAY Over 38

9/8/2008 DENVER at
OAKLAND Over 41





LT Profits

2 Unit Denver - 2 1/2




Wild Bill

Vikings and Packers Over (5 units)
Vikings +3 (5 units)




Ace Ace/Alan Eastman ( 3-5 yesterday NFL)

GB UNDER 38..............................$500.00 -105





SPORTS INSIGHTS

479 Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Monday Night Football has the Favre-less Green Bay Packers at home versus the Minnesota Vikings. You would think that ?the solid Packer playoff team? from last year lost half of their team in addition to their aging star, Brett Favre.

The visiting Minnesota Vikings are collecting about 70% of the bets. All of this public money has pushed the ?number? off of the huge key number of 3. There is good value in getting Green Bay -2 at home. We?ll ?bet against the public? and grab this contrarian value.

Green Bay Packers -2

So, here?s a wrap-up of **************.com analysis for this week?s Games to Watch for NFL Week 1.

Green Bay Packers -2





The Sports Reporter newsletter

RECOMMENDED TOTAL
UNDER 41.5
DENVER at OAKLAND
DENVER, 16-13




HONDO

September 8, 2008

Hondo sticks with Tribe
Hondo bounced back beautifully from his two- game weekend slide, scoring with the Indians yes terday in K.C. to raise the haul to 715 sieberts.
Tonight, if at first you succeed, try Tribe again - 10 units on Carmona.





ARMVIN SPORTS NFL
9/8/2008 DENVER at
OAKLAND Under 41

ARMVIN SPORTS MLB
9/8/2008 CHICAGO WHITE SOX -124




Value-Champ Sports NFL

9/8/2008
Best Bet! GREEN BAY -2



Teddy Sevransky/ Teddy Covers (over/under wins props)

The following is a 10*

Vikings Over 8.5





Lance's Lock
Overall record: 660-555-23
Current streak: 2 losses
Todays play: The Raiders +3' bought





JEFFERSONSPORTS EARLY MLB RELEASE
DETROIT-180 (Miner)
"This line should be -200 atleast. High juice but still value. Probably covers the run-line but I just don't like run-lines."

good luck fellas

JEFFERSONSPORTS ADDING
SAN FRANCISCO-180 (Lincecum)





Larry Ness

NFC North Game of the Month 15* GB Packers.




CAPPERS ACCESS

Mon-Night (NFL) Packers
Mon-Night (NFL) Raiders





*** EZWINNERS MLB ***

2 STAR: (905) CINCINNATI (+$123) over Milwaukee
(Listing Volquez only)
(Risking $200 to win $246)
7:05PM Central Time

2 STAR: (909) ARIZONA (+$164) over San Francisco
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $328)
9:15PM Central Time





Arthur Ralph

Super Pick Chicago White Sox

900 Blue Ribbon Green Bay -2

Free Play LA Angels




ROCCO SPACAMURO

100* Den -3





las vegas sports advisors
NFL 9/8/2008 at 10:15:00 PM

Denver at Oakland pointspread

Denver -3

 

[kozski61]

Ben Burns

Angels

Raiders

Vikings UNDER




Players of America

Today's Selections

CIN vs. MIL
Sport: Major League Baseball
Game: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Play: Milwaukee Brewers -130.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
Writeup:
Good day. We're going to fire one more time at this regular season thing, and if it doesn't work out we'll be pocketing our profits for the MLB regular season and passing until the post season. It's been a rough runaround these last few weeks and we refuse to give any more of our hard earned profits back to the books this time of year. We're coming out firing at the books today with two decent size plays in baseball to jumpstart some big time momentum. Below is a brief overview of our progress through the current season:

Major League Baseball
1* 106-103 +541.20 Units
3* 35-25
5* 6-5
10* GOY 1-0

As we waltz into Monday and start a new week, it's time to start taking advantage of some of these positional teams. Our first release will come from Milwaukee as the Brewers are set to host the visiting Cincinnati Reds. Milwaukee is coming off a disaster night at home, while the Reds come in stealing one from the Cubs at Great American Ballpark. These two teams couldn't be further away from each other on the spectrum, the Brewers at 82-60 and the Reds at 63-79.

The big right hander, David Bush, will start for Milwaukee Monday night. David comes in 9-10 overall with a WHIP of 1.15 and an ERA right around 4.30. Bush has been rather solid his last few times out. He's 2-1 in his last three appearances and has gone 18 plus innings respectively. Both of these squads are an even 5-5 in their last ten totals, but one is playing for position in the playoffs while the other is playing for pride. The Brewers need this one just a wee bit more than the Reds, and coming off that embarrassing loss, it's a great spot to take advantage of a hungry ballclub.

The Reds will give it to Edinson Volquez to start. Edinson comes in at a very good 16-5 overall in 170 total innings, with a WHIP of 1.32. He is 1-0 in his last three starts with two no decisions, but has gotten pretty roughed up. He has racked up an ERA of 6.39 in those three starts, and a WHIP of 1.47. Whether his confidence is still there is subjective, but you don't want to be "slumping" against a line up like the Brewers. Milwaukee is finally healthy and really has something to prove tonight.and that is that they belong in the 2008 MLB Playoffs.

Believe it or not, a rather reasonable price here on Milwaukee. A small amount of chalk to lay on a vastly better team, and we'll do it. We're going to lay 30 units for a 3* wager on the Brewers as they take care of business at home Monday night.

TRENDS OF THE GAME:
-The Brewers are 20-8 in their last 28 games on grass
-The Brewers are 20-8 in their last 28 games overall

Milwaukee 6, Cincinnati 4


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOR vs. CHW
Sport: Major League Baseball
Game: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
The Play: Chicago White Sox -125.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
Writeup:
Next, and for our final release, we'll be riding another team in a big time pennant race.this time from the American League. The Chicago White Sox are scheduled to host the visiting Toronto Blue Jays Monday night at 8:10PM EST. The White Sox are coming off a very hard fought battle with western foe Anaheim Angels, but now is the time to capitalize and put some space between themselves and the Twins in the AL Central.

Chicago comes in at 80-61 overall. A lot of bettors might shy away from this one because of Burnett being on the mound for Toronto, but not us. Guillen and staff have elected to start righty Javier Vazquez. Javier is 11-12 overall, and has pitched very, very consistently all season long. He's a hard spot in the White Sox rotation and never an easy guy to hit. His WHIP is solid at 1.30 and his ERA is legit at 4.34 (in over 183 innings).

Toronto gives it to the infamous A.J. Burnett. There is no putting this guy down, he is a very good pitcher. He is also a solid spot in Toronto's rotation, but he is human and he is very hittable, especially to a line up like Chicago's. He's 16-10 overall, with a WHIP of 1.40 and an ERA of about 4.50. A.J. is 0-1 in his last three games giving up over 20 hits in about 21 total innings pitched.

There is a ton of energy flowing through Chicago this time of year. The Cubbies are among the best in baseball, but the White Sox have other things to say about that. Again, the Sox are very affordable Monday night. We'll lay the small juice for a 3* / 30 unit wager to get us all back on track heading into a very near post season.

TREND OF THE GAME:
-The White Sox are 40-14 in their last 54 home games

Chicago 5, Toronto 2





The Gold Medal Club MLB Selection

#917 Toronto @ # 918 Chicago White Sox 8:10 pm
Burnett vs Vaquez (LP)

PLAY ON #917 Toronto +

Don't look now but the Toronto is on a roll winners of 8 straight, and getting pitching that is out of this world. Tonight Burnett takes the mound and has been in spectacular form against the likes of the Twins and Yankees.
Vazquez owns a 6-5 record at home with an era of 4.19.




THE VEGAS STEAMLINE

LA DODGERS w/ Maddux -140 over San Diego





Insider Sports Report

N.Y. Yankees +105 over L.A. Angels (MLB)




Sebastian for Monday:
20* den/raiders under
200* minny

Inside play bases clev
20* cincy
200* white sox





ATS Lock Club Pro FB

4 units Oakland +3 v. Denver






Big Al McMoride
3* Raiders




Larry Ness
LV Insider - Brewers




NSA

Broncos 20*




INVESTMENT PLAYMAKERS
20* American League Selection of the Day [ MLB ]
Date: Monday, September 08, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: We are dominating the baseball selections nailing the 20* game yesterday we are still delivering the winning blows to your man. Currently hitting at 60.9% in all selections and we are your true investment. Get todays 20* American League Selection and it must win or you do not pay.


Cleveland Indians





OC DOOLEY

2 UNIT Packers -2



Victorious Play for today:

White Sox Over 8.5





AntonWins

Today's 4 unit NFL play is Over 37.5 Minnesota/Green Bay -110

Best of luck.






special k

20* Super K -Oakland Raiders




Brandon Lang
MONDAY

15 Dime Packers

FREE - Raiders





CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: MINNESOTA VIKINGS vs GREENBAY PACKERS
Play: VIKINGS / PACKERS OVER 38 (POD)
Comments: CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: VIKINGS / PACKERS OVER 38 (POD)


CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: CINCINNATI REDS vs MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Play: REDS / BREWERS UNDER 8.5
Comments: CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS: REDS / BREWERS UNDER 8.5

 

[the duke]

Larry Ness write up

Las Vegas Insider-MLB (now 50-28 since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Mil Brewers at 8:05 ET. All of a sudden, the Brewers have stopped scoring. They are trying to catch the Cubs in the NL Central plus want to maintain their edge as the NL's wild card team, if nothing else. However, the Brewers have dropped FIVE of their last seven games, while scoring a measly 16 runs (that's 2.29 per). Prince Fielder's bat has been quiet for 10 games now (hitting just .132 over that span), while Ryan Braun hasn't driven in a run in six games. With a chance to take three of four games from the Padres on Sunday, Gabe Kapler had to break up Chris Young's perfect game with an eighth-inning HR (Milwaukee lost 10-1). The Brewers open a three-game series with the Reds tonight, who actually helped the Brewers this past weekend, by taking two of three games from the Cubs in Cincy. The Reds will send All Star Edinson Volquez (16-5, 3.12 ERA) to the mound Monday night but Volquez has not been the same in the second half. He was 12-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break in 19 starts (team was 14-5), allowing only 30 ERs over 117.2 innings. However, in nine starts since then, he's 4-2 (team is 4-5), allowing almost as many ERs (29) in just 52.1 innings, as he did in his 117.2 innings (30 ERs) prior to the break. His second-half ERA is 4.99 and he's pitching for a team with one of MLB's worst road records (26-43 / minus-$1,177). Milwaukee will send Dave Bush to the hill, who is coming off a brutal start in his last outing. The Mets won at Milwaukee last Monday and Tuesday and in Wednesday's "getaway day" game, Bush allowed six first-inning runs. He hung around for four more scoreless innings but the damage was done, as the Brewers lost 9-2 and were swept. However, it's impossible to ignore that Bush had been pitching very well prior to that, having allowed three ERs or less in NINE of his previous 12 starts, with the Brewers going 10-2. In '06 and '07 Bush saw the Brewers go 20-10 in his home starts but just 10-23 in his road starts and while recently he's pitched better on the road, his '08 record still reveals that his home ERA is 3.62 with Milwaukee going 10-4 and his road ERA is 5.32, with Milwaukee going 4-7. I expect Bush to bounce back from last Wednesday's terrible outing and for Milwaukee to win here. Las Vegas Insider on the Mil Brewers.



15* NFC North Game of the Month

Can Rodgers rise to the challenge? Favre opened with a win yesterday, as the Jets beat the Dolphins in Miami (two TD passes) and all eyes turn to Lambeau Field night where for the first time since September 20, 1992, someone other than Brett Favre will be the Packers' starting QB in a regular or postseason game. It's true that Rodgers has attempted only 59 passes in his NFL career but he was better that most people give him credit for in the preseason, completing 37-of-54 passes (68.5 percent) for 436 yards with three TDs and an interception, finishing with a 103.6 QB rating. His counterpart on Minnesota is Tarvaris Jackson, who completed 58.2 percent last year for 1,911 passing yards with just nine TDs and 12 INTs. His QB rating of 70.8 leaves a lot to be desired. Jackson missed the final two games of what was developing into a productive preseason with a knee sprain but will start on Monday. It doesn't help that LT Bryant McKinnie will serve the first week of a four-game suspension for violation of the NFL personal conduct policy, as his absence in protecting Jackson's blind side could have a major impact. In the end though, the Minnesota offense relies on last year's rookie-of-the-year, Adrian Peterson. AP led the NFC with 1,341 yards (5.6 per) and scored 12 rushing TDs. Rodgers will have many more 'weapons' at his disposal than Jackson. GB's receiver corps "came into its own" last year and Rodgers will have to prove that it wasn't all due to Brett. WRs Donald Driver (82 receptions, 2 TD), Greg Jennings (53 receptions, 12 TD) and James Jones (47 receptions, 2 TD) were terrific last year, as was TE Donald Lee (48 receptions, 6 TD). Jones (knee) may not play Monday, meaning second-round pick Jordy Nelson (Kansas State) will get increased opportunities. The OL faces a tough challenge against the Vikings' DL (has added Jared Allen and his 15 1/2 sacks with Kansas City) but last season this unit only allowed 19 sacks. It also paved the wave for the emergence of RB Ryan Grant, who is intent on proving that last year's second-half 'explosion' was no fluke. Minnesota had the league's top-ranked run defense the past two seasons, in large part because of the outstanding DT tandem of Pat Williams and Kevin Williams but the Vikings were among the worst pass defenses in '07. They finished last in passing yards allowed and 18th in yards allowed per pass. Allen figures to provide the pass rush they so desperately need but if Green Bay's OL plays well, Rodgers will too. The Packers have beaten the Vikings four straight times and Minnesota has gone just 3-5 SU in each of the last three seasons on the road. This pointspread has dipped below a FG, meaning the Vikings are almost forced to win the game to get the cover. I don't see that happening and I'm predicting a very good game from Rodgers.

NFC North Game of the Month 15* GB Packers.

 

[the duke]

Fairway Jay

Monday Night Football O/U (67% FB Run): $29
Fairway Jay has you covered with this nationally televised Monday Night Football Total. Fairway shoots for the green while extending his strong 67% football run. This NFL MNF report is $29 and guaranteed to win or his next football play is free.

Minnesota Vikings +2.5

 

[the duke]

Frank Rosenthal

901 FISH OVER 9.5 SB
904 ASTROS-120 SB
905 REDS UNDER 8.5 SB+
908 PADRES+130 SB
OVER 7.5 SB+
914 COOKIES+115 SB
918 CWS-115 SB

NFL - WEEK 1
479 VIKINGS+2.5 SB
OVER 37 SB
481 BRONCOS-3 SB
UNDER 41.5 SB+

 

[kozski61]

Executive

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Exec 250%-G.Bay




Frank Rosenthal

901 FISH OVER 9.5 SB
904 ASTROS-120 SB
905 REDS UNDER 8.5 SB+
908 PADRES+130 SB
OVER 7.5 SB+
914 COOKIES+115 SB
918 CWS-115 SB

NFL - WEEK 1
479 VIKINGS+2.5 SB
OVER 37 SB
481 BRONCOS-3 SB
UNDER 41.5 SB+





BOOKIE PAYS YOU

We're now 5-2 in our last 7 and looking to move to 6-2 today.
Get on the Vikings tonight! Minnesota is now 7-1ATS in their last 8 trips to
Green Bay... They aren't intimidated AT ALL by the frozen tundra of Lambeau
Field! THEY ALWAYS COVER AGAINST THE PACKERS! I know it's week
1, but Minnesota's defense should be VERY strong this season, and with
Aaron Rodgers starting his first ever Monday night football game tonight, I
look for him to have his share of turnovers while the Vikings simply feed the
rock to Adrian Peterson and let him work. Vikings plus the 3pts. tonight. ***
Thanks.




The Gold Medal Club MLB Selection

#917 Toronto @ # 918 Chicago White Sox 8:10 pm
Burnett vs Vaquez (LP)

PLAY ON #917 Toronto +

Don't look now but the Toronto is on a roll winners of 8 straight, and getting pitching that is out of this world. Tonight Burnett takes the mound and has been in spectacular form against the likes of the Twins and Yankees.
Vazquez owns a 6-5 record at home with an era of 4.19

 

[the duke]

Jeff Bonds

Double-Dime

GBP / MIN Under 38.0

A significant 2008 trend has formed early in Week 1 of the NFL and we're going to exploit it on Monday Night.

There were four intra-divisional games on Sunday - with all four games going under the total by an average of 7.5 points.

This proves important with the Vikings/Packers facing off against each other. The UNDER is also 2-0 the last two times Green Bay has started a season within the division. The pattern continues even further with the UNDER being 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings and 4-0 the last four times in Green Bay.Finally - the weather is expected to be rainy in Green Bay, which may cause the offensive coordinators to be even more cautious in such an important game.

 

[the duke]

Bob Balfe

NFL Football

Packers -2.5 over Vikings

All eyes will be on Aaron Rogers in this game as the Brett Favre era officially ends with a new QB on the field tonight. The Packers will be ok with Rogers. The Green Bay receivers are very talented and Ryan Grant is a good running back. The real question is how will the Vikings be able to score on the tough Packers defense. Tavaris Jackson is not the best throwing QB and injuries have slowed him on his feet. This is the very building where Adrian Peterson got hurt last year and he looked awful in the preseason. The Vikings suspended LT McKinney is suspended so you can beat Jackson will feel uncomfortable all night. The Packers have handled the Vikings in all four meetings dating back to two seasons ago. This Packers team is unchanged except for the QB position. This game will be won of defense. Take the Packers.

Raiders +3 over Broncos

The Broncos are going to struggle on offense this season. Denver has a young offensive line and their offensive backfield is also unproven. Tonight Brandon Marshall will not play so they are extremely thin in the receiver slot. One thing Oakland brings on offense is size. This team is huge and they will run the ball all night. JaMarcus Russell has a year under his belt and should be much improved. The Broncos are really going to be worn out in this game. Oakland should pound the ball running and when Russell takes off you better not tackle him high at 6-6 260. The Oakland defense will be stacked in the secondary and should take care of the Broncos offensive line to limit the running game. Oakland might surprise some people this year and make a playoff push. Take the Raiders.


Major League Baseball

Brewers -125 over Reds

 

[the duke]

OC DOOLEY write up


"2 UNIT" MONDAY FOOTBALL EARLY PERCENTAGE
WAGER Packers -2 at home versus Vikings in a 7:05 eastern kickoff on ESPN): Even though Green Bay is coming off a spectacular 13-3 campaign and was an overtime session away from participating in the Super Bowl, there has actually been more betting excitement with a Minnesota squad that has suddenly become a chic playoff pick. At most offshore locations the line for tonight's contest has dropped ONE full point and I am taking full advantage of the value created. It is easy to see why many question tonight's home team since the Packers for the first time since 1992 will not have Brett Favre as their starting quarterback. Since the issue has been dealt with non-stop in the media, there is no reason for me to elaborate on the Favre issue, but the bottom line is that a WIN this evening would give Green Bay fans a breather from the infamous offseason soap opera. The fact of the matter is that new starter Aaron Rodgers has had plenty of time to observe the legend as he is entering his FOURTH year on the roster. Rodgers has only been given the chance to take the field 7 times in that long time span and definitely deserves a shot to lead this team after being a very high draft pick out of California. We all got a glimpse of how good Rodgers canbe in an NFL Network Thursday primetime telecast a year ago when the Packers upset the talent-landen Cowboys in Dallas. Due to an injury, Rodgers entered the contest and completed 18-of-26 passes for 200 yards in what was a very tough environment. Another reason why tonight's line is dropping has to do with Green Bay INJURIES which has effected 5 different defensive starters including linebacker A.J. Hawk (chest), tackle Ryan Pickett (hamstring) who have had to cope with significant injuries. The Packers offensive line is also unsettled as starting center Scott Wells (back) and rookie guard Josh Sitton (knee) have created some negative issues. Even star rusher Ryan Grant has missed time with a bad hamstring. Of course it was Grant who rushed for 956 yards last year even though not becoming a starter until midseason. He set a Packers playoff record with 201 yards on the ground in an opening round victory against Seattle. While I will admit that they Aaron Rodgers has to deal with some injury issues in his long awaited quarterback debut, the fact of the matter is that he is going to face a Minnesota defense that was ranked dead LAST in the league a year ago against the pass, permitting a startling average of 264 aerial yards per contest. That awful Minnesota pass defense has already taken a hit as newly acquired safety Madieu Williams has been lost for SIX weeks due to a neck injury. On the other side of the football, Minnesota quarterback Tavaris Jackson missed alot of preseason time due to injury which is bad news since YOUNG players like him need more preparation time than veterans. A year ago Jackson has threw more interceptions (12) than touchdown passes (9). He also had a subpar completion percentage (58.2) and passer rating (70.8). To make a long story short, Jackson's leaguewie quarterback ranking was way down at the #28 mark. I am aware that for the moment Vikings star rusher Adrian Peterson is healthy, but he gained only 157 total yards in two games against the Packers. For those of you who may not be aware, Green Bay has been one of the league's most productive teams where it counts as they have successfully COVERED the spread 13 times in the past 17 outings. I did some database research involving WEEK ONE of a brand new regular campaign and found that DIVISIONAL home favorites of 3-or-less points (Green Bay) have COVERED the spread at a 78-PERCENT clip (7-2 ATS) in week-one. Meanwhile opening week home favorites (Green Bay) who are going up against an opponent who is coming off a .500 season or better, have COVERED 60% of the time long term (30-20 ATS) in week-one. Thus we have both percenta ges and "value" on our side with the early evening home favorite

 

[the duke]

DCI

GREEN BAY 30, Minnesota 17
Denver 24, OAKLAND 23

 

[the duke]

Sports Reporter

newsletter

RECOMMENDED TOTAL

DENVER at OAKLAND UNDER 41.5

We all know Mike Shanahan has long held an axe to grind against Al Davis? skull for past transgressions, but does his team have the personnel to fulfill his blood grudge against the silver and black? Oakland experienced yet another offseason full of turmoil, but unquestionably upgraded their team. Coach Lane Kiffin finds himself with nothing to lose, knowing that if he is fired he will collect the full balance remaining on his contract ? giving him the rare freedom to do as he pleases without fear of reprisal. That might mean the traditionally high-flying Raiders run the ball more than most teams in the NFL, featuring great depth at running back, including top draft pick Darren McFadden ? this year?s version of Adrian Peterson. Denver is hoping to unveil a high-flying aerial attack to complement shaky depth at running back, but will be held back in the first game due to Brandon Marshall?s suspension and an improved Raiders? secondary. Will any of Denver?s slow-footed back-up receivers be able to find room to manuever against Nnamdi Asomugha and DeAngelo Hall? Look for a game decided on the ground and by the respective defenses. DENVER, 16-13

 

[the duke]

LT Profits

Minnesota Vikings +2.5

The Aaron Rodgers era begins for the Green Bay Packers tonight, but look for a very good Minnesota Vikings defense to make his debut as a starter unpleasant, and for a couple of turnovers to lead to a Vikings victory.

Yes, Rodgers did look good for the most part in the preseason, but remember after all that is was preseason. Moreover, the teams that Rodgers faced (Cincinnati, San Francisco, Denver) have trouble stopping teams in real games, let alone the vanilla preseason versions of their defenses, and the Packers are now facing a stout defense here.

In fact, given what happened to the New York Giants in the offseason and preseason, a solid case can be made that Minnesota now has the best defensive line in the NFL. We look for the new Purple People Eaters to spend quite a bit of time in the Green Bay backfield, and the jury is still out on whether or not Rodgers can handle that kind of pressure.

Now we are not expecting the Minnesota offense to be explosive by any means, especially with the mobility of Tarvaris Jackson limited by his MCL injury. However, Adrian Peterson by himself will probably be enough for the Vikings to score just enough points to get the win here, unless Rodgers exceeds our expectations in his first pro start.

The Vikings are probably the favorite to win the NFC North this season, and we look for them to take a step in that direction by going on the road an upending the reining division champs on the national TV stage.

Pick: Vikings +2.5


Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres Over 7.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers have suddenly won eight straight games after being left for dead following a 10-game losing streak less than two weeks ago, as Manny Ramirez has refused to let them die by carrying the offense.

The San Diego Padres scored 10 runs themselves yesterday, and they are very familiar with Greg Maddux, who was with San Diego until July and is starting for the Dodgers tonight. Given that Padres starter Cha Seung Baek is coming back to earth after a good start, we feel these teams should fly Over this low total with relative ease.

Baek has failed to record a Quality Start in his last three outings, posting a bloated 7.71 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 16.1 innings in the process. He faced these Dodgers just last week in Los Angeles, and the results were not pretty, as he was roughed up for seven earned runs and eight hits while lasting just 3.2 innings

Now normally, we like to take a long look at the opposite result of the first meeting when a pitcher faces the same team for the second time in less than a week, as baseball is about making the proper adjustments. However, the Dodgers are pummeling everyone right now, scoring at least five runs in every games of their eight-game winning streak, so we do not expect Baek to slow them down tonight either.

Now Maddux has not been great since putting on the Dodger uniform, with a 5.94 ERA and a very un-Maddux-like 1.50 WHIP in three starts for LA. He has also yet to six innings since coming over, so it is obvious that the sunset to a brilliant career is not too far off. It also does not help his cause that the Padres are actually hitting right-handers well lately, batting .281 against them over the past 10 games.

Now we are well aware of what a pitchers paradise this stadium is, but this still seems like a very low total when you consider the current state of both these starting pitchers and these offenses.

Pick: Dodgers, Padres Over 7.5

 

[the duke]

Dr Bob

Denver (-3.0) 23 OAKLAND 19
07:15 PM Pacific Time Monday, Sep-08

The Broncos out-gained their opponents 5.8 yards per play to 5.5 yppl and were +1 in turnover margin, yet somehow were out-scored by 5.6 points per game. With a good offense and a defense that should be improved the Broncos should go from a disappointing 7-9 to 9-7 or 10-6 this season. Quarterback Jay Cutler blossomed in his first full season as the starting quarterback, averaging 6.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback, and he should be at least as good this season once top target WR Brandon Marshall serves his one game suspension. The Broncos continued their tradition of finding running backs to fit their zone blocking scheme, as Selvin Young ran for 729 yards at 5.2 ypr while backing up a less effective Travis Henry (4.1 ypr), who is no longer with the team. Young will get the bulk of the carries this season and, while he probably won?t average 5.2 ypr again, he should have a very good season. The Broncos should once again average about 5.8 yppl on offense, which ranks them in the top 10 in the league.

While the offense should remain good, the defense is likely to go from poor to slightly better than average this season now that ineffective safeties John Lynch and Nick Ferguson are off the team. Lynch was a great player for many years, but his level of play dropped off severely last season against the pass (although his run defense was still good). Ferguson was replaced in the starting lineup in week 10 by Hamza Abdullah, who played exceptionally well as a starter and helped revive the Broncos? pass defense. Denver allowed 7.4 yards per pass play in their first 8 games with Ferguson at strong safety (against teams that would average 6.5 yppp against an average team), but the Broncos yielded just 5.5 yppp in their final 8 games (to teams that would average 5.7 yppp) in their final 8 games with Abdullah starting. Abdullah is a very fast safety and his presence in the lineup allowed cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Dre Bly to play more bump and run coverage rather than wasting their good man-to-man skills in zone defenses. I expect the Broncos to continue to defend the pass well with Abdullah at free safety. The run defense also got a little better over the second half of the season, but the Broncos were still 0.3 ypr worse than average against the run. That number should improve with Boss Bailey being signed to take the place of the ineffective Ian Gold at linebacker and having D.J. Williams move to the outside should also help the defense since he wasn?t big enough to defend the run well from the middle linebacker spot. Denver has the pieces to be a slightly better than average defense this season.

The Broncos had an off year in special teams, but I think they?ll be pretty good in that area this season with improved punting and much better kickoffs with Matt Prater booming the ball into the endzone. Prater also will be the field goal kicker, which is a negative, but his overall value should be positive. Denver is a better than average team that should be in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race.

The Raiders were just 4-12 last season and I don?t see too much improvement from them this season. Oakland had plenty of needs in the draft and running back was certainly not one of them with Justin Fargas coming off a good season and good depth behind him. I?m sure Darrin McFadden is going to be a great player, but giving the ball to McFadden instead of giving it to Fargas isn?t going to help the team as much as a run-stuffing defensive tackle or a good receiver would have. The Raiders certainly look like a very good running team, but quarterback JaMarcus Russell doesn?t appear ready to have success through the air, especially given his sorry receiving corps. Russell averaged only 4.6 yards per pass play on 72 pass plays last season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback) and he looked horrible in the preseason ? completing only 52% of his passes and averaging a pathetic 3.2 yards on 56 pass plays. Ronald Curry is a pretty reliable receiver, but Jevon Walker is well past his prime and signing him to a free agent deal looks like a waste of money. Walker averaged only 5.7 yards per pass thrown to him last season (horrible for a wide receiver) despite having a better than average quarterback in Denver. Walker spent most of the preseason simply going through the motions and dropping passes before finally catching a few in the 3rd preseason game. That 3rd preseason game is the one in which teams generally play their starters for at least the first half and the Raiders were shutout in that game 0-24 by Arizona ? which could be an omen of things to come this season. I expect the Raiders to have the worst pass attack in the NFL this season and their good running will not overcome that deficiency.

Oakland looks a lot like the 2006 version, which featured a horrible offense and a pretty good defense. The Raiders were bad defensively last season, allowing 5.9 yards per play to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team. The run defense was particularly bad, as Oakland gave up 5.0 ypr, but it should be improved this season with strong safety Gibril Wilson being brought in via free agency. Wilson was great in run support for the Giants last season and is a major upgrade over Michael Huff, who is being moved to his more natural free safety position. Huff?s move to free safety will help the pass defense, as he?ll be much better than Stuart Schweigert was after Schweighert gave up 12.0 yards per pass thrown to his man. Wilson is also pretty good in pass defense and bringing in DeAngelo Hall from Atlanta gives the Raiders a solid #2 cornerback to team with Nnamdi Asomugha, who is among the top 3 or 4 cornerbacks in the NFL. Asomugha only allowed 5.8 yards per pass attempted against him, which ranked 4th among cornerbacks last season, but teams simply threw away from his side of the field. With Hall (7.2 ypa allowed) taking over for Fabian Washington, who allowed 9.6 ypa, opposing teams won?t simply be able to throw away from Asomugha. The Raiders now have one of the NFL?s best secondaries and I expect their pass defense to go from bad to solidly better than average this season. The run defense will remain poor, but it should be much better than last season.

I rate the Raiders as the 3rd worst team in the NFL starting the season, but they could move up significantly if Russell can somehow find a way to move the ball through the air at a respectable rate.

My ratings favor Denver by 4 points in this game, so I?ll lean slightly with the Broncos at -3 or less.

GREEN BAY (-2.0) 21 Minnesota 19

04:00 PM Pacific Time Monday, Sep-08

There is a lot of excitement in Minnesota this summer, as fans anticipate what they believe will be a Vikings team that will make a run into the playoffs. Those fans are probably right, as the Vikes added All-Pro DE Jared Allen to an already star studded defensive line to make the Vikings defense amongst the best in the NFL. The Vikings have two of the league?s best defensive tackles in Pat Williams and Kevin Williams and teams have simply stopped trying to run the ball against them. Last season the Vikes allowed just 3.2 ypr and opponents only tried running the ball 35% of the time, which is well below the NFL average of 43% running plays. The pass defense was slightly worse than average, allowing 6.2 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average team, and Minnesota?s defense overall was only 0.2 yards per play better than average since teams threw the ball so often against them. To discourage teams from throwing so often the Vikings traded for Allen, who registered 15.5 sacks for Kansas City last season in just 12 games. With opposing teams having to worry about the two Williams? inside, Allen may see less double teaming and his sacks totals could be even better (especially if teams continue to average 43 pass plays per game against Minnesota. I actually don?t expect Allen?s sack rate to be as high as it was last season, but his sack total could be higher and his contribution to the pass defense should be about 0.4 yppp ? which would make the Vikings a better than average while also leading to more interceptions.

Minnesota?s offense revolves around second year back Adrian Peterson, who averaged an incredible 5.6 ypr while backup Chester Taylor ran for 848 yards at 5.4 ypr. I don?t expect either to keep up those high averages, but the Vikings should still average about 5 yards per rush this season. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson wasn?t asked to do much, but he posted pretty decent numbers for a first time starter, averaging 6.0 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB. Jackson should improve in his second full season as the starter and adding WR Bernard Berrian upgrades the receiving corps. Jackson needs to cut down on his interception rate, but it?s not a huge problem since the Vikings don?t throw the ball as much as most teams. Minnesota should once again be an above average offensive team, but I don?t think they?ll be quite as good as last year?s attack, which averaged 5.7 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl).

Minnesota was better than average in special teams last season, but they should probably regress towards the middle of the pack in that area this season. The Vikings were a better than average team last season and they?re likely to be even better in 2008 thanks to a defense that should be even better than last year?s fine unit.

The Packers start the post-Favre era with a huge Monday night clash with bitter rival Minnesota in Lambeau Field and it should be a fun game to watch. The Packers brass believes so much in Aaron Rodgers that they didn?t want Brett Favre back when he decided to un-retire, and Rodgers looked good last season against a very good Dallas defense (6.3 yards per pass play against a Dallas defense that would allow just 5.0 yppp at home to an average quarterback). Rodgers has also looked pretty sharp in the preseason, completing 68.5% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt on just 1 interception on 54 pass attempts. Rodgers does tend to hold onto the ball too long, which resulted in 3 sacks against Dallas last season and 7 sacks on 61 pass plays this summer, but I still rate the Packers? pass attack as better than average heading into the season with plenty of upside potential. The Packers averaged 4.7 ypr after Ryan Grant became the main running back in week 4 of last season, but his numbers will probably regress a bit with opponents more focused on him this season. The Packers were a very good offensive team last season, averaging 6.4 yards per play from week 4 on against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. I?ll rate the Packers at just 0.4 yppl better than average offensively to start this season, but I?m being conservative in rating Rodgers so they could easily be better.

The Packers? defense was only 0.2 yppl better than average last season (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and I actually think that unit could get a bit worse this season with an aging secondary and the loss of DT Corey Williams, who registered 7 sacks in limited action after taking over for an injured Johnny Jolly. Jolly doesn?t figure to provide the pass rush that Williams did and the pass defense could suffer some. The Packers should still be a bit better than average. Green Bay?s special teams should also be better than average again this season and I expect the Packers to win anywhere between 9 games and 11 games depending on how well Rodgers plays.

My rating favor the Packers by 2 ? points in this game, so I have no opinion on this game.

 

[the duke]

Alan Eastman write up


GB UNDER 38 500.00 -105

Neither of the quarterbacks on either side is anything to write home about so I see the defenses dictating the tempo in this one. Green Bay was an exceptional ?over? team last year and has gone ?over? in eight straight NFC games. But streaks like that generally don?t carry over into the following year. Also, the ?under? is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these two teams. Also, the ?under? is 15-6-1 in Minnesota?s last 22 games on grass.

 

[the duke]

Ken Jenkins

Hammered Totals at 62%
Cashed 67% of his NFL Bests in '07

NFL Mon
$25
Get The Outlaw's Min/GB Winner Monday Nite
Ken has been W2BO's best Low Volume NFL expert for the better part of a decade, and he is back to lay down his Blockbuster bets on the books for another seaosn. In the l,ast 8 years he has had only 1 losing season, and in 4 of them he hit better than 60%. Last season was another BIG one for Ken as he his Totals went 21-13 (62%), and he was 67% in Best Bets and 100% PERFECT in his Monday Night Football Bets.

NFL Mon: 110% Guaranteed Winning Mon Nite Football Side

GreenBay Packers

 

[the duke]

Charlies Sports

nfl.vikings @ packers under 38 (500*)
nfl. packers-2 (30*)
nfl. raiders+3 (20*)
nfl. broncos @ raider over 41 (20*)
mlb.cleveland-135 (10*)
mlb. angels-130. (10*) free play

 

[the duke]

WINNERS EDGE

MLB
T.B Rays + 180 , 1 unit
Arizona D-Backs + 150 , 1 unit
LA Angels - 130 , 1 unit


NFL
Vikings + 3 -120 , 2 units
Raiders + 3 , 1 unit

 

[the duke]

Will Cover

NFL for Monday Night Football, September 8th!

Packers/Vikings UNDER the TOTAL! 7pm EST ESPN-TV

COVER STORY: First of two games to kick off the MNF season and we see a relatively low-scoring affair in this Green Bay Packers/Minnesota Vikings affair. QB Rodgers makes his first start for the Pack after replacing the legendary Favre who now resides in the Big Apple. Inexperience and first game jitters should slow down this Packers offense under Rodgers who will be facing a fierce Minny defensive line. Vikes' QB Tavares also lacks experience and we expect him to struggle especially on the road at Green Bay, never an easy place to play. Defensive battle has us on the UNDER!

 

[the duke]

KELSO STURGEON

High Rollers MLB
10 units Phillies

Best Bets MLB
5 units Angels
3 units Indians

Best Bets NFL
5 units Vikings

 

[the duke]

Beat Your Bookie

MLB
100 Dodgers
50 Angels


NFL
100 Oakland
50 Minnesota