Sports Advisors
Minnesota at Green Bay
The post-Brett Favre era begins at Lambeau Field in Green Bay when the Packers host the rival Vikings in a season-opening battle between teams thinking they have a chance at the NFC North title.
Green Bay (13-3, 12-3-1 ATS in 2007) made it all the way to the NFC Championship Game last year, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants 23-20 in overtime as a nine-point favorite. Favre retired two months after the defeat before un-retiring in July and being traded to the Jets. That leaves the offense in the hands of Aaron Rodgers, the first quarterback since 1992 to start a game for the Packers other than Favre.
Rodgers has attempted just 59 passes in his career and has just one TD pass, but he?s got some weapons at WR in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings who both had more than 900 yards receiving a year ago with Jennings catching 12 TD passes. However, it?s the defense that could carry Mike McCarthy?s squad, led by defensive-line anchor Aaron Kampman whose 27? sacks is the most of the NFC in the last two seasons. Overall, the Packers? defense ranked second in the NFL last year, giving up 18.2 points a game.
The Vikings (8-8 SU, 7-7-2 ATS) struggled down the stretch last season, losing their final two games to the Redskins (32-21 as six-point favorites) and at Denver (22-19 in overtime as three-point favorites) to cost themselves a playoff spot. Those two losses followed a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS).
Minnesota certainly relies heavily on its defense and has added pro-bowler Jared Allen and his 15? sacks to the defensive line to go along with Kevin Williams and Pat Williams. Brad Childress? offense is led by third-year QB Tarvaris Jackson, who has thrown more INTs (16) than TDs (11) in his 14 career starts, and RB Adrian Peterson, who ran for 1,341 yards and 13 TDs in his rookie campaign last year.
Minnesota is on ATS runs of 11-5-1 against the NFC North rivals, 5-1 in season openers and 5-1-2 in September contests. Meanwhile, Green Bay is on ATS streaks of 16-5-1 overall, 13-6-1 on Mondays, 8-3 against division foes, 5-1 at home and 5-0 in September kickoffs.
Green Bay has won four straight over the Vikings (3-1 ATS) and seven of the last 10 series clashes (5-5 ATS). The underdog owns a 16-5 ATS advantage in this rivalry over the past decade and the road team has gone 10-2 ATS in the last 12. Last season at Lambeau, the Packers scored a 34-0 blowout victory as a 5?-point chalk. Finally, the straight-up winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 in this rivalry.
The under is 6-2-1 in Minnesota?s last nine on the road and 15-6-1 in its last 22 on grass. Meanwhile the over is 8-0 in the Packers? last eight against NFC competition and 14-3 in their last 17 overall. Lastly, the under is 5-1-1 in this rivalry the last three-plus seasons.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
Denver at Oakland
A classic AFC West rivalry is renewed on the opening Monday night when the Broncos pay a visit to McAfee Coliseum to take on the Raiders.
Denver (7-9, 5-11 ATS) started strong with consecutive victories last year, but then went on a five-game losing skid and failed to make the playoffs for the second straight season. Broncos? QB Jay Cutler completed 63.6 percent of his throws in his first full season running the offense and threw for 3,497 yards, 20 TDs and 14 INTs. The biggest change for Mike Shanahan?s squad is the on offensive line, as no starter from a season ago is back to block for RBs Selvin Young and Andre Hall.
Oakland (4-12, 6-10 ATS) endured its fifth consecutive losing campaign in 2007 and now has lost 61 games during this stretch that dates to their appearance in the 2002 Super Bowl. The Raiders will try to turn things around behind QB JaMarcus Russell, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft who takes over a sluggish offense. In his only start last season, Russell went 23-for-31 for 224 yards and a TD in the season finale against San Diego. In the backfield, coach Lane Kiffin has the choice of Justin Fargas (1,009 yards rushing last season) or dynamic rookie Darren McFadden.
The Broncos are on ATS slides of 7-19 overall, 2-10 against AFC West rivals, 0-4 on the highway and 0-4 in September games. Oakland also has been a betting disaster the last five years, sporting ATS skids of 26-54-1 overall, 19-40-1 against the AFC, 8-22 at home, 0-6 on Mondays and 5-11 in September.
These teams split their two matchups a season ago with the home team winning each. Oakland scored a 34-20 win over the Broncos as a 3?-point home ?dog in December. In fact, the Raiders are 4-0 ATS over the last two seasons against Denver, but they are just 2-8 SU (5-5 ATS) in the last 10, with the straight-up winner going 7-3 ATS in those 10 contests.
For Denver, the over is on runs of 19-7-1 overall, 9-2 against the AFC, 6-1 against the AFC West and 5-2 on the road. For Oakland, the over streaks include 6-1 overall, 4-1 against the AFC and 4-0 in September, but the under is 13-5 in the Raiders? last 18 against AFC West rivals. Also, the under is 6-1 in the Raiders? last seven Monday Night appearances, 5-1 in Denver?s last six on Mondays and 9-4 in the past 13 meetings between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER