Ben Burns
NFL
BALTIMORE (+17 or better)
Game: New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens Game Time: 12/3/2007 8:30:00 PM Prediction: Baltimore Ravens Reason: I'm taking the points with BALTIMORE. The Eagles showed that the Patriots could be beaten, at least vs. the pointspread. Like the Eagles, the Ravens aren't your typical sub-500 team. They won the division last year, have a coach who has won the Super Bowl and have a winning record at home. That being said, I expect Billick's crew to play with a lot of pride this evening. This team is better than their record indicates and they virtually never get blown out here. In fact, I looked through the database at the Raven's last 25 home games and found that they've gone 19-6 and that NONE of the losses came by more than 17 points. Although the playoffs are a writeoff, the Ravens could really salvage their season by handing the Patriots their first loss. While this is arguably Baltimore's biggest remaining game, the Patriots have a big game vs. the Steelers on deck. The Ravens are well aware of the fact that they're such large underdogs and I expect it to be a positive motivator. As Ravens' receiver Derrick Mason said: "We could have been 100-point underdogs. It doesn't matter to me. I know a lot of people figure we should just pack it up and not go out there and play. But we're a football team just like they're a football team. I feel that if we go out there and do what we need to do and don't turn the ball over, then we have a good shot of winning this game." The Ravens are 16-4 SU and 13-7 ATS their last 20 home games in the month of December and I look for them to give the Pats a much tougher game than expected. *Main Event
NBA
BULLS (+2 or better)
Game: Dallas Mavericks vs. Chicago Bulls Game Time: 12/3/2007 8:35:00 PM Prediction: Chicago Bulls Reason: I'll gladly take the points with CHICAGO. However, I expect the Bulls to win tonight's game outright. The Mavericks, who have big games vs. San Antonio, Denver and Utah on deck, have been struggling lately. They lost their last game 112-101 at New Orleans and are now an ugly 0-6 ATS (2-4 SU) their last six games. Three of those games came against Eastern Conference teams and the Mavs lost all three games outright. Conversely, the Bulls come in playing improved basketball, having won two straight games by double-digits. Last season's game here had a similar pointspread (Mavs were favored by -3.5) and the Bulls won outright by 11 points. Note that while the Bulls are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they were underdogs of four points or less, the Mavs are 2-5 ATS when favored by four points or less. The Bulls can take a lot of positives from their last win. Ben Gordon and Luol Deng each shot 13-for-21, with Gordon scoring 34 and Deng 29 -- both season highs. Perhaps more importantly, Ben Wallace recorded his first "double-double" of the season, scoring 10 points while grabbing a whopping 19 boards. Look for the Mavs' recent struggles vs. teams from the East to continue as the Bulls build momentum and earn their third straight win.
NCAA BB
MISSOURI STATE (+9 or better)
Game: Missouri St. vs. Arkansas Game Time: 12/3/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Missouri St. Reason: I'm taking the points with MISSOURI STATE. Arkansas is one of the best teams in the SEC and comes in having won four straight games. However, the Bears are again one of the best teams in the always competitive Missouri Valley Conference. Like the Razaorbacks, the Bears have also won four straight games. After knocking off a solid St. Louis team, the Bears defeated Winthrop on the road. They've got the talent and the experience necessary to score the upset tonight and I expect them to enter the game as a confident group. As one of the most consistent programs in the Valley, the Bears have typically thrived as road underdogs of this size. In fact, they're a profitable 8-2 ATS the last 10 times they were listed as road underdogs in the 9.5 to 12 range. During the same stretch, the Razorbacks were a money-burning 3-7-1 ATS when listed as home favorites in the same range. It should also be noted that none of the Razorbacks last four wins has come by more than a dozen points, despite two of those games (Oral Roberts and Delaware State) not even having pointspreads! While the Razorbacks played on Saturday, the Bears haven't played since 11/25. Some teams tend to become a bit rusty after an extended layoff. However, under Coach Hinson the Bears haven't been one of them. In fact, they're an impressive 15-3 SU (11-4 ATS!) the last 18 times that they played with seven or more day's rest in between games. These teams played a close one against each other in 2005, with the Razorbacks winning by three points. I expect tonight's game to come down to the wire once again. *Annihilator
NHL
ISLANDERS
Game: Boston Bruins vs. New York Islanders Game Time: 12/3/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: New York Islanders Reason: I'm laying the price with the NY ISLANDERS. Home ice has meant a great deal to both of these teams so far this season. The Bruins are 7-3 vs. the moneyline at home but just 6-8 on the road. Meanwhile, the Islanders are 4-6 on the road but a healthy 9-5 at home. Therefore, its no real surprise that the home team has won both meetings in this series so far. The Bruins won 2-1 at Boston on 11/23 and the Islanders returned the favor on Long Island the following night, winning by an identical 2-1 score. That victory brought the Isles to a perfect 5-0 the last five home series meetings and 6-0-4 (six wins, four ties) the last 10. Its also worth noting that the Bruins are playing their fifth straight road game. Conversely, the Islanders have only played one "road" game in their past six games and didn't involve any travel as it came vs. the Rangers. While the Bruins and Islanders currently have very similar records, I feel the the Islanders are the more talented team with both a goaltending edge and a coaching edge. By the end of the season, I fully expect them to finish ahead of the Bruins in the standings. Look for them to be the stronger team tonight as they overtake Boston in the conference standings and continue their home ice series dominance. *Best Bet
NFL
BALTIMORE (+17 or better)
Game: New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens Game Time: 12/3/2007 8:30:00 PM Prediction: Baltimore Ravens Reason: I'm taking the points with BALTIMORE. The Eagles showed that the Patriots could be beaten, at least vs. the pointspread. Like the Eagles, the Ravens aren't your typical sub-500 team. They won the division last year, have a coach who has won the Super Bowl and have a winning record at home. That being said, I expect Billick's crew to play with a lot of pride this evening. This team is better than their record indicates and they virtually never get blown out here. In fact, I looked through the database at the Raven's last 25 home games and found that they've gone 19-6 and that NONE of the losses came by more than 17 points. Although the playoffs are a writeoff, the Ravens could really salvage their season by handing the Patriots their first loss. While this is arguably Baltimore's biggest remaining game, the Patriots have a big game vs. the Steelers on deck. The Ravens are well aware of the fact that they're such large underdogs and I expect it to be a positive motivator. As Ravens' receiver Derrick Mason said: "We could have been 100-point underdogs. It doesn't matter to me. I know a lot of people figure we should just pack it up and not go out there and play. But we're a football team just like they're a football team. I feel that if we go out there and do what we need to do and don't turn the ball over, then we have a good shot of winning this game." The Ravens are 16-4 SU and 13-7 ATS their last 20 home games in the month of December and I look for them to give the Pats a much tougher game than expected. *Main Event
NBA
BULLS (+2 or better)
Game: Dallas Mavericks vs. Chicago Bulls Game Time: 12/3/2007 8:35:00 PM Prediction: Chicago Bulls Reason: I'll gladly take the points with CHICAGO. However, I expect the Bulls to win tonight's game outright. The Mavericks, who have big games vs. San Antonio, Denver and Utah on deck, have been struggling lately. They lost their last game 112-101 at New Orleans and are now an ugly 0-6 ATS (2-4 SU) their last six games. Three of those games came against Eastern Conference teams and the Mavs lost all three games outright. Conversely, the Bulls come in playing improved basketball, having won two straight games by double-digits. Last season's game here had a similar pointspread (Mavs were favored by -3.5) and the Bulls won outright by 11 points. Note that while the Bulls are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they were underdogs of four points or less, the Mavs are 2-5 ATS when favored by four points or less. The Bulls can take a lot of positives from their last win. Ben Gordon and Luol Deng each shot 13-for-21, with Gordon scoring 34 and Deng 29 -- both season highs. Perhaps more importantly, Ben Wallace recorded his first "double-double" of the season, scoring 10 points while grabbing a whopping 19 boards. Look for the Mavs' recent struggles vs. teams from the East to continue as the Bulls build momentum and earn their third straight win.
NCAA BB
MISSOURI STATE (+9 or better)
Game: Missouri St. vs. Arkansas Game Time: 12/3/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Missouri St. Reason: I'm taking the points with MISSOURI STATE. Arkansas is one of the best teams in the SEC and comes in having won four straight games. However, the Bears are again one of the best teams in the always competitive Missouri Valley Conference. Like the Razaorbacks, the Bears have also won four straight games. After knocking off a solid St. Louis team, the Bears defeated Winthrop on the road. They've got the talent and the experience necessary to score the upset tonight and I expect them to enter the game as a confident group. As one of the most consistent programs in the Valley, the Bears have typically thrived as road underdogs of this size. In fact, they're a profitable 8-2 ATS the last 10 times they were listed as road underdogs in the 9.5 to 12 range. During the same stretch, the Razorbacks were a money-burning 3-7-1 ATS when listed as home favorites in the same range. It should also be noted that none of the Razorbacks last four wins has come by more than a dozen points, despite two of those games (Oral Roberts and Delaware State) not even having pointspreads! While the Razorbacks played on Saturday, the Bears haven't played since 11/25. Some teams tend to become a bit rusty after an extended layoff. However, under Coach Hinson the Bears haven't been one of them. In fact, they're an impressive 15-3 SU (11-4 ATS!) the last 18 times that they played with seven or more day's rest in between games. These teams played a close one against each other in 2005, with the Razorbacks winning by three points. I expect tonight's game to come down to the wire once again. *Annihilator
NHL
ISLANDERS
Game: Boston Bruins vs. New York Islanders Game Time: 12/3/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: New York Islanders Reason: I'm laying the price with the NY ISLANDERS. Home ice has meant a great deal to both of these teams so far this season. The Bruins are 7-3 vs. the moneyline at home but just 6-8 on the road. Meanwhile, the Islanders are 4-6 on the road but a healthy 9-5 at home. Therefore, its no real surprise that the home team has won both meetings in this series so far. The Bruins won 2-1 at Boston on 11/23 and the Islanders returned the favor on Long Island the following night, winning by an identical 2-1 score. That victory brought the Isles to a perfect 5-0 the last five home series meetings and 6-0-4 (six wins, four ties) the last 10. Its also worth noting that the Bruins are playing their fifth straight road game. Conversely, the Islanders have only played one "road" game in their past six games and didn't involve any travel as it came vs. the Rangers. While the Bruins and Islanders currently have very similar records, I feel the the Islanders are the more talented team with both a goaltending edge and a coaching edge. By the end of the season, I fully expect them to finish ahead of the Bruins in the standings. Look for them to be the stronger team tonight as they overtake Boston in the conference standings and continue their home ice series dominance. *Best Bet
